Let's Talk Iowa State...

[Onions]

I didn't even say that. I was responding to onion saying ISU doesn't have a chance without Niang. !!

To be fair, I didn't say that. I said if Uconn brings their "A" game, they will win. Under the present circumstances I believe that to be true. I'm not expecting anything other than a nail biter, I'm expecting both teams to play well, but playing at the Garden in front of what will be a near home crowd against a short handed team and with the best single player on the floor, I expect Uconn will win. I'll put it another way - If ISU scores 85 or more in regulation then I'd guess they'd win. 78 -84 is a toss up. Anything below that and Uconn wins. Also if it goes to OT Uconn wins (Bazz factor.) Now I've also gone on record as saying that I thought Cinci beating Harvard was one of the surest bets outside of the 1-16 games, so I've proven the fallibility of my predictions. But I believe what I believe. Can't wait till Friday.

 

[tzznandrew]

did you have those convos with ISU fans two years ago?

Yup. We thought the game would be close, but that Royce White would be a major mismatch. We tried to talk about how good Andre Drummond could be, how he was an inconsistent athletic freak who could make a difference, and how Lamb and Napier on the perimeter were solid, and that the team was the defending champs. We were told how Andre Drummond wasn't nearly as good as we were saying, and that we would get our @sses kicked.

To be fair, we got our @sses kicked. And Drummond played terrible. But, I think you can see now that Drummond could have made a difference.

And I'll say this: the big point forward like Royce White kills us. Historically always has. Even in this tournament, Temple's Kanacevic was a big reason for their early lead. It sounds like Niang had offense run through him a lot (didn't always get assists, but initiators often don't). His absense feels serious for this reason: it makes your team more conventional. Doesn't mean your team can't win. It's going to be a tough game. But I like our chances much more without Niang than with him...and that's a shame for your team, because we know how much it sucks to lose a key player on a team that could have been great or gone on a longer run (2000, 2008, 2009).

 

[Onions]

It sounds like Niang had offense run through him a lot (didn't always get assists, but initiators often don't). His absense feels serious for this reason: it makes your team more conventional. Doesn't mean your team can't win. It's going to be a tough game. But I like our chances much more without Niang than with him..

Exactly.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

What I remember most about the game two years ago was our continually allowing White to bring the ball up while building a head of steam. We never had anyone within 20 feet of him until he was two strides past midcourt and by then there was no way to slow him down shy of standing in front of a freight train, getting called for a blocking foul while being steamrolled.

That team (us) had little chemistry and the only upperclassman was too busy pouting about the fact that we had a stud (who was too much of a neophyte to consistently offer much) who played the same position to show any leadership. AO refused to coexist with AD when they were on the court and spent every minute he was on the bench (instead of AD) with a chip on his shoulder. If he had transfered out (like his buddy Jamal Coombs-McDaniel) after the title run we would have been a far better team solely because there wouldn't have been that attitude issue.

 

[storrsroars]

What I remember most about the game two years ago was our continually allowing White to bring the ball up while building a head of steam. We never had anyone within 20 feet of him until he was two strides past midcourt and by then there was no way to slow him down shy of standing in front of a freight train, getting called for a blocking foul while being steamrolled.

That's what Nolan is for!

Three things concern me about this game:
- our propensity to start slow
- our propensity to toss up stupid 3s when behind instead of looking for the extra pass
- their propensity to close strong (their FG/FT %s in final minutes are insane)

I'm hoping to see ISU miss a bunch of bunnies a la Nova & Cincy due to Brimah/Daniels exerting their presence.

Conversely, I expect Hoiberg to try and get Brimah in foul trouble early.

So far, the only coach who has clearly out-coached KO has been Pitino. And because of Ville's system and talent level, it's been difficult for KO to counterpunch with his assets. I think Hoiberg has that capability, but the talent levels are more equal w/o Niang.

It'll be up to KO to quickly identify what Hoiberg is doing and adjust. I expect a lot of time outs and a lot of wax board. And Bazz is going to need every bit of his crazy basketball IQ to be in the right place, all the time.

 

[tzznandrew]

So far, the only coach who has clearly out-coached KO has been Pitino.

