Bracketology

[HuskyNan]

And how odd that the Vegas betting line for this game had OSU winning by 2.5 points. Maybe the bookies are better judges than the sports writers.

Bookies don’t analyze games; they analyze bettors. Odds are set so that half of the bettors bet on each team and that’s why the odds move. If bettors are betting on one team over the other, the bookies move the odds to make the other team a more attractive bet

 

[visitingcock]

Not the bookies, they could care less so long as the books are balanced. Credit the gamblers.

Yup. I am constantly amazed by the number of people who don’t have even a rudimentary understanding of how it works.

 

[darkstar1]

Bookies don’t analyze games; they analyze bettors. Odds are set so that half of the bettors bet on each team and that’s why the odds move. If bettors are betting on one team over the other, the bookies move the odds to make the other team a more attractive bet

So what you are really saying is that the betting public has a better idea than the folks that rank the teams, of the better team. Examples: Ohio State favored over Tennessee in wcbb and Georgia over Tennessee in football, although lower ranked.

 

[LwrcasefaN]

Yup. I am constantly amazed by the number of people who don’t have even a rudimentary understanding of how it works.

I don't gamble so count me amongst the clueless. Never even purchased a scratchoff. lol

 

[Bone Dog]

I don't gamble so count me amongst the clueless. Never even purchased a scratchoff. lol

I at least am in possession of a lottery ticket worth $1.9b… potentially. It’s my retirement plan.

And now I await explanations of how the lottery works.

 

[visitingcock]

I don't gamble so count me amongst the clueless. Never even purchased a scratchoff. lol

as @Skeets and @HuskyNan pointed out, bookies are not experts who analyze teams and choose who they think is gonna win a game - in any sport - even ones they might follow like NFL. They make book on hundreds of different sports some of which they no absolutely nothing about. There is no team of experts about anything except money.

The point spread is initaiily set at a number that they believe will encourage people on both sides to bet the max. Their goal is to get as much money bet on the games as possible - not to pick a winner. They get 10% of the top of all money that is bet. However, they don't want all the dollars bet on either side. If the betting is one sided and that team wins, the bookie has to go in his pocket to pay off the winners. Ideally, both teams in the competition have the same amount of money backing them. That way all the money from the losers will be used to pay the winners and the bookie merely takes his 10% .

When they see most money being bet heavily on one side, they adjust the spread to encourage betting on the other side. They are not changing their opinion, the are merely attempting to cover the risk of loss. As skeets indicated, it is the betting public that decides the spread. "Credit the gamblers" - not Vegas.

 

[Stymie]

So, let me get this straight.
Tennessee loses.
Drops down.
UCONN buries Northeastern tomorrow.
Then tops Texas next game.
UCONN vaults to #4 behind SC, Stanford and Iowa?
Granted, Texas is no gimme.
But so much for the preseason projected demise of UCONN Woman’s Basketball..

 

[Bone Dog]

So, let me get this straight.
Tennessee loses.
Drops down.
UCONN buries Northeastern tomorrow.
Then tops Texas next game.
UCONN vaults to #4 behind SC, Stanford and Iowa?
Granted, Texas is no gimme.
But so much for the preseason projected demise of UCONN Woman’s Basketball..

Assuming Iowa doesn't get dinged in the meantime

 

[BRS24]

Anyone happen to capture the 11/8 bracketology? I should have archived the page or screen shotted it while away.

 

[BRS24]

He's back. TN, TX, OK, AZ, L'ville drop out of top 16. UCLA and Utah in.
(sorry for the gap on 11/8 as I didn't grab a screenshot while out of country)

 

[BRS24]

Ooh. Discovered some hoop fans archived the 11/8 page on wayback machine!

 

[Plebe]

He's back. TN, TX, OK, AZ, L'ville drop out of top 16. UCLA and Utah in.
(sorry for the gap on 11/8 as I didn't grab a screenshot while out of country)
View attachment 80978

Tennessee and Texas were dropped from his bracket entirely due to having a sub-.500 record.

 

[DEpup]

Ooh. Discovered some hoop fans archived the 11/8 page on wayback machine!
View attachment 80980

Looking for some help. So does this mean UConn is overall 3 seed and would play Stanford in final 4?

