Coaching wins

[Sluconn Husky]

BC leads UNC late in game. Am anxiously awaiting your gloating meme.

That is one ugly loss for Carolina. They might not win another the rest of the year if that is any indication.

 

[triaddukefan]

Geno has 16 games max this year. Keep in mind that unc will likely get a wnit bid so long as they finish .500 (win 2 more games).

Boston College, @Syracuse, GaTech, @Louisville, @State, Duke.

Where do you see them getting two more wins from? Even if they won two. Im not so sure they would accept an WNIT bid. They have declined them in the past.

BC and either GT or 1st round of ACCT are possible wins.
With a team of almost all frosh and soph (1 jr & 1 sr), I'm guessing she'll want the extra practice time, and also to give them some postseason experience since they werent invited last year.

You have more faith in the tarheels than I do

BC leads UNC late in game. Am anxiously awaiting your gloating meme.

Id forgotten that this game was an early start. Now im ready for tonight's main event

 

[Vowelguy]

No dancing pandas? No confetti explosions?

 

[triaddukefan]

No dancing pandas? No confetti explosions?

Gotta wait til after the big game tonight.... any gloating now over the women losing to bottom dwelling BC would be cancelled out by a million by a UNC Men's victory over my beloved Blue Devils.

 

[triaddukefan]

No dancing pandas? No confetti explosions?

Is this more like it? All is now well along Tobacco Road

 

[MilfordHusky]

CViv's and Sylvia's win totals are increasing at a very slow rate this season.

UNC is 13-11 and 2-9 in conference.

Rutgers is 6-18 and 3-8 (including 0-11 on the road).

 

[Frenchy]

maybe they both should be seriously thinking about retirement!!!

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

maybe they both should be seriously thinking about retirement!!!

Well yes.

I think one of the issues is that both can point to circumstances that have produced this season. For North Carolina, it was the shake-up when so many players left. For Rutgers, whose recruiting has declined over recent years, it was the loss of 3 WNBA level players, illness of the remaining star, as well as injuries. Both teams should be better next year, even with no recruits at Rutgers (full roster, transfers becoming eligible and only Sr. this year a walk on).

I think both coaches would like the option of getting 1000 wins before they retire. Whether or not their schools give them that option will be seen. Rumor at Rutgers is that, in spite of fan dissatisfaction (I'm at worst of a mixed opinion) CVS will be back. North Carolina I have no idea.

 

[Vowelguy]

Well yes.

I think one of the issues is that both can point to circumstances that have produced this season. For North Carolina, it was the shake-up when so many players left. For Rutgers, whose recruiting has declined over recent years, it was the loss of 3 WNBA level players, illness of the remaining star, as well as injuries. Both teams should be better next year, even with no recruits at Rutgers (full roster, transfers becoming eligible and only Sr. this year a walk on).

I think both coaches would like the option of getting 1000 wins before they retire. Whether or not their schools give them that option will be seen. Rumor at Rutgers is that, in spite of fan dissatisfaction (I'm at worst of a mixed opinion) CVS will be back. North Carolina I have no idea.

Hatchell will get 1000 next year. CVS questionable.

 

[Plebe]

BC and either GT or 1st round of ACCT are possible wins.
With a team of almost all frosh and soph (1 jr & 1 sr), I'm guessing she'll want the extra practice time, and also to give them some postseason experience since they werent invited last year.

If UNC was capable of a red-hot shooting game at home against hated rival NC State, are they not capable of the same against Duke in the regular-season finale? (Triad?)

And as for UNC's prospects of finishing .500, they are currently 13-11. If they go 1-4 in the last 5 regular-season games, that puts them at 14-15. That would mean they'd still need to win 2 games in the ACC tournament to be postseason-eligible. Do I have this right?

 

[triaddukefan]

If UNC was capable of a red-hot shooting game at home against hated rival NC State, are they not capable of the same against Duke in the regular-season finale? (Triad?)

And as for UNC's prospects of finishing .500, they are currently 13-11. If they go 1-4 in the last 5 regular-season games, that puts them at 14-15. That would mean they'd still need to win 2 games in the ACC tournament to be postseason-eligible. Do I have this right?

