Bracketology update 2/21

[Plebe]

Committee drops important clues in final reveal

Charlie's main talking points:

• "Maryland has no chance at a No. 1 seed."
• "Recent struggles hurt three teams," i.e. Florida State, Texas A&M, and Auburn.
  
• "Baylor needed Monday's comeback" to remain a #1 seed.

Bracketology with Charlie Creme

 

[Plebe]

Additional observations in the latest projection:

• Tulane jumps from "last four out" in last week's bracket to a #9 seed in this bracket, partly on the strength off its strong performance vs. UConn and partly because other bubble teams have faltered.
• Temple, fresh off its win over USF, rises to a #7 seed.
• USF, after losses to UCF and Temple, falls to a #9 seed.
• George Washington sneaks into this bracket as one of "last four in."

It would be amazing for Jen Rizzotti to get an at-large bid, of course, but to be honest I'm not sure why Charlie considers their resume stronger than those behind them. GW's RPI is certainly respectable (top 50), but they have no top-50 wins and no wins over at-large-caliber teams. I will say, though, that the bubble has grown especially soft in the past couple weeks.

 

[CBear01]

Committee drops important clues in final reveal

Charlie's main talking points:

• "Maryland has no chance at a No. 1 seed."
• "Recent struggles hurt three teams," i.e. Florida State, Texas A&M, and Auburn.
  
• "Baylor needed Monday's comeback" to remain a #1 seed.

Bracketology with Charlie Creme

Tennessee in Bridgeport? ?? (Maybe)

Please, Mr. Creme, do not toy with us

 

[RockyMTblue2]

You've got to wonder why Brenda chose the OOC schedule she did (wonder what next year's looks like?). Bet she rues the day now, huh? A caution for everyone in the top tier. Of course, were they all to turn away from the early season marshmallow games the losers will be the budgets of the mallows.

 

[ndmb]

You've got to wonder why Brenda chose the OOC schedule she did (wonder what next year's looks like?). Bet she rues the day now, huh? A caution for everyone in the top tier. Of course, were they all to turn away from the early season marshmallow games the losers will be the budgets of the mallows.

The selection committee has a long history of rewarding teams for scheduling soft OOC opponents (I'm thinking about the several OSU teams of yore all of whom underperformed). This is the first year I've seen them really punish a team for it.

 

[Plebe]

You've got to wonder why Brenda chose the OOC schedule she did (wonder what next year's looks like?). Bet she rues the day now, huh? A caution for everyone in the top tier. Of course, were they all to turn away from the early season marshmallow games the losers will be the budgets of the mallows.

http://hwcdn.libsyn.com/p/1/5/1/151...87710490&hwt=db3c1b67401d830661cbbf93a237194c

Start at the 12:40 mark to hear Brenda's explanation. In sum, she says: (a) she had six freshmen she wanted to bring along; (b) scheduling is done a year out a couple teams on their schedule (ASU, Duquesne) are down from last year; (c) their focus is on peaking for March.

 

[Dillon77]

Additional observations in the latest projection:

• Tulane jumps from "last four out" in last week's bracket to a #9 seed in this bracket, partly on the strength off its strong performance vs. UConn and partly because other bubble teams have faltered.
• Temple, fresh off its win over USF, rises to a #7 seed.
• USF, after losses to UCF and Temple, falls to a #9 seed.
• George Washington sneaks into this bracket as one of "last four in."

It would be amazing for Jen Rizzotti to get an at-large bid, of course, but to be honest I'm not sure why Charlie considers their resume stronger than those behind them. GW's RPI is certainly respectable (top 50), but they have no top-50 wins and no wins over at-large-caliber teams. I will say, though, that the bubble has grown especially soft in the past couple weeks.

Maybe past performance? GW, under former coach Jonathan Tsipis (now HC at Wisconsin), recruiting coordinator Megan Duffy (now guard coach at Michigan) assembled a pretty strong few classes a few years back, led by Center Jonquel Jones, now in the WNBA. However, the next two scorers are back -- seniors Caira Washington and Hannah Schaible -- and augmented by grad transfer Lexi Martins (from Lehigh). They've got solid playoff experience, so the bench was not empty when Coach Rizzotti and Coach Sullivan came here. They've done a good job, shifting from Jones as the lynch-pin to a more guard-forward type of attack.

Washington is very crafty and Schaible is Jen's kind of player -- resilient, tough. Reminds me a bit of Brittany Mallory, ND's guard from a few years back.

Hope GW keeps trending up and they make the tourney. Will be interesting to see who GW brings into the fold the next few years.

 

[UcMiami]

http://hwcdn.libsyn.com/p/1/5/1/151...87710490&hwt=db3c1b67401d830661cbbf93a237194c

Start at the 12:40 mark to hear Brenda's explanation. In sum, she says: (a) she had six freshmen she wanted to bring along; (b) scheduling is done a year out a couple teams on their schedule (ASU, Duquesne) are down from last year; (c) their focus is on peaking for March.

