The next dominoes (October 18 edition) | The Boneyard

The next dominoes (October 18 edition)

shizzle787

King Shizzle DCCLXXXVII of the Cesspool
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Wow. So it looks like the AAC is going to add six schools. Also, it is being reported that the Mountain West will stay at 12 football schools. They will attempt to get both Wichita State and Gonzaga but get neither as WSU can't afford the AAC buy-out and Gonzaga is heading to....the Big East.

FOX will make the Big East/Gonzaga marriage work financially for all parties.

Next up is the Sun Belt. They have the option of adding two or four schools. They go with adding two: Southern Miss and Marshall. This gives them 12 schools in football and 14 in basketball.

West: Southern Miss, Louisiana, Texas State, South Alabama, UL Monroe,
Arkansas State

East: Marshall, Troy, Coastal Carolina, Appalachian State, Georgia State, Georgia Southern

The MAC looks around and sees an opportunity to slightly increase its geography and get better basketball and invites Old Dominion and Western Kentucky.

East: Old Dominion, Kent State, Miami (OH), Buffalo, Akron, Ohio, Bowling Green

West: Western Kentucky, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Ball State, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Toledo

This leaves C-USA with just four schools: FIU, LaTech, UTEP, and MTSU.

At this point, James Madison, UMass, and Liberty would not be interested with all-sports invites.

C-USA then invites NMSU for basketball but would not have the requisite number of schools for an FBS conference.

The basketball league would need to invite 4 schools to form a stable league.
They invite UT-Arlington, Little Rock, Grand Canyon, and Utah Valley to form a 9-team basketball league.
 
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The dream scenario for UCONN football will be Temple, Navy and Marshall going independent in football. It might be the start of a new northern football league. Hopefully we can somehow sell them on the idea.
 
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shizzle787

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The dream scenario for UCONN football will be Temple, Navy and Marshall all going independent in football. It might be the start of a new northern football league.
Navy, yes! Temple, sure. Marshall, meh.
 
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I don't see the MAC adding anything. But I'm curious what the heck C-USA is going to do, because I expect the Sun Belt to raid them.
 
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I don't see the MAC adding anything. But I'm curious what the heck C-USA is going to do, because I expect the Sun Belt to raid them.

Does the Sun Belt raid CUSA or vice versa? Not sure who the top dog is. Marshall and Temple will definitely be weighing all of their options.
 

shizzle787

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Does the Sun belt raid CUSA or vice versa? Not sure who the top dog is. Marshall and Temple will definitely be weighing all of their options.
At this point, the Sun Belt.
 
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Gonzaga to the BE is still a terrible move. If they were located 1,000 miles closer, maybe. And as soon as Few is gone, then what? It will take a few years to get that level of talent back to Spokane, if it ever happens at all. You saw that with Memphis between Coach Cal and Penny, and Memphis isn't located in the middle of nowhere.
 
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The dream scenario for UCONN football will be Temple, Navy and Marshall going independent in football. It might be the start of a new northern football league. Hopefully we can somehow sell them on the idea.

Navy was on the expansion committee.
 
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We'll see what happens with the TV dollars on the AAC deal and the MWC next deal. The MWC has to be exploring the value of their next contract with new markets in place (i.e. SMU). If they go down to somewhere beneath the MWC current deal (and I believe it will).. you'll start to see the rats flee the ship. Temple would have to explore independence.. if Navy can make more from licensing its home games (ala UConn/Army) they'd have to explore it as well.

Similarly dropping below the current MWC level would give a school like SMU a reason to open up the back-channels to see what the new MWC contract would look like with a member in Dallas.


With all that said... C-USA was the group proposing more regional conferences. They aren't going to go from Miami to the Southern Utah desert to stay alive.
 
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Navy was on the expansion committee.

I initially thought the AAC's per team payout from ESPN might get cut significantly which might prompt Navy to look at alternatives. It now appears the per team payout will not get cut so I agree Navy and Temple will likely stay where they are.
 
