COVID Vaccine Thread, the Sequel | Page 34 | The Boneyard

COVID Vaccine Thread, the Sequel

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HuskyHawk

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I never said it was created in a lab. That's beyond a weird comment.

Even if SARS and MERS were more deadly, those who had it had plenty of time to interact and pass it on to others. Speed of death between catching it and dying is one leg affecting how broadly a virus is transmitted. It's not the only reason.

Supplement to my long comment. They make you sick faster as well. Onset of symptoms after infection is faster. Sick people stay home (fever, chills vs just a cough or sneeze like a cold). Very sick people go to the hospital. Also, not aerosol spread.

Covid-19, especially Delta, is often spread in the pre-symptomatic period. Delta’s rise is fuelled by rampant spread from people who feel fine (nature.com)

As a result, 74% of infections with Delta took place during the presymptomatic phase — a higher proportion than for previous variants. This high rate “helps explain how this variant has been able to outpace both the wild-type virus and other variants to become the dominant strain worldwide”, says Barnaby Young, an infectious-disease clinician at the National Centre for Infectious Diseases in Singapore.
 

Rico444

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Why would an anti-vaxxer use a headline of "Vaccination Offers Higher Protection than Previous COVID-19 Infection" as ammo?

I'm saying that the content of the article doesn't always line up with the headline. It feeds the whole "the media lies about everything" narrative and is used to discredit them.
 

CL82

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Supplement to my long comment. They make you sick faster as well. Onset of symptoms after infection is faster. Sick people stay home (fever, chills vs just a cough or sneeze like a cold). Very sick people go to the hospital. Also, not aerosol spread.

Covid-19, especially Delta, is often spread in the pre-symptomatic period. Delta’s rise is fuelled by rampant spread from people who feel fine (nature.com)
What is the mortality rate of the Delta variant versus the wild type or other variants?
 

CL82

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I'm saying that the content of the article doesn't always line up with the headline. It feeds the whole "the media lies about everything" narrative and is used to discredit them.
That is an interesting point. It reminds me of saying from a marketing professor at UConn (Hempel, maybe?) used at UConn regarding deceptive advertising. It was "Borrowed interest is very expensive" with the notion being that people react negatively to being deceived. If you gain interest with a false claim (or headline) the impact isn't merely that you are back to square one when it is discovered.
 
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I've found throughout this whole pandemic that headline writers either 1) really suck at writing headlines, or more cynically, 2) write the headlines to drive fear and therefore clicks. For example, an earlier post in this thread links to a story with the headline:

Vaccination Offers Higher Protection than Previous COVID-19 Infection​

But when you read the article, everyone in the study previously contracted Covid, even those that got the vaccine. The real question of "What is more effective: getting the vaccine, or getting natural immunity from previous infection?" is not answered in the article. The headline is misleading.

It's really frustrating to read misleading headlines like that, because anti-vaxxers use them as ammo in their disinformation campaign.

I've seen that one. The shame is that the overwhelming likelihood is that the statement is true. Particularly with mRNA vaccines, immunity from previous infection will likely be less effective against variants, unless the very specific portion of the spike protein that the vaccine imitates is modified in the virus variant.

Note -- I'm not the expert here, but I am married to one. She also taught a course at Yale that, in major part, covered the misrepresentation of scientific and medical research in media.
 

HuskyHawk

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What is the mortality rate of the Delta variant versus the wild type or other variants?

So far, seems no different.
 

CL82

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So far, seems no different.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) figures suggest that the Delta variant and its subtypes accounted for more than 90 percent of new U.S. COVID cases surveyed in the two weeks to July 31.

Daily trends in the number of COVID deaths show the death rate per 100,000 people in the U.S. is currently around 185 since the very start of the pandemic, the CDC said as of August 10, and about 0.92 per 100,000 over the previous seven days.

But this is not Delta-specific.
Newsweek article

The "data" I've seen suggests a lower death rate, but I'm not sure that's due to a difference in mortality per se. Keep in mind that 1) the "wild-type" virus took a huge chunk of the most vulnerable and 2) the original figures were in an unvaccinated population. So anyone who is exposed to the Delta variant is a) likely not to be at as high a risk (i.e., less than age 60 when mortality figures climb significantly), b) may be vaccinated, and/or c) may have natural immunity due to known or unknown prior exposure. I don't know if anyone has broken down the numbers quite that way but it seems logical.
 

