Pac 12 Conference Outlook | The Boneyard

Pac 12 Conference Outlook

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With the completion of the OOC season and the beginning of conference season starting early, it seemed a good time to open discussion about the prospects for the teams in the Pac-12. I have divided my expectations (guesses ?) into tiers as follows:

Tier 1:
Stanford (NET #3, Massey #2)

Tier 2:
Utah (NET #6, Massey #7)
Oregon (NET #10,Massey #13)
UCLA (NET #25, Massey #14)
Arizona (NET #29, Massey #18)

Tier 3:
Colorado (NET #35, Massey #34)
Southern Cal (NET #44, Massey #47)
Washington State (NET #50, Massey #41)
Oregon State (NET #62, Massey #54)

Tier 4:
California (NET #80, Massey #77)
Washington (NET #114, Massey #79)
Arizona State (NET #120, Massey #81)

So Tier 1 is a team shooting for a Final 4. Tier 2 are teams hoping to play well enough to host the Tournament first round. Tier 3 are teams that hope to make the Tournament. Tier 4 likely brings up the rear.
 
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Tier one: Stanford. Probable Final Fouf

Tier Two: possible Elite Eight. Probable Sweet Sixteen.

Tier Three: probable tournament qualifier. Possible NIT.

PAC will get at least 7 maybe 8 teams in the tournament based on the top non-conference winning percentage despite very low non-conference SOS. (Like SEC last year). Thus, the five tier 1&2 teams plus two or three tier 3 teams will be selected while one or two will have to settle for NIT
 
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Getting into the schedule weeds a bit adds a deeper dimension. Teams play an 18 game league schedule. Road games in the Pac12 can be problematic. Tier 2 teams should expect to win all (except Stanford) at home. So how does the schedule stack up for Tier 2:

Arizona: play Stanford twice, Utah twice, Oregon twice, @UCLA, @USC, home only UW and WSU

UCLA: play Stanford twice, Oregon twice, @Utah, @ Colorado, home only AZ and ASU

Utah: play Stanford twice, Arizona twice, @Oregon, @ORST, home only UCLA and USC

Oregon: play UCLA twice, AZ twice, @Stanford, @ Cal, home only Utah and Colorado

Schedule advantage: Oregon
Schedule disadvantage: Arizona
 
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I like the look of Arizona and think they may edge to the top of Tier 2. I know, the stats seem to say otherwise, but they have a veteran core with Reese Martinez Loville and Pellington, and a promising young big in Maya Nnaji. And Pellington seems to be doing her best to channel Aari MacDonald. If she can just keep her temper under control, she can be a game changer.

They looked really good torching Baylor.
 

bballnut90

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Tier one: Stanford. Probable Final Fouf

Tier Two: possible Elite Eight. Probable Sweet Sixteen.

Tier Three: probable tournament qualifier. Possible NIT.

PAC will get at least 7 maybe 8 teams in the tournament based on the top non-conference winning percentage despite very low non-conference SOS. (Like SEC last year). Thus, the five tier 1&2 teams plus two or three tier 3 teams will be selected while one or two will have to settle for NIT

To be honest I'll be surprised if anyone but Stanford and maybe UCLA reach the Elite 8. I'd add in another tier between 2 and 3 and put squads like Utah, Oregon and Arizona there, of likely 2nd round, possible Sweet 16. Utah has been great early but we'll see how they hold up in the night in night out grind of the PAC. Oregon is talented but young. I think they're a 4-6 seed in the tournament and could make the Sweet 16 but I wouldn't bet on them. Arizona has some talent, I think they'll be in the 4-6 seed range too.

Right now I'd bet on Big Ten/ACC schools making strong runs. Both have 4-5 teams that are Sweet 16 caliber IMO. I also think programs like Texas, Tennessee and Louisville will make their way back into the top 20 and likely make a Sweet 16 run despite rough starts to the season.
 
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I like the look of Arizona and think they may edge to the top of Tier 2. I know, the stats seem to say otherwise, but they have a veteran core with Reese Martinez Loville and Pellington, and a promising young big in Maya Nnaji. And Pellington seems to be doing her best to channel Aari MacDonald. If she can just keep her temper under control, she can be a game changer.

They looked really good torching Baylor.
The Wildcats looked disjointed on offense and unable to defend the paint in a 27 point beat down by Kansas at home in front of 7,300 fans. They have the roster to contend for the top of tier 2 but have work to do.

I think Utah demonstrated most consistent play in the non-conference portion of the schedule. I’d put them at the top of tier 2 at this point followed by UCLA and Arizona in some order. Oregon has a strong starting core but lacks bench depth. I would put them behind the other three teams.
 