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I initially thought the AAC's per team payout from ESPN might get cut significantly which might prompt Navy to look at alternatives. It now appears the per team payout will not get cut so I agree Navy and Temple will likely stay where they are.

The leftovers get the same payout for now.

The newbies will not, but it’s more than what they get in the old conference.

Temple has more motivation to move because it’s awful for basketball. But I don’t think that Independence will be as kind to them since they won’t have an option as good as the Big East.

Our move didn’t come a moment too soon.
 
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I initially thought the AAC's per team payout from ESPN might get cut significantly which might prompt Navy to look at alternatives. It now appears the per team payout will not get cut so I agree Navy and Temple will likely stay where they are.
It's not going to get cut?
 
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Navy, yes! Temple, sure. Marshall, meh.

UMass
UConn
Army
Buffalo
Navy
Marshall
Old Dominion

I mean, that's not bad right? Local games, fairly large markets in the NE, schedule stability with plenty of room for OOC games.
 
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Not for the original 8.

That's a great way to breed future instability. Wait for the first time one of the new adds gets the tournament bid or has a season that eclipses the part of the old guard (say ECU remains at the bottom of the barrel)... I know you're contributing to the same overall product and furthering the league's value through your contributions, but here's 30% of what the rest of the membership is collecting.

If you use Thamel's article he's expecting the league to be given a $68M / yearly deal, with $7M per for the 8 existing schools and $2M per (allegedly escalating) for the new imports. If you do the math it becomes a Mountain West level $4.8-$5M per, which would be a huge rescue for them. (For context the current distribution would be about $84M)...
 

shizzle787

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That's a great way to breed future instability. Wait for the first time one of the new adds gets the tournament bid or has a season that eclipses the part of the old guard (say ECU remains at the bottom of the barrel)... I know you're contributing to the same overall product and furthering the league's value through your contributions, but here's 30% of what the rest of the membership is collecting.

If you use Thamel's article he's expecting the league to be given a $68M / yearly deal, with $7M per for the 8 existing schools and $2M per (allegedly escalating) for the new imports. If you do the math it becomes a Mountain West level $4.8-$5M per, which would be a huge rescue for them. (For context the current distribution would be about $84M)...
It can always be amended in the future when the contract comes up for an extension.
 

shizzle787

King Shizzle DCCLXXXVII of the Cesspool
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UMass
UConn
Army
Buffalo
Navy
Marshall
Old Dominion

I mean, that's not bad right? Local games, fairly large markets in the NE, schedule stability with plenty of room for OOC games.
Navy is not leaving the AAC and Buffalo is not leaving the MAC. Both are happy where they are (including yesterday's events).
 
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If CUSA does get raided by the Sun Belt, depending on who’s left, look for them to cut a deal with either the ASUN or WAC and give those current conferences looking to upgrade to FBS a whole hog invite.
 
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I totally forgot there were people here who actually think it's a positive to play (2) FCS teams and Liberty every year. Maybe even some great away games at Wyoming or NMSU thrown in since Connecticut athletics is know for it's large cross country traveling football fanbase... As opposed to getting in bowl position by having a consistent pool of 6 local and winnable FBS games guaranteed every year. Phew, this fanbase never ceases to amaze. Spoiler alert, our bottom six games are not going to be better than this proposed schedule any year and most years in the future will include multiple of these same proposed games anyway... It realistically won't ever happen, but this would not be a bad outcome for UConn football.
 
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UConn's future schedules at this point (albeit they're playing catch-up after converting from a conference-dominated schedule to an independent schedule):

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

 

shizzle787

King Shizzle DCCLXXXVII of the Cesspool
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UConn's future schedules at this point (albeit they're playing catch-up after converting from a conference-dominated schedule to an independent schedule):

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

That 2027 home slate is amazing.
 

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