I'd throw in Larry Brown. No good reason we should have lost twice to SMU. And I wouldn't be ashamed of being outcoached by either. Larry Brown has 1 NBA Championship, 1 NCAA championship, and an additional Final Four and NBA Finals. Clearly one of the best coaches of all time...and unlike some other very obviously great coaches, Brown likes taking over projects.

 

[August_West]

So far, the only coach who has clearly out-coached KO has been Pitino.

.

To be fair (and I LOVE KO as our coach). Larry Brown schooled him too. Especially in Storrs. Can't hold that against KO though. Larry Brown will do that to many coaches, and KO holds his own and is only getting better.

 

[August_West]

I'd throw in Larry Brown. No good reason we should have lost twice to SMU. And I wouldn't be ashamed of being outcoached by either. Larry Brown has 1 NBA Championship, 1 NCAA championship, and an additional Final Four and NBA Finals. Clearly one of the best coaches of all time...and unlike some other very obviously great coaches, Brown likes taking over projects.

ha, great minds. ;-) Didnt see your post before mine.

 

[caw]

One of the things I find with fans who have never experienced any meaningful success with their program is that they don't understand what it takes. The teams at this level are so good that any weakness gets exploited. Even the bonehead coaches can come up with good game plans if given 4 days to prepare for 1 game.

Niang is a huge loss. If UConn had lost Daniels, we would be suicidal on this board, and we have a lot of depth. The Iowa State fans are acting like losing Niang is no big deal on a team that is short to begin with and only plays 7 guys.

I am not saying UConn is guaranteed to win, but I like our hand a lot better than I like Iowa State's right now. UConn fans have been here before, and know what it takes. We know when UConn is winning with mirrors (2002, 1991), we know when the team is a year away (1998, 2003), and we know when the team is really good (1990, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1999, 2006, 2009, 2011). We also know that even when the team is really good, it can still lose.

We also know when the team has taken an insurmountable body blow from an injury (2000, 2008). It sure feels like Iowa State is in that situation right now. Maybe the Cyclone guards are that good that they can compensate for the loss of Niang, but I have a hard time seeing how a team that lost one of its 3 best players doesn't get worse.

I agree with you on this, but when talking about ISU as a championship contender. I would be shocked if they won the whole thing. I do think they have a good shot at beating UConn without Niang. I also think UConn could have beaten ISU even with Niang. He's very good but he's not Lebron or Durant.

 

[Leebo]

Kenpom has this game as a coin toss without factoring in the loss of Niang. It's hard to imagine the team would be better without him, so the question is just how much worse are they? Even if it's only a little, UConn already had a good chance to win. Better odds than kenpom gave for the Nova game.

 

[MileHighFish]

I a

Their transition defense has never been good under Roy Williams…….no discredit to Iowa State but check the history. This isn't rocket science, they put up a good front on the perimeter, let players leak and try to block and then run out themselves. Roy's defensive strategy is nearly non-existent at UNC……..actually his career. This is not saying you won't score 80-90 vs UConn, but your guys will work harder getting there for sure and shoot real damn good too!

i can agree with you in all points. UConn is a much, much better defensive team than UNC no doubt. I read into the original post a little too much and took it more as a back handed complimented to ISU instead of taking at its face value.

 

[tazclone]

One of the things I find with fans who have never experienced any meaningful success with their program is that they don't understand what it takes. The teams at this level are so good that any weakness gets exploited. Even the bonehead coaches can come up with good game plans if given 4 days to prepare for 1 game.

Niang is a huge loss. If UConn had lost Daniels, we would be suicidal on this board, and we have a lot of depth. The Iowa State fans are acting like losing Niang is no big deal on a team that is short to begin with and only plays 7 guys.

I am not saying UConn is guaranteed to win, but I like our hand a lot better than I like Iowa State's right now. UConn fans have been here before, and know what it takes. We know when UConn is winning with mirrors (2002, 1991), we know when the team is a year away (1998, 2003), and we know when the team is really good (1990, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1999, 2006, 2009, 2011). We also know that even when the team is really good, it can still lose.

