Changing of the Guard

[Fairfield Fan]

I think we're seeing the disappearance of some venerable WCBB programs, and the emergence of others to take their place. As mentioned elsewhere, I can't see Holly Wharlick surviving past the end of the (no post season) season at Tennessee. After today's loss to Maryland, C. Vivian Stringer's Rutgers team is just 16-12, and has now lost 7 of its last 11 games. And Sylvia Hatchell's UNC team now features a losing record: 14-15.

Wharlick has no cavalry coming to the rescue from the high school ranks. Recruits are similarly not on the horizon for Rutgers and Carolina. So it could be the end for all three coaches.

Taking their places, IMO, are Louisville, South Carolina, and Notre Dame. ND has garnered more top recruits, and gone further into the NCAA (five straight FF's) the past five years than they ever have under McGraw. Is it any wonder that ND's success is the direct result of the sinking of those other programs? Louisville, with a roster without a single senior, has now won 18 of their last 19 games, and appear set to challenge for a NCAA championship next year, and perhaps make a run at the FF this year.

Do I have this right? Can UT, UNC, and Rutgers come back? Can their coaches return next season after such disappointing seasons?

 

[UcMiami]

Yes - all three coaches can survive. WCBB is just not as cut throat as MCBB or FB in terms of coaching performance. I know Holly still has 3 years left on her contract, not sure about the other two, but ADs are unlikely to want to buy out a WCBB coaches contract when there isn't the pressure from boosters to make a change.
Specific to UNC - who would they get with a cloud hanging over the program - better to stick with Sylvia at least until that is resolved.
Rutgers - at least CVS hasn't embarrassed the AD or the Admin like other coaches and programs have at Rutgers.
TN - While there is a very vocal group of fans calling for Holly's head, should she be fired there is likely to be as vocal a group screaming 'disrespect for Pat's chosen successor'. And $1.5+M owing on the contract is a lot of money to throw away for a non-profitable program - and Holly has something like a 80% winning percentage as well as conference titles and S16/E8 appearances.

I do think the three programs will need new coaches soon, but suspect it will be the same three next year.

 

[HuskyNan]

Don't forget 18-11 Duke, currently 7th in the ACC standings.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Don't forget 18-11 Duke, currently 7th in the ACC standings.

I was thinking of adding Duke. But they'd been very good recently. Tennessee, on the other hand, hasn't been to a final four in seven years- soon to be eight. In fact, UT started heading south right after Candice Parker left, losing in the first round of the NCAA the very next year. But Duke has definitely been relegated to also-ran since Notre Dame showed up- and Louisville.

 

[Topdawg]

Places like Duke and Stanford will always attract academically minded athletes. So don't rule Duke out.

 

[Zorro]

I have mentioned this before, but Olde Coach called the shot on the Vols long before Pat's illness was known, based on the style of bball that Pat coached and the changing nature of the game in other programs. The Parker era was a freak situation; a group of athletes who were good enough to be dominant despite the style of offense they were coached in. Holly was schooled in that style and that is the style she is still trying to teach. The problem is that 1) her current team is aware that that style is not going to work and therefore resist employing it and 2) she does not have Pat's dominant personality to make them stop resisting. And it is self-reinforcing. Potential recruits see how the LV play, they read the body language of the players (notably DD, but others as well), they read the fan boards (VolNation) and want no part of that situation.

CVS had a somewhat similar situation a few years back, where she seemed to have totally lost control of her players, but now seems to have overcome it. And the athletic dept. at Rutgers has never seemed to care much about her record. The situation at NC is quite diffeent; it is hard to see how a coaching change would improve matters much, until the cheating case comes to a conclusion.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

I have mentioned this before, but Olde Coach called the shot on the Vols long before Pat's illness was known, based on the style of bball that Pat coached and the changing nature of the game in other programs. The Parker era was a freak situation; a group of athletes who were good enough to be dominant despite the style of offense they were coached in. Holly was schooled in that style and that is the style she is still trying to teach. The problem is that 1) her current team is aware that that style is not going to work and therefore resist employing it and 2) she does not have Pat's dominant personality to make them stop resisting. And it is self-reinforcing. Potential recruits see how the LV play, they read the body language of the players (notably DD, but others as well), they read the fan boards (VolNation) and want no part of that situation.

CVS had a somewhat similar situation a few years back, where she seemed to have totally lost control of her players, but now seems to have overcome it. And the athletic dept. at Rutgers has never seemed to care much about her record. The situation at NC is quite diffeent; it is hard to see how a coaching change would improve matters much, until the cheating case comes to a conclusion.

I think one thing's for sure now: no one will be hankering for a Tennessee-Connecticut game to be scheduled. No longer relevant.

