Bracketology & Explaining Bubble Teams

[Wbbfan1]

Bracketology: http://espn.go.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

Bubble Teams: http://espn.go.com/womens-college-basketball/story/_/id/14822789/breaking-bubble-teams

Lady Vols as a 7 seed. 4 ACC and Pac 12 teams hosting.

Don't understand the Love of the SEC with 9 teams making the tournament.

 

[UcMiami]

God I hate RPI! When a win against UCRIverside is touted as 'a top 50' and a loss against Memphis is condemned as a 'below 100' you know a system is brain dead.

 

[jdubct]

Bracketology: http://espn.go.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

Bubble Teams: http://espn.go.com/womens-college-basketball/story/_/id/14822789/breaking-bubble-teams

Lady Vols as a 7 seed. 4 ACC and Pac 12 teams hosting.

Don't understand the Love of the SEC with 9 teams making the tournament.

If it's any consolation, I would guess that 5 or more of the SEC teams will lose in the first two rounds of the tournament.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

God I hate RPI! When a win against UCRIverside is touted as 'a top 50' and a loss against Memphis is condemned as a 'below 100' you know a system is brain dead.

Not to dispute your opinion of RPI - I think it is much too broadly used and relied on - but I think Charlie was suggesting that UCRiverside wasn't much of plus on your schedule regardless.

Losing to Memphis would not be a positive in anyone's mind.

While I am not giving him great credibility on who is actually in / out I think he highlighted the issues of the bubble teams well. Poor scheduling - long mentioned on this board - and a lack of signature wins (which I got pooh-poohed for mentioning I think last year) - are what are going to keep some teams out.

In the end, there are going to be teams in the tourney that are not "deserving" except that they are more deserving than their peers. A situation that got worse with the end of the oBE.

 

[EricLA]

Anything that has Tennessee as a 7 seed is an absolute joke. RPI be damned. After yesterday's loss to the worst team in their league, they should be no better than an 8 seed, and possibly a 9 seed. I mean, Tennessee as a 7 seed and #21 South Florida as an 8 seed is beyond ridiculous. JOKE.

 

[UcMiami]

Not to dispute your opinion of RPI - I think it is much too broadly used and relied on - but I think Charlie was suggesting that UCRiverside wasn't much of plus on your schedule regardless.

Losing to Memphis would not be a positive in anyone's mind.

While I am not giving him great credibility on who is actually in / out I think he highlighted the issues of the bubble teams well. Poor scheduling - long mentioned on this board - and a lack of signature wins (which I got pooh-poohed for mentioning I think last year) - are what are going to keep some teams out.

In the end, there are going to be teams in the tourney that are not "deserving" except that they are more deserving than their peers. A situation that got worse with the end of the oBE.

Mostly agree with you, but the continued references to RPI in evaluation when it is proven to be such a meaningless stat annoys me. It doesn't measure strength of schedule it measures the win lost record of the teams you play (50%) and the team that they play (25%.) The best thing that happens for the top end of the SEC is that the the teams who have gone a combined 9-32 in league play went 30-9 in OOC while playing virtually nobody. Add in the middle who also played virtually nobody while compiling 60-6 record (MissSt, Missouri, Georgia, Florida, and Auburn) while playing at home most of the time and you can all start crowing about you wonderful RPI numbers when you play each other, and who really cares who wins or loses those games - in fact it is better that you trade wins so you can both point to a 'quality RPI win' and everybody gets to dance. The Pac12 has started to figure this out as well which is why a team like Oregon is sitting on the bubble instead of planning a WNIT campaign - look at the bottom two thirds of the Pac12 schedules and records OOC and it is the same sort of picture.

 

[Vowelguy]

Don't understand the Love of the SEC with 9 teams making the tournament.

