The next dominoes (June 30 edition) | The Boneyard

The next dominoes (June 30 edition)

shizzle787

King Shizzle DCCLXXXVII of the Cesspool
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What a day! With the addition of USC and UCLA to the B1G, dominoes is back.

I will start off with a bold prediction: the SEC, B1G, ACC, and ND will not be shifting around any further.

The Pac-12 is where we will begin. I believe they have the upper hand over the Big 12 due to having better brands and more flagships.

I expect the Pac-12 to expand back to 12 by adding Kansas and Texas Tech. Kansas is a state flagship that brings its basketball brand, and Tech is the #3 team in Texas, and the #1 team in West Texas.

The Big 12 will respond by adding two more schools: Memphis and USF. Memphis and USF both represent an eastward and southern push for the league. SMU and Boise State are both candidates but politics (SMU) and location (Boise State) rule them out.

The AAC is up to bat. However, there isn't really any of value to add and the league will be at 12 members in both football and basketball and stand pat.

As a result, the MW, MAC, Sun Belt, and C-USA stand pat.
 
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The Big Ten isn't done and the Pac-10 will need more inbound schools.

Not sure politics holds SMU back-- it's more that four TX schools are already there and SMU still can't fill a 30K stadium. However, if Tech, TCU, and/or Baylor moved west, SMU would get a call. (Rice, not so much.)
 

shizzle787

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The Big Ten isn't done and the Pac-10 will need more inbound schools.

Not sure politics holds SMU back-- it's more that four TX schools are already there and SMU still can't fill a 30K stadium. However, if Tech, TCU, and/or Baylor moved west, SMU would get a call. (Rice, not so much.)
For now they are. It was just reported.
 

FfldCntyFan

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For now they are. It was just reported.
I believe the release said "for the time being".

It won't be immediately but I doubt that the plan is to have two west coast schools with Lincoln Nebraska as their closest conference neighbor. Also, Oregon and Washington do have value, I don't think the BIG will let them twist in the wind for too long.
 

nelsonmuntz

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I am not sure I would recommend this yet, but one way for the Big 12 and PAC 12 to flip the script is to merge the leagues together. Otherwise they risk the slow depreciation of their schools’ value as they are picked off 1 or 2 at a time over years until one or both have no more value than the MWC.

We are past the point of rivalries or any of that nostalgia. Conferences are only broadcast rights negotiating alliances, nothing more.
 

SubbaBub

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I am not sure I would recommend this yet, but one way for the Big 12 and PAC 12 to flip the script is to merge the leagues together. Otherwise they risk the slow depreciation of their schools’ value as they are picked off 1 or 2 at a time over years until one or both have no more value than the MWC.

We are past the point of rivalries or any of that nostalgia. Conferences are only broadcast rights negotiating alliances, nothing more.
Would havd been easier before they raided the AAC. Does Oregon really want to be in a confernce with UCF?

Seems like there are too many teams for a full merger. Ideally, they'd want a Texas centric division and a Mountain/Pacific time zone division pf 8-10 teams each.

Financially, the B12 has the FB upper hand, while the P12 has the Institutional prestige and geographic monopoly.

I think they add SDSU and either Bosie/Fresno or one or two of the western B12 schools. I don't see the B12 poaching any P12 schools.
 
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Washington and Oregon hold the cards here. If they stay in the Pac-12 (unlikely) they can keep the Pac together. If they bolt, then the Pac-12 is dead. The Big 12 will take Arizonas / colorado / Utah or some combination of four schools (Cal/Stanford?)
 
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I think the Big 12 has the advantage. Look at this map. I'd say the Arizonas would want to join the Big 12 rather than Big 12 members wanting to go out to the Pacific. Add New Mexico and SDSU and a few others. Without USC and UCLA, the Pac 12 is done.

1656681593752.png
 
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I think the Big 12 has the advantage. Look at this map. I'd say the Arizonas would want to join the Big 12 rather than Big 12 members wanting to go out to the Pacific. Add New Mexico and SDSU and a few others. Without USC and UCLA, the Pac 12 is done.

View attachment 77287
The problem both ASU & UofA have is that the majority of their student athletes come from California.

Moving from the PAC makes recruiting those California kids much tougher
 

nelsonmuntz

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Would havd been easier before they raided the AAC. Does Oregon really want to be in a confernce with UCF?

Seems like there are too many teams for a full merger. Ideally, they'd want a Texas centric division and a Mountain/Pacific time zone division pf 8-10 teams each.

