New reality for Florida State, Miami, and others

[WestCoastHusky]

With realignment, Florida State and Miami are about to be irrelevant in college football | Opinion

A glimpse into the future of college football features the SEC and Big Ten ... and not much else for schools in other conferences.

www.theledger.com

 

[Billy Jack]

I agree with the overall conclusion of this article that everyone outside the B1G and SEC will become irrelevant. But I disagree that B1G expansion is finished.

Notre Dame will finally move to the B1G. They have no choice. The difference in $$$ is too great and failing to join will essentially shut them out of a chance to compete for a national championship. They will drag their feet, but in the end they will acquiesce.

The addition of ND will bring the B1G to 17, forcing them to add. I think that the addition of 3 is more likely than 1. A number divisible by 4 creates more flexibility than on only divisible by 2. That means at least 3 more. Adding Stanford, Washington, and Oregon will bring the additional benefit of solving the isolation of USC and UCLA on the West Coast.

I would also suggest that Miami will not. suddenly become irrelevant. They became irrelevant a long time ago. Their attendance has been dropping for at least a decade, their last national championship was more than 2 decades ago, and they’ve lost 10 of their last 11 bowl games. Remember that last bowl win? Drum roll, please. The esteemed Russell Athletic Bowl. Huh?

 

[metsfan2323]

I agree with the overall conclusion of this article that everyone outside the B1G and SEC will become irrelevant. But I disagree that B1G expansion is finished.

Notre Dame will finally move to the B1G. They have no choice. The difference in $$$ is too great and failing to join will essentially shut them out of a chance to compete for a national championship. They will drag their feet, but in the end they will acquiesce.

The addition of ND will bring the B1G to 17, forcing them to add. I think that the addition of 3 is more likely than 1. A number divisible by 4 creates more flexibility than on only divisible by 2. That means at least 3 more. Adding Stanford, Washington, and Oregon will bring the additional benefit of solving the isolation of USC and UCLA on the West Coast.

I would also suggest that Miami will not. suddenly become irrelevant. They became irrelevant a long time ago. Their attendance has been dropping for at least a decade, their last national championship was more than 2 decades ago, and they’ve lost 10 of their last 11 bowl games. Remember that last bowl win? Drum roll, please. The esteemed Russell Athletic Bowl. Huh?

You are right that Miami has been on a downward trend however Cristobol seems like he may be about to turn them around.

 

[B1GEast]

Hard ti feel sorry for any of them. We wanted si badly to join the ACC. Now they know how we felt.

Both are great programs and might get into one of the two power conferences, but I'll enjoy watching all of the many teams sweat it out.

Uconn might be a part of whatever is left in the college football landscape and those with us will be our equals.

The worm has turned

 

[WestCoastHusky]

Not gonna lie. I hope FSU and Miami rot in the ACC the way they have screwed UConn in the past.

College football: FSU's future is clouded by bad moves in the past | David Whitley

FSU declined an invite to the SEC 30 years ago and hitched its wagon to the ACC. That call may haunt the 'Noles in this era of conference realignment.

www.gatorsports.com

 

[traitor71]

You are right that Miami has been on a downward trend however Cristobol seems like he may be about to turn them around.

The guy is about to have a top 5 class, maybe near number one with the way he is going. They have gotten pretty serious about football all of a sudden. Lots of money being invested into the program, a legit athletic director and coach with a highly paid group of assistants. They will always be a transfer portal destination, and they have a pretty high powered NIL operation. They are going to get a lot of players, and that is going to lead to success. It doesn't hurt that their big rivals in the state seem to be flailing about right now. They are in a pretty good spot I think.

 

[Hoophound]

The guy is about to have a top 5 class, maybe near number one with the way he is going. They have gotten pretty serious about football all of a sudden. Lots of money being invested into the program, a legit athletic director and coach with a highly paid group of assistants. They will always be a transfer portal destination, and they have a pretty high powered NIL operation. They are going to get a lot of players, and that is going to lead to success. It doesn't hurt that their big rivals in the state seem to be flailing about right now. They are in a pretty good spot I think.

I can’t disagree that Miami is looking strong, but I think FSU is headed in the right direction. Norvell is a really good coach and the team showed some flashes last season. UF has the juice to make sure they figure out how to win. Every resource will be available.

My suspicion is that UCF will struggle in B12 and plummet back to earth.

 

[traitor71]

I can’t disagree that Miami is looking strong, but I think FSU is headed in the right direction. Norvell is a really good coach and the team showed some flashes last season. UF has the juice to make sure they figure out how to win. Every resource will be available.