Wonder whether the AD and university will really sit by and watch thousands of WBB tickets go unpurchased without making a coaching change. Unlike other women's basketball programs that bring in just a little more than bupkiss, Tennessee's program was big-time. Will the athletic department really sit by and let that reputation and the money it brings in evaporate? I'm guessing that money will talk. Perhaps Hatchell isn't replaced, but will she want to stick around in an environment in which her teams will suffer multi-year bans from post-season tournaments? Will she want to stay around when she knows that recruits will not come near that school? Or is this season the time to announce retirement?

 

[UcMiami]

I think one thing's for sure now: no one will be hankering for a Tennessee-Connecticut game to be scheduled. No longer relevant.

Wonder whether the AD and university will really sit by and watch thousands of WBB tickets go unpurchased without making a coaching change. Unlike other women's basketball programs that bring in just a little more than bupkiss, Tennessee's program was big-time. Will the athletic department really sit by and let that reputation and the money it brings in evaporate? I'm guessing that money will talk. Perhaps Hatchell isn't replaced, but will she want to stick around in an environment in which her teams will suffer multi-year bans from post-season tournaments? Will she want to stay around when she knows that recruits will not come near that school? Or is this season the time to announce retirement?

Nothing is really showing up in the attendance figures yet - I think it could fall off a cliff next year if Holly is returning and hasn't found some exciting JC players to bring in.
Duke is an interesting situation as well, with a coach who just got an extension too. I think Duke does really care about WCBB and certainly the recruiting there is tied to academics in a way that TN is not, but they have been in pretty steady decline as well - between injuries, defections, and coaching it is not a very pretty picture.

 

[msf22b]

The fact that Holly has no (zero) recruits for next year is incredibly damning, guaranteeing that next year's team will be inferior to the current (underperforming) one.
There are also some discussions of underclassmen abandoning ship.
Which would result in UTenn being the laughing stock of the SEC.
It's hard to imagine the seemingly patient alumni/boosters putting up with a completely denuded and hopeless program

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

I think we're seeing the disappearance of some venerable WCBB programs, and the emergence of others to take their place. As mentioned elsewhere, I can't see Holly Wharlick surviving past the end of the (no post season) season at Tennessee. After today's loss to Maryland, C. Vivian Stringer's Rutgers team is just 16-12, and has now lost 7 of its last 11 games. And Sylvia Hatchell's UNC team now features a losing record: 14-15.

Um - it sure won't be a no post season year for Tennessee. Might be a bad one, but they were a projected 5 seed before today's loss. Hard to see them dropping out. Great SOS makes up for some other sins.

UNC and Duke (added by someone) are extremely unlikely to make the post-season. Rutgers is currently in the "first 4 out" list, but I admit I'm not encouraged.

Vivian's contract is not guaranteed after this season. So she could retire, or not. Whoever suggested the RU doesn't care about her record is speaking from the viewpoint of an elite team. RU was never elite, and RU's record has in general remained "good".

I'm not sure any of the coaches will be gone, but any of them could be.

 

[nd2tty]

I was thinking of adding Duke. But they'd been very good recently. Tennessee, on the other hand, hasn't been to a final four in seven years- soon to be eight. In fact, UT started heading south right after Candice Parker left, losing in the first round of the NCAA the very next year. But Duke has definitely been relegated to also-ran since Notre Dame showed up- and Louisville.

Duke hasn't been to a final four in nine years - soon to be ten.

 

[HardHatGuy#2]

I think of all of the coaches mentioned, CVS is the one who won't be back. There was a LOT of grumbling at the school when they gave her her last extension (I was one of the people stumping for her online), the team hasn't made any significant strides recently, and the game appears to be passing RU by. They were never Elite, but they could put a scare into any team on any night; this year, apart from a three point loss to Sparty, they have beaten nobody, and all other games against ranked teams are double-digit losses.

I expect Charlene to walk off into the sunset after the season, on her own terms.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

The fact that Holly has no (zero) recruits for next year is incredibly damning, guaranteeing that next year's team will be inferior to the current (underperforming) one.
There are also some discussions of underclassmen abandoning ship.
Which would result in UTenn being the laughing stock of the SEC.
It's hard to imagine the seemingly patient alumni/boosters putting up with a completely denuded and hopeless program

I honestly feel very sorry for DeShields. She jumped the UNC ship to go to what she thought was a top-tier Tennessee program that with her arrival would challenge for all the marbles. But looking at her expression during the news conference linked to on this site, I think she was thinking about the awful decision she made in moving to Knoxville. She must see what a train wreck UT is, and understand that she can't jump to another program again. So very sad for her.