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It usually takes about 10 years for a drug to be developed and approved for prescription. I wouldn't expect it to come anytime soon, if it comes at all (looking less likely to me). The Drug Development Process | FDA I don't think the issue is "finding the time".
It’s a good thing the coronavirus vaccine has been in research since 2003 then.
 

HuskyHawk

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It’s a good thing the coronavirus vaccine has been in research since 2003 then.

Are you talking about the mRNA platform? The vaccine is a bit more than a year old. Platform has been used for several things, including cancer drugs under clinical trials since 2011. But the platform is not the vaccine, in fact each company's is reviewed independently.
 
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Are you talking about the mRNA platform? The vaccine is a bit more than a year old. Platform has been used for several things, including cancer drugs under clinical trials since 2011. But the platform is not the vaccine, in fact each company's is reviewed independently.
I think the reference was that the vaccine is very closely related to one that had been in development for MERS for years because of how similar the viruses are. This American Life did a really interesting piece on it (starts at about 38 minutes in the link below), where they talk to one of the folks who worked on that MERS vaccine and said that within an hour of seeing the COVID-19 genetic sequencing, knew that the technology would work for COVID-19.

 

Dream Jobbed 2.0

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I think the reference was that the vaccine is very closely related to one that had been in development for MERS for years because of how similar the viruses are. This American Life did a really interesting piece on it (starts at about 38 minutes in the link below), where they talk to one of the folks who worked on that MERS vaccine and said that within an hour of seeing the COVID-19 genetic sequencing, knew that the technology would work for COVID-19.

Thank you
 
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Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) figures suggest that the Delta variant and its subtypes accounted for more than 90 percent of new U.S. COVID cases surveyed in the two weeks to July 31.

Daily trends in the number of COVID deaths show the death rate per 100,000 people in the U.S. is currently around 185 since the very start of the pandemic, the CDC said as of August 10, and about 0.92 per 100,000 over the previous seven days.

But this is not Delta-specific.
Newsweek article

The "data" I've seen suggests a lower death rate, but I'm not sure that's due to a difference in mortality per se. Keep in mind that 1) the "wild-type" virus took a huge chunk of the most vulnerable and 2) the original figures were in an unvaccinated population. So anyone who is exposed to the Delta variant is a) likely not to be at as high a risk (i.e., less than age 60 when mortality figures climb significantly), b) may be vaccinated, and/or c) may have natural immunity due to known or unknown prior exposure. I don't know if anyone has broken down the numbers quite that way but it seems logical.
Vaccination status should be a key element. I’m not sure we have enough data on deaths/mortality rates by vaccination status.
 

CL82

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Vaccination status should be a key element. I’m not sure we have enough data on deaths/mortality rates by vaccination status.
That would be a very useful metric, wouldn't it?
 
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That would be a very useful metric, wouldn't it?

They're gathering it. It's likely going to show that the mortality rate of Delta for unvaccinated folks is less than the overall mortality rate at the outset of the pandemic, but higher than it was overall at the beginning of this year. Mortality rate for vaccinated folks is going to be nearly nonexistent.
 

Chin Diesel

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Short version, SARS and MERs were way more deadly, so killed the host, which hurts transmission and virus survivability. The other key is that they were large droplet spread. We used those as our early basis for Covid-19, hence the early guidance on hand washing and 2 meters away etc. Also, masks are highly effective with large droplet spread. This is the article that really helped. Transmissibility and transmission of respiratory viruses | Nature Reviews Microbiology

A study recently found that SARS-Cov-2 appears in higher concentrations in smaller water droplets rather than larger ones (85% small, 15% large). Viral Load of SARS-CoV-2 in Respiratory Aerosols Emitted by COVID-19 Patients while Breathing, Talking, and Singing | Clinical Infectious Diseases | Oxford Academic (oup.com) The result being that while it certainly can be spread by droplets (somebody sneezes near you), that may not be the primary mode of transmission (although many older studies say it is). It's also why surfaces aren't significant (everyone now agrees). If this is correct, spread may be mostly by aerosols, which accumulate over time (for which cloth masks do less). It helps explain why people who work outside the house and live in smaller homes in dense areas have borne much of the pandemic. Air circulation, ventilation, filtration and of course, being outside, that does a lot. A study from Japan showed opening two windows once an hour dramatically reduced concentrations.