My suspicion is that UCF will struggle in B12 and plummet back to earth.

I think he is doing ok, but I am going to have to see them play this year. On the surface they don't look like they have much going, but you never know.

 

[Waquoit]

You are right that Miami has been on a downward trend however Cristobol seems like he may be about to turn them around.

And he gets poached. Then what?

 

[traitor71]

And he gets poached. Then what?

He's got a ten year, 80 million dollar contract. There aren't many who would top that to get him. And all these rich big shots down here have all known each other since high school. I imagine they will just pay him more if things go well.

 

[Ldandy]

The guy is about to have a top 5 class, maybe near number one with the way he is going. They have gotten pretty serious about football all of a sudden. Lots of money being invested into the program, a legit athletic director and coach with a highly paid group of assistants. They will always be a transfer portal destination, and they have a pretty high powered NIL operation. They are going to get a lot of players, and that is going to lead to success. It doesn't hurt that their big rivals in the state seem to be flailing about right now. They are in a pretty good spot I think.

I agree with what you wrote for the most part, however it’s not really about right now it’s about 10 years from now.

Does Cristobal stay if The ACC is frozen out of the playoff by The P2? Does Shapiro keep dumping money into the program if he feels like they can’t really compete? Do recruits flock there with the idea of the program being somewhat lesser than others? This is all before you even discuss the 500+ million dollar shortfall to their SEC and B1G competitors.

So much is uncertain about the future, that its impossible to make declarative statements one way or the other. College football is better when more teams compete not less. That said those who sign the checks appear to disagree.

 

[traitor71]

I agree with what you wrote for the most part, however it’s not really about right now it’s about 10 years from now.

Does Cristobal stay if The ACC is frozen out of the playoff by The P2? Does Shapiro keep dumping money into the program if he feels like they can’t really compete? Do recruits flock there with the idea of the program being somewhat lesser than others? This is all before you even discuss the 500+ million dollar shortfall to their SEC and B1G competitors.

So much is uncertain about the future, that its impossible to make declarative statements one way or the other. College football is better when more teams compete not less. That said those who sign the checks appear to disagree.

I'm going to assume you mean Ruiz, not Shapiro, who never really did much for the university outside of a single donation that Shalala was happy to accept. I don't know what ten years from now will look like, I am mostly talking about now. They now actually have a level playing field in terms of getting players. And the kind of players that they are competing for are the kind that get you into playoff games. Once you reach that level, you aren't going to be frozen out. At the end of all this, if it ever really ends, I expect about 65 or so programs to be in the playoff, with 10-20 really having a shot, depending on how NIL evolves. I just don't think they are going to kick everyone to the curb. If they are going to go that route, then they really are going to wreck interest in the sport.

I think they are really dumping money in because they want to be at a level where they can't be excluded. It's kind of crazy, but these people are talking about building stadiums, new buildings, facilities of all sorts, and they have the cash to do it. There is also something else in play here. Ruiz, the Mas brothers, Alonso Highsmith, Cristobol, and others I probably don't know are all from Columbus High and seem to have some desire to leave some sort of a mark on the program. It sounds crazy, but there is something there. I don't know how it came about, but it seems that a terrible loss to Florida State riled these people up, and now they are just going to try and buy their way to the top, Yankees style.

 

[Ldandy]

I'm going to assume you mean Ruiz, not Shapiro, who never really did much for the university outside of a single donation that Shalala was happy to accept. I don't know what ten years from now will look like, I am mostly talking about now. They now actually have a level playing field in terms of getting players. And the kind of players that they are competing for are the kind that get you into playoff games. Once you reach that level, you aren't going to be frozen out. At the end of all this, if it ever really ends, I expect about 65 or so programs to be in the playoff, with 10-20 really having a shot, depending on how NIL evolves. I just don't think they are going to kick everyone to the curb. If they are going to go that route, then they really are going to wreck interest in the sport.

I think they are really dumping money in because they want to be at a level where they can't be excluded. It's kind of crazy, but these people are talking about building stadiums, new buildings, facilities of all sorts, and they have the cash to do it. There is also something else in play here. Ruiz, the Mas brothers, Alonso Highsmith, Cristobol, and others I probably don't know are all from Columbus High and seem to have some desire to leave some sort of a mark on the program. It sounds crazy, but there is something there. I don't know how it came about, but it seems that a terrible loss to Florida State riled these people up, and now they are just going to try and buy their way to the top, Yankees style.

