AAC is not a bad place for WCBB

[UcMiami]

Just wanted to do a review of the AAC after the regular season - WCBB her really isn't that bad and signs look good for improvement. (Definitely not advocating that Uconn ignore ANY offer to jump into a P5, just looking at current reality.)

1. Uconn continues to dominate - but ... for the best teams that has usually been true in WCBB in any league, and Uconn makes it look worse because they almost never give a lesser team a chance. Uconn crushes mid-level teams and often crushes ranked teams in a way other really good teams just don't. Of the P5 conferences, 2 are led by undefeated teams in conference play and a third by a one loss (due to injury?) team. The other two P5 are more competitive being led by 3 2 loss teams. (5 other conferences are led by undefeated teams, and there are 11 other mid major team with 1 loss spread between eight conferences) What parity exists does not spread deep in conferences in general.

2. USF - has been ranked almost all year in both polls - they are a really well coached team with very good basketball players that can shoot. They lose a superstar in Courtney Williams and will miss Stringfield and Jenkins as well, but I have confidence Jose will keep them tough. They have to learn to beat good teams.

3. Temple - after some questionable years, Tonya seems to have them in gear. had a big win against USF and Florida and are flirting with an at large bid to the NCAAs - have to stop taking games off against the Quinapiac.

4. Memphis - proved they can beat any team in the league not named Uconn at home, now they have to figure out this road thing.

5. Tulane - Not bad, just not good enough to beat those above them yet.

6. ECU - just a brutal year for a team that should be better. And hopefully they bounce back next year.

7. Tulsa, SMU - have played competitively against better teams this year but still a long way to go.

8. Cinci and Houston - not good.

All in all, not that different from much of the existence of the BE. We think of the last 4 years with ND and Louisville making final fours, but Louisville against Uconn probably has an MOV around 25 (including a record smack down in a NC) and ND prior to that 4th game win 2011 hadn't beaten Uconn since the FF in 2001 I think and they were seldom competitive. Neither team posed any more challenge than USF. Rutgers had a nice little run, and their were other teams that were difficult but there were also Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, Providence, Cinci, and Marquette, and St. Johns, WV, Georgetown, Villanova most years. Uconn's MOV fluctuated between 27 - 35 in conference for all of the 2000s.

 

[Plebe]

Temple has three sophomores and a junior averaging double figures in scoring. They lose their leading rebounder in Covile, but I think Temple should overtake USF has the second-best team in the conference next year. USF gets Ferreira and Laksa back, but losing Williams' scoring and Jenkins' rebounding will be massive.

 

[CocoHusky]

Just wanted to do a review of the AAC after the regular season - WCBB her really isn't that bad and signs look good for improvement. (Definitely not advocating that Uconn ignore ANY offer to jump into a P5, just looking at current reality.)


1. Uconn continues to dominate - but ... for the best teams that has usually been true in WCBB in any league, and Uconn makes it look worse because they almost never give a lesser team a chance. Uconn crushes mid-level teams and often crushes ranked teams in a way other really good teams just don't. Of the P5 conferences, 2 are led by undefeated teams in conference play and a third by a one loss (due to injury?) team. The other two P5 are more competitive being led by 3 2 loss teams. (5 other conferences are led by undefeated teams, and there are 11 other mid major team with 1 loss spread between eight conferences) What parity exists does not spread deep in conferences in general.


2. USF - has been ranked almost all year in both polls - they are a really well coached team with very good basketball players that can shoot. They lose a superstar in Courtney Williams and will miss Stringfield and Jenkins as well, but I have confidence Jose will keep them tough. They have to learn to beat good teams.


3. Temple - after some questionable years, Tonya seems to have them in gear. had a big win against USF and Florida and are flirting with an at large bid to the NCAAs - have to stop taking games off against the Quinapiac.


4. Memphis - proved they can beat any team in the league not named Uconn at home, now they have to figure out this road thing.


