UConn #2 Rk Frosh vs. Oregon #1 Rk Frosh



DefenseBB

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As a reminder, tonight has Oregon Ducks vs. Stanford Cardinal (9 PM ESPN2) and on the General board game notification thread by @Shades (awesome job by him for all important Games!), I noted I want to see how the Oregon freshman looked especially after the Oregon game last week against Arizona and the comments Kelly Graves made about "Freshman hitting the wall".
That prompted me to look at the full set of game states by each teams freshman class to assess their progress. While digging into the rankings and stats, I was reminded how poor the HG former ratings were. They listed Nika Muhl as a "90", same ranking as Piath. Meanwhile they had Maddie Scherr as "98". :confused:. One other item to note, UConn has played 17 games to Oregon's 16.

Anyway, while looking at the usual stat lines of Games played, minutes, FG%, FGA, FGM, 3pt%, 3PA, 3PM, FT%, FTA, FTM, Reb, Assists, Turnovers, Blocks, Steals and Points and Point contribution per each game, I found that UConn led in 16 of the 18 categories! Only 3 pt shots attempted per game and lower turnovers per game did Oregon lead UConn. The Minutes are close as UConn freshman play 41% (81.4 mins per 200) of the game minutes vs. 39% for Oregon (77.3 mins per 200).

Some pretty cool stats as both teams freshman are playing well: UConn's account for 43% of the scoring while Oregon contributes 35%. While UConn has more assists (151-118) they also have more turnovers (111-83) so the Oregon ration A/To is better at 1.42-1.36. Both stats for Freshman are remarkable.

Last point for the stats, player averages will not reconcile to the team averages as not all the freshman played in every game-Autumn's averages are for only 8 games she's been in of the UConn 17 games played.
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Something looks fishy in your per-game totals for UConn, especially in rebounds and assists. If Paige has 4.7 RPG and Aaliyah has 4.5, how can the UConn total be 2.6? Likewise, if Paige has 5.7 assists per game, how can the UConn total be 1.8? The turnover column may have a similar issue.
 
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There is some error with your Reb, A and TO column totals for Uconn.
 
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I guess I’m just not very smart but if we have played 17 games, why hasn’t anyone played in 17?
 

EricLA

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I'm guessing UCONN's numbers are some sort of average whereas Oregon's numbers are a total sum. Either way, regardless, I greatly appreciate @DefenseBB taking the time to not only put this together, but also to post it. It's almost always a thankless job when someone puts stats out on the BY because our posters are such sleuths, any mis-step is immediately called out! ;)

But I do want to commend him for trying to get the colors right - blue for UCONN, yellow for Oregon!

Bottom line, if you look at the top 4 for each school, UCONN's #1 has performed better than Oregon's. UCONN's #2 has performed better than Oregon's, etc. Altho Muhl has only come on late, and one may need to compare her to another guard for Oregon...

Don't get me wrong - great class for Oregon. Kudos to them - and Paopao is far better than I thought she would be. I saw her play twice, was unimpressed, and criticized her ranking move into the top 10. I was wrong! (yeah it happens once in a blue moon LOL).

I look forward to playing them in the very near future. I wonder if they have a good shot at Cunningham (the other great player from the San Diego area along with Brady and Paopao).
 
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Still hard for me to believe that PB is averaging 'only' 2.4 steals a game. I could swear she was closer to 4. Maybe she didn't have many in the first 8-10 games...
 

DefenseBB

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Here are the HoopGurlz rankings and skill score. I had to go with lighter versions of the school colors as I wanted the numbers to pop. While Oregon is Yellow, I went with amber for some reason...

@EricLA numbers are similar so not sure what you think is different on the averages. Remember the "averages" will not total to the Team averages as not all players participate in every game. The colored lines represent the full 16 or 17 game average (total divided by 16 or 17 games).

1613411907673.png
 

jonson

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Here are the HoopGurlz rankings and skill score. I had to go with lighter versions of the school colors as I wanted the numbers to pop. While Oregon is Yellow, I went with amber for some reason...

@EricLA numbers are similar so not sure what you think is different on the averages. Remember the "averages" will not total to the Team averages as not all players participate in every game. The colored lines represent the full 16 or 17 game average (total divided by 16 or 17 games).

View attachment 64631
I think there are 2 things to consider in this regard: 1) one is Paige Bueckers, whose stellar play has decreased the pressure on everyone else in a UCONN uniform (there is no such player at Oregon with the talent and, so far and just as important, leadership qualities that she has); and 2) Oregon hasn't been able to pair the freshmen (really 7 of them since neither Sabally or Prince had not played a single minute of college ball before this season) with anything like the upperclass group at UCONN. (And I say this despite the shortcomings of both Williams and Ono.) In short, there hasn't been much help at Oregon--either from the upperclass group there or from within the freshmen themselves.
 

DefenseBB

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I think there are 2 things to consider in this regard: 1) one is Paige Bueckers, whose stellar play has decreased the pressure on everyone else in a UCONN uniform (there is no such player at Oregon with the talent and, so far and just as important, leadership qualities that she has); and 2) Oregon hasn't been able to pair the freshmen (really 7 of them since neither Sabally or Prince had not played a single minute of college ball before this season) with anything like the upperclass group at UCONN. (And I say this despite the shortcomings of both Williams and Ono.) In short, there hasn't been much help at Oregon--either from the upperclass group there or from within the freshmen themselves.
Agreed that Boley, Chavez and Mikesell are not of the same ilk at CW, ONO and EW. That said, Kelly should be playing Parrish and Dugalic more than he is. Especially if the non-freshman are not as talented. While you note UConn's better skilled upperclassman, Muhl and Edwards have more minutes than anyone but Paopao. That seems counterintuitive to your argument. Why is Kelly playing Mikesell, Chavez and Boley so much?
 