You’re correct. I meant The Life Wallet Guy. Im not as impressed with Miami’s Current Recruiting as you apparently are. Miami has always been able to recruit at a high level when they have a charismatic coach. There is so much talent in the area that it’s embarrassing if you’re not landing top 10 classes every year.

My concern is not boosters willing to buy players(that’s not new) or wanting their name on a shiny new building. I would be concerned by the fact that our AD is about to face a financial disparity not seen before.

The idea of certain schools making 500-700 million dollars more over a ten year span could be devastating if you actually want to compete. JMO but regardless of what The SEC or B1G are saying publicly, they’re not done. I’d be contacting FSU, Clemson, UNC, GT, UVA, ND and whomever else might have realignment potential and ask how ***do we get out of this mess?

 

[dayooper]

You’re correct. I meant The Life Wallet Guy. Im not as impressed with Miami’s Current Recruiting as you apparently are. Miami has always been able to recruit at a high level when they have a charismatic coach. There is so much talent in the area that it’s embarrassing if you’re not landing top 10 classes every year.

My concern is not boosters willing to buy players(that’s not new) or wanting their name on a shiny new building. I would be concerned by the fact that our AD is about to face a financial disparity not seen before.

The idea of certain schools making 500-700 million dollars more over a ten year span could be devastating if you actually want to compete. JMO but regardless of what The SEC or B1G are saying publicly, they’re not done. I’d be contacting FSU, Clemson, UNC, GT, UVA, ND and whomever else might have realignment potential and ask how ***do we get out of this mess?

What is timeframe? What seems like a long time for us is pretty short in CR. It might be until the Big10 and the SEC negotiate not this next contract, but the next. Or it could be 2026 when the current playoff contract is up.

Yes, the schools that are in the mix for movement are asking, but many already know their fate. It’s why the other PAC schools not Cal or Stanford were taking to the Big12. Now they want to hold steady with the PAC. As said above, the biggest sign is how long the media contracts and GoR agreements are for the PAC.

 

[Billy Jack]

What’s unknown here is what the end game is for the B1G and the SEC. Are they stopping at 16? 20? 24?

What’s clear is that the goal is to dump the dead weight, to bring together the programs which are the money makers in college football and to leave everyone else behind so that the revenue producers are splitting up the profits with each other and not sharing it with those who don’t bring home the bacon. I think that’s the reason for the big push for Notre Dame. They are the last of the top 10 or 15 reliable revenue producers year in and year out.

To my eyes, the B1G’s moves give every indication that they will continue to grow to 20 at a minimum, probably adding 2-3 more PAC-12 schools. The frantic movement by the PAC-12 to negotiate their next TV contract may force their hand to move sooner rather than later even though I think they’d rather wait to get ND’s answer.

If the B1G continues its expansion, the SEC will most definitely follow suit even though they have said they are not making any moves “for now”. This is where Miami’s future will be decided. If/when the SEC expands, who they take will determine the future if a lot of programs.

I personally do not see 65 programs in the running when the dust settles. More like the 40-48 in the B1G and SEC. There is no reason to corner the market and the money, only then to open up playoff money to everyone else. The leftovers will still have bowls to go to, but the B1G and SEC will have their own playoffs and championship game. That’s the one that will matter.

I think that basketball is a whole different animal. The NCAA basketball tournament is to big a money maker to eliminate. As women’s basketball increases in popularity, the two tournaments combined will only make more and more money. There’s no way that the B1G and SEC can make a claim to having the best basketball programs the way they can in football. The expanded B1G hasn’t won a NC since 2000. The SEC hasn’t won one in the past decade. Except for Florida’s back-to-back championships in ‘06-‘07 and Arkansas in ‘94, no team not named Kentucky has ever won a NC in basketball in the 80+ year history on NC competition. It’s not a basketball league. If they try to keep a basketball championship for themselves, we’ll be back to the days of 2 tournaments, each claiming to be the true championship tournament. That makes no sense for anyone.

National championship competition has evolved differently for the 2 sports. I think that will mean different outcomes for championship competition in the 2 sports. Football money is really what they’re after with this current realignment. They don’t really care about basketball money for these purposes. So, there should still be a seat at table for all of the remaining basketball leagues just as there is today, including the Big East.

 

[Stinger92860]

Somehow FSU and Miami will be just fine.

 

[bobbyinaz]

What’s unknown here is what the end game is for the B1G and the SEC. Are they stopping at 16? 20? 24?

What’s clear is that the goal is to dump the dead weight, to bring together the programs which are the money makers in college football and to leave everyone else behind so that the revenue producers are splitting up the profits with each other and not sharing it with those who don’t bring home the bacon. I think that’s the reason for the big push for Notre Dame. They are the last of the top 10 or 15 reliable revenue producers year in and year out.