 

[Zorro]

It seems to me that the arrival of DD and her BFF Cooper may have been the straw that broke the back of the LV. I have absolutely no inside info, but just by observing from outside, the rebellion against Holly seems to have dated from that. Incidentally, rumors are rife over yonder that several members of the current team may transfer after the season, unless Holly is replaced. It ain't lookin good over on Rocky Top.

 

[UcMiami]

It seems to me that the arrival of DD and her BFF Cooper may have been the straw that broke the back of the LV. I have absolutely no inside info, but just by observing from outside, the rebellion against Holly seems to have dated from that. Incidentally, rumors are rife over yonder that several members of the current team may transfer after the season, unless Holly is replaced. It ain't lookin good over on Rocky Top.

I think that is just idle speculation based on nothing more than general angst and disgust with the way the year is playing out. (the transfer talk)

NB Thank goodness we have rules here banning such speculation and moderators who enforce those rules strictly.

 

[Dillon77]

I have mentioned this before, but Olde Coach called the shot on the Vols long before Pat's illness was known, based on the style of bball that Pat coached and the changing nature of the game in other programs. The Parker era was a freak situation; a group of athletes who were good enough to be dominant despite the style of offense they were coached in. Holly was schooled in that style and that is the style she is still trying to teach. The problem is that 1) her current team is aware that that style is not going to work and therefore resist employing it and 2) she does not have Pat's dominant personality to make them stop resisting. And it is self-reinforcing. Potential recruits see how the LV play, they read the body language of the players (notably DD, but others as well), they read the fan boards (VolNation) and want no part of that situation.

CVS had a somewhat similar situation a few years back, where she seemed to have totally lost control of her players, but now seems to have overcome it. And the athletic dept. at Rutgers has never seemed to care much about her record. The situation at NC is quite diffeent; it is hard to see how a coaching change would improve matters much, until the cheating case comes to a conclusion.

I think Olde Coach was/is onto something. Let's take a look at another school that has a Tennessee connection: LSU is 9-18 this year under former Pat Summitt player and coach Nikki (Caldwell) Fargas, following a 17-14 slate last year. She started off well in 2011 in LSU when in her first year (coming from UCLA), the Tigers went 23-11 and followed that with 22-12 and 21-13. But last year and this year are at a level beneath those years.

I'm not aware of any major injuries this year. Could it be that the way in which they approach the game is losing it's allure? And that talent is going somewhere else? If so, LSU is not ranked in the Top 20 classes for 2016 and, of course, Tennessee does not have a single recruit for next year. Actually, now that I look at the Class Rankings for 2016, the only SEC team rated is Vanderbilt and that's at #17. Could be that a step change is necessary in the SEC (no matter how hard ESPN pushes it...).

As for the other schools, anything can happen but my gut:

- Based on how decades of service and all the obstacles she's overcome, I think Sylvia Hatchell gets to coach that huge group of incoming freshmen next year. However, progress needs to be seen in a few years...
- As for Rutgers, I was a bit surprised at the extension a few years back, but could see if given what was going on with men's hoops and football. There's (yet again) a new football coach and the athletic director is new and empowered. There's talk about upgrading the RAC and financial targets might clamor for new looks so, I wouldn't be surprised to see Coach Stringer's long run end soon (I think Eddie Jordan's much shorter stint as men's coach is ending very soon, as well...)
- Duke. Hmmmm. AD Kevin White does not pull the trigger quickly, so I expect Coach P to get another year or two. But their ACC Dominance has been eclipsed by the Irish and Louisville, Syracuse and FSU are all at the gates.

 

[iamcbs]

As was stated earlier in this thread, AD's are loathe to throw good money after bad in non-revenue producing sports. So the likelihood that any of the 4 mentioned programs will make a change is slim. Tennessee won't pay the prohibitive cost to fire Holly Warlick, CViv is a legend and faces no pressure to win at Rutgers, if UNC fires Sylvia Hatchell who takes over that dumpster fire at Carolina? Joanne P. McAllie obviously has damning photos of someone in the administration at Duke, that's the only reason I can fathom that she's still there. I don't understand your characterization if ND as an up-and-coming program? They have been an elite-level program for years, winning the natty in 01. Muffett recruits like a son-of-a-bitch, she's got 15 AA's coming in next year doesn't she?(sarcasm font). As long as she's there, they will be an elite program, her hurdle is she can't beat Geno and even when she did, they didn't win the Natty, because they believed they'd won it by beating Maya Moore in the semi's. But ND is consistently one of the top 5 programs in the country and have been for years.

 

[UcMiami]

I think Olde Coach was/is onto something. Let's take a look at another school that has a Tennessee connection: LSU is 9-18 this year under former Pat Summitt player and coach Nikki (Caldwell) Fargas, following a 17-14 slate last year. She started off well in 2011 in LSU when in her first year (coming from UCLA), the Tigers went 23-11 and followed that with 22-12 and 21-13. But last year and this year are at a level beneath those years.