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I like PaoPao, but Paige is having amazing season. I like Muhl just as much, if not more, than their other guard in the class, Scherr. Dugalic has a lot of upside but I think Edwards has been playing better. Parrish talented and ranked higher as shown above but to me, Poffenbarger will bring a lot of the same skill sets, length, 3 point shooting, I think UConn class just has more upside long term than Oregon's. Didn't even mention Mir but Oregon's class doesn't have a single athlete of Mir's caliber.
 
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I like PaoPao, but Paige is having amazing season. I like Muhl just as much, if not more, than their other guard in the class, Scherr. Dugalic has a lot of upside but I think Edwards has been playing better. Parrish talented and ranked higher as shown above but to me, Poffenbarger will bring a lot of the same skill sets, length, 3 point shooting, I think UConn class just has more upside long term than Oregon's. Didn't even mention Mir but Oregon's class doesn't have a single athlete of Mir's caliber.
As a reminder, tonight has Oregon Ducks vs. Stanford Cardinal (9 PM ESPN2) and on the General board game notification thread by @Shades (awesome job by him for all important Games!), I noted I want to see how the Oregon freshman looked especially after the Oregon game last week against Arizona and the comments Kelly Graves made about "Freshman hitting the wall".
That prompted me to look at the full set of game states by each teams freshman class to assess their progress. While digging into the rankings and stats, I was reminded how poor the HG former ratings were. They listed Nika Muhl as a "90", same ranking as Piath. Meanwhile they had Maddie Scherr as "98". :confused:. One other item to note, UConn has played 17 games to Oregon's 16.

Anyway, while looking at the usual stat lines of Games played, minutes, FG%, FGA, FGM, 3pt%, 3PA, 3PM, FT%, FTA, FTM, Reb, Assists, Turnovers, Blocks, Steals and Points and Point contribution per each game, I found that UConn led in 16 of the 18 categories! Only 3 pt shots attempted per game and lower turnovers per game did Oregon lead UConn. The Minutes are close as UConn freshman play 41% (81.4 mins per 200) of the game minutes vs. 39% for Oregon (77.3 mins per 200).

Some pretty cool stats as both teams freshman are playing well: UConn's account for 43% of the scoring while Oregon contributes 35%. While UConn has more assists (151-118) they also have more turnovers (111-83) so the Oregon ration A/To is better at 1.42-1.36. Both stats for Freshman are remarkable.

Last point for the stats, player averages will not reconcile to the team averages as not all the freshman played in every game-Autumn's averages are for only 8 games she's been in of the UConn 17 games played.
View attachment 64630
I believe the game is at 7PM ESPN2
As a reminder, tonight has Oregon Ducks vs. Stanford Cardinal (9 PM ESPN2) and on the General board game notification thread by @Shades (awesome job by him for all important Games!), I noted I want to see how the Oregon freshman looked especially after the Oregon game last week against Arizona and the comments Kelly Graves made about "Freshman hitting the wall".
That prompted me to look at the full set of game states by each teams freshman class to assess their progress. While digging into the rankings and stats, I was reminded how poor the HG former ratings were. They listed Nika Muhl as a "90", same ranking as Piath. Meanwhile they had Maddie Scherr as "98". :confused:. One other item to note, UConn has played 17 games to Oregon's 16.

Anyway, while looking at the usual stat lines of Games played, minutes, FG%, FGA, FGM, 3pt%, 3PA, 3PM, FT%, FTA, FTM, Reb, Assists, Turnovers, Blocks, Steals and Points and Point contribution per each game, I found that UConn led in 16 of the 18 categories! Only 3 pt shots attempted per game and lower turnovers per game did Oregon lead UConn. The Minutes are close as UConn freshman play 41% (81.4 mins per 200) of the game minutes vs. 39% for Oregon (77.3 mins per 200).

Some pretty cool stats as both teams freshman are playing well: UConn's account for 43% of the scoring while Oregon contributes 35%. While UConn has more assists (151-118) they also have more turnovers (111-83) so the Oregon ration A/To is better at 1.42-1.36. Both stats for Freshman are remarkable.

Last point for the stats, player averages will not reconcile to the team averages as not all the freshman played in every game-Autumn's averages are for only 8 games she's been in of the UConn 17 games played.
View attachment 64630
I believe the game is 7PM on ESPN2
 
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I feel like Graves has struggled trying to find his best rotation this year. He normally plays 10 players the first quarter.

In the Arizona game he had Sabally, Prince and Dugalic on the floor at the same time in the 3rd with Dugalic bringing the ball up more than once (I assume to try to relieve pressure on Paopao due to Arizona D) and taking multiple 3 point shots. In her breakout game she had buckets in the paint.

While board members grind their teeth at the inconsistent play of our upper class, the production of their non 1st year players has been much more concerning. Primarily the lack of a reliable back up ball handler, which should be Shelley, means more pressure and minutes for Paopao. Now compare that to our team who has Muhl and Westbrook. Also Oregon St. looks a much better team with the addition of TvO to balance their rotation.
 
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This just proves the significance of how these services just really don't properly account for international players. They really should say that is the X rated recruiting class of American players. Aaliyah was underrated and Nika just didn't even get a real score. A real assessment for those two makes UConn #1 class easily. Plus, Paige is just so much better than everyone else in the class that she alone should have made any school she went to the #1 recruiting class.
 
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In terms of overall class rankings, HG's class ratings are pretty much irrelevant for any foreign players. Any team that has a significant incoming foreign player will be undervalued in their class rankings because HG doesn't even try to properly rate those. For comparing US players they may be relevant, but even then I would put my money on Blue Star or Prospect Nation being a better predictor than HG.

HG is most often referenced IMO for one and only one reason. Their affiliation with ESPN.
 

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