Has WCB Parity arrived?

[SVCBeercats]

Has WBC parity arrived or is Baylor the new UCONN? For me, a UCONN fan, it looks like parity has arrived. The NCAA is up for grabs and may remain so. Is UCONN's recruiting for 2020 and 2021 enough for them to return to a dominate position? What do you think?

 

[shiverz45]

Oregon the new UCONN? At least let them win a title first.

 

[mbr33ct]

Has WBC parity arrived or is Oregon the new UCONN? For me, a UCONN fan, it looks like parity has arrived. The NCAA is up for grabs and may remain so. Is UCONN's recruiting for 2020 and 2021 enough for them to return to a dominate position? What do you think?

Fixed your post for you...and what @shiverz45 said.

 

[LoTrader]

Answer: Yes, for sure, don't see any team winning as many consecutive championships as UCONN has in the past.

 

[EricLA]

This year yes. After that, for the next 3 years, no. IMHO the NC is UCONN's to lose. No one will have the elite level talent (ie. top 5 recruits at every position) that UCONN will have. Baylor and Stanford will be 2 and 3 (not necessarily in that order), then a drop off and the rest of WCBB after that.

I realize that kids need to be coached, but look at the crazy talent UCONN will have:

2017 Walker (1)
2018 Williams (1), Westbrook (2), ONO (5)
2019 None in the top 5 but Griffin and Makurat are excellent
2020 Bueckers (1), I believe Edwards is top 5
2021 Deberry (5)

Add to that top 20's Poffenbarger, McLean, and Muhl (I believe she's top 10 or 15).

Next year starters of Bueckers, Westbrook, Williams, Walker and ONO. Griffin, Makurat, McLean, Muhl, Gabriel and Edwards off the bench. Crazy talent. The next year even more crazy if only Walker leaves. Add in Saylor and Amari and whoever else we land for 2021, and it's insane.

 

[Centerstream]

Define "parity".
To me, parity means any of at least 5 teams or better yet, 10, have the same chance to be the NC. Not 1 or 2 teams or a team that might win 2 NCs in a row.
Just my opinion.

 

[LoTrader]

This year yes. After that, for the next 3 years, no. IMHO the NC is UCONN's to lose. No one will have the elite level talent (ie. top 5 recruits at every position) that UCONN will have. Baylor and Stanford will be 2 and 3 (not necessarily in that order), then a drop off and the rest of WCBB after that.

I realize that kids need to be coached, but look at the crazy talent UCONN will have:

2017 Walker (1)
2018 Williams (1), Westbrook (2), ONO (5)
2019 None in the top 5 but Griffin and Makurat are excellent
2020 Bueckers (1), I believe Edwards is top 5
2021 Deberry (5)

Add to that top 20's Poffenbarger, McLean, and Muhl (I believe she's top 10 or 15).

Next year starters of Bueckers, Westbrook, Williams, Walker and ONO. Griffin, Makurat, McLean, Muhl, Gabriel and Edwards off the bench. Crazy talent. The next year even more crazy if only Walker leaves. Add in Saylor and Amari and whoever else we land for 2021, and it's insane.

When I look around the country at other recruiting classes, and, coaches, I still see parity for years ahead. The days of UCONN winning consecutive national championships may still happen, but not with the certainty of the past.

 

[willtalk]

Players now put as much emphasis on getting early playing time as they do development. One reason that the incoming UConn class is taking an upturn, is that there is less talent and therefore less competition. Call has a bunch of good posts coming in next season. Reason? Because any that come in next season will be starters. Programs that developed dynasties in the past did so by continually getting top-level players. They would have the spots filled rather than having to wait a year to get a commit because there is a vacancy.

Today's top-level high school recruit does not want to wait their turn on the bench behind another AA in front of them. The process of waiting your turn has recently taken a hit because from one year to the next those that wait can easily be jumped over by a better one-year grad transfer. The time when a few top programs are able to consistently stockpile a bunch of good players, which not only supplied depth but also facilitated continuity is over. It will take a few years for the new WCBB landscape to establish itself, but it is in the process of happening. I believe better programs and more players staying in the West is a major part of that as well.

 

[j66kicker]

Players now put as much emphasis on getting early playing time as they do development. One reason that the incoming UConn class is taking an upturn, is that there is less talent and therefore less competition. Call has a bunch of good posts coming in next season. Reason? Because any that come in next season will be starters. Programs that developed dynasties in the past did so by continually getting top-level players. They would have the spots filled rather than having to wait a year to get a commit because there is a vacancy.

