Key tweets, and it's all gone to Hell.

[noeynox]

Schools leaving the ACC to the B1G or SEC will go from $36M to AT LEAST $100M a year.

LOL. They will figure it out. It’s adorable that people think Wake Forest is going to gum up the works.

Yeah but it's not just Wake. Your talking like 10 schools letting 4 leave early and relegating themselves MUCH sooner. That's why IMO if you had 8 schools getting poached, in theory you could dissolve the conference. Again, I just point to the the last big 2 moves happening at the end GOR. For years Texas and Oklahoma refused on extending any GOR. It was publicly discussed the last few years, they opposed it and we saw why.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Schools leaving the ACC to the B1G or SEC will go from $36M to AT LEAST $100M a year.

LOL. They will figure it out. It’s adorable that people think Wake Forest is going to gum up the works.

The ACC schools hold all the cards in the negotiation. If Clemson is pulling out $33 million a year from the ACC, and would get $115 million from the Big 10 or SEC, then it would be worth it for Clemson to leave if the ACC would get $82 million a year from the Big 10. Is Clemson willing to pay $82 million (and growing) per year until 2037 or whenever the ACC GOR ends? That would be the opening position for me if I was Wake Forest's President.

 

[ZooCougar]

The ACC schools hold all the cards in the negotiation. If Clemson is pulling out $33 million a year from the ACC, and would get $115 million from the Big 10 or SEC, then it would be worth it for Clemson to leave if the ACC would get $82 million a year from the Big 10. Is Clemson willing to pay $82 million (and growing) per year until 2037 or whenever the ACC GOR ends? That would be the opening position for me if I was Wake Forest's President.

No. Because in a settlement they will only end up paying $33-36M. Good luck to Wake Forest. I don’t think anyone will want to go to court over this.

 

[shizzle787]

I really hope we can make this thread just key tweets with no commentary. Keep the commentary to the non-key tweets thread.

 

[CL82]

Still a crazy amount but more palatable than 400 million.

Yeah, I think it’s still high. I think the right number is actually closer to $108 million. $52 million exit fee plus the value that Notre Dame currently gets from the ACC for its basketball an Olympic sports rights which I think is $4 million a year. So $52 million + $56 million is $108 M.

 

[CL82]

I really hope we can make this thread just key tweets with no commentary. Keep the commentary to the non-key tweets thread.

Yeah, that’s just crazy talk.

 

[Stinger92860]

Every person in Fairfield County has just one TV? I find that hard to believe. If we count their cell phones it’s at least double that number. I have to think 2.7 million TV sets would be even more attractive.

I meant to write households. It’s 1.35 million households in the state of connecticut when you add in the Fairfield DMA

 

[Eavesdrop]

The ACC schools hold all the cards in the negotiation. If Clemson is pulling out $33 million a year from the ACC, and would get $115 million from the Big 10 or SEC, then it would be worth it for Clemson to leave if the ACC would get $82 million a year from the Big 10. Is Clemson willing to pay $82 million (and growing) per year until 2037 or whenever the ACC GOR ends? That would be the opening position for me if I was Wake Forest's President.

I'm not so sure. There are two factors to consider.

First, the current withdrawal fee to leave the ACC is probably about $100 million. Fortunately, withdrawal fees have been negotiated down in the past. So, maybe an exiting ACC school could get that number cut in half?

The second and far bigger issue is the grant of rights. If your example school, Clemson, left the ACC without regaining those rights, Disney would still be writing checks to the ACC for the broadcast of all Tigers' home games. I suppose Clemson theoretically could agree to play all their games on the road (or at a neutral site) for their first decade in a new conference as a workaround. But that isn't going to happen. An exiting member simply must regain their broadcast rights before leaving.

The first way to regain those rights is through negotiation. The average payout per school that the ACC will receive from Disney over the next 13 years is worth what $300 to $400 million? But Clemson is really worth more than that to ACC. Why? Because ESPN is likely going to revise their contract with the ACC down if the Tigers leave. There just isn't much incentive for the ACC to negotiate.

Another way out is to dissolve the conference so that the GOR is nullified. It currently requires a supermajority vote to dissolve the ACC. I'm unsure what number constitutes a supermajority, but Clemson would need a bunch of schools to have new homes lined up for this to work.

Probably the last mechanism is legal. Clemson's lawyers would need to find a flaw in the agreement that would allow a school to win a court case.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I'm not so sure. There are two factors to consider.

First, the current withdrawal fee to leave the ACC is probably about $100 million. Fortunately, withdrawal fees have been negotiated down in the past. So, maybe an exiting ACC school could get that number cut in half?

The second and far bigger issue is the grant of rights. If your example school, Clemson, left the ACC without regaining those rights, Disney would still be writing checks to the ACC for the broadcast of all Tigers' home games. I suppose Clemson theoretically could agree to play all their games on the road (or at a neutral site) for their first decade in a new conference as a workaround. But that isn't going to happen. An exiting member simply must regain their broadcast rights before leaving.

The first way to regain those rights is through negotiation. The average payout per school that the ACC will receive from Disney over the next 13 years is worth what $300 to $400 million? But Clemson is really worth more than that to ACC. Why? Because ESPN is likely going to revise their contract with the ACC down if the Tigers leave. There just isn't much incentive for the ACC to negotiate.

Another way out is to dissolve the conference so that the GOR is nullified. It currently requires a supermajority vote to dissolve the ACC. I'm unsure what number constitutes a supermajority, but Clemson would need a bunch of schools to have new homes lined up for this to work.

Probably the last mechanism is legal. Clemson's lawyers would need to find a flaw in the agreement that would allow a school to win a court case.