To my eyes, the B1G’s moves give every indication that they will continue to grow to 20 at a minimum, probably adding 2-3 more PAC-12 schools. The frantic movement by the PAC-12 to negotiate their next TV contract may force their hand to move sooner rather than later even though I think they’d rather wait to get ND’s answer.

If the B1G continues its expansion, the SEC will most definitely follow suit even though they have said they are not making any moves “for now”. This is where Miami’s future will be decided. If/when the SEC expands, who they take will determine the future if a lot of programs.

I personally do not see 65 programs in the running when the dust settles. More like the 40-48 in the B1G and SEC. There is no reason to corner the market and the money, only then to open up playoff money to everyone else. The leftovers will still have bowls to go to, but the B1G and SEC will have their own playoffs and championship game. That’s the one that will matter.

I think that basketball is a whole different animal. The NCAA basketball tournament is to big a money maker to eliminate. As women’s basketball increases in popularity, the two tournaments combined will only make more and more money. There’s no way that the B1G and SEC can make a claim to having the best basketball programs the way they can in football. The expanded B1G hasn’t won a NC since 2000. The SEC hasn’t won one in the past decade. Except for Florida’s back-to-back championships in ‘06-‘07 and Arkansas in ‘94, no team not named Kentucky has ever won a NC in basketball in the 80+ year history on NC competition. It’s not a basketball league. If they try to keep a basketball championship for themselves, we’ll be back to the days of 2 tournaments, each claiming to be the true championship tournament. That makes no sense for anyone.

National championship competition has evolved differently for the 2 sports. I think that will mean different outcomes for championship competition in the 2 sports. Football money is really what they’re after with this current realignment. They don’t really care about basketball money for these purposes. So, there should still be a seat at table for all of the remaining basketball leagues just as there is today, including the Big East.

March Madness — ACC, Big Ten Earn $36.4 Million in NCAA Tournament

The ACC and Big Ten made the most money in the 2022 NCAA Tournament.

www.basketballinsiders.com

While the hoops tourney is a huge money maker for the NCAA it's not flowing down to the schools. The NCAA made over $800MM and the most any conference got was $36MM. The SEC/B1G look at that as lost money being shared with others.

The "new" tournament doesn't have to pay them $1B like the NCAA currently gets

All it takes is somebody like Apple or Amazon to decide that they are willing to pay the SEC/B1G more than they currently get to cause a break.

 

[traitor71]

You’re correct. I meant The Life Wallet Guy. Im not as impressed with Miami’s Current Recruiting as you apparently are. Miami has always been able to recruit at a high level when they have a charismatic coach. There is so much talent in the area that it’s embarrassing if you’re not landing top 10 classes every year.

My concern is not boosters willing to buy players(that’s not new) or wanting their name on a shiny new building. I would be concerned by the fact that our AD is about to face a financial disparity not seen before.

The idea of certain schools making 500-700 million dollars more over a ten year span could be devastating if you actually want to compete. JMO but regardless of what The SEC or B1G are saying publicly, they’re not done. I’d be contacting FSU, Clemson, UNC, GT, UVA, ND and whomever else might have realignment potential and ask how ***do we get out of this mess?

Just talking about the recruiting really quickly so as not to gum this thread up. If you aren't impressed by what they are doing right now, you probably can't be impressed. They are getting commits from the Alabama, OSU, Georgia level kids. Those are the difference makers, especially on the line of scrimmage, who get you in contention. You never know how it plays out, but it's the level you need to be at.

 

[Billy Jack]

March Madness — ACC, Big Ten Earn $36.4 Million in NCAA Tournament

The ACC and Big Ten made the most money in the 2022 NCAA Tournament.

www.basketballinsiders.com

While the hoops tourney is a huge money maker for the NCAA it's not flowing down to the schools. The NCAA made over $800MM and the most any conference got was $36MM. The SEC/B1G look at that as lost money being shared with others.

The "new" tournament doesn't have to pay them $1B like the NCAA currently gets

All it takes is somebody like Apple or Amazon to decide that they are willing to pay the SEC/B1G more than they currently get to cause a break.

Good point. Maybe if the NCAA realizes that it’s golden goose is threatened, they’ll start sharing more of the money with the schools. A smaller share of the big tournament is still better revenue for them than a big share of a smaller tournament - or even no tournament. Hopefully they’re smart enough to realize that.

 

[HuskyinWRNY]

What’s unknown here is what the end game is for the B1G and the SEC. Are they stopping at 16? 20? 24?