Duke plays better defense than NC State. They (UNC) aint winning the regular season finale.... no how... no way

 

[Vowelguy]

As of the morning of 2/11:

1. Summitt . 1098
2. Tara .. .. 980 + 21 =1001 (nxt: 2/12 Uth,.2/16 @Cal, 2/19 Cal , 2/24 @OSU, 2/25 @Or)
3. Hatchell . 975 + 13 = 988 (nxt: 2/12 @Sy, 2/16 GaT ,.2/19 @Lou, 2/23 @NCS, 2/26 Duke)
4. Geno .. .. 955 + 23 = 978 (nxt: 2/11 SMU,.2/13 SCar, 2/18 @Tul, 2/22 Tmpl, 2/25 Memp)
5. Stringer . 971 + 06 = 977 (nxt: 2/11 @MN,.2/15 Pur ,.2/18 @WI , 2/23 @NW , 2/26 OhSt)
6. Stevens .. 957 + 20 = 977 (nxt: 2/11 .. ,.2/15 .. ., 2/18 .. ., 2/21, .. . 2/24-3/5 cnf_T)
7. Conradt .. 900

Earliest these could happen:

• TaraV ties PHS -- 2019-20 season
• Hatchell @1000 -- Postseason (My guess: not this year)
• GA ties Htchll -- NCAA Trnmt (My guess: NCAA)

 

[triaddukefan]

Hatchell might not get to 989 this year

 

[JavaMan]

Hatchell might not get to 989 this year

Now, now.

Didn't your mother ever tell you, "Never say something on another team's board that you wouldn't say on your own"?

​

 

[Vowelguy]

Hatchell might not get to 989 this year

True.
But with the non conference sked that UNC plays, she will easily get to 1000 by late December.

 

[Vowelguy]

CVS loses again, Stevens moves into sole possession of 5th place.

As of the morning of 2/12:

1. Summitt . 1098
2. Tara .. .. 980 + 21 =1001 (nxt: 2/12 Uth,.2/16 @Cal, 2/19 Cal , 2/24 @OSU, 2/25 @Or)
3. Hatchell . 975 + 13 = 988 (nxt: 2/12 @Sy, 2/16 GaT ,.2/19 @Lou, 2/23 @NCS, 2/26 Duke)
4. Geno .. .. 955 + 24 = 979 (nxt: .. .. ..,.2/13 SCar, 2/18 @Tul, 2/22 Tmpl, 2/25 Memp)
5. Stevens .. 957 + 21 = 978 (nxt: .. .. ..,.2/15 .. ., 2/18 .. ., 2/21, .. . 2/24-3/5 cnf_T)
6. Stringer . 971 + 06 = 977 (nxt: .. .. ..,.2/15 Pur ,.2/18 @WI , 2/23 @NW , 2/26 OhSt)
7. Conradt .. 900

Earliest these could happen:

• GA ties Htchll -- NCAA Trnmt (My guess: NCAAs)
• GA wins 1000th -- Dec 2017 (My guess: Dec 2017)
• Hatchell @1000 -- Postseason (My guess: Dec 2017)
• Stevens w 1000 -- Dec 2017 (My guess: Jan 2018)
• TaraV ties PHS -- 2019-20 season

 

[Plebe]

CVS loses again, Stevens moves into sole possession of 5th place.

As of the morning of 2/12:

1. Summitt . 1098
2. Tara .. .. 980 + 21 =1001 (nxt: 2/12 Uth,.2/16 @Cal, 2/19 Cal , 2/24 @OSU, 2/25 @Or)
3. Hatchell . 975 + 13 = 988 (nxt: 2/12 @Sy, 2/16 GaT ,.2/19 @Lou, 2/23 @NCS, 2/26 Duke)
4. Geno .. .. 955 + 24 = 979 (nxt: .. .. ..,.2/13 SCar, 2/18 @Tul, 2/22 Tmpl, 2/25 Memp)
5. Stevens .. 957 + 21 = 978 (nxt: .. .. ..,.2/15 .. ., 2/18 .. ., 2/21, .. . 2/24-3/5 cnf_T)
6. Stringer . 971 + 06 = 977 (nxt: .. .. ..,.2/15 Pur ,.2/18 @WI , 2/23 @NW , 2/26 OhSt)
7. Conradt .. 900