Is there a GoR or isn’t there? You guys act like a media rights deal is some weird, complex document. There are tens of thousands of media and content rights deals in existence that have been extensively litigated over the years. There is not a lot of new ground to cover here.

If you are saying there is a back door in it, then say that.

 

[baggerbob]

I'm not so sure. There are two factors to consider.

First, the current withdrawal fee to leave the ACC is probably about $100 million. Fortunately, withdrawal fees have been negotiated down in the past. So, maybe an exiting ACC school could get that number cut in half?

The second and far bigger issue is the grant of rights. If your example school, Clemson, left the ACC without regaining those rights, Disney would still be writing checks to the ACC for the broadcast of all Tigers' home games. I suppose Clemson theoretically could agree to play all their games on the road (or at a neutral site) for their first decade in a new conference as a workaround. But that isn't going to happen. An exiting member simply must regain their broadcast rights before leaving.

The first way to regain those rights is through negotiation. The average payout per school that the ACC will receive from Disney over the next 13 years is worth what $300 to $400 million? But Clemson is really worth more than that to ACC. Why? Because ESPN is likely going to revise their contract with the ACC down if the Tigers leave. There just isn't much incentive for the ACC to negotiate.

Another way out is to dissolve the conference so that the GOR is nullified. It currently requires a supermajority vote to dissolve the ACC. I'm unsure what number constitutes a supermajority, but Clemson would need a bunch of schools to have new homes lined up for this to work.

Probably the last mechanism is legal. Clemson's lawyers would need to find a flaw in the agreement that would allow a school to win a court case.

The Mouse owns the rights to the SEC and ACC, and they are in the GOR. So if they feel Clemson, Florida St, and Miami are better off in the SEC they will go.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Another way out is to dissolve the conference so that the GOR is nullified. It currently requires a supermajority vote to dissolve the ACC. I'm unsure what number constitutes a supermajority, but Clemson would need a bunch of schools to have new homes lined up for this to work.

I agree with this, but ESPN would have to help out.

 

[CL82]

I meant to write households. It’s 1.35 million households in the state of connecticut when you add in the Fairfield DMA

Is it? I actually thought it was a little over 1 million population, not households.

 

[BigTenFan]

How much does Uconn get for their current TV contract?

 

[CL82]

How much does Uconn get for their current TV contract?

Something like 4 million for the big east and $500,000 for football from CBS Sports net

 

[Eavesdrop]

The Mouse owns the rights to the SEC and ACC, and they are in the GOR. So if they feel Clemson, Florida St, and Miami are better off in the SEC they will go.

The original ACC grant of rights agreement is linked in a recent Athletic article. Member schools granted their rights to the conference, not ESPN.

https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2022/07/01185531/ACC-Grant-of-Rights-1.pdf

 

[CL82]

The original ACC grant of rights agreement is linked in a recent Athletic article. Member schools granted their rights to the conference, not ESPN.

https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2022/07/01185531/ACC-Grant-of-Rights-1.pdf

The conference sold those rights to ESPN

 

[ZooCougar]

The conference sold those rights to ESPN

That’s right and how funny will it be when Wake Forest, BC and Syracuse sue ESPN. I mean, they wouldn’t do that but it would be great.

 

[noeynox]

How much does Uconn get for their current TV contract?

UConn gets paid IOUs from ESPN.

 

[Rufus]

Cole Cubelic

@colecubelic

I'm told he #B1G just went from .10 per cable subscriber in the LA market to potentially $1.50 per subscriber in the LA market PER MONTH with the addition of USC & UCLA.


12:36 PM · Jul 1, 2022·Twitter for iPhone

 

[NH Husky]

Again, schools like Wake, Pitt, Cuse, etc will voluntarily assist in dismantling the GOR just to make it easier for Clemson, UNC, etc?

There is no destination that they would leave for that won't be there after GOR payments are agreed upon. There would be far too much financial incentive for the "have nots" to hold tight as long as possible.

They will reach the tipping point where accepting a payout makes more sense than clinging on.
Another post said the ACC making a bold move is the way to go. Gobble up the B12 quality and firmly position yourself in third place. Ball it and become an equal

 

[NH Husky]

I think 60 is the magic number. 20 B1G, 20 SEC, and 20 ACC (if they play there cards right).
And I think UCONN has a good shot at being a part of that 60

 

[Stinger92860]

Is it? I actually thought it was a little over 1 million population, not households.

View attachment 77335

It’s the 345K+ plus the 980K+ houeholds. I got those numbers from other sites. What do you think the total is?

The CT population is 3.5M. I’m not looking to argue, I am looking for real data.

 

[CL82]

It’s the 345K+ plus the 980K+. I got those numbers from other sites. What do you think the total is?

Well given that the population of the state of Connecticut is around 3 million, I thought that a third of that was located in Fairfield County and 2/3 and the rest of the state. And less household in Fairfield County only have one person in them it should be lower than 1 million, but, all that is from information I read a while ago and that link I posted.

 

[NH Husky]

We are New England’s team. There are a ton of people in NE that live football.
Hey those hungry VT, NH, and ME “red necks” balling for UCONN. The VT/NH high school game draws a nice crowd.

 

[Stinger92860]

Well given that the population of the state of Connecticut is around 3 million, I thought that a third of that was located in Fairfield County and 2/3 and the rest of the state. And less household in Fairfield County only have one person in them it should be lower than 1 million, but, all that is from information I read a while ago and that link I posted.

Most recent population is 3.5 to 3.6 Million from a quick search, so I trust the households at 1.3 to 1.4 million.

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/CT

This would put CT at the #21 DMA. Based on this we should be in a P3.