My suggestion would be to end all the expensive cleaning activity, invest that Covid relief money immediately into air quality improvement in schools and all public buildings, including mass transit. Aircraft are already fine, which is why spread there is minimal. Private businesses should focus on the same, and perhaps relief funds can be targeted to that end. Unlike all the money we've wasted, those changes would have lasting impact and would reduce flu cases as well.

So what part of the creation of COVID or any coronavirus determines the size
- droplet vs vapor??

Just curious as to why they are called corona viruses because the commonality of the crowns or spikes yet they are different sized.
 
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There's an anti-mask protest outside my school today. No one is working, even the admin. Literally the only people there are the constructionn workers renovating a wing. Imagine going through life this stupid.

Also district policy (I think state too) is now that you go 10 days without pay if you have to quarantine for the unvaxxed. 1 guy quit on principle already.

Bye Felicia!
 
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The rational discussion here over the last day or so is encouraging.
 

HuskyHawk

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So what part of the creation of COVID or any coronavirus determines the size
- droplet vs vapor??

Just curious as to why they are called corona viruses because the commonality of the crowns or spikes yet they are different sized.

I'm not sure the size of the virus is critical in terms of spread via large or small droplets. Perhaps it is. If you read the Nature article I posted, it makes clear that they know (and have largely been quite about it) that some influenza strains are also "airborne" (aerosol spread), although that is not how we think of them. I always understood what was noteworthy is that they mainly affect animals, with only 7 (now 8?) infecting humans. Coronaviruses in animals and humans | The BMJ For geek level way beyond me Coronaviruses: An Overview of Their Replication and Pathogenesis (nih.gov)
 
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There's an anti-mask protest outside my school today. No one is working, even the admin. Literally the only people there are the constructionn workers renovating a wing. Imagine going through life this stupid.

Also district policy (I think state too) is now that you go 10 days without pay if you have to quarantine for the unvaxxed. 1 guy quit on principle already.

Bye Felicia!
Oy vey.

The pendulum of returning back to school with covid is back to me being down about the prospects of how might the virus affect our school year.

No proof of this, but apparently five members of our staff (about 8%) haven’t gotten vaccinated and have all been encouraged personally by our head of school to do so.

The guy I mentioned earlier in the thread cited religious/medical reasons for not getting it, which makes me think nothing else than calling BS on his carpet-bombing technique.
 
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Oy vey.

The pendulum of returning back to school with covid is back to me being down about the prospects of how might the virus affect our school year.

No proof of this, but apparently five members of our staff (about 8%) haven’t gotten vaccinated and have all been encouraged personally by our head of school to do so.

The guy I mentioned earlier in the thread cited religious/medical reasons for not getting it, which makes me think nothing else than calling BS on his carpet-bombing technique.

This has to be a huge incentive to vax for reluctant teachers. I missed 30 work days with quarantine last year and just taught from home. This year if that happened I'd be out 3 paychecks throughout the year.

I'd think your school being private could be as strict as they want with that stuff too
 
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There's an anti-mask protest outside my school today. No one is working, even the admin. Literally the only people there are the constructionn workers renovating a wing. Imagine going through life this stupid.

Also district policy (I think state too) is now that you go 10 days without pay if you have to quarantine for the unvaxxed. 1 guy quit on principle already.

Bye Felicia!
This is in CT? Wow. I’m at a big district in NY. We’re still waiting to hear about expectations for the upcoming year in terms of teaching to students that are quarantined.

Not sure about any policies similar to the one you mentioned. The union here is very powerful, and I’m not sure which way they’d sway if the district imposed such a policy.
 
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There's an anti-mask protest outside my school today. No one is working, even the admin. Literally the only people there are the constructionn workers renovating a wing. Imagine going through life this stupid.

Also district policy (I think state too) is now that you go 10 days without pay if you have to quarantine for the unvaxxed. 1 guy quit on principle already.

Bye Felicia!

I don't teach in CT anymore, but I'm sure teachers (some) are throwing a fit over this. Such an absurd hill to die on, but there will be many graves next to his I'm sure. Haven't heard of this being a thing in MA yet, but it's only a matter of time.
 
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Just curious. teachers union will allow their teachers to sit at home unpaid??? Seems doubtful.
Good question.

My sister works in a public school system in CT and was able to teach from home all last year due to having iritis, which, to me, is a dubious excuse.

Her district will not allow her to teach from home this year, which she is luke-warm, at best, about those prospects. Personally, I'm not sympathetic to her qualms.
 
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