A Lesson: Virginia Tech's Struggles to Get Invited to the NCAAs

[UConnJim]

Looking back at recent history, Virginia Tech struggled to get an NCAA invite, even though they had decent records both overall and in the ACC and they finished relatively high in the conference standings.

Here is a 4 year stretch for VT in which they did not get invited to the NCAAs:

2007/2008: 19-13, 9-7 in ACC, 4th place
2008/2009: 17-13, 7-9 in ACC, tied for 7th
2009/2010: 23-8, 10-6 in ACC, tied for 3rd
2010/2011: 21-11, 9-7 in ACC, tied for 4th

In three of the four years, VT had winning records in the ACC and were at least tied for 4th in the conference, but only went to the NIT.

Why did this happen?

Primarily due to Strength of Schedule. For example, in 2009/2010, VT had a record of 23-8 (10-6 in ACC), an overall SOS of 133 and an OOC SOS of 339. Their RPI was 59. (By the way, this team beat UConn in the NIT 2nd round that year.)

SMU's experience this year looks a lot like VT's experience.

The lesson: All AAC teams need to be pressured to beef up their OOC schedules and the possibility of playing a 20 game conference schedule needs to be scrapped.

 

[upstater]

Looking back at recent history, Virginia Tech struggled to get an NCAA invite, even though they had decent records both overall and in the ACC and they finished relatively high in the conference standings.

Here is a 4 year stretch for VT in which they did not get invited to the NCAAs:

2007/2008: 19-13, 9-7 in ACC, 4th place
2008/2009: 17-13, 7-9 in ACC, tied for 7th
2009/2010: 23-8, 10-6 in ACC, tied for 3rd
2010/2011: 21-11, 9-7 in ACC, tied for 4th

In three of the four years, VT had winning records in the ACC and were at least tied for 4th in the conference, but only went to the NIT.

Why did this happen?

Primarily due to Strength of Schedule. For example, in 2009/2010, VT had a record of 23-8 (10-6 in ACC), an overall SOS of 133 and an OOC SOS of 339. Their RPI was 59. (By the way, this team beat UConn in the NIT 2nd round that year.)

SMU's experience this year looks a lot like VT's experience.

The lesson: All AAC teams need to be pressured to beef up their OOC schedules and the possibility of playing a 20 game conference schedule needs to be scrapped.

I buy this.

What is putrid however is the idea that a low major ranked #153 in the RPI is somehow a much more impressive win than a team ranked #300. The difference between playing Vermont or Maine could be the difference between the NCAA and NIT. But you have to be nostradamus to figure out which teams are going to be in the top 150. Heck, Indiana and Washington finished #101 and #104.

I tend to think you could lock up a bunch of Nate Silvers in a room and they'd be much more capable of putting less emphasis on the RPI and more emphasis on the schedule. They'd be able to differentiate between a win over Indiana and a win over NJIT.

 

[UConnJim]

Think of how bad your OOC schedule has to be to be ranked 339! There were only 347 schools that year! The problem is not playing a team with an RPI of 300, but when you AVERAGE 339, that is bad!

 

[UConnJim]

This sort of thing is still going to hurt UConn in the future. UConn had 9 wins over 200+ teams. St. Louis only had 4. Yet you look at St. Louis's cupcakes, and they are still cupcakes.

It's up to UConn. The OOC schedule did not work this year as some of the teams had bad years. Look at these RPIs:

Maryland 83, BC 206, Indiana 103, Washington 104. Not what UConn expected when they were scheduled. Fortunately, Florida ended up a 1, Stanford was decent at 40, Harvard was a 46, and BU pulled a 86.

But, nobody forced UConn to schedule these teams:

Detroit 229, Loyola (Md) 275, Maine 330, Eastern Washington 228, Yale 150

With the bottom of the AAC, we can't schedule many if any teams with RPIs > 150.

 

[itgoeslike]

It's up to UConn. The OOC schedule did not work this year as some of the teams had bad years. Look at these RPIs:

Maryland 83, BC 206, Indiana 103, Washington 104. Not what UConn expected when they were scheduled. Fortunately, Florida ended up a 1, Stanford was decent at 40, and BU pulled a 86.

But, nobody forced UConn to schedule these teams:

Detroit 229, Loyola (Md) 275, Maine 330, Eastern Washington 228, Yale 150

With the bottom of the AAC, we can't schedule many if any teams with RPIs > 150.

We also played Harvard.

 

[itgoeslike]

Somebody on another thread proposed playing the SEC OOC, which makes sense. The SEC has an RPI problem like the AAC. If the top teams from both conferences agreed to play each other on a regular basis it could help offset some of the bottom teams from their respective conference.

 

[tcf15]

@NoEscalotors on Twitter was talking about upcoming scheduling concerns, and introduced me to an interesting website: http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Connecticut.html

On that website, you can drop teams from UConn's current schedule to see how it impacts their RPI & SOS. Dropping Detroit, Loyola (MD), Maine, EWU & Yale results in our RPI jumping from 22 to 14 and our SOS from 30 to 3.

