Drummond at the next level?

[Uconn93]

Based on his current talent level, Drummond would never get the all-important 2nd NBA contract. Sure he would be a lottery pick based on potential, but we all saw what his skill level is. He has tremendous potential, but until he has numbers at the collegiate level close to a double double average, he simply isn't ready. I would expect that that would be the advice he gets from Coach and all of the Uconn alums in The League. Yes, there is the APR issue, but Drummond is still going to get the chance to grow his game and set himself up for life with that 2nd NBA deal. I predict the people in the know will tell him to come back. Hopefully, he listens.

 

[UCONNfan1]

there's something to be said for going in the top 10 and getting a guaranteed contract in the millions. of course it's based on potential. of course Drummond isn't ready (neither was Bynum, but after 7 years in the league, he's averaging about 18 and 13). While he's a sick athlete, his FT shooting is horrific, and anything that's not a dunk has about a 25% chance of going in (it seems).

i think a lot depends on how much he likes the college experience - his friends, classes, teammates, coaches, etc etc. and how much he needs the $$.

most fans probably think he should stay, but any team that invests millions certainly has it in their best interest to spend time and effort developing the kid as best they can.

 

[UConn5]

Here is what I think the dilemma facing Drummond is. If he goes pro this year he likely a top 5 pick, definitely a top 10 pick. Of course it is obviously clear to everyone who has seen him play that he could use another year to work on some post moves, etc. But the problem is, should he decide to stay, and he doesn't develop quite as much as people expect him to, his stock could slide.

I don't know how useful it is to speculate about this stuff while UConn's NCAA status for next year is up in the air. If UConn isn't eligible for the tournament I wouldn't blame any of these guys for bolting.

 

[UConn990411]

Based on his current talent level, Drummond would never get the all-important 2nd NBA contract. Sure he would be a lottery pick based on potential, but we all saw what his skill level is. He has tremendous potential, but until he has numbers at the collegiate level close to a double double average, he simply isn't ready.

Yes, because no player has ever improved after he got to the NBA.

 

[jleves]

I've always wondered why people think players would develop more/better if they stayed in college. In college, he has a limited amount of time in the gym, limited access to coaches, limited practice time with a team and most important, he's practicing against college players. If he goes pro, he's got about 100 times as many practices in a year. He's got unlimited access to coaches and training time. He doesn't have an obligation to be taking care of classes. And he gets to go against pro players. Why do you think kids like Oak played so much better after a few weeks of big man camp against the best and taught by the best? As a pro, that's not a two week camp - it's a 365 day camp.

If he has the potential, it will be brought out faster if he goes pro. He needs another year of college is ridiculous. Do I want to see him stay for another year? Hell yes, but that's only because I'm selfish fan. I am not for a second thinking what is best for the kid.

 

[Dogdeacon]

I've always wondered why people think players would develop more/better if they stayed in college. In college, he has a limited amount of time in the gym, limited access to coaches, limited practice time with a team and most important, he's practicing against college players. If he goes pro, he's got about 100 times as many practices in a year. He's got unlimited access to coaches and training time. He doesn't have an obligation to be taking care of classes. And he gets to go against pro players. Why do you think kids like Oak played so much better after a few weeks of big man camp against the best and taught by the best? As a pro, that's not a two week camp - it's a 365 day camp.

If he has the potential, it will be brought out faster if he goes pro. He needs another year of college is ridiculous. Do I want to see him stay for another year? Hell yes, but that's only because I'm selfish fan. I am not for a second thinking what is best for the kid.

Nope, I think you are wrong. The reason is NBA teams rarely practice. This is why the NBDL was created and why young players who are not playing are better off in a developmental league. Although the problem there is the coaching stinks and the level of play is more free-for-all vs college.
You don't practice much in the NBA and if you don't play the only work you get is walk-thru's and shootarounds. Its reasonable to guess that players will practice, develop and be coached once basketball is their job and practice facilities and coaching resources are available, but 95% of the team's efforts are geared at winning games and guys who will develop in the long-term don't get attention. Coaches are not GM's and projects are not helpful to them. Maybe, maybe maybe with the right team and the right staff of assistants and vets to teach him AD would be 'coached' but that is the exception not the rule.
Celtics example/excerpt below - (granted this is magnified in shortened season and for older teams):
One of the issues the Celtics had last year was finding time to practice. With a veteran core that the Celtics have, a lot off-days are just that - days off.
Not that any team can practice every day that there isn't a game, but the Celtics were far, far from that being the case.
OK, they barely practiced.
Doc Rivers said it numerous times last season: the team just hasn't had enough time to work on issues that need to be addressed.
So how the heck will they practice this season? Sure, it's only "two extra games per month" and that doesn't seem like much, but it will have a bigger affect in terms of getting in the gym for practice. Not only will the C's obviously not practice on those two days a month that there are games, but they're going to need more rest now most likely - and in months with less time for it.
Rivers expressed worry that practices would be few and far between, saying "yeah" when the question was raised.