Earliest these could happen:

• GA ties Htchll -- NCAA Trnmt (My guess: NCAAs)
• GA wins 1000th -- Dec 2017 (My guess: Dec 2017)
• Hatchell @1000 -- Postseason (My guess: Dec 2017)
• Stevens w 1000 -- Dec 2017 (My guess: Jan 2018)
• TaraV ties PHS -- 2019-20 season

I've only watched portions of the last couple UConn games, so I'm wondering: Did the commentators make any mention of Geno tying and passing Stringer?

 

[Suebird10fan]

As I see it, the odds of Geno passing Pat by April of 2020 are really good. Tara may get there around the same time but I think he's got the edge. Here's how I break it down.

For the Huskies: let's be conservative and say 37 wins this year--either losing to SC tomorrow and then winning championship, or maintaining the streak up to the championship game but losing. For the next two years the roster is absolutely loaded as has been well documented. I think 38 wins each year is conservative, especially if they go back to scheduling 30 regular season games each year. In 2019-20, I fully expect multiple losses, but we'll have Megan Walker as a junior (who by all accounts could challenge for NPOY at that point), Crystal Dangerfield as a senior, Collier2 as a sophomore, plus Gordon, Coombs, AEH, Bent, Irwin, Camara if she sticks around and sophomores and freshmen to be named later. Hard to imagine there will be more than 2 or 3 other teams with that kind of talent. Even assuming a super tough schedule like this year, if UConn plays eight games against top 10 teams, let's say they lose 3, plus one other upset, that's four losses. So I'll put them down for 33 wins. That's 855+37+38+38+33=1,101.

For Tara, I see Stanford winning around 30 this year. That's based on 1 more regular season loss (that's what Massey is projecting), which gives them 25 regular season losses. Then (being slightly generous here) assume they make it to PAC 10 championship and to the Sweet 16, and a 50/50 of winning in each (but assume that they do NOT make it to F4). That would be five postseason wins for a total of 30. For the next three years I see Tara winning 28 to 30 a year. Assuming 30 this year, will have averaged 29 a year in the three years after and the three years before the O sisters. I don't see another player of Nneka or Chiney's caliber coming along for Stanford any time soon. That would put Tara at 880+30+3*(28-30)= 1,094 to 1,100.

My fervent wish? That UConn and Stanford meet in the NCAA tournament in 2020 with each coach at 1,098. And, of course, that Geno wins!

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

For the Huskies: I think 38 wins each year is conservative, especially if they go back to scheduling 30 regular season games each year.

I'm not sure I consider the 38 conservative - but the 30 regular season games is not atypical. What it requires is participation in a tourney where you play 3 games but they only count as 2 (or 4 if you make the finals of the pre-season WNIT).

I would expect UConn to play 30 regular season games most years. Even if cost becomes a factor (dang AAC) there has been a tendency to have more of these tourneys in the USA - I think one in SC, the rather big one in Florida and I think one of the tourneys normally held outside the mainland was relocated last year.

 

[Suebird10fan]

I'm not sure I consider the 38 conservative - but the 30 regular season games is not atypical. What it requires is participation in a tourney where you play 3 games but they only count as 2 (or 4 if you make the finals of the pre-season WNIT).

I would expect UConn to play 30 regular season games most years. Even if cost becomes a factor (dang AAC) there has been a tendency to have more of these tourneys in the USA - I think one in SC, the rather big one in Florida and I think one of the tourneys normally held outside the mainland was relocated last year.

I probably should have said "may be conservative" because I don't know how to handicap the odds of 30 regular season games. (BTW I could swear I've seen 30, even 31 game regular seasons w/o being in a tournament but I defer to others on this.)

