The next dominoes (October 6 edition) | The Boneyard

The next dominoes (October 6 edition)

shizzle787

King Shizzle DCCLXXXVII of the Cesspool
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Since my last version, the main news has been the interviews with the CSU and AFA ADs. I've been wrestling with a few ways that this could all play out but we begin with the Mountain West.

I believe they will try to expand and will put out feelers to Gonzaga, Wichita State, Memphis, SMU, and Tulsa. I believe they will be rebuffed by all.
The AAC schools will stay east for the same reasons the MW schools stayed west: regional familiarity and apathy towards making a lateral move.

Gonzaga will stay in the WCC because they can replace the 2 BYU games in effect with 2 OOC games against schools from major leagues. Also, they value their ESPN exposure. For now, I think they stay put.

At this point, I don't think the MW will be too excited to grab schools out of Texas just to expand. Going to 14 with schools like UNT and UTSA will diminish the per-school payout and increase travel expenses. No-go.

The American is next up. To me, two schools are locks: UAB (mentioned in every article in conjunction with the AAC) and Rice (the likely Navy choice for a second Texas school). That being said, the AAC will not want to over-expand by going to 14 or 16 which would significantly hurt the TV deal. However, UAB and Rice alone are not enough to move the football needle so I believe they add four in total to get to 12.

The other two adds are Marshall (good all around sports and some brand recognition) and Appalachian State (arguably the best football program outside the P5 east of the Mississippi and a proven winner at every level). I know some think the Sun Belt will be protected because it is an ESPN property but look at what just happened to the AAC.

West: Rice, Navy, SMU, Tulsa, Memphis, Tulane
East: Temple, UAB, ECU, USF, Marshall, App State

The MAC looks around and is content.

At this point, C-USA has 11 schools and the Sun Belt has 9 football schools and 11 Olympic sports schools. This is where things get interesting. A lot of people think the Sun Belt has the upper hand currently but if App State is plucked, the calculus changes. I believe at that moment, C-USA becomes the more desirable conference again.

C-USA will not make the mistake of going to 14 again. Their options include NMSU, Liberty, the 9 remaining Sun Belt schools, UMass, UConn (football-only), and James Madison.

To help exert their renewed strength against the Sun Belt, C-USA invites Coastal Carolina due to their all-around sports profile and location.

West: Southern Miss, LaTech, UTEP, UTSA, North Texas, MTSU
East: WKU, FIU, FAU, ODU, CCU, Charlotte

This leaves the Sun Belt. It is now down to 8 football schools. It could stay like that but I doubt it. Their options include the independents and FCS call-ups.

UConn and UMass decide to stay independent. So does Army. Liberty also declines. At this point, JMU gets snobby and realizes a lack of regional fit and declines as well.

At this point, NMSU applies and is accepted. Adding three FCS schools to get to 12 does not do the brand any good so they invite one FCS school: Sam Houston State, and they accept. With both schools being solid basketball schools, they help UT-Arlington and Little Rock find new conferences.

West: NMSU, SHSU, Texas State, Arkansas State, UL Monroe
East: Louisiana, GA State, GA Southern, Troy, South Alabama
 
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It will be interesting to see what Navy and Temple do. Temple cannot be excited about the changes to the conference. Navy can easily schedule Texas teams as an independent. If Navy in Temple leave I believe the AAC will be raided by the other conferences.
 

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