5. Tulane - Not bad, just not good enough to beat those above them yet.


6. ECU - just a brutal year for a team that should be better. And hopefully they bounce back next year.


7. Tulsa, SMU - have played competitively against better teams this year but still a long way to go.


8. Cinci and Houston - not good.


All in all, not that different from much of the existence of the BE. We think of the last 4 years with ND and Louisville making final fours, but Louisville against Uconn probably has an MOV around 25 (including a record smack down in a NC) and ND prior to that 4th game win 2011 hadn't beaten Uconn since the FF in 2001 I think and they were seldom competitive. Neither team posed any more challenge than USF. Rutgers had a nice little run, and their were other teams that were difficult but there were also Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, Providence, Cinci, and Marquette, and St. Johns, WV, Georgetown, Villanova most years. Uconn's MOV fluctuated between 27 - 35 in conference for all of the 2000s.

UC I could not disagree more with your conclusion. UCONN women’s basketball was going to dominate regardless of the conference ,so the MOV is this conference being close to BE is strictly coincidence. The ability of teams to dominate and compete in WCBB is highly correlated to getting top 50/100 recruits. The only teams in the AAC that have signed top 50/100 recruits are UCONN and USF- the top two teams in the league. Coincidence? Contrast that with the old big east and only go back to the class of 2009. Three of the top ten kids in the ’09 class signed with 3 different BE schools-ND, St. Johns, & Rutgers. Two of those ’09 top 10 kids (Diggins-ND and Smith-SJU) led their teams to victories over UCONN before graduating.

Louisville & Rutgers were the last to depart from the AAC but they departed with enough (Canty, Laney, Hammond, B. Smith) top 10 kids to successfully compete in their new conferences. Getting top 10 kids is not a guarantee that you are suddenly able to compete with UCONN (tOSU & Duke sure didn’t) but ND, MD, FSU, & USF sure did. Unless the Non-UCONN pipeline of top 50/100 kids materializes the UCONN MOV will not change and this conference is not where UCONN wants to be.

 

[warbler1055]

Travel expenses and long trips in addition to lesser TV money do not help any team, including UConn!!!!

 

[HGN]

Nope , the AAC is not a bad place for WCBB at all. Its up and coming and if UConn , USF , Tulane , and Temple remain a part it will be adding more teams to the Big Dance. Not too much different than when the old Big East got started. New , up and coming , with potential. With UConn carrying its banner the league continues to get exposure. One can argue that its a league of UConn and everybody else. But you might could say that if UConn was a member of any P5 over the last 3 years.

Many may say whatever about the league as long as they say it has won the last 3 Championships.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Nope , the AAC is not a bad place for WCBB at all. Its up and coming and if UConn , USF , Tulane , and Temple remain a part it will be adding more teams to the Big Dance. Not too much different than when the old Big East got started. New , up and coming , with potential. With UConn carrying its banner the league continues to get exposure. One can argue that its a league of UConn and everybody else. But you might could say that if UConn was a member of any P5 over the last 3 years.

Many may say whatever about the league as long as they say it has won the last 3 Championships.

Actually, AAC teams have won the last 2 championships. UConn was in the Big East 3 years ago. But I hope your statement will be correct in early April.

 

[Jim]

Well, two games per year against SMU and Houston doesn't do any harm when recruiting Texas kids.

 

[UcMiami]

Coco - for all of their supposed strength in recruiting Rutgers hasn't made it to the dance the last three years and is unlikely to make it this year either - that would make it seven years since they made it out of the first weekend. USF has made it to the second round two of the last three years, not great, but one of those was at the expense of Rutger, so I would not hold Rutgers up as a guiding light. Nor is St. Johns a particularly strong team to reference - Temple has had about the same success in terms of NCAA appearances over the years between Tonya and Dawn.
I grant you Louisville under Walz and ND as the strength of the BE, but ND FROM 2002-2010 had four sweet sixteens to show for their efforts, not that intimidating, and Louisville while getting to two finals has in the off years not been that impressive either and pre Walz they were an also ran.
I agree that recruiting has to pick up, but for many of the schools in the AAC 2017 or 2018 will be the first complete recruiting cycle for them being in a conference with former Big East name teams on their conference schedule. That and the energy of hosting Uconn in their arenas will hopefully generate a little better results. We will see.