We also know when the team has taken an insurmountable body blow from an injury (2000, 2008). It sure feels like Iowa State is in that situation right now. Maybe the Cyclone guards are that good that they can compensate for the loss of Niang, but I have a hard time seeing how a team that lost one of its 3 best players doesn't get worse.

1. The fans don't play the game and in 2012 we heard a lot of the same things from UConn fans about how they would dominate ISU. How ISU fans aren't knowledgable, etc. ISU is a very knowledgeable basketball school. This isn't some made up comment from ISU fans. The fans are well known for being some of the best and understanding the game. I realize we aren't Duke, Kansas, UConn, Syracuse but that doesn't really matter when understanding a sport. And ISU fans are normally pretty realistic. We knew that the 2001 team was ovrrated and would bow out early(not lose to a 15) We knew the 2000 team was a final four National Championship caliber team. We ain't ignant hicks.
2. No one, including myself, thinks losing Niang is no big deal. Onions said it would kill us and we can't replace his production. I have pointed out that we did replace his production in the last game. That is all I was pointing out. Onions stated if UConn brings it's A Game it is their game to lose. I disagree. IF ISU bring's it's A Game, they can replace Niang's production. Unfortunately, it takes a lot more for 3 guys to bring their A game than just one and the chances of that are much slimmer. Cyclone fans realize that
3. In your knowledge of been there done that, is this UConn team for real? Are they winning with Mirrors? Or are they for real? I ask this because I keep hearing about how key players are inconcsistent. Or things like...if we bring our A Game. Or if the right Daniels shows up.

 

[MileHighFish]

Kenpom has this game as a coin toss without factoring in the loss of Niang. It's hard to imagine the team would be better without him, so the question is just how much worse are they? Even if it's only a little, UConn already had a good chance to win. Better odds than kenpom gave for the Nova game.

I am frankly surprised UConn isn't favored fwiw. The loss of niang hurts and having to have 3 players to pick up the slack for 1 player should tell all how valuable Niang is to the team. Injuries happen (as UConn fans are all too familiar with). Interested to see how Hoiberg adjusts the game plan after having a longer period vs the 24 hours before the UNC game. Going to be a good one no doubt! Best of luck!

 

[tazclone]

Well if you get a do over on your two games against Baylor and WV, we get to drop Louisville from our schedule and then see what our numbers would be like. Brimah is the most interesting piece to the chess match between the teams - can we force you to play with Edozie because of Brimah or can you force us to go small and play Daniels at the 5. Ollie is pretty comfortable with the small lineup and then we get both teams where all 5 players can shoot from 3. As for free throws, there have been any number of teams we have played that had bad free throw numbers and then stepped up and hit them when playing us -- St. Jo's being the latest instance. We need to work on our free throw defense.

Edozie won't play because of Brimah. Edozie will play to give Hogue and Ejim breaks. Hogue and Ejim are better defenders, rebounders and definitely scoreres.

 

[aboogieee]

Wow! I knew Ames, Iowa was interesting but not 9 page thread interesting!

 

[MileHighFish]

That's what Nolan is for!

Three things concern me about this game:
- our propensity to start slow
- our propensity to toss up stupid 3s when behind instead of looking for the extra pass
- their propensity to close strong (their FG/FT %s in final minutes are insane)

I'm hoping to see ISU miss a bunch of bunnies a la Nova & Cincy due to Brimah/Daniels exerting their presence.

Conversely, I expect Hoiberg to try and get Brimah in foul trouble early.

So far, the only coach who has clearly out-coached KO has been Pitino. And because of Ville's system and talent level, it's been difficult for KO to counterpunch with his assets. I think Hoiberg has that capability, but the talent levels are more equal w/o Niang.

It'll be up to KO to quickly identify what Hoiberg is doing and adjust. I expect a lot of time outs and a lot of wax board. And Bazz is going to need every bit of his crazy basketball IQ to be in the right place, all the time.

Good post! Fwiw, ISU has been well known for slow starts as well so the first 5 or 6 minutes could be very critical to the outcome of the game. ISU also has had game where they do miss a lot of bunnies...

The Cyclone offense has basically removed the mid range jump shot from their playbook. Close range, driving shots and 3's make up the vast majority of their attempts. If UConn is able to close off the interior w their bigs and ISU can't hit their 3's, it could be a long night....