 

[Viet Vet]

Looking for some help. So does this mean UConn is overall 3 seed and would play Stanford in final 4?

A wee bit early for bracketology.

 

[visitingcock]

A wee bit early for bracketology.

Tell Charlie

 

[Huskee11]

Stanford has out of conference home games in December against Gonzaga, Tennessee and Creighton. I will be interested in seeing whether Creighton can hang with them. Difficult, since Creighton is giving up so much height, but let`s see what happens. Also a good measuring stick since UConn plays Creighton about a week later (at Creighton).

Stanford has no difficult out of conference opponents this season where Stanford is on the road. SC game was at Stanford.

One significant story line this season is how will solid but under the radar Division One programs with veteran fourth and fifth (Covid) year players who have played together fare against higher profile Division One programs that have dipped heavily into the portal and may have chemistry issues.

 

[Bone Dog]

Are there really 9 ACC teams that belong in the tournament at this point?

 

[Plebe]

Are there really 9 ACC teams that belong in the tournament at this point?

This is why there should be a law against "bracketology" before mid-January.

Almost no one "belongs" in the tournament in (checks calendar) November. What they're passing off as "bracketology" is still mostly a preseason projection since only a handful of teams have even played meaningful games.

 

[Monte]

The 'Sport Experts" have to do something, or they won't have a job.....so, they PREDICT until the end of the season.

 

[MSGRET]

If there are only 4 teams projected from the Big East why does 2 of them have to be in one bracket. Both UConn and Creighton are in the same Greenville bracket, since two different brackets are going to play in Greenville shouldn't Creighton be in the same bracket as South Carolina? That way you have 4 teams in 4 different brackets.

 

[Bone Dog]

This is why there should be a law against "bracketology" before mid-January.

Almost no one "belongs" in the tournament in (checks calendar) November. What they're passing off as "bracketology" is still mostly a preseason projection since only a handful of teams have even played meaningful games.

Sure, prediction = bad. But even granting this, is the thinking somehow, “Let’s expand the field to 68 so we can shoehorn even more Power 5 teams in”? And on top of this ”Hey, let’s give the lion’s share to the ACC of all conferences.” This is supposed to be the greatest of the greatest conferences? Seriously? In November, when only our imagination constricts us, this is the best we can imagine?

I’d have thought someone at ESPN would have pointed out this absurd result to Charlie and suggested he might want to rethink his operating assumptions.

 

[visitingcock]

If there are only 4 teams projected from the Big East why does 2 of them have to be in one bracket. Both UConn and Creighton are in the same Greenville bracket, since two different brackets are going to play in Greenville shouldn't Creighton be in the same bracket as South Carolina? That way you have 4 teams in 4 different brackets.

I pronounce you guilty - of logical thought.

 

[Phil]

It's my guess that Charlie knows the rules but doesn't think it's worth the effort to try to enforce them at this early date. I treat the early bracket held these as his general view of what the committee thinks about the relative seed lines, but I bet there is not a lot of emphasis on keeping traveling at a minimum, making sure matchups don't involve means that if Matt tournament multiple times recently, and other subtle written and unwritten rules but are important in March but not so important today.

 

[Bald Husky]

Sure, prediction = bad. But even granting this, is the thinking somehow, “Let’s expand the field to 68 so we can shoehorn even more Power 5 teams in”? And on top of this ”Hey, let’s give the lion’s share to the ACC of all conferences.” This is supposed to be the greatest of the greatest conferences? Seriously? In November, when only our imagination constricts us, this is the best we can imagine?

I’d have thought someone at ESPN would have pointed out this absurd result to Charlie and suggested he might want to rethink his operating assumptions.

ESPN owns the rights to the ACC and the SEC, so I'm positive they love the fact that so many teams from these two conferences are listed, whether they deserve to or not.

 

[Plebe]

Sure, prediction = bad. But even granting this, is the thinking somehow, “Let’s expand the field to 68 so we can shoehorn even more Power 5 teams in”? And on top of this ”Hey, let’s give the lion’s share to the ACC of all conferences.” This is supposed to be the greatest of the greatest conferences? Seriously? In November, when only our imagination constricts us, this is the best we can imagine?

"Which conference should get the most bids" is not a consideration at any time of the selection process. Teams are evaluated on an individual basis. Conference totals are not predetermined.