SEC 40 Years of WCBB-Team Ranking

[DefenseBB]

I did an update on the stats for Top2% as I realized I doubled the opportunities for 1st and 2nd when it was just one or the other. As a result, Tennessee is far more dominant than I initially posted at 67%-My ERROR! They finished 1st or 2nd 51 times (35 1st, 16 2nd) in 76 opportunities (40 tournaments/36 Season standings).

As I did the update for statistical history of NCAA Tournament Final Four history from 1982 season to present day in September. That led to dialogue of fans comments on this forum about their team having a “good WCBB history”. What though, defines a “good basketball history”? I decided that success in their league was pre-eminent so I decided to look at 5 variables:

• How many Conference Tournament Finals did a team make (win or runner up)?
• How many Regular season titles did they win or come in 2nd?
• What is the Conf. Tourn winning percentage?
• What is the Conf. Regular season winning percentage?
• What is the combined Tournament and Regular season winning percentage?

These 5 variables are a good tool to assess relative strength to your direct peers, which leads to your satisfaction as a fan and a feeling your team has a good WCBB History.

It seems only fitting I start with the SEC given their illustrious history. The SEC has 40 years exactly of SEC Tournament Play and 37 years of listed Conference play. The dominant team is Tennessee who garnered 31.5% (51 total times) of all 162 Top 2 spots of Tournament and Regular Season standings. 18 Season Titles and 17 Tournament titles are unbelievable. They also have an 83% Reg season and 77% Tournament winning percentage. Dominant, unbelievably dominant. Kudos to UT , (see, I can be nice to LV fans!). We already knew all this but who was second? Technically, there’s a tie! With winning % as a tie breaker it’s Texas A&M and their brief history of 7 years in the league. They have 1 Tourn title nd 2 Regular season runner ups. That’s 3 for 14 or 21.4% and they have the second-best winning percentage of 68% (69% Reg/63% Tourn). Tied with them is South Carolina- Go Gamecocks! They too have 21.4% with 12 Top 2 places in 56 spots of 28 years of SEC play. They still have a sub .500 record however-some of those pre-Dawn teams must have been terrible. 4rd was Georgia then 5th LSU.

Of truly abysmal performance by programs are, to no one’s surprise Florida, Alabama and Arkansas. Bama is dead last in Conference win percentage at 35.5% (34.7/41.2). Arkansas is a close 2nd at 35.7% (35.7/35.7). Arkansas has never finished 1st or 2nd in either in 28 years in the SEC and Florida has 3 second place finishes in 40 years for pathetic 1.9% in Top2 finishes. At least Bama has 6 Top 2 finishes (2 Season and 4 T runner-up) in 87 years of combined play for a still paltry 3.7%. The hope for Arkansas is a near term positive outlook, ‘Bama and Florida, not so much.

Here’s the data, sorted by Overall Win%. Have at it and let me know your thoughts.

 

[stwainfan]

That's some good work. One question I have. Auburn has been to Final Four, and played for the Championship. When the lost to Tennessee So can you rank Missouri ahead of them? Even though they have had just a few years in the SEC.

 

[DefenseBB]

That's some good work. One question I have. Auburn has been to Final Four, and played for the Championship. When the lost to Tennessee So can you rank Missouri ahead of them? Even though they have had just a few years in the SEC.

Sort was by winning percentage. Auburn was VERY good in the 80's ok in the 90's had a nice run in 2009 but since and in between-brutal. They are a .500 club now.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

I think the stats are interesting and thanks for providing them.

That said, my thing is always the "smell test". Auburn has a good WCBB history. It is, arguably, "history" and not the more recent editions, but unlike today's generation, I can recognize good history when I see it. They can thank Joe Ciampi. Missouri, as an example, does not have a good WCBB history unless there is something to their pre-SEC history that I don't know about. And the current product, while good, hasn't been around long enough to qualify for a "good history".

Part of what I think is that stats over a 40 year or so history doesn't capture the variations. Very few teams have 40 years of above average performance, and I'm not completely certain that a period where the heights were extremely high (USC under Coach Sharp for example) and the "history" undeniable, but the program has never returned to those heights. I don't think your stat system would think much of USC, even with the NCs, but to deny they have a good history strikes me as silly.