The committee doesn't pick conferences. It evaluates each team.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

Mostly agree with you, but the continued references to RPI in evaluation when it is proven to be such a meaningless stat annoys me. It doesn't measure strength of schedule it measures the win lost record of the teams you play (50%) and the team that they play (25%.) The best thing that happens for the top end of the SEC is that the the teams who have gone a combined 9-32 in league play went 30-9 in OOC while playing virtually nobody. Add in the middle who also played virtually nobody while compiling 60-6 record (MissSt, Missouri, Georgia, Florida, and Auburn) while playing at home most of the time and you can all start crowing about you wonderful RPI numbers when you play each other, and who really cares who wins or loses those games - in fact it is better that you trade wins so you can both point to a 'quality RPI win' and everybody gets to dance. The Pac12 has started to figure this out as well which is why a team like Oregon is sitting on the bubble instead of planning a WNIT campaign - look at the bottom two thirds of the Pac12 schedules and records OOC and it is the same sort of picture.

In the 6 conference, BCS world that was, RPI worked a bit better, because almost everyone good was in the BCS conferences, the A10 , MW and CUSA of the day got a little "push" because they played more BCS teams than their peers, and you were comparing relative "equals". An individual team could "game" the RPI, but only within limits. Play non-BCS teams that dominate their conference and play poor BCS teams from other conferences. The tricks were well known. And the non-BCS teams suffered a bit for it, except for the noted conferences.

Now, you have BCS teams, so called, NOT in the P5 conferences. Teams in the American and BE are disadvantaged because of the weakness of the bottom half teams (this affects the A10 as well, the MW and CUSA faded due to realignment). Meanwhile, the P5 RPI are inflated for the reasons you mention.

By the way, teams play lousy OOC conference schedules for a lot of reasons - for example, sometimes your OOC opponents are not as good as expected (St. Joseph's for RU, Temple was a question mark for a while), other times you just need wins, baby. See Butts, Niya, probably not surviving this season. Teams play OOC mostly at home because it is financially to their benefit. If you were to list RU's OOC schedules for the last 10 years, home / away and "where away" - you will quickly see that finance went into it as well. And RU can't be the only school.

 

[Monte]

Anything that has Tennessee as a 7 seed is an absolute joke. RPI be damned. After yesterday's loss to the worst team in their league, they should be no better than an 8 seed, and possibly a 9 seed. I mean, Tennessee as a 7 seed and #21 South Florida as an 8 seed is beyond ridiculous. JOKE.

Don't like Tenn, BUT they could beat every AAC team except Uconn.

 

[pinotbear]

Don't like Tenn, BUT they could beat every AAC team except Uconn.

and, they could lose to two or three of 'em, too

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

and, they could lose to two or three of 'em, too

True. The conundrum of this year's Lady Vols.

 

[Monte]

and, they could lose to two or three of 'em, too

 

[UcMiami]

Don't like Tenn, BUT they could beat every AAC team except Uconn.

And as they proved last night, they could lose to every AAC team as well! (LSU is a disaster this year, with injuries and mid-season additions of walk-ons. They have 18 listed players on their roster but I believe only dressed eight for the game!!!

 

[Monte]

Which 3 teams could beat them?

 

[UcMiami]

In the 6 conference, BCS world that was, RPI worked a bit better, because almost everyone good was in the BCS conferences, the A10 , MW and CUSA of the day got a little "push" because they played more BCS teams than their peers, and you were comparing relative "equals". An individual team could "game" the RPI, but only within limits. Play non-BCS teams that dominate their conference and play poor BCS teams from other conferences. The tricks were well known. And the non-BCS teams suffered a bit for it, except for the noted conferences.

Now, you have BCS teams, so called, NOT in the P5 conferences. Teams in the American and BE are disadvantaged because of the weakness of the bottom half teams (this affects the A10 as well, the MW and CUSA faded due to realignment). Meanwhile, the P5 RPI are inflated for the reasons you mention.

By the way, teams play lousy OOC conference schedules for a lot of reasons - for example, sometimes your OOC opponents are not as good as expected (St. Joseph's for RU, Temple was a question mark for a while), other times you just need wins, baby. See Butts, Niya, probably not surviving this season. Teams play OOC mostly at home because it is financially to their benefit. If you were to list RU's OOC schedules for the last 10 years, home / away and "where away" - you will quickly see that finance went into it as well. And RU can't be the only school.

All good points. I'm not sure for example Georgia has left the state in five years for an OOC game! And it is a particular issue for most Pac12 teams as playing any P5 team is a long distance proposition.

