The next dominoes (July 31 edition) | The Boneyard

The next dominoes (July 31 edition)

shizzle787

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It has been a month since the big move but no further moves have been made yet. Here is my theory for the next moves given the latest rumors and speculation:

The B1G is going to stay at 16. They will likely sign their new TV deal next month. This means that Notre Dame has decided not to come and likely have a huge raise in hand from NBC.

As a result of the B1G staying pat, the SEC and ACC do likewise.

The next battle royale will be between the Big 12 and Pac-12, but it will be a cold war: neither side will be able to poach from the other due to similar TV numbers.

The Big 12 stands pat.

The Pac-12, however, would like to expand if the numbers make sense. The numbers make sense if the two (or three) incoming schools combine to equal one share for the first TV contract (lasting six or so years). I think the TV contract will ultimately be will three companies: ESPN, NBC, and Apple+. The Pac-12 gets a contract of about 330 million per year (30 million per school). They expand by adding SDSU (half-share: 15 million), Hawaii football-only (third-share: 10 million) and Gonzaga (sixth-share: 5 million).

The Mountain West at this point is down to ten schools but decides to stand pat as no one (UTEP/NMSU/FCS schools) moves the needle, and they won't be able to raid any AAC schools.

Realignment at the FBS level is complete for the time being.

However, the WCC needs to respond to the loss of Gonzaga and BYU.
They respond by adding Seattle and Grand Canyon to get back to 10.

The WAC at this point is down to 9 schools (6 in football). They cannot find a suitable Division 1 addition and decide to stand pat.

Though unrelated to the previous moves, I believe there will be a few more in the Northeast. The MEAC will add New Haven (D2) to provide cover for Howard to move to the CAA.

The final move will be LeMoyne to the NEC to bring that league back to 10.
 

shizzle787

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I have to tweak this slightly. I'm putting SDSU and SMU in the Pac-12. MW adds UTEP. AAC adds Texas State. Sun Belt adds WKU. C-USA adds EKU. Big East adds Gonzaga as their Pac-12 option is gone.
 
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I have to tweak this slightly. I'm putting SDSU and SMU in the Pac-12. MW adds UTEP. AAC adds Texas State. Sun Belt adds WKU. C-USA adds EKU. Big East adds Gonzaga as their Pac-12 option is gone.
SDSU to the PAC 12 makes sense and SMU is a really interesting move. I think the Sun Belt should take both WKU and MTSU. Perfect fit geographically. Heck, Temple and UCONN could help round out the east coast, football only of course.

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"Other sources in the league said Louisiana Tech, Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee were among the expansion options a year ago. In some circles (but not all), the departures of WKU and MTSU from the Sun Belt to C-USA a decade ago left what are still some hard feelings. The same goes for former Louisiana Tech AD Tommy McClelland’s 2020 comment dismissing the idea of a Sun Belt-C-USA merger, adding that Louisiana (Lafayette) should try to “move up” to C-USA, extending a longtime beef with other Louisiana G5 schools."
 
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FOX has no choice but to swallow the remaining Pac-12 coastal schools (maybe they figure out a way to leave out WSU and OSU) since they already dipped their toes into L.A. and promised the Big Ten they're going all in with them. The prospect of leaving Washington, Oregon, Stanford and even Cal to a de facto P- or G+ status would be too much for certain power brokers in college sports, and especially the eggheads at Big Ten schools who see those programs as peers (maybe not Oregon but who knows...). Yes, money is important but if the B1G is going to be a P2, regardless, then that might actually up the pressure to take those 4 in even if they're not additive.

Remember, Warren has bosses that he has to please back in Chicagoland. If the Domers decide to stay out then that would be a huge pill to swallow for FOX.
 
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FOX has no choice but to swallow the remaining Pac-12 coastal schools (maybe they figure out a way to leave out WSU and OSU) since they already dipped their toes into L.A. and promised the Big Ten they're going all in with them. The prospect of leaving Washington, Oregon, Stanford and even Cal to a de facto P- or G+ status would be too much for certain power brokers in college sports, and especially the eggheads at Big Ten schools who see those programs as peers (maybe not Oregon but who knows...). Yes, money is important but if the B1G is going to be a P2, regardless, then that might actually up the pressure to take those 4 in even if they're not additive.