"That again, we'll find that out with the scheduling.," he said. "I've done a lot of - not a lot but some research. I know in the last time this happened with the 50 game [season] there were some coaches that didn't have a practice at all during that season and there were some that did it another way. So we'll figure it out."
Wait, is Rivers throwing out the idea that they may never practice?

 

[uconngb]

I've always wondered why people think players would develop more/better if they stayed in college. In college, he has a limited amount of time in the gym, limited access to coaches, limited practice time with a team and most important, he's practicing against college players. If he goes pro, he's got about 100 times as many practices in a year. He's got unlimited access to coaches and training time. He doesn't have an obligation to be taking care of classes. And he gets to go against pro players. Why do you think kids like Oak played so much better after a few weeks of big man camp against the best and taught by the best? As a pro, that's not a two week camp - it's a 365 day camp.

If he has the potential, it will be brought out faster if he goes pro. He needs another year of college is ridiculous. Do I want to see him stay for another year? Hell yes, but that's only because I'm selfish fan. I am not for a second thinking what is best for the kid.

i don't think it's as black and white as you suggest, although i tend to agree w you. thabeet is an interesting example. he certainly hasn't improved one bit with all of that court time and pro coaching, but would he have been better off with another year of college? who knows? i know this: if you're smart about what you do with your $, anyone can live off of that 1st contract very comfortably, so it's tough to turn that down. would anyone who was, say, an accounting major not jump at a multi-million $ deal to leave school before getting a degree because they wanted to learn more about the tax code in college vs. from professionals day in and day out? not likely

 

[msgordon]

Like I posted before, DeAndre Jordan still does NOTHING besides catch alley oops and block shots and he just got a second contract offer of 4/43 that was instantly matched by the clips

 

[johnhuskies95]

The NBA coaches are far less patient to wait on a guy to develop. They also rarely work on individual skill development in season, during practice. A lot of times it's a matter of a player putting in the work and an organization having the patience to let him develop.

 

[Ts5034]

Here is what I think the dilemma facing Drummond is. If he goes pro this year he likely a top 5 pick, definitely a top 10 pick. Of course it is obviously clear to everyone who has seen him play that he could use another year to work on some post moves, etc. But the problem is, should he decide to stay, and he doesn't develop quite as much as people expect him to, his stock could slide.

I don't know how useful it is to speculate about this stuff while UConn's NCAA status for next year is up in the air. If UConn isn't eligible for the tournament I wouldn't blame any of these guys for bolting.

This is why i think he will decide to leave when its all said and done

 

[msgordon]

He has tremendous potential, but until he has numbers at the collegiate level close to a double double average, he simply isn't ready.

He averaged 10.5/8.6 in big east play fwiw

 

[superjohn]

Andre would be making a big misake leaving.

 

[UCweCONN]

Just speculating here (slaps self on wrist) but might Noel not having UCONN on his final three list mean that he's been told that Drummond is definitely coming back next season? The announcers on a recent game were saying Drummond loves college. In addition, the three schools on Noel's final list all seem like they will all have a free spot in the middle next season.

 

[Tenspro2002]

He averaged 10.5/8.6 in big east play fwiw

Fair, but not all 10.5/8.6 are created equal. It's obvious that his came from size/athleticism and nothing else.

 

[Fishy]

When Drummond makes basketball his profession, his game is going to improve in leaps and bounds.

He's going to be a fine NBA player.

 

[Dogdeacon]

Fair, but not all 10.5/8.6 are created equal. It's obvious that his came from size/athleticism and nothing else.

And what does that translate to on the next level against bigger, stronger, and faster competition? If the NBA twice as good as BE then its 5.25pts and 4.3 boards?! Not exactly what you are looking for in the lottery.

 

[UCweCONN]

When Drummond makes basketball his profession, his game is going to improve in leaps and bounds.

