What the results of the Division 1 transformation committee may look like:

[shizzle787]

Greg Sankey and the rest of the Division 1 transformation committee have been working on transforming the division. I believe that is short-hand for a shrinking of Division 1. There have already been whiskers that Sankey has hinted at eliminating AQs in the NCAA tournament and/or thinning out the heard.

I, however, am not one of those who believe that that means a P2 or P5 breakaway in all sports or even in football. There is too much money in an expanded CFP and the current NCAA tournament structure. I do however believe that we will see a split in Division 1 like we did in the early 1980s, only this time it will be for all sports.

Here are the conferences and teams who I believe will make the cut for the new Division 1:

The ten FBS conferences:
SEC
B1G
Pac-12
ACC
Big 12
MW
AAC
Sun Belt
MAC
C-USA

The four prominent non-FBS basketball leagues:
Big East
A-10
WCC
MVC

The two leagues housing FBS programs and also for academic reasons:
Big West (Hawaii)
Patriot (Army and Navy)

You know who:
Ivy League

The two leagues who will get in for political/geographic reasons:
CAA
SWAC

The three leagues who get in for geographic (state flagship) reasons:
America East (UVM, Maine, UNH)
Big Sky (Montana, Montana State, Idaho, Idaho State)
Summit (NDSU, SDSU, UND, USD)

The remaining leagues do not make the cut (the top three making an argument for inclusion but falling short; some of their members find homes in Division 1 leagues):
MAAC
Southern
WAC

Horizon
A-Sun
MEAC
Big South
Southland
NEC
OVC

If this happens, 262 schools would remain in Division 1. There would be 22 conferences. That would mean the tournament could in theory go back to 64 and there would be 22 AQs and 42 at large bids- a win for everyone who makes the cut.

 

[Billy Jack]

I’m not sure how this helps the tournament or the 22 conferences left in it.

 

[bobbyinaz]

I’m not sure how this helps the tournament or the 22 conferences left in it.

If they are going to cull the herd IMO, it will be way less than 262 schools.

Everyone looks at the $1B (or close to it) that the NCAA gets from the hoops tournament and says that there is no way they will put that money at risk. According to this, the most any conference received was $36MM:

March Madness — ACC, Big Ten Earn $36.4 Million in NCAA Tournament

The ACC and Big Ten made the most money in the 2022 NCAA Tournament.

www.basketballinsiders.com

I don't think the P2 breakaway and create their own tournament, but I do think that they will figure out a way to make more than $36MM/year on a product that the NCAA is receiving roughly $1B for.

The easiest way to keep more for themselves is to have less they need to share it with.

 

[freescooter]

If they are going to cull the herd IMO, it will be way less than 262 schools.

Everyone looks at the $1B (or close to it) that the NCAA gets from the hoops tournament and says that there is no way they will put that money at risk. According to this, the most any conference received was $36MM:

March Madness — ACC, Big Ten Earn $36.4 Million in NCAA Tournament

The ACC and Big Ten made the most money in the 2022 NCAA Tournament.

www.basketballinsiders.com

I don't think the P2 breakaway and create their own tournament, but I do think that they will figure out a way to make more than $36MM/year on a product that the NCAA is receiving roughly $1B for.

The easiest way to keep more for themselves is to have less they need to share it with.

I don’t think it is impossible that they break away. More likely they reduce the number of D1 programs. I think it is more likely to be 150-175, not 250. Half make the tournament, which is “standard” for major conferences now anyway.

 

[CL82]

They don’t have to break away, they can just hold their own tournament and sell the rights to it to someone other than CBS. They can even invite other schools to participate in their tournaments. As long as the payout is bigger than the NCAA tournaments and it has roughly equal exposure, they will get people to come.

 

[dayooper]

They don’t have to break away, they can just hold their own tournament and sell the rights to it to someone other than CBS. They can even invite other schools to participate in their tournaments. As long as the payout is bigger than the NCAA tournaments and it has roughly equal exposure, they will get people to come.

At one point, the NIT was as highly regarded (or even more so) than the NCAA.

 

[ScottVib]

I think you'll see new requirements for the divisions... essentially the top division (probably some goofy name like the "Autonomous Division") will end up as whomever commits to fully funding at whatever level is set by the current autonomous conferences.... and I suspect that fully funding football will be a part of those requirements. Those programs that choose not to (or more likely cannot) meet the funding standards will end up in the next division, under the "Division 1" name.