I will say this unequivocally though. IF Uconn plays 30 regular season games each of the next two years, then 76 wins (IMO) IS conservative. JMO, but I think UConn has a > 50% chance of going unbeaten next year. Further (and here's where many may disagree) I think even if Z leaves after 1 year, they have a 50% chance (maybe more) of going undefeated in 2018-19. NC, KLS and MW will, I believe, be three out of the five best players in the country that year. Add in Crystal Dangerfield, Camara, Collier2, AEH, Coombs, and Gordon, and the team will be absolutely loaded, even taking account of injuries, players who don't pan out, etc. And on top of the talent, I fully expect the senior leadership of NC and KLS to ensure the team reaches its potential.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

I probably should have said "may be conservative" because I don't know how to handicap the odds of 30 regular season games. (BTW I could swear I've seen 30, even 31 game regular seasons w/o being in a tournament but I defer to others on this.)

Its complicated. You do get an extra extra game if you play in the Hawai'i tourney, I believe. And it isn't only the exotic tourneys that count - if you can set up (as UConn used to) a 3 game type deal, it will only count as 2. The problem is you can't play in it multiple years in a row.

If you are curious enough, since I have a spreadsheet of all the P5 schedules, I can share who is playing more than the normal 29 games and why I think it was ok.

 

[chuck.r]

If VanDerveer can return her program to perennial 30+ win seasons, its going to make the possibility of catching her before she ties Summitt's record very slim for Auriemma. Not impossible, of course, as Geno has had a run of recent success that, to borrow Bilas' words, has been "ridiculous". The last 3 seasons of 38+ wins each, and a 10-year average of almost 37 wins (36.6). One big advantage on Auriemma's side is the relatively weak competition during conference season, virtually guaranteeing 19 wins a year (16 reg. season/3 conf. trnmt.). Stanford by contrast is currently in the most competitive conference in the P5, and is no longer the dominant program, being in a competitive draw each year with 3-4 conference mates.

Whether or not Tara reaches 1098 first, I believe Auriemma will have passed her for all-time wins by the conclusion of the 2019-20 season.

 

[Vowelguy]

As of the morning of 2/13:

1. Summitt . 1098
2. Tara .. .. 980 + 22 =1002 (nxt: 2/16 @Cal, 2/19 Cal , 2/24 @OSU, 2/25 @Or , cnf_T)
3. Hatchell . 975 + 13 = 988 (nxt: 2/16 GaT ,.2/19 @Lou, 2/23 @NCS, 2/26 Duke, cnf_T)
4. Geno .. .. 955 + 24 = 979 (nxt: 2/13 SCar, 2/18 @Tul, 2/22 Tmpl, 2/25 Memp, 2/29 @USF)
5. Stevens .. 957 + 21 = 978 (nxt: 2/15 .. ., 2/18 .. ., 2/21, .. . 2/24-3/5 cnf_T)
6. Stringer . 971 + 06 = 977 (nxt: 2/15 Pur ,.2/18 @WI , 2/23 @NW , 2/26 OhSt, cnf_T)
7. Conradt .. 900

Earliest these could happen:

• GA ties Htchll -- NCAA Trnmt (My guess: NCAAs)
• GA wins 1000th -- Dec 2017 (My guess: Dec 2017)
• Hatchell @1000 -- Postseason (My guess: Dec 2017)
• Stevens @ 1000 -- Dec 2017 (My guess: Jan 2018)
• Stringer @1000 -- Dec 2017 (My guess: 2018-9 season)
• TaraV ties PHS -- 2019-20 season

 

[triaddukefan]

Hatchell might not get to 989 this year

Darn Bugs couldnt put the nail in the coffin tonight

 

[Plebe]

Darn Bugs couldnt put the nail in the coffin tonight

Cherry with the game-winning 3-pointer with 0:02 remaining. That was right after the GaTech player missed 1 of 2 free throws. Ouch. GaTech has killed its tournament chances with a whole slew of nail-biter and overtime losses.

UNC is now 2 games over .500, but their last 3 games are against Louisville, NC State and Duke. Unless they can win one of those, Sylvia will need two wins in the ACC tournament to finish at .500 and be eligible for the WNIT. But if they can pull a shocker in one of those 3 games, Sylvia is guaranteed a .500 finish. What suspense!