 

[SECbbfan24]

Wish I could relive the 04-08 run

 

[DefenseBB]

Wish I could relive the 04-08 run

I sort of Blame you directly for my spending hours on this assessment of the programs as I wanted to prove a “good WCBB history” for you! LSU was good but has slipped under Caldwell quite badly actually. @KnightBridgeAZ brought up a few points to ponder- to me, trends and consistency make for historical programs (note NOT history). I mean Old Dominion had history but they are not historically good. Same with USC, they had a run in the 80s but nothing sustainable since-is that historically good? I think not. Auburn was awesome then bad and except for 2009 has been bad. If you have not been relevant for 20 years, can you have a historically good program? No program can sustain excellence over 40 years but downward trends need to be reversed and upward success sustained for a few years to combat those slumps. I don’t see that with Auburn based on the data. To me, the SEC has 3 historically good programs- Tenn, Georgia,LSU. Vandy wants to think that but the data says no. Texas A&M, SC, MSU are building great programs that have shown sustainability.

I do agree with my Rutgers colleague that Missouri has NOT be a good program until Pidgeon got there. The sort I did was on conference win percentage and I did not state they had a History of good basketball. Their trend is flat but more promising then the has beens of Auburn and Vandy.

Can the SEC reverse the conference slide and stop relying on history for glory but get back to the top ahead of PAC-12 and ACC? Not in the near term. Hopefully my daughters analysis in 15 years will tell this forum the answer!

 

[SECbbfan24]

I remember vandy having some very strong teams under Melanie balcomb.

Btw good job on the post

Enjoyed the good read

 

[biobioprof]

The problem for me with this analysis is that conference realignment messes it up. Nobody would argue that UConn's historical success is limited to what they've done in the AAC.

 

[MSSportsGuy]

Interesting stats overall. What's most shocking to me is that MSU is now ahead of Ole Miss, which reminds me how long it's been since they were relevant.

Brief history: Mississippi State was abysmal in women's basketball. The conference was highly competitive yet the school didn't place any emphasis on the sport. When Sharon Fanning arrived things improved, just not every year. I was out of college by then but she managed to keep in state talent Latoya Thomas and Tan White home, both of whom had multiple offers elsewhere. They couldn't get over the hump though and while they made one S16 in 2010, that was it for Fanning's career and she retired a few years later. Enter Schafer who scored a huge win when he convinced Vivians, a player with even more national press than the previous ones, to stay in state and she teamed with William, McCowan and others to make the greatest multiple year run MSU has seen in any sport.

Contrast this with Ole Miss. One reason why MSU was so bad is Ole Miss got the best recruits in the state and surrounding area under Chancellor. They made 3 or 4 elite 8s during his time there, never a FF. His 1992 team was ranked as high a #2 and it was probably the best team Ole Miss ever had but they lost in the E8 again. They were still pretty good (not as good) until he left for the WNBA in 1997. The program tumbled to the bottom of the SEC most years until former player and FL coach Carol Ross arrived. She had a hidden gem in Armentie Price who grew up less than an hour from campus. She had some solid players in that class and their senior year they had a good regular season but stunned defending champ Maryland in the 2007 tournament second round, then I watched on TV as Price and company ran the you know what out of Courtney Paris and Oklahoma in the S16 to win another shocker. Parker and TN dismantled them in the E8 and back to the bottom they went.

It also proves that while Ole Miss won a lot of games in the 80s and early 90s, there are many more games played now so the wins and losses count up quickly.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

Like most other sports, South Carolina was unprepared for the SEC in WBB and had a lot of trouble getting up to speed after having been a decent to good mid-major program in the Metro.

Carolina isn't too bad on the overall ranks giving tough starts and 12 fewer years.

My recollection of USC's entry into the league was that WBB was pretty stacked with good teams top to bottom with Tennessee being 1A or 1B nationally.

Neither Miss State or South Carolina has been Tennessee or even close to that obviously. I'm not sure about the league depth. To me, it's been a two or three team league for awhile with a middle that wasn't really all that frisky.

 

[bballnut90]

I did statistical history of NCAA Tournament Final Four history from 1982 season to present day in September. That led to dialogue of fans comments on this forum about their team having a “good WCBB history”. What though, defines a “good basketball history”? I decided that success in their league was pre-eminent so I decided to look at 5 variables:

• How many Conference Tournament Finals did a team make (win or runner up)?
• How many Regular season titles did they win or come in 2nd?
• What is the Conf. Tourn winning percentage?
• What is the Conf. Regular season winning percentage?
• What is the combined Tournament and Regular season winning percentage?

These 5 variables are a good tool to assess relative strength to your direct peers, which leads to your satisfaction as a fan and a feeling your team has a good WCBB History.