 

[Marat]

Wow! I knew Ames, Iowa was interesting but not 9 page thread interesting!

It's been a long week and Friday night can't get here fast enough!

 

[tazclone]

To be fair, I didn't say that. I said if Uconn brings their "A" game, they will win. Under the present circumstances I believe that to be true. I'm not expecting anything other than a nail biter, I'm expecting both teams to play well, but playing at the Garden in front of what will be a near home crowd against a short handed team and with the best single player on the floor, I expect Uconn will win. I'll put it another way - If ISU scores 85 or more in regulation then I'd guess they'd win. 78 -84 is a toss up. Anything below that and Uconn wins. Also if it goes to OT Uconn wins (Bazz factor.) Now I've also gone on record as saying that I thought Cinci beating Harvard was one of the surest bets outside of the 1-16 games, so I've proven the fallibility of my predictions. But I believe what I believe. Can't wait till Friday.

To quote you

Under the present circumstances this game is Ucon's to win or lose. If we bring our "A" game there is nothing ISU can do to beat us.

I apologize if i misinterpreted that.

And to be clear, Niang will be missed. It will take 3-4 guys to replace his production. They did that aginst UNC but can they do it two games in a row? That remains to be seen. The only point I was trying to make is IF they can then this team will be a very tough out.

 

[tazclone]

To be fair, I think most of the Uconn fans have great respect for Iowa States team. There is great respect for your coach here, which is unusual for us as we don't respect very many opposing coaches. Most think the game will be close.
even after your losing Niang, another sign of respect considering his numbers. As fans. most of us of course think our team will win and we gravitate to the reasons for that in a discussion board. However, we have been pretty objective about our weaknesses both here and on your board, pointing out areas where we feel you have the mismatch advantage, deficiencies in our players, etc. I think where it starts to break down is when we run into a group of fans (not all but many) that discuss their team in such a way that they come across as invincible. Lost a 16 point scorer? No problem, the subs will make it up. The opposing teams have similar statistics, albeit reversed (kenpom offense/defense)? Well they played worse competition (despite factors to reflect that in the statistics). This goes on and on with some to the point it is obvious that discussion loses its benefit. I think this discussion was going quite well until the point that it became unbelievable to us was when it was said that losing Niang would have no effect on your team.

I apologize if I came across that way. That was not my intent and I was just showing how ISU replaced Niang in the UNC game. I figured the fact that three players had to step up their game to replace Niang speaks for his importance.

I have said all along this will be a great game. UConn reminds me a lot of OSU and OU. OSU/ISU played OT both times including a triple OT and ISU split with OU.

FWIW- Niang never saw any of the OT against OSU. He fouled out in regulation both games.

 

[tazclone]

Ejim is an i pressive player; powerful, tenacious, skilled and has a good shoooting touch but wow it surely doesn't look like TCU was making any significant defensive effort!

TCU is very bad. very very bad

 

[tazclone]

Wait. Did you intentionally ignore the post I responding to or are you really just a moron?

Did not ignore what you were responding to. I doubt there was a lot of disrespect in 1999 on message boards considering The Boneyard was new in 1998. Probably a little more in 2004 and 2011. That and besides those three years, it looks like opposing teams fans were correct

 

[Hume]

1. 
   [ ]In your knowledge of been there done that, is this UConn team for real? Are they winning with Mirrors? Or are they for real? I ask this because I keep hearing about how key players are inconcsistent. Or things like...if we bring our A Game. Or if the right Daniels shows up.