But all of that does not excuse the continued reliance on RPI as some sort of determinant for quality by the NCAA - it is broken and it was never very good to begin with, so find something that works better. The biggest issue I have with it is that when looking at the 31 at large bids which should be ranked in the top 50 nationally, any win or loss against a team above 75 or 100 should be valued the same as any other - losing to Maine (80 in massey) or Wake Forest (100) is just as bad an indicator as losing to UMBC (180) or SF Austin (200) - a team expecting to dance as an at large shouldn't be doing that. And the reverse, giving a team more credit for beating either set of those teams is equally mindless.

 

[EricLA]

Don't like Tenn, BUT they could beat every AAC team except Uconn.

Um, they did just lose to the worst team in the league - LSU, and they barely beat the 2nd worst, Ole Miss, by 5 or so. This is the same LSU team who lost to Tulane in the AAC. They also lost to Maine and Samford. BTW Ole Miss also lost to Tulane. Tulane's not bad - they are 4th in our conference. But to say Tenn would beat anyone in our league not named UCONN is quite the stretch.

 

[Rocket009]

Which 3 teams could beat them?

Having watched a number of Tennessee games this year:

South Florida
Temple
Tulane
Memphis

All would have a decent shot of beating them.

 

[pinotbear]

Which 3 teams could beat them?

I said, 2 or 3 - on a given night, South Florida, Temple, and (since Tulane beat LSU), maybe Tulane. And, of course, Memphis beat Temple and Tulane, so...

Should they beat Tenn.? No. But, neither should LSU, Arkansas, Va Tech. Nor should Tenn. struggle with PSU, Albany, Chattagnooga, or Ol' Miss, but, they did.

 

[Monte]

Um, they did just lose to the worst team in the league - LSU, and they barely beat the 2nd worst, Ole Miss, by 5 or so. This is the same LSU team who lost to Tulane in the AAC. They also lost to Maine and Samford. BTW Ole Miss also lost to Tulane. Tulane's not bad - they are 4th in our conference. But to say Tenn would beat anyone in our league not named UCONN is quite the stretch.

Um, USF is Second in the AAC. They only beat East Carolina by 2! They also lost to Memphis twice. I have not heard too many people saying how good the AAC is. If anyone says it is a good league, that would be a very LONG stretch.

 

[EricLA]

Um, USF is Second in the AAC. They only beat East Carolina by 2! They also lost to Memphis twice. I have not heard too many people saying how good the AAC is. If anyone says it is a good league, that would be a very LONG stretch.

I didn't say it was a good league. I just disagree that Tennessee would beat any team in the AAC not named UCONN. Several AAC teams either beat, or came very close to beating, some of the decent SEC teams. Temple beat Florida before they were ranked. Tulane, as I already mentioned, beat Ole Miss and LSU. SMU lost to aTm by 12 and to Miss State by 2. Tulsa beat Arkansas.

The bottom 4 teams in our conference are pretty dreadful, but let's not pretend like the middle and top of our conference would suck it against the SEC. And Tennessee is currently 9th in their division, behind some teams who have beaten them, who also lost to AAC teams not named UCONN. I realize you can't say "Team A beat team B who beat team C, therefore team A would beat team C", but when you make a statement like "Tennessee would beat any team in our league not named UCONN", you ought to at least have some facts to back it up, and the facts say otherwise.

Tennessee has shown they are a pretty awful team capable of losing to anyone (Va Tech and LSU for example), so let's not pretend they are a really good, or even just plain good, team...

 

[UcMiami]

Um, USF is Second in the AAC. They only beat East Carolina by 2! They also lost to Memphis twice. I have not heard too many people saying how good the AAC is. If anyone says it is a good league, that would be a very LONG stretch.

Well, lets see, Uconn beat LSU (before the injuries) by 46, and TN lost to LSU by one so that is a 47 point MOV. Hmmm - Uconn did not beat Memphis (twice), Houston, Tulane, USF, Temple, and ECU (twice) by such a wide margin. (I know it doesn't work that way, but what the heck. )
TN is quite capable of losing to anyone as they have proved time and again this season. Heck - they almost lost to Wichita State the second worst team in the MVC with a 4-11 record in conference, holding onto a one point lead with 1:45 to play in the game.