Creme Brktology 2/23

[bballnut90]

For me it would be UConn PLUS the power 5 leaders PLUS the two power 5 2d place team that haave a solid chance to pass the leaders. Arizona on the edge of being in top 8. Winner of SCar v. TxA&M will jump Maryland and Baylor next week. Loser may be jumped by Arizona.

1. UConn
2. Stan
3. NC State
4. Louisville
5. Maryland
6. Baylor
7. TAMU
8. SCar

A&M cut and dry has a better resume at this point than Maryland or Baylor. I don't see Arizona as a plausible threat to jump either team.

 

[Vowelguy]

Updated with columns showing record against teams seeded #5-11 by Creme. I stop at 11 since that's where the last at-large teams are.

 

[Bama fan]

show some, any, evidence of this

That is no longer de rigueur. Keep up!

 

[Bigboote]

I think Plebe has the same love for the ACC as I do for cooked green vegetables

My father in law is of the opinion that if it doesn't have legs or fins, he'd just as soon not have it put in front of him (except potatoes and bread).

 

[nwhoopfan]

Stanford (or any west coast team) nearly always got a break in the bracket. The weakest 1 or 2 seed was a virtual lock to be sent out west because of the geography rule and the fact that the west coast was almost always the furthest site for the rest of the 1 and 2 seeds. The games were seemingly always played on a court the Trees were familiar with.

I'm pretty sure that statement won't hold up to scrutiny. In 2018 Notre Dame was the #1 seed shipped out West, and since they cut the nets down they clearly weren't the weakest #1. Last 2 Tourneys the games have been played in Portland and Spokane, which are not arenas the Pac 12 teams are familiar with.

I'm going to keep going back further but I'm sure I'll find more results that don't jive with your position.

The Trees haven't been getting the highest seed of Pac 12 teams in recent years and thus have been sent packing themselves.

Also, UConn ALWAYS is either in Connecticut or New York. Baylor rarely has to leave Texas. Other teams routinely get breaks in the Tourney when it comes to geography.


edit--2017 South Carolina was shipped to Stockton (again not a Pac 12 familiar arena) and won the Championship that year; must not have been the weakest #1, again

2016 West Regional was in Sioux Falls, SD, which was due north of the Midwest Regional in Dallas; that location was an absolute joke, not even remotely close to being in the "West."

 

[Vowelguy]

I'm pretty sure that statement won't hold up to scrutiny.

It's up there with the "UConn always gets the toughest bracket" nonsense.

 

[nwhoopfan]

I went back about 20 years. UConn has been shipped around more than I realized, so my apologies for that.

But I was mostly right. Stanford hasn't been given preferential treatment routinely. Spokane has hosted a lot of the West Regionals, and some other random locations like Fresno, Sacramento, Stockton, Albuquerque and Sioux Falls like I mentioned previously. None of those are familiar locations for Stanford, and they haven't always been assigned to those regions anyway.

 

[Alydar]

I'm pretty sure that statement won't hold up to scrutiny. In 2018 Notre Dame was the #1 seed shipped out West, and since they cut the nets down they clearly weren't the weakest #1. Last 2 Tourneys the games have been played in Portland and Spokane, which are not arenas the Pac 12 teams are familiar with.

I'm going to keep going back further but I'm sure I'll find more results that don't jive with your position.

The Trees haven't been getting the highest seed of Pac 12 teams in recent years and thus have been sent packing themselves.

Also, UConn ALWAYS is either in Connecticut or New York. Baylor rarely has to leave Texas. Other teams routinely get breaks in the Tourney when it comes to geography.


edit--2017 South Carolina was shipped to Stockton (again not a Pac 12 familiar arena) and won the Championship that year; must not have been the weakest #1, again

2016 West Regional was in Sioux Falls, SD, which was due north of the Midwest Regional in Dallas; that location was an absolute joke, not even remotely close to being in the "West."

I should amend my statement to say in years when Stanford was a 1 or 2 seed, which is still a lot of years. And in most of those years they were the only western team in the top 8. They were virtually guaranteed playing in the west region against the weakest one or two seed simply because the other 3 teams were all a long way from the west site and it was always left to the 4th one seed. If Stanford was a 2 seed they got the worst 1 seed for the above reason.

Now just because they were the worst seed doesn't mean they are in fact the worst, but it's more likely than not.
As for the arena, let's say it was S Carolina vs any likely west coast team, like UCLA. It's got to be a thousand miles or more from LA to Portland, but I'll wager on the crowd being heavily for the women from LaLa land.
UConn has made it's own edge with their popularity. It makes hosting a regional within driving distance of Storrs very profitable compared to other sites and that is a huge help in a bidding environment. But that wouldn't mean diddly unless UConn earned their seeding.

 

[nwhoopfan]

I guess I'm not really seeing what you're seeing @Alydar . Should the top team in the West not be seeded somewhere in the West? Do you think Stanford didn't earn their seed many of those years? UConn, Stanford and Notre Dame are the only 3 schools that have consistently gotten to the Final 4 over an extended time frame, and I don't think you can credit "easy" brackets for that.

 

[Adriacus]

Also, UConn ALWAYS is either in Connecticut or New York. Baylor rarely has to leave Texas. Other teams routinely get breaks in the Tourney when it comes to geography.

Don’t let facts get in the way of an internet tirade.

Baylor’s last 10 Regional sites [from most recent to oldest]:

Greensboro, NC
Lexington, KY
OK City, OK
Dallas, TX
OK City, OK
Notre Dame, IN
OK City, OK
Des Moines, IA
Dallas, TX
Memphis, TN

...is 8 out of 10 really “rarely”?

