ANALYSIS and COMMENTS - UConn vs Duke - Sweet Sixteen (Game 3 - NCAA Tournament)

[Huskee11]

I would go along with whatever Temery wants because his/her avatar scares me.

Uuuuuhhhhh.

 

[JoePgh]

Richardson will provide some scoring for Duke whereas Nika will most likely not contribute at all to the scoring for UConn.

"...not contribute at all to the scoring for UConn "

What?!? Are you saying that assists don't contribute "at all" to scoring? In what universe is that true?

For that matter, steals, forced turnovers, and offensive rebounds also contribute "at all" to scoring.

 

[cferraro04]

Because they weren't a 12 seed, JSU was a 14 seed, which makes it even more surprising considering how well they played.

I didn't realize that they were a 14 seed...thought they were a 12. Like you said...it is even more stark based on how they played.

 

[GoUconn7961]

Hi Temery: I just have a question...not trying to be wise...just looking for an answer...why are you against the larger fonts? For the record, I do not cut and paste any of my posts. I research the information...then I write up the comments and analysis. These posts do take me all of an hour or more...to create. I have been choosing the larger fonts to make it easier for old folgies like me to be able to read them. Of course, if you really want me to stop using larger fonts I will but I just wanted to know why....I hope there is no problem in me asking.

I like it.

 

[PvP]

COMMENTS

Yeah baby we are in the sweet, sweet, sweet sixteen. It certainly wasn't an easy road for UConn to get here...injuries and foul trouble aside, catching Jackson State in the first round...no way Jackson State was a 12 seed...they were a much better team than a 12. Then Syracuse was no picnic...and when they brought UConn's lead down to 2 late in the fourth quarter I was sitting at the end of my couch...thinking unthinkable thoughts. But, KK dropped a big three and I began to breathe easier.

So, here we are in a sweet sixteen game against the Duke Blue Devils. I am trying hard to get thoughts of Jessica Foley's three-pointer at the buzzer that led to Duke's 68-67 victory over the UConn Huskies in 2004. Well, that was then and this is now! Duke is a young team they will start 1 freshman, 3 sophomores, and one senior. They bring pretty good size into the starting line-up: 6'6", 6'0", 6'0", 5'11", and 5'9". They tend to go pretty deep into the bench with 10 players averaging double-digit minutes.

Duke averages 66.9 points per game while holding their opponents to 58 points per game. They are not a prolific 3-point shooting team but when has that ever stopped UConn's opponents? It always seems that whoever UConn plays tends to give their best game. In any case, Duke averages 5.7 three-pointers per game. They pull down 38.2 rebounds per game.

UConn should be able to force this young team into turning the ball over. They average 16.7 turnovers per game while forcing their opponents to turn the ball over 17.1 times per game.

Duke's RPI is 17 and its SOS is 3 while UConn's RPI clocks in at 5 and its SOS is also 5. Duke's record is 22 and 11. They have lost to: Davidson; #6 Stamford in OT; #1 South Carolina; Clemson; #17 Louisville; #4 North Carolina State; Miami; #12 Virginia Tech; #16 Notre Dame; North Carolina; and #10 North Carolina State. Duke has beaten: #14 Virginia Tech; #23 Florida State; #17 Syracuse; #6 North Carolina State; and #7 Ohio State.

ANALYSIS

Aaliyah Edwards, 6'3" vs Kennedy Brown, 6'6" - Aaliyah had a tough game against Syracuse...clearly, the defensive scheme was to double down on Aaliyah in the paint and to bump her hard and often in order, to try to get her into foul trouble. Aaliyah managed to stay out of foul trouble but she had a hard time putting the ball in the basket. Aaliyah was able to get a hard-fought double-double with 11 points, 11 rebounds.\, and 5 assists. She was effective on the defensive end with 2 steals and 1 block. She did have 5 turnovers as the Syracuse defenders had very active hands. Normally, Aaliyah averages 17.6 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1 block per game...I think she will get back on track against Duke in this match-up. Kennedy averages 8.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.3 blocks per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers, 6'0" vs Jadyn Donovan, 6'0" - Jadyn averages 6.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.2 blocks per game. Since Jadyn averages 22.3 minutes per game look for Oluchi Okinanwa to come off the bench she averages 12.2 minutes, 9.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1 three-pointer, and 1.4 steals per game. It won't matter who is on the floor, Paige will dominate whoever she is playing off of. Paige is averaging 21.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 2.2 steals, 1.4 blocks, and 2.1 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl, 5'11" vs Reigan Richardson, 5'11" - Reigan is Duke's most effective player and Nika always wants the assignment of defending their most effective player. Size wise they match up pretty well with each other. Reigan averages 12.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.0 three-pointers, and 1.0 steals per game. Nika's defense could disrupt Reigan's game plan. Nika is averaging 6.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.5 three-pointers per game. Nika had a poor shooting night against Syracuse...probably because her defensive assignment was so demanding but, I expect to see Nika get back on track and contribute something on the scoring end. She also contributes in all the other categories and will impact her team more than Reigan does Syracuse. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" vs Aslon Jackson, 6'0" - Aslon Jackson averages 9.3 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.7 three-pointers, and 1 steal per game. Ashlynn Shade has been playing her best basketball in the post-season, which is exactly what we want to see. Ashlynn is averaging 11.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.8 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

