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Lies, Damn Lies and Statstistics (and a good portion of your stats are made up).
2nd & 7 is NOT reasonable. If it is, it's certainly not desirable. Look at it this way, If you gain 3 yards on each of 1st, 2nd and 3rd down, you end up with a 4th and 1, 3 and out, Punt. A decent run game should yield AT LEAST 4.0 yards/rush, not counting sacks (which count as a rush in the college game). Only converting 3 1st downs into an additional first down or 2nd & short is pathetic. 2nd & short affords you the opportunity to take a chance deep, which keeps the safeties and LB's honest.
So using your math, yes in a vacuum and premises (i.e. 2nd & 7 is a reasonable situation), running on first down yields a favorable percentage. But when an above average team KNOWS for certain that you are running, 2nd & 7 becomes 2nd and 8, 9, 10, or longer.
Not quite sure where the lies were....I literally displayed ALL my math right in front of you and yes they were all made up....that was the point
2nd and 7/6 IS most certainly reasonable
Am I saying it is ideal or what we should be striving for?....absolutely not
I stick by my math, I mean you can't deny anything I said, there are no opinions in my post, numbers don't lie
And I never talked about what to do on 2nd or 3rd down, YOU made that part up, all I was saying is that a 2nd and 7 opens up the playbook more than a 2nd and 10....because on 2nd and 10 the defense knows you are going to pass and passing leads to an interception a high percentage of the time than running it (at least with our team)
So please try and poke holes in my math.....you can't