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The Wildcats looked disjointed on offense and unable to defend the paint in a 27 point beat down by Kansas at home in front of 7,300 fans. They have the roster to contend for the top of tier 2 but have work to do.

I think Utah demonstrated most consistent play in the non-conference portion of the schedule. I’d put them at the top of tier 2 at this point followed by UCLA and Arizona in some order. Oregon has a strong starting core but lacks bench depth. I would put them behind the other three teams.

Utah (2-0) and Arizona (1-1) have only faced two Quad One challenges each. Okay LSU has faced a weaker schedule, but neither of them has earned much respect so far. They may be really good but - I’ll mention LSU again.
 
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The Wildcats looked disjointed on offense and unable to defend the paint in a 27 point beat down by Kansas at home in front of 7,300 fans. They have the roster to contend for the top of tier 2 but have work to do.

I think Utah demonstrated most consistent play in the non-conference portion of the schedule. I’d put them at the top of tier 2 at this point followed by UCLA and Arizona in some order. Oregon has a strong starting core but lacks bench depth. I would put them behind the other three teams.
I think you're right about the Kansas beat down. Arizona looked ragged. But I'm less convinced by Utah. Pili Vieira and Kneepkens have been playing really well, but I don't think they'll match up well against the teams with great guards, like UCLA and Arizona, and I don't think Pili will be able to sustain what she's been doing against Stanford or Oregon, maybe not even Ore St. One thing they have going for them is that they've been able to play a deep rotation, often 9 or more players in double figures for minutes.
 
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I like the tier breakdowns. Stanford is a FF contender & clear favorite in the Pac 12 and agree that they are top tier. After that, the tiers look good.
 

jonson

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To be honest I'll be surprised if anyone but Stanford and maybe UCLA reach the Elite 8. I'd add in another tier between 2 and 3 and put squads like Utah, Oregon and Arizona there, of likely 2nd round, possible Sweet 16. Utah has been great early but we'll see how they hold up in the night in night out grind of the PAC. Oregon is talented but young. I think they're a 4-6 seed in the tournament and could make the Sweet 16 but I wouldn't bet on them. Arizona has some talent, I think they'll be in the 4-6 seed range too.

Right now I'd bet on Big Ten/ACC schools making strong runs. Both have 4-5 teams that are Sweet 16 caliber IMO. I also think programs like Texas, Tennessee and Louisville will make their way back into the top 20 and likely make a Sweet 16 run despite rough starts to the season.
Not sure how this works out tier-wise, but I'm a bit more optimistic (maybe hopeful is a better word) about Oregon, assuming they stay healthy. If they are a 4 seed, then I think they will make the Sweet 16 (probably their ceiling unless the bracket is favorable); maybe even a 5, depending on the bracket On the other hand, I'm not convinced that UCLA is as good as their current ranking. The game Friday should help measure both.

Arizona looked terrible (at home) against Kansas, but much better at Baylor (with a lot of help from Baylor; I think familiarity will make their task tougher in the Pac12). However, they do start 5 seniors (with several in their 5th year) and have a fairly deep bench, so there's a lot of potential. I can't make my mind about how Utah will fare in conference, but am rooting for them (except against Oregon).
 

KnightBridgeAZ

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I don't think every coach does it, but Adia is pretty darn open about things. She was clearly dissatisfied with the state of the team coming into the Kansas game and to the extent she detailed her concerns - ragged discordant offense and non-communicative defense - she was pretty spot on. Supposedly, she had raised these issues in practice unsuccessfully because the players were having success against lower-quality competition. And, also supposedly, the loss got their attention.

I have Arizona squarely in the 2nd tier, with hopes to make it at least to the Sweet 16. Stanford is the clear leader, I think the other tiers are probably accurate in the OP.
 
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With the completion of the OOC season and the beginning of conference season starting early, it seemed a good time to open discussion about the prospects for the teams in the Pac-12. I have divided my expectations (guesses ?) into tiers as follows:

Tier 1:
Stanford (NET #3, Massey #2)

Tier 2:
Utah (NET #6, Massey #7)
Oregon (NET #10,Massey #13)
UCLA (NET #25, Massey #14)
Arizona (NET #29, Massey #18)

Tier 3:
Colorado (NET #35, Massey #34)
Southern Cal (NET #44, Massey #47)
Washington State (NET #50, Massey #41)
Oregon State (NET #62, Massey #54)

Tier 4:
California (NET #80, Massey #77)
Washington (NET #114, Massey #79)
Arizona State (NET #120, Massey #81)

So Tier 1 is a team shooting for a Final 4. Tier 2 are teams hoping to play well enough to host the Tournament first round. Tier 3 are teams that hope to make the Tournament. Tier 4 likely brings up the rear.