Edit - Wanted to add is the schools would opt into their classification, not be invited into the classification, this is an important distinction to avoid any congressional interference. If your state U commits to funding things then they can join the Autonomous club, otherwise they stay in "Division 1"

 

[Billy Jack]

If they are going to cull the herd IMO, it will be way less than 262 schools.

Everyone looks at the $1B (or close to it) that the NCAA gets from the hoops tournament and says that there is no way they will put that money at risk. According to this, the most any conference received was $36MM:

March Madness — ACC, Big Ten Earn $36.4 Million in NCAA Tournament

The ACC and Big Ten made the most money in the 2022 NCAA Tournament.

www.basketballinsiders.com

I don't think the P2 breakaway and create their own tournament, but I do think that they will figure out a way to make more than $36MM/year on a product that the NCAA is receiving roughly $1B for.

The easiest way to keep more for themselves is to have less they need to share it with.

The reason they don’t receive more money is that the NCAA as an organization keeps 40% of the tournament revenue for themselves, not because too much money is going to other conferences.

 

[noeynox]

They don’t have to break away, they can just hold their own tournament and sell the rights to it to someone other than CBS. They can even invite other schools to participate in their tournaments. As long as the payout is bigger than the NCAA tournaments and it has roughly equal exposure, they will get people to come.

They can call it "March Mayhem"

 

[CL82]

They can call it "March Mayhem"

And after the inevitable copyright infringement suit they can come back with “College Craziness” or better yet have Lunardi seed the teams and call it “Lunardi Looniness.”

 

[bobbyinaz]

The reason they don’t receive more money is that the NCAA as an organization keeps 40% of the tournament revenue for themselves, not because too much money is going to other conferences.

They are both the reasons why they don't get more money.

The NCAA is the obvious one but any dollar that goes somewhere other than their coffers is lost revenue.

Sharing money w conferences like the NEC & MAAC to the Big 2 is money they are giving away. It doesn't matter how much it is.

 

[Billy Jack]

Not usually a great idea to mess with a winning formula.

 

[bobbyinaz]

Not usually a great idea to mess with a winning formula.

Winning formula for who? The NCAA keeps around $400MM/year for themselves while the most any single conference can make is $35-40MM.

How is that a winning formula for the conferences? There is no way they allow that disparity to continue.

 

[Billy Jack]

Winning formula for who? The NCAA keeps around $400MM/year for themselves while the most any single conference can make is $35-40MM.

How is that a winning formula for the conferences? There is no way they allow that disparity to continue.

Someone’s got to pay the bills at the NCAA offices. Football refuses to do so. Last time that the B1G considered going it alone, they looked at all of the services that the B1G provides and decided that trying to replace that was more than they wanted to take on, that it wasn’t worth the trouble.

When I say that it is a winning formula, I mean that it generates enormous interest and huge revenue. If the P? whatever think that they can come up with a system which will provide them with more revenue, I’m sure they’ll go for it. I’m saying that it isn’t as simple as a different distribution system or a smaller number of conferences. They have a system which has proven itself. If they replace it with something else, they just might find themselves getting a bigger share of a smaller pie. The current formula is already lopsidedly in favor of the P6 except for the money kept by the NCAA itself, and those expenses have to be funded by the colleges or replaced by something else, which will have its own costs.

Simply being greedy and demanding more money isn’t a solution. There needs to be an adult in the room who looks at the hard realities of the situation.

 

[freescooter]

There is something to that. The NCAA does provide some significant structure that someone else needs to provide. Brando keeps talking about a football commissioner, which if fine, but if it is a true commissioner, he is going to have layers of staff and offices and at some point he is going to discipline somebody (Alabama?) for violating some rule. Hey Goodall makes about $50 million. The NFL frontboffice budget exceeds 1/2 billion

 

[Billy Jack]

There is something to that. The NCAA does provide some significant structure that someone else needs to provide. Brando keeps talking about a football commissioner, which if fine, but if it is a true commissioner, he is going to have layers of staff and offices and at some point he is going to discipline somebody (Alabama?) for violating some rule. Hey Goodall makes about $50 million. The NFL frontboffice budget exceeds 1/2 billion

Yes, and it’s not just football, it’s all sports.

 

[freescooter]

Another pretty important thing they do, which might sound silly, is the provide a consistent set of rules for each sport. Back in the 1990s the Real Big East experimented with 6 fouls. It was something of a mess when those teams played non-conference games especially in the tournament. But one could see a situation where a conference with particular strengths, had a set of rules that benefitted that, while another had something different that played to its strength.