It seems only fitting I start with the SEC given their illustrious history. The SEC has 40 years exactly of SEC Tournament Play and 37 years of listed Conference play. The dominant team is Tennessee who garnered 31.5% (51 total times) of all 162 Top 2 spots of Tournament and Regular Season standings. 18 Season Titles and 17 Tournament titles are unbelievable. They also have an 83% Reg season and 77% Tournament winning percentage. Dominant, unbelievably dominant. Kudos to UT , (see, I can be nice to LV fans!). We already knew all this but who was second? Technically, there’s a tie! With winning % as a tie breaker it’s Texas A&M and their brief history of 7 years in the league. They have 1 Tourn title nd 2 Regular season runner ups. That’s 3 for 14 or 21.4% and they have the second-best winning percentage of 68% (69% Reg/63% Tourn). Tied with them is South Carolina- Go Gamecocks! They too have 21.4% with 12 Top 2 places in 56 spots of 28 years of SEC play. They still have a sub .500 record however-some of those pre-Dawn teams must have been terrible. 4rd was Georgia then 5th LSU.

Of truly abysmal performance by programs are, to no one’s surprise Florida, Alabama and Arkansas. Bama is dead last in Conference win percentage at 35.5% (34.7/41.2). Arkansas is a close 2nd at 35.7% (35.7/35.7). Arkansas has never finished 1st or 2nd in either in 28 years in the SEC and Florida has 3 second place finishes in 40 years for pathetic 1.9% in Top2 finishes. At least Bama has 6 Top 2 finishes (2 Season and 4 T runner-up) in 87 years of combined play for a still paltry 3.7%. The hope for Arkansas is a near term positive outlook, ‘Bama and Florida, not so much.

Here’s the data, sorted by Overall Win%. Have at it and let me know your thoughts.
View attachment 46846

Good work putting this together. What's interesting is how aside from Tennessee (and Georgia for most of Landers' career), every other long time member had had their moment in the spotlight of either making a Final Four, or having several years of being steadily a very good team:


-LSU made 5 straight Final Fours
-Vandy made the 1993 F4 and was a steady F4 threat for the next decade
-Auburn had Final Four teams in the 80s and won the SEC 10 years ago
-SC has won a title and played in another Final Four
-Kentucky has steadily been very good the past 10 or so years
-Florida almost made the Final Four in 97 and had some strong teams in the late 90s/early 2000s
-Mississippi State made back to back title games recently
-Ole Miss was excellent in the 80s, making 4 Elite 8s and 7 Sweet 16s in eight seasons with Van Chancellor
-Arkansas made a Final Four in 98
-Alabama made the Final Four in 94 and was very good in the 90s.


Only Kentucky, Florida and Ole Miss have failed to make the Final Four, but all three have come close and have had extended periods of success. Not sure any other conference boasts as much spread out success or if this is just a faction of 40 years of WCBB.

 

[biobioprof]

Interesting stats overall. What's most shocking to me is that MSU is now ahead of Ole Miss, which reminds me how long it's been since they were relevant.

Brief history: Mississippi State was abysmal in women's basketball. The conference was highly competitive yet the school didn't place any emphasis on the sport. When Sharon Fanning arrived things improved, just not every year. I was out of college by then but she managed to keep in state talent Latoya Thomas and Tan White home, both of whom had multiple offers elsewhere. They couldn't get over the hump though and while they made one S16 in 2010, that was it for Fanning's career and she retired a few years later. Enter Schafer who scored a huge win when he convinced Vivians, a player with even more national press than the previous ones, to stay in state and she teamed with William, McCowan and others to make the greatest multiple year run MSU has seen in any sport.

Contrast this with Ole Miss. One reason why MSU was so bad is Ole Miss got the best recruits in the state and surrounding area under Chancellor. They made 3 or 4 elite 8s during his time there, never a FF. His 1992 team was ranked as high a #2 and it was probably the best team Ole Miss ever had but they lost in the E8 again. They were still pretty good (not as good) until he left for the WNBA in 1997. The program tumbled to the bottom of the SEC most years until former player and FL coach Carol Ross arrived. She had a hidden gem in Armentie Price who grew up less than an hour from campus. She had some solid players in that class and their senior year they had a good regular season but stunned defending champ Maryland in the 2007 tournament second round, then I watched on TV as Price and company ran the you know what out of Courtney Paris and Oklahoma in the S16 to win another shocker. Parker and TN dismantled them in the E8 and back to the bottom they went.