What’s clear is that the goal is to dump the dead weight, to bring together the programs which are the money makers in college football and to leave everyone else behind so that the revenue producers are splitting up the profits with each other and not sharing it with those who don’t bring home the bacon. I think that’s the reason for the big push for Notre Dame. They are the last of the top 10 or 15 reliable revenue producers year in and year out.

To my eyes, the B1G’s moves give every indication that they will continue to grow to 20 at a minimum, probably adding 2-3 more PAC-12 schools. The frantic movement by the PAC-12 to negotiate their next TV contract may force their hand to move sooner rather than later even though I think they’d rather wait to get ND’s answer.

If the B1G continues its expansion, the SEC will most definitely follow suit even though they have said they are not making any moves “for now”. This is where Miami’s future will be decided. If/when the SEC expands, who they take will determine the future if a lot of programs.

I personally do not see 65 programs in the running when the dust settles. More like the 40-48 in the B1G and SEC. There is no reason to corner the market and the money, only then to open up playoff money to everyone else. The leftovers will still have bowls to go to, but the B1G and SEC will have their own playoffs and championship game. That’s the one that will matter.

I think that basketball is a whole different animal. The NCAA basketball tournament is to big a money maker to eliminate. As women’s basketball increases in popularity, the two tournaments combined will only make more and more money. There’s no way that the B1G and SEC can make a claim to having the best basketball programs the way they can in football. The expanded B1G hasn’t won a NC since 2000. The SEC hasn’t won one in the past decade. Except for Florida’s back-to-back championships in ‘06-‘07 and Arkansas in ‘94, no team not named Kentucky has ever won a NC in basketball in the 80+ year history on NC competition. It’s not a basketball league. If they try to keep a basketball championship for themselves, we’ll be back to the days of 2 tournaments, each claiming to be the true championship tournament. That makes no sense for anyone.

National championship competition has evolved differently for the 2 sports. I think that will mean different outcomes for championship competition in the 2 sports. Football money is really what they’re after with this current realignment. They don’t really care about basketball money for these purposes. So, there should still be a seat at table for all of the remaining basketball leagues just as there is today, including the Big East.

I don't disagree with you but I don't see them jettising dead wood. They will need someone to beat up on to pad their resumes. Just my humble opinion.

 

[Ldandy]

Just talking about the recruiting really quickly so as not to gum this thread up. If you aren't impressed by what they are doing right now, you probably can't be impressed. They are getting commits from the Alabama, OSU, Georgia level kids. Those are the difference makers, especially on the line of scrimmage, who get you in contention. You never know how it plays out, but it's the level you need to be at.

Again, recruiting should never be an issue at Miami. There is more talent concentrated in one city than in the entirety of most states. As long as there is reasonable access to the playoff, high profile coaches interested in being on the sidelines, and recruits know that they will be able to play in big time matchups on TV recruiting will remain fine. That said the only way those three things are guaranteed is by finding a way into The SEC or B1G. Being in a compromised ACC or Frankenstein's Monster Conference with The Big 12 or PAC 12 is not going to be sustainable in the future.

 

[traitor71]

Again, recruiting should never be an issue at Miami. There is more talent concentrated in one city than in the entirety of most states. As long as there is reasonable access to the playoff, high profile coaches interested in being on the sidelines, and recruits know that they will be able to play in big time matchups on TV recruiting will remain fine. That said the only way those three things are guaranteed is by finding a way into The SEC or B1G. Being in a compromised ACC or Frankenstein's Monster Conference with The Big 12 or PAC 12 is not going to be sustainable in the future.

It has been an issue for them though. It's what happens when you go cheap on coaches and facilities, which is how they played it under Shalala and Blake James. There are a lot of good players to be had, but you need the top kids to try and keep pace with the teams that go to the playoffs every year.

 

[billybud]

Miami is currently 247's #9 in 2023 class ranking....

 

[Billy Jack]

It has been an issue for them though. It's what happens when you go cheap on coaches and facilities, which is how they played it under Shalala and Blake James. There are a lot of good players to be had, but you need the top kids to try and keep pace with the teams that go to the playoffs every year.

This is an interesting criticism of Shalala. During her tenure, the U built up its endowment to a billion dollars and brought its university ranking into the top 50 for the first time.

 

[traitor71]

This is an interesting criticism of Shalala. During her tenure, the U built up its endowment to a billion dollars and brought its university ranking into the top 50 for the first time.

It's just the reality of it. The athletic department wasn't much of a priority for her. Really nothing more to it than that.