Financially, the B12 has the FB upper hand, while the P12 has the Institutional prestige and geographic monopoly.

I think they add SDSU and either Bosie/Fresno or one or two of the western B12 schools. I don't see the B12 poaching any P12 schools.

Rutgers is in a conference with TWO Los Angeles schools. The leagues are making it up as they go along, and in that case, the Big 12 and Pac 12 should do something completely unexpected, or most of the schools in those two leagues will lose big.

I feel the same way about the Big East too. I just don't have an idea right this second about what the Big East should do.
 

CL82

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The AAC is up to bat. However, there isn't really any of value to add ...
Well that’s just hurtful…
 

shizzle787

King Shizzle DCCLXXXVII of the Cesspool
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Rutgers is in a conference with TWO Los Angeles schools. The leagues are making it up as they go along, and in that case, the Big 12 and Pac 12 should do something completely unexpected, or most of the schools in those two leagues will lose big.

I feel the same way about the Big East too. I just don't have an idea right this second about what the Big East should do.
Add Gonzaga and push for Kansas (that part being unlikely).
 
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The problem both ASU & UofA have is that the majority of their student athletes come from California.

Moving from the PAC makes recruiting those California kids much tougher
USC and UCLA are moving from the PAC to a mid-west/east coast conference so what's the difference. Arizona and ASU will still continue to get California kids regardless of conference, I would think. Big 12 is a lot closer.
 
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It’s a PAC 12/Big Tumbleweed deathmatch. And an ACC deathwatch with the B1G not done and I the SEC possibly wanting to move again in reaponse to the B1G.
 

nelsonmuntz

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The NFL and NBA tolerate college football and basketball, but they could turn those sports into college baseball simply by copying MLB’s draft eligibility rules.
 
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Once the 2 Conference breakaway, or whatever it will be, happens I think geography will be important for the leftover schools.

The available TV/streaming money will limited so the need for the remaining schools to organize geographically so they can limit travel expenses will be a necessity. Schools just won't have the money to fly teams all over the country.

Conferences will be created based on the ability to travel either by bus or regional air as the primary requirement.
 
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Until ND decides what to do I think expansion will be on hold. The reaming PAC and Big 12 teams are calling the SEC or Big 10 to try to get a seat at the big boys table.

It's no longer about academics or tradition, it's about money.

ND will be in a conference soon. That the Big 10 could peel away both USC and UCLA so quickly without anyone in the media catching wind of this tells you how strong their hand is.

An earthquake just shook the college football landscape and absolutely no one saw it coming

My guess is that the next shoe to drop will happen just as fast and ND will be in that move
 

shizzle787

King Shizzle DCCLXXXVII of the Cesspool
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Until ND decides what to do I think expansion will be on hold. The reaming PAC and Big 12 teams are calling the SEC or Big 10 to try to get a seat at the big boys table.

It's no longer about academics or tradition, it's about money.

ND will be in a conference soon. That the Big 10 could peel away both USC and UCLA so quickly without anyone in the media catching wind of this tells you how strong their hand is.

An earthquake just shook the college football landscape and absolutely no one saw it coming

My guess is that the next shoe to drop will happen just as fast and ND will be in that move
The next move is ND’s decision: stay put or join the B1G. If it is the latter, hold your britches.
 
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I believe B1G wants ND and Florida State. Florida would be very attractive. If ND and FSU won't move, they will pull the trigger on Oregon and Washington to go to 18, and maybe Stanford and Cal after that to go to 20.

Of course if they can get FSU, all bets are off since ACC will be bunch of rats on a sinking ship. SEC should be making moves to poach a bunch of ACC schools to go to 20.
 
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ESPN is actually hinting ND might make a move:

It makes no sense for ND to stay in the ACC if they don't want to miss the boat. They will finally join the B1G, and there isn't much other choice now.

ACC death watch should be next. It should be entertaining.
 
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ESPN is actually hinting ND might make a move:

It makes no sense for ND to stay in the ACC if they don't want to miss the boat. They will finally join the B1G, and there isn't much other choice now.

ACC death watch should be next. It should be entertaining.


I would love this. The jerks who started this die by this.
 
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I believe B1G wants ND and Florida State. Florida would be very attractive. If ND and FSU won't move, they will pull the trigger on Oregon and Washington to go to 18, and maybe Stanford and Cal after that to go to 20.

Of course if they can get FSU, all bets are off since ACC will be bunch of rats on a sinking ship. SEC should be making moves to poach a bunch of ACC schools to go to 20.

I think the B1G wants UNC in addition to others. They have a powerful draw.
 

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