I'm not aware of any major injuries this year. Could it be that the way in which they approach the game is losing it's allure? And that talent is going somewhere else? If so, LSU is not ranked in the Top 20 classes for 2016 and, of course, Tennessee does not have a single recruit for next year. Actually, now that I look at the Class Rankings for 2016, the only SEC team rated is Vanderbilt and that's at #17. Could be that a step change is necessary in the SEC (no matter how hard ESPN pushes it...).

As for the other schools, anything can happen but my gut:

- Based on how decades of service and all the obstacles she's overcome, I think Sylvia Hatchell gets to coach that huge group of incoming freshmen next year. However, progress needs to be seen in a few years...
- As for Rutgers, I was a bit surprised at the extension a few years back, but could see if given what was going on with men's hoops and football. There's (yet again) a new football coach and the athletic director is new and empowered. There's talk about upgrading the RAC and financial targets might clamor for new looks so, I wouldn't be surprised to see Coach Stringer's long run end soon (I think Eddie Jordan's much shorter stint as men's coach is ending very soon, as well...)
- Duke. Hmmmm. AD Kevin White does not pull the trigger quickly, so I expect Coach P to get another year or two. But their ACC Dominance has been eclipsed by the Irish and Louisville, Syracuse and FSU are all at the gates.

Just FYI - LSU has lost I bunch of players to injury this year and are playing walk-ons just to get five player onto the court for games - makes their win against TN even more stunning.

 

[Dillon77]

Just FYI - LSU has lost I bunch of players to injury this year and are playing walk-ons just to get five player onto the court for games - makes their win against TN even more stunning.

Thanks. Yes, I see that they lost Raigyne Moncreif to a knee injury for the season. Their third leading scorer graduated last year and their leading scorer and rebounder, Danille Ballard, left school last summer. Here's an article on a few of those:
http://theadvocate.com/sports/lsu/12768821-123/danielle-ballards-basketball-career-at

So, yes the win over the Lady Vols is astounding given the circumstances. But the exits/injuries and immediate lack of entries raises some question marks. Maybe not now, but worth keeping an eye on...

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

Thanks. Yes, I see that they lost Raigyne Moncreif to a knee injury for the season. Their third leading scorer graduated last year and their leading scorer and rebounder, Danille Ballard, left school last summer. Here's an article on a few of those:
http://theadvocate.com/sports/lsu/12768821-123/danielle-ballards-basketball-career-at

So, yes the win over the Lady Vols is astounding given the circumstances. But the exits/injuries and immediate lack of entries raises some question marks. Maybe not now, but worth keeping an eye on...

I'm not buying that their coach is necessarily anything special. TBD, as they say. But the challenges over the last 2 seasons have been real and I don't think the seasons can be used as determiners of her potential.

 

[j66kicker]

I don't understand your characterization if ND as an up-and-coming program? They have been an elite-level program for years, winning the natty in 01. Muffett recruits like a son-of-a-bitch, she's got 15 AA's coming in next year doesn't she?(sarcasm font). As long as she's there, they will be an elite program, her hurdle is she can't beat Geno and even when she did, they didn't win the Natty, because they believed they'd won it by beating Maya Moore in the semi's. But ND is consistently one of the top 5 programs in the country and have been for years.

A little OT, but yes Muffett did beat Geno in the FF and went on to win the NC in 2001.

 

[Vowelguy]

20 years ago, here were the top 16 teams (as determined by the top 16 NCAA seeds):

• Virginia, Clemson, Duke
• Tenn, Georgia, Vandy, Alabama
• Stanford, Colorado
• Kansas, Texas Tech
• Iowa, Penn St
• UConn
• Old Dominion, La Tech

Only ~5 of those teams are expected to even make the tourney this year.
And just 2 (UConn & Stanford) will get a top 16 seed.

 

[Vowelguy]

25 years ago, here were the top 16 teams (as determined by the top 16 NCAA seeds):

• Tenn, Auburn, Georgia, LSU, Arkansas
• Purdue, Penn St, Mich St
• Clemson, NC St, Virginia
• Stanford, Washington
• UConn
• W Ky, Long Beach St

~8 of those teams are expected to even make the tourney this year.
And just 2 (UConn & Stanford) will get a top 16 seed.

 

[trb123]

The old order changeth—changeth under our very eyes, not quietly and equably, but swiftly and with the noise and heat and tumult of reconstruction….

Woodrow Wilson

The old order changeth yielding place to new
And God fulfills himself in many ways
Lest one good custom should corrupt the world.

From The Passing of Arthur in the Idylls of the King by Alfred Tennyson