Remember, Warren has bosses that he has to please back in Chicagoland. If the Domers decide to stay out then that would be a huge pill to swallow for FOX.

I
Don't see ESPN giving up there west coast inventory to FOX. What late night games for football and basketball will they broadcast?
 
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I
Don't see ESPN giving up there west coast inventory to FOX. What late night games for football and basketball will they broadcast?
That's easily handled by moving the 4 corner schools to the Big 12. They already have BYU and adding those 4 to the Big 12 gives them 5 teams that can play late night football/hoops.
 
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I'm a Big 10 fan and follow their sports. I doubt if they hold back. They want to be one up on the SEC. And, I believe that they will follow with the AAU tradition. Nebraska, who knows why. It was a fit at the time. But, they should have grabbed Missouri.

Who's to say that if the money was there that they would not eat up the PAC 10. They already snatched UCLA and USC. It has been reported or hearsay is that California, Stanford, Oregon and Washington want to be included. I would say jump at it.

Then include a few other AAU schools such as Arizona, Colorado and Utah from the dying conference out west. It gives them three more media markets. Follow that up by swaying Kansas from the BIG 12. That gives them 24 schools unless I added wrong.

Things will change though but when. That is when the ACC media rights ends or enough schools want out. Then you will see North Carolina and Virginia added as well. Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh would be the only two remaining AAu schools that would have any influence.

Yes, just thinking out loud....
 
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I'm a Big 10 fan and follow their sports. I doubt if they hold back. They want to be one up on the SEC. And, I believe that they will follow with the AAU tradition. Nebraska, who knows why. It was a fit at the time. But, they should have grabbed Missouri.

Who's to say that if the money was there that they would not eat up the PAC 10. They already snatched UCLA and USC. It has been reported or hearsay is that California, Stanford, Oregon and Washington want to be included. I would say jump at it.

Then include a few other AAU schools such as Arizona, Colorado and Utah from the dying conference out west. It gives them three more media markets. Follow that up by swaying Kansas from the BIG 12. That gives them 24 schools unless I added wrong.

Things will change though but when. That is when the ACC media rights ends or enough schools want out. Then you will see North Carolina and Virginia added as well. Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh would be the only two remaining AAu schools that would have any influence.

Yes, just thinking out loud....

What does Mizzou add?

They have no brand. And even if they had a tv market then it wouldn’t matter because they have no brand.

Also, FWIW, Mizzou fans hate the SEC. The money is good but enthusiasm is way down.
 
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The hallucinogens must’ve kicked in when the lead poster settled in on Hawaii for P12.
 
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What does Mizzou add?

They have no brand. And even if they had a tv market then it wouldn’t matter because they have no brand.

Also, FWIW, Mizzou fans hate the SEC. The money is good but enthusiasm is way down.
Missouri basically begged the B1G for an invite before their move to the SEC and got no response
 
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What does Mizzou add?

They have no brand. And even if they had a tv market then it wouldn’t matter because they have no brand.

Also, FWIW, Mizzou fans hate the SEC. The money is good but enthusiasm is way down.
St Louis, has the 23rd largest media market. Just below Portland, Oregon. What else does Missouri bring is that it's an AAU school. If the BIG 10 decides to stay with that as a requirement.
 

dayooper

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St Louis, has the 23rd largest media market. Just below Portland, Oregon. What else does Missouri bring is that it's an AAU school. If the BIG 10 decides to stay with that as a requirement.

At the Big10 media days, conference commissioner Kevin Warren said that while they were proud that USC and UCLA were AAU schools, it’s not a requirement. Take that for what it’s worth.
 
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At the Big10 media days, conference commissioner Kevin Warren said that while they were proud that USC and UCLA were AAU schools, it’s not a requirement. Take that for what it’s worth.
He said that because he wants Notre Dame which is not an AAU school.
 
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St Louis, has the 23rd largest media market. Just below Portland, Oregon. What else does Missouri bring is that it's an AAU school. If the BIG 10 decides to stay with that as a requirement.

Yeah except markets don’t matter to the Big 2. Brands do. They don’t add anything.
 