Next year, it determines who we replace them with, and I don't know if we had a choice in scheduling Detroit, as we played them as part of the 2K Sports Classic. But I hope we do start scheduling teams only in RPI 150.

 

[itgoeslike]

I bookmarked it.

 

[UConnJim]

This sort of thing is still going to hurt UConn in the future. UConn had 9 wins over 200+ teams. St. Louis only had 4. Yet you look at St. Louis's cupcakes, and they are still cupcakes.

This sort of thing is still going to hurt UConn in the future. UConn had 9 wins over 200+ teams. St. Louis only had 4. Yet you look at St. Louis's cupcakes, and they are still cupcakes.

St. Louis had a bad OOC schedule, but they benefitted by playing Wichita St at 4 and Wisconsin as a 6. But, UConn played 8 teams OOC with RPI of

@NoEscalotors on Twitter was talking about upcoming scheduling concerns, and introduced me to an interesting website: http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Connecticut.html

On that website, you can drop teams from UConn's current schedule to see how it impacts their RPI & SOS. Dropping Detroit, Loyola (MD), Maine, EWU & Yale results in our RPI jumping from 22 to 14 and our SOS from 30 to 3.

Next year, it determines who we replace them with, and I don't know if we had a choice in scheduling Detroit, as we played them as part of the 2K Sports Classic. But I hope we do start scheduling teams only in RPI 150.

It really is that simple. UConn needs to schedule OOC games better in the future to offset potential conference weakness. Mercifully, I think the AAC snub by the NCAAs this year will scrap any plans for a 20 game conference schedule.

 

[UConn9604]

Think of how bad your OOC schedule has to be to be ranked 339! There were only 347 schools that year! The problem is not playing a team with an RPI of 300, but when you AVERAGE 339, that is bad!

It's like the old George Carlin line: Think about how stupid the average person is, then realize: half of them are stupider than that.

 

[freescooter]

The problem as I have been saying for ever is that the RPI makes distinctions where there are no differences and differences where there are no distinctions. In other words, it doesn't matter once you get past about 75, certainly by 150.Pretty much every team with an RPI over 150 is not a very good. In reality it doesn't matter which one of them we schedule. It only matters in some bizzarro universe. For example, BC is a bad team. RPI 206. Is it appreciably better than Loyola Maryland at 229, or even Maine at 330? BC games against either would be pick 'em. And BC's RPI is artificially high due to its ACC schedule. A system that gives you more points, and the RPI weighs SOS more than any other factor, based on who you play rather than results is going to reward some teams artificially and penalize others, over factors that people don't control and that don't really measure what they claim to measure. UConn can't control what Indiana does. Or look at Detroit. Last year they were somewhere in the high 60s. This year they fell off the map.

 

[itgoeslike]

RPI is the rotary telephone of ranking methodology.

 

[freescooter]

When you looked at our schedule this year, Indiana was a huge disappointment (and imagine if you were an Indian fan how you felt), but Detroit is a really good example of how some programs can really change. Whe I looked at the schedule, I thought they'd be a pretty decent game. A team we sould beat, but not Eastern Washington. After all, they went to the tournament in 2012 and the NIT in 2013, won 20 games 3 of the previous 4 years. Generally speaking a very solid mid-major. This year they were terrible an probably hurt our RPI. How do you predict that? I honestly believe though, that the Committee wouldn't have viewed a bad Indiana team as detrimental to our schedule because it was after all Indiana (and its RPI is artificially inflated by playing in the Big 10). Its mid-majors like Detroit that give you heartburn. Look good when you schedule them, but aren't when you actually play them and there is no cache to the name.

 

[aceboon]

When you looked at our schedule this year, Indiana was a huge disappointment (and imagine if you were an Indian fan how you felt), but Detroit is a really good example of how some programs can really change. Whe I looked at the schedule, I thought they'd be a pretty decent game. A team we sould beat, but not Eastern Washington. After all, they went to the tournament in 2012 and the NIT in 2013, won 20 games 3 of the previous 4 years. Generally speaking a very solid mid-major. This year they were terrible an probably hurt our RPI. How do you predict that? I honestly believe though, that the Committee wouldn't have viewed a bad Indiana team as detrimental to our schedule because it was after all Indiana (and its RPI is artificially inflated by playing in the Big 10). Its mid-majors like Detroit that give you heartburn. Look good when you schedule them, but aren't when you actually play them and there is no cache to the name.

Detroit lost their best player Ray McCallum, a McDonalds AA who could've went anywhere but played for his pops. I also think they lost a couple of more experienced players who started for them, had to expect they would take a stepback with losing McCallum, he's an NBA player and mid majors don't get those all too often.

 

[freescooter]

A step back is one thing. They fell off a cliff.