OT: Tourney Case for Kansas State

[Hey Adrien!]

Lots of talk on whether or not Kansas State should make the tournament:

• 14-11
• 63 NET
• 56 KenPom
• 5-8 Q1, 2-3 Q2, 7-0 Q 3&4
• 4-1 in last five games (wins over Iowa State, Oklahoma State, TCU, West Virginia, all teams between 45-65 KenPom...only loss to Baylor)
• 13th toughest schedule overall
• 272nd toughest OOC schedule (wins over Wichita State and Nebraska are best OOC wins. 3rd best OOC win: take your pick from Albany, North Dakota, Green Bay.)
• Only OOC loses to Illinois, Marquette and Arkansas
• "Worst" loss 56-67 to Ole Miss (KP 107). "Second Worst" loss 68-71 to West Virginia (KP 64)
• Their last five B12 games: Oklahoma State, Kansas, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma. Let's say they go 3-2 in that stretch and assuming they don't win the B12...is 14 losses too many?

What do you all think?

As Makingthemadness.com writer Jonathon Warriner mentions, this reminds him of a lot of Archie Miller Indiana teams: "good teams" with bad records. For example, in 18-19 Indiana was 19-16, but had a #52 KenPom. 19-20 Indiana went 20-12 and had a #34 KenPom.

 

[August_West]

What is real interesting to me is Iowa state:

Record: 16-9 overall, 3-9 in Big 12 play

NET ranking: 43

KenPom ranking: 45

Seven Quadrant 1 wins; only six other teams in the country have seven or more.


How can you put a 3-9 team in a tournament?

 

[storrsroars]

What is real interesting to me is Iowa state:

Record: 16-9 overall, 3-9 in Big 12 play

NET ranking: 43

KenPom ranking: 45

Seven Quadrant 1 wins; only six other teams in the country have seven or more.


How can you put a 3-9 team in a tournament?

No team has ever gotten a bid being last in their conference. And that's where Iowa St. is now, tied with WVU. Six games left, five are winnable, the other is Baylor. IMO, they don't need to finish .500, but would have to go at least 4-2 for a 7-11 conference record. And they have to beat WVU as one of those four.

 

[CTBasketball]

Neither should make it!

 

[shizzle787]

If Iowa State goes 2-4 to finish conference play, they could finish last and make the field.

 

[Ricker]

It would make a difference to me if any of their better wins were against undermanned teams. Ole miss is also an OOC loss correct? We'll see what the competition is on the bubble.

 

[HuskyHawk]

What is real interesting to me is Iowa state:

Record: 16-9 overall, 3-9 in Big 12 play

NET ranking: 43

KenPom ranking: 45

Seven Quadrant 1 wins; only six other teams in the country have seven or more.


How can you put a 3-9 team in a tournament?

Teams with losing conference records have gotten in. But nothing quite as bad at that.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/02/16/this-ncaa-tournament-getting-with-losing-conference-record-isnt-such-stretch/

 

[pepband99]

All I want this year is #onebidacc .

I know it won't happen, for a multitude of reasons, but man, the ACC is TRASH this year.

 

[August_West]

Teams with losing conference records have gotten in. But nothing quite as bad at that.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/02/16/this-ncaa-tournament-getting-with-losing-conference-record-isnt-such-stretch/

Thats what Im saying. I mean old days, .500 in conference was the bottom. Thats changed a little bit recently to a game or 2 under, but 3-9? yikes.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Thats what Im saying. I mean old days, .500 in conference was the bottom. Thats changed a little bit recently to a game or 2 under, but 3-9? yikes.

I remember bitching when I first saw it, I think it was Bama or Georgia, and of course the made it to the second weekend and shut me up. Obviously, UConn fans should know you can go far with a mediocre conference record. But Iowa State needs to win some games.

K-State should be ineligible due to inflicting their throwback jerseys on the modern world.

 

[7774]

What is real interesting to me is Iowa state:

Record: 16-9 overall, 3-9 in Big 12 play

NET ranking: 43

KenPom ranking: 45

Seven Quadrant 1 wins; only six other teams in the country have seven or more.


How can you put a 3-9 team in a tournament?

Well they won't even look at conference record, so that will help.

 

[aburks41]

Thats what Im saying. I mean old days, .500 in conference was the bottom. Thats changed a little bit recently to a game or 2 under, but 3-9? yikes.

To be fair, we were 9-9 in 2011 and got a 3 seed in the tournament. So I'm not sure how badly you can get dinged for going .500 in conference. But obviously the 2022 Big 12 is not even close to being as stacked the 2011 Big East was.

Theres only 36 at large bids. Assuming there's no bid stealers, you realistically need to be within the top 44 to have a shot since 8 of those top 44 teams will be from the P6 + AAC + MWC autobids. If you are sitting in the mid 50's and 60's, no way are you getting in.

 

[August_West]

To be fair, we were 9-9 in 2011 and got a 3 seed in the tournament. So I'm not sure how badly you can get dinged for going .500 in conference. But obviously the 2022 Big 12 is not even close to being as stacked the 2011 Big East was.

Theres only 36 at large bids. Assuming there's no bid stealers, you realistically need to be within the top 44 to have a shot since 8 of those top 44 teams will be from the P6 + AAC + MWC autobids. If you are sitting in the mid 50's and 60's, no way are you getting in.

We only got a 3 because of the 5 in 5 days BET win. Otherwise we were a 6 at best.

 

[auror]

If they go 3-2, they probably get in, but they're going to be underdogs in 3 of those games.

 

[uconnfan68]

Thats what Im saying. I mean old days, .500 in conference was the bottom. Thats changed a little bit recently to a game or 2 under, but 3-9? yikes.

But, but, but… Power 5!!