Today's top-level high school recruit does not want to wait their turn on the bench behind another AA in front of them. The process of waiting your turn has recently taken a hit because from one year to the next those that wait can easily be jumped over by a better one-year grad transfer. The time when a few top programs are able to consistently stockpile a bunch of good players, which not only supplied depth but also facilitated continuity is over. It will take a few years for the new WCBB landscape to establish itself, but it is in the process of happening. I believe better programs and more players staying in the West is a major part of that as well.

It will change again if playing in the WNBA ever gets to be more lucrative. Then the age minimum will be challenged (successfully) and the best players will go early, moving more toward the men's one-and-done model.

 

[nwhoopfan]

It will change again if playing in the WNBA ever gets to be more lucrative. Then the age minimum will be challenged (successfully) and the best players will go early, moving more toward the men's one-an-done model.

I hope it doesn't come to that. Getting to watch a player improve and mature over 4 years is such a treat. Such a stark contrast to men's hoops.

 

[eebmg]

It will change again if playing in the WNBA ever gets to be more lucrative. Then the age minimum will be challenged (successfully) and the best players will go early, moving more toward the men's one-and-done model.

I would think the majority of gains in salary in the WNBA would be targeted to the
established veterans. The rookie scale would be the last to rise imho.

 

[Lwrc]

Has WBC parity arrived or is Baylor the new UCONN? For me, a UCONN fan, it looks like parity has arrived. The NCAA is up for grabs and may remain so. Is UCONN's recruiting for 2020 and 2021 enough for them to return to a dominate position? What do you think?

I would say yes and no.

Yes in several ways, mostly those already mentioned. Immediate playing time, the rise of the Pac12, and other stuff mentioned. I would add three big points to the trend towards parity.

One, Geno is not as legendary as he was once was. I say that with the highest regard towards the best women’s coach ever. But young players are not seeing Geno like they saw him 10 years ago, or Pat 25 years ago. Whether it’s Muffet, Dawn, Graves, Mulkey or the next big name (Kellie Harper?), too young players see multiple good options. Geno closing in on retiring only fuels that fire.

Second, transfers. Good players move teams and create parity. Good players who might have stuck it out under Geno or Pat in the past are now moving on more quickly. This will continue to create parity.

Third, deeper talent pools. I have watched WBB for over 20 years and in my opinion the talent level of players has grown ALOT. The difference between a player in the top 10 versus a player ranked in 50-75 range is not nearly as different as it used to be. Look at this years freshman class across WCBB. And next years class even stronger. This trend will continue to create a lot more parity. Someone with UConn blinders will say “the NC is UConns to lose the next three years” and hasn’t watched enough of these young girls. UConns recruits are awesome yes, but there are a lot of awesome players now. Paige is not on some different level than all the others. (She’s great and deserving of her accolades). As an example, if you think that Paige and company will have no problem with the combo of Cooke and Boston (and Dawn) for the next four years that’s crazy. And that’s just one example.

No in a couple senses too. One, the parity isn’t happening quickly. So it’s very gradual and not super noticeable. As another poster said, parity amongst 5-6 programs yes (I think we have arrived at that). But amongst 10-15 programs no (but we’re headed that way). Secondly, no in a sense that traditional powers (UConn, SC, Baylor) will likely stay powerhouses for a long time. Although one might want to include Notre Dame on that list and I do think they are on the brink of slipping into the 10-20 range for years to come. Clark not picking ND speaks loudly to this parity trend.

 

[donalddoowop]

Geno may not be legendary to American players anymore but there seems to be a number of foreign players who are thrilled to be contacted by the UConn coaching staff. American players will see that and realize that UConn will not wait around for them to drag out their decision, so if they really want to go to UConn, they may start committing to UConn earlier, as did Poffenbarger.

 

[eebmg]

Geno may not be legendary to American players anymore but there seems to be a number of foreign players who are thrilled to be contacted by the UConn coaching staff. American players will see that and realize that UConn will not wait around for them to drag out their decision, so if they really want to go to UConn, they may start committing to UConn earlier, as did Poffenbarger.

as long as the most elite of elite see it (Paige and hopefully Azzi).

 

[Bigboote]

I'm with EricLA -- this year, maybe, but not for awhile after that.