I would but Oregon at tier 2 like above and I would put Oregon State in a very high tier 4 based on your critera. I would be thrilled if Oregon made the sweet sixteen with a young team and see that as a worthy goal. OSU's Rueck is in a mission critical scenario this season and MUST make it to the big dance this year. Miss out another year and it just get that much harder to recruit to Corvallis
 
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I would but Oregon at tier 2 like above and I would put Oregon State in a very high tier 4 based on your critera. I would be thrilled if Oregon made the sweet sixteen with a young team and see that as a worthy goal. OSU's Rueck is in a mission critical scenario this season and MUST make it to the big dance this year. Miss out another year and it just get that much harder to recruit to Corvalli
Oregon State's mission this season should be to develop their 5 freshmen. OSU has an excellent freshmen class and two solid incoming PGs next season. I don't believe the transfers (Bendu Yeaney & Shallexus Aaron) will somehow vault OSU to great heights this season from what I have seen thus far. Not that this season is lost (as measured by making the NCAA Tournament) but it will take the coaching staff making some tough decisions about playing time between transfers & freshmen as PAC-12 play begins this weekend.
 
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Oregon State's mission this season should be to develop their 5 freshmen. OSU has an excellent freshmen class and two solid incoming PGs next season. I don't believe the transfers (Bendu Yeaney & Shallexus Aaron) will somehow vault OSU to great heights this season from what I have seen thus far. Not that this season is lost (as measured by making the NCAA Tournament) but it will take the coaching staff making some tough decisions about playing time between transfers & freshmen as PAC-12 play begins this weekend.
You mean like the way Oregon is developing their freshmen this year have 3 on the floor at one time for long stretches. Yeah I can see that at OSU too and agree with you but Rueck is apparently thinking something different.
 

DefenseBB

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@Figurehead and @LoTrader should both Kelly and Scott be solely focused on retaining their players after the year ends? I mean the shear number of transfers that both programs have had over the past 2 years is astounding and frankly worrisome…
 
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One of my criteria for tier 2 is you don’t lose at home except maybe to tier 1. This loss drops Oregon down to Tier 3 IMO. They did not look good and the short roster will work against them as the punishing league schedule takes its toll.
 

TheFarmFan

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One of my criteria for tier 2 is you don’t lose at home except maybe to tier 1. This loss drops Oregon down to Tier 3 IMO. They did not look good and the short roster will work against them as the punishing league schedule takes its toll.
Unless, of course, UCLA is a tier 1 team. (They don't look far off.) I don't think there's a ton of shame in losing at home by 7 to the No. 10 team in the country. And if memory serves, the year Oregon reached the final four they had a shock loss at home to an unranked UCLA team. So maybe it's a good omen. =)
 
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Arizona escapes at Cal 69-60. I switched back and forth with the football game but had no dog in that hunt so didn’t really care On the FB side. Cal made a nice come back in the 4th to tie the game with a couple minutes to go. More experienced team closed it out for the win though.
 
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Utah wins against Washington, but Washington kept it close until the last minute.
 

nwhoopfan

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Didn't watch the game. Weird that Utah attempted more 3's (22-15) but had a HUGE advantage in FT attempts (20-4). Dawgs certainly did not get any home cooking in this one it would appear. But home court advantage has been non existent for them ever since Plum graduated.
 

nwhoopfan

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Not sure where to look it up, but Dawgs have to be among the worst 3 point shooting teams in D1. They were at .235 entering today and 2-15 this game will drop it even lower. You could almost shoot that well blindfolded I think. They were always a poor shooting team during Wynn's tenure, but never this bad.
 
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@LoTrader
 
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Charisma Osborne doesn’t play against Oregon State after hurting shoulder in 4th quarter against Oregon. Kiki Rice fouls out with 59 seconds left and UCLA down 64 67. UCLA loses 72 77. Hopefully Charisma is able to play soon.

Little margin for error on the road in PAC 12.
 
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Not sure where to look it up, but Dawgs have to be among the worst 3 point shooting teams in D1. They were at .235 entering today and 2-15 this game will drop it even lower. You could almost shoot that well blindfolded I think. They were always a poor shooting team during Wynn's tenure, but never this bad.
#336 out of 350, lowest of all Power 5 teams.
 
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Charisma Osborne doesn’t play against Oregon State after hurting shoulder in 4th quarter against Oregon. Kiki Rice fouls out with 59 seconds left and UCLA down 64 67. UCLA loses 72 77. Hopefully Charisma is able to play soon.

Little margin for error on the road in PAC 12.
Yeah her arm was in a sling so didn't look great. Hope for the best though.
Regina beers was great, really on both ends.
 

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