MLS is getting it all wrong

[ZooCougar]

According to this guy. Stefan Szymanski is a British born Economics who is at the University of Michigan. He co-wrote the book "Soccernomics" with Simon Kuper.

This is a good read if you are interested

Basically he says that MLS's closed system with a salary cap and single entity will ensure that it remains "Minor League Soccer". MLS's system mimics the business models established by the NFL, MLB, NBA and NHL but the only reasons it works for those leagues is that they don't have any real competition.

Other points

-Most (90%)MLS revenue comes from gate receipts which is a terrible. The biggest leagues make all of their money via TV. MLS is not a TV product. Even the EPL's old deal with US broadcasters was worth three times as much as what MLS's new deal is worth. ($90 mil a year).

-Teams with bigger payrolls tend to win more. Therefore the leagues with the biggest payrolls are the best.

-Says that current CBA bickering that is really about Free Agency, Single Entity and the Salary Cap is like saying "I've got to walk from New York to San Francisco," and arguing over whether they should take Broadway or 5th Avenue. "Which is going to get me there fastest?"

Part I

http://www.hudsonriverblue.com/2015...omics-stefan-szymanski-talks-dollars-data-mls

Part II

http://www.hudsonriverblue.com/2015/2/26/8112489/exclusive-stefan-szymanski-of-soccernomics-part-2

 

[kibblesnbits]

That was a waste of time. He has stunningly concluded that you need massive amounts of money to compete as a true "major league" in soccer on a worldwide scale. Just looking at transfer fees and salaries in Europe makes that readily apparent. In the major European nations the national soccer league has mindshare that's roughly equivalent to the NFL and MLB combined here in the U.S. There's no team sport that even comes close. Our situation is different. Big surprise.

 

[ZooCougar]

That was a waste of time. He has stunningly concluded that you need massive amounts of money to compete as a true "major league" in soccer on a worldwide scale. Just looking at transfer fees and salaries in Europe makes that readily apparent. In the major European nations the national soccer league has mindshare that's roughly equivalent to the NFL and MLB combined here in the U.S. There's no team sport that even comes close. Our situation is different. Big surprise.

Don Garber says that MLS wants to be included as one of the top leagues in the world by 2022. If what this guy is saying is correct then the league will fall short of that goal.

I do think that if MLS were to somehow find the resources to spend like the Big 5 Leagues in Europe it perhaps wouldn't best serve the American game. The end result would be less American players in the league and they would get shoved down into the lower divisions.

At the same time the global nature of the sport hurts MLS's prospects for growth. EPL is the most watched league in the US. It gets better ratings than the NHL. If the standard of play doesn't improve then MLS will continue to play a lesser in it's own country.

What does that mean to me? Not much. I'll still go to the games a couple times a month and enjoy myself. It's way better than it was since 2009. But I really have no desire to watch a dog like San Jose against Colorado. That stuff is unwatchable.

I think there is a middle ground between what Szymanski is saying and the rut MLS continues to want to stay in. The league needs free agency and a bigger cap to allow some super clubs emerge. That's the only way they have any hope of national viewership improving.

 

[UCFBfan]

I think the national viewership is the biggest issue. You'll have your fans attend and that's great but if they don't improve the product on the field they'll never grow interest and get a big TV deal. I know soccer is still small in popularity but it's growing and MLS has the ability to fill the gap from the end and start of European soccer. The only thing competing against it is baseball. That's not much.

However, I know every season I get excited to want to get hooked because usually the EPL season is ending and I wanna watch more soccer. However, I turn on a game and it's dreadful.

Until they start bringing in higher level players, the league is gonna stink. I'm not saying they need to be on par with the big leagues in Europe but they need to compete and rise above the mid tier leagues in Europe in regards to getting talent. The DP shouldn't be something that's basically reserved for European players in their twilight. That was great 5 years ago. They need to take the next step and use that DP spot (s) for talent that is in it's prime.

Improve the product and land that TV deal. Until thrn, no one will be watching casually.

 

[kibblesnbits]

I guess it comes down to the definition of "top leagues." After all, the International League and Pacific Coast Leagues (AAA) are arguably the 3rd or 4th best baseball leagues in the world. Similarly, MLS is probably one of the top 20 soccer leagues in the world, but that, IMHO, doesn't make them a top league. There are about a half-dozen leagues that stand out and get the top players (EPL, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, La Liga, etc.) and, no matter how much effort Garber puts into PR, there's not a snowball's chance in hell that MLS is joining that truly elite group in my lifetime. MLS would probably be considered wildly successful from a competitive/artistic standpoint, if they can eventually be on the level of the 2nd tier European Leagues (Belgium, Netherlands, et al). They would still lose premier players to the big leagues with virtually unlimited dollars, but it would be an indication of a high level of play that could continue to grow the fan base for the foreseeable future.

 

[ZooCougar]

I guess it comes down to the definition of "top leagues." After all, the International League and Pacific Coast Leagues (AAA) are arguably the 3rd or 4th best baseball leagues in the world. Similarly, MLS is probably one of the top 20 soccer leagues in the world, but that, IMHO, doesn't make them a top league. There are about a half-dozen leagues that stand out and get the top players (EPL, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, La Liga, etc.) and, no matter how much effort Garber puts into PR, there's not a snowball's chance in hell that MLS is joining that truly elite group in my lifetime. MLS would probably be considered wildly successful from a competitive/artistic standpoint, if they can eventually be on the level of the 2nd tier European Leagues (Belgium, Netherlands, et al). They would still lose premier players to the big leagues with virtually unlimited dollars, but it would be an indication of a high level of play that could continue to grow the fan base for the foreseeable future.

At the rate the sport is growing here, anything less then top 10 in then 10 years would be a failure. Not being connected to UEFA will make Top 5 really impossible.

 

[UCFBfan]

I guess it comes down to the definition of "top leagues." After all, the International League and Pacific Coast Leagues (AAA) are arguably the 3rd or 4th best baseball leagues in the world. Similarly, MLS is probably one of the top 20 soccer leagues in the world, but that, IMHO, doesn't make them a top league. There are about a half-dozen leagues that stand out and get the top players (EPL, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, La Liga, etc.) and, no matter how much effort Garber puts into PR, there's not a snowball's chance in hell that MLS is joining that truly elite group in my lifetime. MLS would probably be considered wildly successful from a competitive/artistic standpoint, if they can eventually be on the level of the 2nd tier European Leagues (Belgium, Netherlands, et al). They would still lose premier players to the big leagues with virtually unlimited dollars, but it would be an indication of a high level of play that could continue to grow the fan base for the foreseeable future.

Belgium, Netherlands, etc were the leagues I were thinking of when I said that MLS needs to be beating those leagues out or at least competing with them in the transfer market. I agree that they will never be in the Top 5 but Top 10 should be a goal.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

One way to solve MLS's financial problems, get a few rich oil sheiks to buy into MLS. Worked pretty well for Man City, Chelsea, PSG, etc.

 

[ZooCougar]

One way to solve MLS's financial problems, get a few rich oil sheiks to buy into MLS. Worked pretty well for Man City, Chelsea, PSG, etc.

Well one did buy in. Sheik Mansour of Man City fame.

The rich arabs who own the Cosmos have no interest in MLS's structure.