 

[Gate81]

Double standard: how we UConn fans talk about the top national competitor teams (negatively more often than positively) vs. about the AAC competition (SOOOO positively)?

 

[HGN]

Actually, AAC teams have won the last 2 championships. UConn was in the Big East 3 years ago. But I hope your statement will be correct in early April.

Absolutely................Just trying to look ahead.

 

[Vowelguy]

Massey Ranking of Conferences

1. PAC 1.94
2. SEC 1.91
3. B12 1.88
4. B10 1.88
5. ACC 1.81
6. BgE 1.65
7. AAC 1.61
8. WCC 1.45
9. A10 1.45

Sagarin Ranking (central mean)

1. PAC 84.4
2. SEC 83.8
3. B10 83.3
4. B12 82.9
5. ACC 80.7
6. BgE 77.1
7. AAC 74.0
8. WCC 72.5
9. A10 71.1

 

[CocoHusky]

Coco - for all of their supposed strength in recruiting Rutgers hasn't made it to the dance the last three years and is unlikely to make it this year either - that would make it seven years since they made it out of the first weekend. USF has made it to the second round two of the last three years, not great, but one of those was at the expense of Rutger, so I would not hold Rutgers up as a guiding light. Nor is St. Johns a particularly strong team to reference - Temple has had about the same success in terms of NCAA appearances over the years between Tonya and Dawn.
I grant you Louisville under Walz and ND as the strength of the BE, but ND FROM 2002-2010 had four sweet sixteens to show for their efforts, not that intimidating, and Louisville while getting to two finals has in the off years not been that impressive either and pre Walz they were an also ran.
I agree that recruiting has to pick up, but for many of the schools in the AAC 2017 or 2018 will be the first complete recruiting cycle for them being in a conference with former Big East name teams on their conference schedule. That and the energy of hosting Uconn in their arenas will hopefully generate a little better results. We will see.

You are starting off on the wrong foot . Rutgers was in the dance last year lost to UCONN -no shame in that.

 

[EricLA]

I agree that the American is not a conference we want to stay in for any length of time. Having said that, we have 0 say in the matter and need to hope for the best down the road if we are stuck in the American for any length of time.

I'm not prepared to say Temple has turned the corner as I don't see them landing any top 100 kids with any consistency. In fact, I don't see any AAC team not named UCONN nabbing any top 100 kids. However, ECU would have been a much better team if not decimated by injuries, and Memphis and Tulane showed signs of life this year. I would say we should look forward to 6 teams in the conference having decent records (more wins than loses) including UCONN, USF, Temple, Memphis, Tulane and ECU.

Not sure what kind of trajectory the bottom half of the conference is on - if teams like SMU and Tulsa can improve some. Seems like UCF, Cinci, and Houston are doomed to be dreadful the next few years at least.

 

[Kibitzer]

Well, two games per year against SMU and Houston doesn't do any harm when recruiting Texas kids.

We can hope those occasional visits to Texas overcome the total exposure of home games in Austin, Waco, and College Station.

On second thought, I'm not sure that I like the math.

 

[UcMiami]

You are starting off on the wrong foot . Rutgers was in the dance last year lost to UCONN -no shame in that.

Whoops! I was just using the Wiki page for CViv's record and it left the post season field blank so I completely forgot about that game. It does't change the disappointment I think for Rutgers with their solid recruiting and modest results.

 

[Vowelguy]

Well, two games per year against SMU and Houston doesn't do any harm when recruiting Texas kids.

Not 2 games every year. 11 teams -> 16 game schedule (starting next year).
Will be 8 TX games in a 5 year span.