KK Arnold, 5'9" vs Taina Muir, 5'9" - Taina averages 9.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.2 three-pointers per game. Taina is Duke's facilitator. KK will make things tough on Taina. KK averages 8.8 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.2 steals, and .8 three-pointers per game. Taina's averages are slightly better than KK's. ADVANTAGE - DUKE

BENCH

Duke will bring 23.6 points and 14.8 rebounds off the bench. They also have Camilla Emsbo, 6'5" on the bench. She averages 15.1 minutes, 4.4 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks per game. UConn will have available 11.1 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. UConn also has Amari DeBerry, 6'5" on the bench...but, she rarely gets minutes, and she is unfortunately, consistently inconsistent.
ADVANTAGE - DUKE

INTANGIBLES

Neutral court, UConn has the advantage in talent and experience and has found a way to win despite all the adversity that they had to deal with this season. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING

Kara has a wealth of player experience with her years of playing college basketball at Tennessee and her years in the WNBA, she has been doing a great job at Duke. Geno and his staff are unbelievably experienced and have coached in the sweet 16 many times before.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE

UConn - 75
Duke - 64

MOV - 11

I have to acknowledge that I always look forward to reading cferraro's analyses. But I think we need to call a spade a spade and point out that he was WRONG in his prognostication in last Monday's game against Syracuse. He posited that the MOV would be 7. The actual MOV was 8! This error must be recognized and not swept under the rug! It doesn't matter that many BYers, including myself, were critical of that number and expected a much higher MOV. Yes, we were wrong but so was cferraro! We can't let him get away with such errors and hope that he will do a much better job going forward!!

 

[DEpup]

I didn't realize that they were a 14 seed...thought they were a 12. Like you said...it is even more stark based on how they played.

I feel like the committee just uses a formula for the 13-16 seeds based on the conference history and probably very little on the actual teams. I bet they watch very little film on those teams.... Jackson State had some good transfers from top programs and some size which most mid majors don't have. They probably should have been a 13 seed or at least higher in the 14 seeds.

 

[YKCornelius]

My analysis of the game: Coach Lawson has groomed a team full of very smart players throughout the season in order to play very deliberately while on offensive. Make no mistake: she is not trying to "slow the game down". Instead, by using pre-planned substitution patterns involving nine players coming in and out in relatively short intervals, she is able to call different plays aimed at maximizing defensive mismatches. After a couple of plays, and before the opposing team can settle on a defensive adjustment - boom - here come a couple of subs to change the mix on the floor and execute a different, targeted scheme.
These plays often take a good bit off the shot clock to execute, so a few less offensive possessions per game, and thus lower scores.

For those attending the game, Duke substitutions will enter the game with the next two plays to convey to the remaining players on the court, much like football players bring plays entering a huddle. When subs are not coming into the game, look for plays to be called or signaled in from the Duke bench, much like baseball coaches signal for different pitches and plays.

Defensively, Duke is in the top 2-3 teams in WCBB, in my opinion. No surprise, as defense has always been a focus of Kara Lawson all the way back to her playing days under Pat Summit.

This will NOT be a boring or ugly contest for those who are purists of the women's game, or for those who are fascinated on how a coach gets a team ready for the NCAA tourney. We have two of the very best who use the entirety of the season to get their squads ready to perform as a well-oiled machine for March/April.

Geno and UConn teach a read-and-react style of offense. Duke teaches a multi-variable offense centered on exploiting mismatches and creating confusion with frequent player substitutions. Kara's approach requires smart players playing cohesively, instead of relying on superstars. When you add talent into the mix, you have Princeton on steroids, capable of winning any game, and extremely unlikely to have bad losses late in the season.

I expect a tight game throughout, with a relatively low score. I think Massey might have this one right, with a close score expanding to a 8-9 point margin of victory, as the team in the lead capitalizes on a flurry of "must-fouls" in the last 30 seconds.