 

[nwhoopfan]

Don’t let facts get in the way of an internet tirade.

Baylor’s last 10 Regional sites [from most recent to oldest]:

Greensboro, NC
Lexington, KY
OK City, OK
Dallas, TX
OK City, OK
Notre Dame, IN
OK City, OK
Des Moines, IA
Dallas, TX
Memphis, TN

...is 8 out of 10 really “rarely”?

Well see, my perceptions are just as off as other people's perceptions. We all have our biases.

 

[#1florida]

Women's Bracketology: LSU, Iowa open on top line, but UConn is No. 1 overall

LSU and Iowa open as top seeds along with UConn and Utah. The Huskies are No. 1 overall in our first projection for 2023-24.

www.espn.com

UConn with Arizona, Baylor, Ark

1. UConn
2. Stan
3. SoCar
4. TAMU
5. NC St
6. Lou
7. Maryland
8. Arizona

Why is South Carolina a one seed, and ranked 6th.

 

[#1florida]

I know SC has lost 3 games but they have more Top 25 wins than anybody and you can't just discount that and they haven't lost to ANYBODY out of the top 25. You have to look at the entire resume. Look at the strength of schedules of the other teams you are putting in front of them. Now I agree they shouldn't have lost some of those games, but they've won a bunch others against the rest of the best. If we don't win both of our remaining games I'm with you but for this week don't shortchange your team just because you think they should be better.

How many top 10 teams has South Carolina beaten? One, and it was Ky, which was ranked 10th at the time, and they are now 17th. They lost to Uconn and N C State, both top 10 teams.

 

[#1florida]

For starters, no way either should be behind Louisville.

View attachment 64919

I only find 2 top 16 teams that South Carolina beat? Maybe it is my old eyes, playing tricks on me.

 

[Urshurak]

Don’t let facts get in the way of an internet tirade.

Baylor’s last 10 Regional sites [from most recent to oldest]:

Greensboro, NC
Lexington, KY
OK City, OK
Dallas, TX
OK City, OK
Notre Dame, IN
OK City, OK
Des Moines, IA
Dallas, TX
Memphis, TN

...is 8 out of 10 really “rarely”?

Well......OK City is 3 hours and 45 minutes from Waco, TX, so I'm gonna call it 5 out of 10!

To be honest, not a bad deal overall for Baylor.

 

[Vowelguy]

I only find 2 top 16 teams that South Carolina beat? Maybe it is my old eyes, playing tricks on me.

looking at the Creme top 16 (based on the committee top 16), they have beaten Kentucky x2, Georgia, Arkansas.

 

[Vowelguy]

Why is South Carolina a one seed, and ranked 6th.

Because the AP & Coaches polls have nothing to do with how seeding is done.

 

[#1florida]

Because the AP & Coaches polls have nothing to do with how seeding is done.

That was not my point. What makes them qualified over a couple of other teams who are deserving.

 

[#1florida]

looking at the Creme top 16 (based on the committee top 16), they have beaten Kentucky x2, Georgia, Arkansas.

Creme is in a world of his own.

 

[STLCardinal]

Creme is in a world of his own.

I agree, and will add that many others at ESPN have joined him with their SEC bias.

 

[visitingcock]

How many top 10 teams has South Carolina beaten? One, and it was Ky, which was ranked 10th at the time, and they are now 17th. They lost to Uconn and N C State, both top 10 teams.

Looks like SCar has beaten 4 top 16 teams out of 7 that they played

If you are looking at AP rankings, you are looking in the wrong place. Look at the NET rankings.

 

[Adriacus]

Well......OK City is 3 hours and 45 minutes from Waco, TX, so I'm gonna call it 5 out of 10!

To be honest, not a bad deal overall for Baylor.

You’ve obviously never made that drive. Best case scenario is 4.5 hours. High traffic, 6 hours.

 

[Adriacus]

Find it interesting that some folks prefer to ignore the NET rankings for seeding but insist on using them to compare “good” wins [for seeding]. Interesting mental maneuver.

 

[visitingcock]

Find it interesting that some folks prefer to ignore the NET rankings for seeding but insist on using them to compare “good” wins [for seeding]. Interesting mental maneuver.

I think the committee looks at NET to start with, but mentally adjusts with consideration of AP rankings. The Pure NET rankings can produce oddities like 13-6 Oregon being ranked 7.

But, yeah. You can mix and compare algorithms Massey, NET and even RPI but you can't mix Eyeball polls with them. You certainly cant mix SoS integer calculations with eyeball based ranking.

 

[Adriacus]

I think the committee looks at NET to start with, but mentally adjusts with consideration of AP rankings. The Pure NET rankings can produce oddities like 13-6 Oregon being ranked 7.

But, yeah. You can mix and compare algorithms Massey, NET and even RPI but you can't mix Eyeball polls with them. You certainly cant mix SoS integer calculations with eyeball based ranking.

Think you missed my point.

Some folks argue forcefully against using NET rankings for seeding but then insist on using NET rankings to determine which victories are “quality” wins [for seeding]. NET rankings are going to be “unusual” this year due to the limited volume of non-conference games, unbalanced schedules, teams shutting down, etc. This year proves the limitations of a computer based system. That said, comments on this board prove the limitation of the eyeball test.

To be honest, there is little difference among teams 1-8. That said, it would be very easy for the selection committee to create some really imbalanced quadrants [even more than the usual high amount of imbalance].

Not really worried about seeding position. Do think we may see 1-2 teams giftwrapped a trip to the Final Four while others are faced with much tougher 2nd weekend matches.