I guess that depends on what you define as for real. This team does not match our 1999 or 2004 championship teams. Whether it is comparable to our 2011 team is a subject of debate. To be honest our 2011 team went on a great run at the end so that for a good part of the Big East season the 2011 team wasn't as good as the team that went into the Big East and NCAA tournament. Because of this we are not sure of how high our potential is. Going in to the tournament most would have been happy making the sweet 16. After the brackets were made some thought there was an outside shot of making the elite 8 or possibly considering where we were playing the final 4. Although not many believed that. This team has some matchup problems with certain teams that we would have trouble beating (see Louisville). Daniels finished last year in such a way that we thought he would be a monster. But he started this year slow, and was just starting to regain that play when a minor injury seemed to push him back. The past few games he is once again exhibiting the Daniels we thought we were going to have all year. So I am not sure any of us are 100% positive whether Daniels continues on that path or he reverts. Bazz has been amazing, but for a few weeks prior to the tournament he was battling a finger injury and his shooting was only human, as such his percentages suffered. However, he does so many things for our team that even an average shooting Bazz can still lead us to victory. If he is healthy and his normal self he could elevate this team on his own, although as Daniels has gotten healthier, Brimah has developed, Boatright has started playing within himself and for the team, and our other pieces have been handled well by Ollie, we don't need him to do that like we did earlier in the year.

 

[BlueMAB]

Did not ignore what you were responding to. I doubt there was a lot of disrespect in 1999 on message boards considering The Boneyard was new in 1998. Probably a little more in 2004 and 2011. That and besides those three years, it looks like opposing teams fans were correct

Only one fan base was correct each year. That happens when you make the tournament as often as we do, a problem you guys only hope to have.

This fanbase is so cute. You call us a mid major because you play in the Big 12. Yet we've been to the sweet 16 more times than you've been to the NCAA tournament.

You're like Vanderbilt Football bragging about the SEC. Except Vanderbilt at least has academics.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

1. 
   [ ]The fans don't play the game and in 2012 we heard a lot of the same things from UConn fans about how they would dominate ISU. How ISU fans aren't knowledgable, etc. ISU is a very knowledgeable basketball school. This isn't some made up comment from ISU fans. The fans are well known for being some of the best and understanding the game. I realize we aren't Duke, Kansas, UConn, Syracuse but that doesn't really matter when understanding a sport. And ISU fans are normally pretty realistic. We knew that the 2001 team was ovrrated and would bow out early(not lose to a 15) We knew the 2000 team was a final four National Championship caliber team. We ain't ignant hicks.
   [ ]No one, including myself, thinks losing Niang is no big deal. Onions said it would kill us and we can't replace his production. I have pointed out that we did replace his production in the last game. That is all I was pointing out. Onions stated if UConn brings it's A Game it is their game to lose. I disagree. IF ISU bring's it's A Game, they can replace Niang's production. Unfortunately, it takes a lot more for 3 guys to bring their A game than just one and the chances of that are much slimmer. Cyclone fans realize that
   [ ]In your knowledge of been there done that, is this UConn team for real? Are they winning with Mirrors? Or are they for real? I ask this because I keep hearing about how key players are inconcsistent. Or things like...if we bring our A Game. Or if the right Daniels shows up.

My point about having been there and done that is UConn fans recognize when the Huskies are in trouble, because we have seen a lot of very good UConn teams stumble in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. This year's team is good, but not nearly as good as some of the better UConn teams. That said, UConn has a good draw, which is critically important, and Iowa State is missing one of its best players.

Losing a key player during the tournament is a death sentence for the postseason hopes. You guys are still good, but you are living on borrowed time. You wouldn't have gotten the 3 seed if you had lost Niang 3 weeks ago. Iowa State is not a 3 seed caliber team anymore, and UConn is the last team Iowa State has a reasonably high probability of beating in this tournament.

 

[Scot-e]

I think what we are saying with things like "if we bring our "A" game or if the "real" DD shows up is the fact that we have had games were we played terrible during the year (and those games were painful to watch) and games where DD just did not show up.

The interesting thing about this years team is that they seem to have saved their best ball for the NCAA. We have a senior leader similar to ISU and he simply lifts the play of everyone around him. I don't expect anything but our "A" game and I am not worried about DD showing up. We worry just like any other fans base but if do play our best- it is going to be a lot harder for you to score then against a very inconsistent UNC team.

I think most fans here have a great deal of respect for your team and coach. It is an interesting game to talk about- lots of funky match ups. I think our "A" game on D can hang with your "A" game on O and I think we are underrated offensively. We both have two players that can score 25 points at will and are nearly impossible to stop- we both have a talented supporting cast. it's as close to a "pick em" as you can find in the Sweet 16.

I am going to age 10 years during this game.

WE ARE DOOMED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!