I hope it is UConn. Go Huskies!

 

[Rowdy831]

If Duke plays their usual game I think that UConn will win and most likely by more than the Syracuse game. Where I have a little fear in this game if Kara decides to roll the dice and play three taller players and a couple guards. Size is the one thing talent has a hard time overcoming when the talent is short.

I thought AE played average at best last weekend and I expect her to come out and have a great weekend. Paige will be what Paige is so it will come down to how the support staff does and I think this week Nika will need to score. Duke will let Paige get hers and attempt to stop Ash and limit AE which means they win if KK and Nika can't go off to some degree. If Duke goes big then Ice will play a major role and she will need to have the same confidence she did in the Big East Tournament.

The wildcard for me is I don't know how well Duke will handle the UConn pressure defense.

 

[cferraro04]

There was an article in December about Duke (and a few others)

The idea of a Knife Kid is simple: it’s a kid running around with a knife, dangerous and unpredictable. Entertaining at first glance, until you fully register that it’s a kid with a knife, liable to hurt themselves if left unattended and likely to hurt you when you try to intervene.

A Knife Kid team is just the same: entertaining, as long as you’re not the one that has to play them because that can end very badly! They’re the kind of team that runs a high NET without actually earning an at-large bid in March, as their highest highs are offset by bewildering lows. And the past couple of weeks have seen a lot of Knife Kid teams swinging wildly and hitting everything in sight. Try to make sense of them, I dare you.


I posted on here in the fall that I can see Duke missing the tournament or making the Sweet 16.

A few examples of my favorite mercurial team

Down 17 to Stanford in the first quarter. Had a shot to win the game on the last play in regulation, missed the shot and lost by 3 in OT.
Down 15 points to SCar midway through the 3rd quarter... tied the game with 7:43 left in the 4th quarter
Down 13-1 to VPI, won the game by 17
Beat a ranked FSU squad by 42 points... could have been a 50+ pt spread easily.
Trailed Wake Forest by 17 points in the 2nd quarter.. Duke won by 23 points.
Had 27 turnovers at Syracuse, still led the Orange by 20 points in the 4th quarter
Led NC State by 20 points in the 3rd quarter
Down to Richmond 9 points at the half... won by double digits.
Down to Ohio State by 16 in 2nd quarter, won by double digits.

Of course, after we gave SCar a battle, we got blown out by a trash arse Clemson Team
Numerous examples of having single digit scoring quarters.

That is an impressive list of come-back game victories from one team in one season. I think this game will come down to whether or not UConn's defense can contain Duke's scorers. If UConn can cause turnovers and prevent Duke players from being able to do what they are used to doing...then it could be a long day for the Blue Devils. I also think that Paige will continue to take 20-plus shots if UConn is to win this game.

 

[DefenseBB]

For UConn to proceed further both Aaliyah and Nika need to show senior leadership by eliminating dumb turnovers and dumb fouls, There is simply no excuse for these mental mistakes and given our short bench, it is even more imperative they exhibit better leadership qualities. We had 13 turnovers yesterday and AE and Nika accounted for 6 of them. While Nika did a great job yesterday at not committing fouls, tomorrow will be the ultimate test that we need to hope it is not a repeat of Syracuse.

Be smart ladies, play smart.

 

[YKCornelius]

For UConn to proceed further both Aaliyah and Nika need to show senior leadership by eliminating dumb turnovers and dumb fouls, There is simply no excuse for these mental mistakes and given our short bench, it is even more imperative they exhibit better leadership qualities. We had 13 turnovers yesterday and AE and Nika accounted for 6 of them. While Nika did a great job yesterday at not committing fouls, tomorrow will be the ultimate test that we need to hope it is not a repeat of Syracuse.

Be smart ladies, play smart.

"Better leadership qualities"? "Mental mistakes"? Nika had just three turnovers to go along with 8 assists in a full 40 minutes of play. When in the history of WCBB is that type of performance from a point guard seen as anything other than commendable? Not to mention hounding the Blue Devil backcourt into a miserable shooting performance. Two of her three turnovers were in the first two minutes of the game, and the third was with seven seconds left in the 3rd quarter, NONE of her turnovers resulted in Duke points.

Aaliyah had only three turnovers - two of which were the result of dubious offensive fouls - and NONE of her three turnovers resulted in Duke points.

"Not a repeat of Syracuse"?? UConn won that game for pete's sake!!! Nika played BRILLIANT against Fair! If she does the same to JuJu for 35 minutes, I love our chances!