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He said that because he wants Notre Dame which is not an AAU school.
Notre Dame has it made. They do not need a conference to play in for football. NBC; FOX; Amazon or whomever will pay them whatever they want to showcase their football games on their network.
 
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St Louis, has the 23rd largest media market. Just below Portland, Oregon. What else does Missouri bring is that it's an AAU school. If the BIG 10 decides to stay with that as a requirement.
It also brings Kansas City, which is the 34th largest media market. But more important is that they bring the entire state of Missouri, which is the 19th largest in population with 6.1 million people.
 
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It also brings Kansas City, which is the 34th largest media market. But more important is that they bring the entire state of Missouri, which is the 19th largest in population with 6.1 million people.

Again. Markets don’t matter. They don’t bring the entire state either. You find Iowa, Nebraska, KU, K State, Illinois etc here as well. Half of Kansas City even on the Missouri side is KU anyways.

Adding Mizzou anywhere isn’t going to increase the payout per school enough to make it worth the trouble. They got lucky or unlucky. They are the Rutgers of the SEC.

Since the move to the SEC there has been a precipitous drop in enthusiasm. The loss of traditional opponents really hurt.
 

LesMis89

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Missouri basically begged the B1G for an invite before their move to the SEC and got no response
This.

Follow B1G closely & the quoted post above is accurate. Missouri has nothing in which the B1G is interested.
 
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Again. Markets don’t matter. They don’t bring the entire state either. You find Iowa, Nebraska, KU, K State, Illinois etc here as well. Half of Kansas City even on the Missouri side is KU anyways.

Adding Mizzou anywhere isn’t going to increase the payout per school enough to make it worth the trouble. They got lucky or unlucky. They are the Rutgers of the SEC.

Since the move to the SEC there has been a precipitous drop in enthusiasm. The loss of traditional opponents really hurt.
Again. Markets don’t matter. They don’t bring the entire state either. You find Iowa, Nebraska, KU, K State, Illinois etc here as well. Half of Kansas City even on the Missouri side is KU anyways.

Adding Mizzou anywhere isn’t going to increase the payout per school enough to make it worth the trouble. They got lucky or unlucky. They are the Rutgers of the SEC.

Since the move to the SEC there has been a precipitous drop in enthusiasm. The loss of traditional opponents really hurt.
Markets do matter. That’s why the B1G went into NJ and MD/DC. It’s also why the B1G added UCLA to USC. UCLA is not a brand in football even if they once were, but adding them locked up the LA market. But I agree that brands matter more. Everything matters.

If markets don’t matter, why mention KU in relation to the KC market? Does anyone care about KU football on either side of the river? They’re certainly not a football brand.
 
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Markets do matter. That’s why the B1G went into NJ and MD/DC. It’s also why the B1G added UCLA to USC. UCLA is not a brand in football even if they once were, but adding them locked up the LA market. But I agree that brands matter more. Everything matters.

If markets don’t matter, why mention KU in relation to the KC market? Does anyone care about KU football on either side of the river? They’re certainly not a football brand.

NJ was a long time ago.

You are out of date. Brands matter.

You really think Oklahoma is a big market?

Out of date.

Out of date.
 
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NJ was a long time ago.

You are out of date. Brands matter.

You really think Oklahoma is a big market?

Out of date.

Out of date.
Please calm down. I said that brands matter and I never said that Oklahoma was a big market, so I don’t know what you’re arguing about.

Yes, NJ was a relatively long time ago but UCLA and the LA market was not, or are you contending that UCLA is a brand in football.

Anyway, this whole conversation about Missouri because ConnMotors said that the B1G should have grabbed Missouri. That’s his opinion. He’s entitled to it. Arguing about it is pointless.
 
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Missouri was forced to play in the eastern division. While the likes of Florida, Tennessee and Georgia are brands the geography is awkward. Missouri should be playing the likes of Oklahoma, Texas and Texas A&M more in the coming years, as those are familiar opponents from their Big 12 days. If the SEC takes in Kansas then that would reunite a long-time rival for them. Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas and Oklahoma would make for a nice quad out there.

Then Alabama and Auburn can reunite with Georgia and Tennessee.
 

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