He's going to be a fine NBA player.

Please give me some examples of players who struggled in college and went on to great success in the NBA? I agree that he will be a very good pro but think college is a better place to develop 'game' than getting thrown to the wolves (not the Timberwolves who may end up drafting him) in the NBA. If being a professional in itself brings out dominant play from a great athlete, Mike Conley Jr. and Stanley Robinson should be dominating the NBA these days. Money has never motivated any great athlete into better play except during their free agency walk year.

 

[Druken Friar]

IMO he's not ready. If he can be a lottery pick and if he can develop in the NBA maybe he should go. Kobe Bryant did not play right away but it's evident he was a hard worker. He saw limited play his first season and moderate play his second. He wasn't a starter until his 3rd year.

If I was giving advice I'd suggest he stay another year and get better. The NBA can be very unforgiving.

 

[partial]

Please give me some examples of players who struggled in college and went on to great success in the NBA? I agree that he will be a very good pro but think college is a better place to develop 'game' than getting thrown to the wolves (not the Timberwolves who may end up drafting him) in the NBA. If being a professional in itself brings out dominant play from a great athlete, Mike Conley Jr. and Stanley Robinson should be dominating the NBA these days. Money has never motivated any great athlete into better play except during their free agency walk year.

Did Drummond really struggle, or just not dominate as much as you thought he could? His statistics his freshman year I would bet are similar to many players who went on to do great things. Not to put words in anyone's mouth, but I think the point is the man is a bundle of talent and athleticism(way more than conley or robinson), he's only going to get better and I don't think it would matter if he stayed in college or not with his talent.

 

[buckley503]

Why is Josh Boone playing in China? Because he couldn't hit a foul shot to save his life. Regardless if Drummond stays or goes, "Hack Drummond" will be the strategy against him making it a very tough go in the NBA.

 

[Vuce]

It is possible that the kid likes college too. The money is there now and will be there next year. Maybe he just enjoys what he is doing now.

 

[CTKIDD]

It is possible that the kid likes college too. The money is there now and will be there next year. Maybe he just enjoys what he is doing now.

thats a good point .. you watch his body language its like he aint got a mean bone in his body. Just maybe, he wants to be a kid a little longer..

 

[ChrisSmith]

Based on his current talent level, Drummond would never get the all-important 2nd NBA contract. Sure he would be a lottery pick based on potential, but we all saw what his skill level is. He has tremendous potential, but until he has numbers at the collegiate level close to a double double average, he simply isn't ready. I would expect that that would be the advice he gets from Coach and all of the Uconn alums in The League. Yes, there is the APR issue, but Drummond is still going to get the chance to grow his game and set himself up for life with that 2nd NBA deal. I predict the people in the know will tell him to come back. Hopefully, he listens.

If he goes pro this year he will likely be picked 2-5 and get roughly $15MM in guaranteed money. I'm not sure why you say he would never get a second contract. Even if he is a bust (6 points, 6 rebounds a game) he can have a 10 year NBA career - see Kwame Brown, Darko Millicic. Big men with a pulse don't have a hard time sticking around. There is absolutely nothing wrong with Drummond going pro. He will likely be financially secure for the rest of his life if he does just off the initial rookie contract, let alone hanging around as a journeyman.

There are potential benefits to sticking around. Colleges specialize in developing players more than NBA teams do. If you're so raw, you may not have enough time to develop before you're out of the league. You want to be good enough to get a max contract extension after 3 years; if you're still developing, you may end up accepting a longer term contract below you peak value.

People that want to make it a black and white issue that staying is the right thing to do are probably just UConn fans that want him to stick around and not people rationally looking at economics. A minimum $12MM is on the table for Drummond. It's a gamble to stay school.

 

[msgordon]

Fair, but not all 10.5/8.6 are created equal. It's obvious that his came from size/athleticism and nothing else.

You are making my point. That only helps his NBA stock. There's a hundred guys every year in d1 who give you 10 and 8. The only guys out of that group who get drafted are the freak athletes

 

[msgordon]

And what does that translate to on the next level against bigger, stronger, and faster competition? If the NBA twice as good as BE then its 5.25pts and 4.3 boards?! Not exactly what you are looking for in the lottery.

Again, this is off base. A guy who worked hard in the post in college to get his 10 and 8 would be likely to experience a bigger drop off in the league than a guy who got it 'athletically'