Very interesting discussion on the portal on Sirius ESPNU today. They had a guest on who has an analytics company focused on the portal. They consult with colleges and provide public info as well. They have analyzed how much contribution portal kids can provide compared to high school recruits and many other insights.
He said November set a record month for the portal and December will surpass it. He said we are in phase 1 of the portal season with phase 2 occurring after Spring ball.
From memory, here are some portal insights:
Including FBS, FCS, D2, and D3 kids there are ~4,000 kids in the portal.
Last year, only 53% of FBS kids that went into the portal ended up finding a home. The percentage was much lower for other division kids. In 2022, he expects a slightly higher percentage of FBS kids will find a home, maybe 55% to 60% due to the increased scholarship numbers. In other words, if you enter the portal at an FBS school, it’s about a 50% chance to play football again.
About 3% of kids that enter the portal return to their teams.
They measure production from transfers. In FBS, transfers account for ~15% of rushing and receiving production. Passing yardage is ~30%, but it has usually been high as QBs have been most apt to transfer.
How do you compare portal kids vs. HS kids? Bottom line, it comes down to experience. Bringing in 3rd, 4th, and 5th year players that are developed and have tape that you can evaluate provides help, but there is really no difference between a 1st year transfer player and a redshirt freshman already on the roster. The real opportunities for finding upgrades are with experienced players buried on the depth chart.