It also proves that while Ole Miss won a lot of games in the 80s and early 90s, there are many more games played now so the wins and losses count up quickly.

Don't forget that lack of recent success at Ole Miss in WBB, like the case with LSU, involved coaching scandals. Very different kind but I'd argue that they were both damaging in terms of rebuilding programs with prior success. Adrian Wiggins getting canned in 2012 for recruiting violations before coaching a single game also led some Ole Miss fans to blame WBB for bringing unwanted NCAA attention to the shenanigans with the football team.

That's the same year Vic arrived at State. I think Vic was a great hire for Miss State, but it probably didn't hurt in landing in state players like Victoria Vivians that Ole Miss had imploded (don't know if Vivians had an affinity for Ole Miss or Miss State coming out of HS, though).

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

South Carolina was very good in the late 70's and early 80's, including an AIAW Final Four in 1980, I think. We were pretty good for the rest of the 80's and arguably the best program in the Metro during the 10-ish years we were in that conference. When we joined the SEC, the difference from the Metro was stark and it took about 10 years before we were competitive in the early 2000's before Susan Walvius' weak final few teams. I expect Dawn to stay in Columbia for the rest of her career as she is so totally ingrained and popular in our city.

 

[JDuro]

South Carolina was very good in the late 70's and early 80's, including an AIAW Final Four in 1980, I think. We were pretty good for the rest of the 80's and arguably the best program in the Metro during the 10-ish years we were in that conference. When we joined the SEC, the difference from the Metro was stark and it took about 10 years before we were competitive in the early 2000's before Susan Walvius' weak final few teams. I expect Dawn to stay in Columbia for the rest of her career as she is so totally ingrained and popular in our city.

Dawn volunteered yesterday to Carey Rich on his podcast her intention to retire in Columbia about as emphatically as one can. So yeah, she isn’t going anywhere.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

Dawn volunteered yesterday to Carey Rich on his podcast her intention to retire in Columbia about as emphatically as one can. So yeah, she isn’t going anywhere.

I missed that, but it's readily apparent to me. Dawn is 49 and we will be relevant as long as she's in Columbia. Maybe someday her cousin Duce will be our football coach. I think Duce's son is playing football for us now, isn't he?

 

[DefenseBB]

As this was about the SEC specifically (and the other P5 conference teams), prior affiliations of conferences was not looked at, though for those who migrated from the Big8/Big12 I may take a look. So while my South Carolina brethren might say the team was good in the Metro, they do have 27/28 years in the SEC and were not relevant until Dawn. They did not finish in the top 2 in any year prior and their SEC W/L record was not good. Dawn has more then made them relevant but has them in virtually any discussion of the top teams now (and for the foreseeable future).
Missouri was brutal in the Big8/Big12 but like her or not and her style so far, Robin P has made Missouri much better. I don’t view them as relevant yet, but have better prospects near term than Auburn, LSU and Florida who were good at various points in time, but none lately.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

As this was about the SEC specifically (and the other P5 conference teams), prior affiliations of conferences was not looked at, though for those who migrated from the Big8/Big12 I may take a look. So while my South Carolina brethren might say the team was good in the Metro, they do have 27/28 years in the SEC and were not relevant until Dawn. They did not finish in the top 2 in any year prior and their SEC W/L record was not good. Dawn has more then made them relevant but has them in virtually any discussion of the top teams now (and for the foreseeable future).
Missouri was brutal in the Big8/Big12 but like her or not and her style so far, Robin P has made Missouri much better. I don’t view them as relevant yet, but have better prospects near term than Auburn, LSU and Florida who were good at various points in time, but none lately.

I mentioned it for the reason that being good in the Metro did not equate to being competitive in the SEC.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

As this was about the SEC specifically (and the other P5 conference teams), prior affiliations of conferences was not looked at, though for those who migrated from the Big8/Big12 I may take a look. So while my South Carolina brethren might say the team was good in the Metro, they do have 27/28 years in the SEC and were not relevant until Dawn. They did not finish in the top 2 in any year prior and their SEC W/L record was not good. Dawn has more then made them relevant but has them in virtually any discussion of the top teams now (and for the foreseeable future).
Missouri was brutal in the Big8/Big12 but like her or not and her style so far, Robin P has made Missouri much better. I don’t view them as relevant yet, but have better prospects near term than Auburn, LSU and Florida who were good at various points in time, but none lately.

Susan Walvius had a team that finished tied for second in the SEC en route to an Elite 8 appearance, but I think you got the substance right.