The reality is you have to beat good teams in the regionals to get to the FF. The first weekend playing on your home court should be pretty routine so while we obsess about the seedings of the tournament, you are either playing well or you are going home the second weekend and where you play and who you play isn't going to matter if your goal is an NC. If your ambition is a FF berth than maybe it matters a little.

Maryland has never been in doubt for hosting the first weekend, and after that ...

 

[ctfjr]

Tennessee in Bridgeport? ?? (Maybe)

Please, Mr. Creme, do not toy with us

One could only hope

 

[Plebe]

The reality is you have to beat good teams in the regionals to get to the FF. The first weekend playing on your home court should be pretty routine so while we obsess about the seedings of the tournament, you are either playing well or you are going home the second weekend and where you play and who you play isn't going to matter if your goal is an NC. If your ambition is a FF berth than maybe it matters a little.

Key word: "should"; yet it proved anything but routine for Maryland last year

 

[Wbbfan1]

Baloney: Maryland is known to have one of the Weakest OOC Schedules of the Traditional Power Teams. I did an analysis on Brenda's OOC Since she was hired and its amazing how few Top 25 OOC Teams she plays on an annual basis. I will give her credit for adding UConn to the schedule the last couple of years, but that's about the only elite team she plays. While prior to last nights loss, the Eye Test says Maryland should have been a #1 Seed, I was glad the committee was downgrading them because of their schedule. Despite their weak schedule, they are a dangerous team that will be in UConn's bracket. Can't have an off shooting night playing them.

http://hwcdn.libsyn.com/p/1/5/1/151...87710490&hwt=db3c1b67401d830661cbbf93a237194c

Start at the 12:40 mark to hear Brenda's explanation. In sum, she says: (a) she had six freshmen she wanted to bring along; (b) scheduling is done a year out a couple teams on their schedule (ASU, Duquesne) are down from last year; (c) their focus is on peaking for March.

 

[Wbbfan1]

Wish Charlie had the 2,3,4 Teams in the Stockton Region in the Bridgeport Region.

 

[Ozimoto]

You've got to wonder why Brenda chose the OOC schedule she did (wonder what next year's looks like?). Bet she rues the day now, huh? A caution for everyone in the top tier. Of course, were they all to turn away from the early season marshmallow games the losers will be the budgets of the mallows.

I'm not sure she does. I think she set her schedule the way she did to ease her freshmen class into college basketball. In a sense, she wrote off this year to ensure these new kids weren't shell shocked by being thrown into the lions den and she may have been surprised by how well and how quickly they have developed. Now she isn't going to say that publicly for any number of good reasons, but I think that she expects that next season is when her team really makes a move to get into the upper echelon of WCBB. Didn't see Plebe's post before I wrote this, so never mind....

 

[Vowelguy]

One could only hope

Not sure why everyone is so excited to possibly face Tenn this year. Yes, at full strength UConn would win comfortably, but as we saw last week this team becomes vulnerable if even one of the starters is out.

 

[Vowelguy]

Committee drops important clues in final reveal

Charlie's main talking points:

• "Maryland has no chance at a No. 1 seed."
• "Recent struggles hurt three teams," i.e. Florida State, Texas A&M, and Auburn.
  
• "Baylor needed Monday's comeback" to remain a #1 seed.

Bracketology with Charlie Creme

One of the seeding rules is that 2 teams from the same conference can't be in the top 4 of a region (unless there are 5 or more teams in the top 16). His bracket has Oregon St at #2 & UCLA at #4 in OKC.
Could probably swap Kentucky & UCLA, though that makes UConn's bracket tougher as the Bruins would likely be the top 4 seed and the Cats would be the weakest 4.

 

[CBear01]

Not sure why everyone is so excited to possibly face Tenn this year. Yes, at full strength UConn would win comfortably, but as we saw last week this team becomes vulnerable if even one of the starters is out.

I don't think it's so much excitement, not for me anyway. The possibility to finally play a team that we have a history with and we haven't played in years can be something to watch come tourney time.

I will go ahead and predict that should Tennessee and Connecticut meet in the regionals in Bridgeport (would be the game to get to final 4) it will be not only the most watched game of the tournament but I think it just might be the most watched game in quite some years. I think a lot of fans will want to witness the blue vs orange, ESPN will have a field day

 

[Plebe]

One of the seeding rules is that 2 teams from the same conference can't be in the top 4 of a region (unless there are 5 or more teams in the top 16). His bracket has Oregon St at #2 & UCLA at #4 in OKC.
Could probably swap Kentucky & UCLA, though that makes UConn's bracket tougher as the Bruins would likely be the top 4 seed and the Cats would be the weakest 4.

Beyond the #1 and maybe the #2 seeds, predicting which region each team will end up in is virtually impossible because as soon as you get one ranking spot wrong on the S-curve — or as soon as you make one wrong guess on how the committee will modify the S-curve to meet bracketing principles, such as separating top-4 seeds from the same conference — then every other decision after that gets messed up by domino effect.

 

[tomcat]

Not sure why everyone is so excited to possibly face Tenn this year. Yes, at full strength UConn would win comfortably, but as we saw last week this team becomes vulnerable if even one of the starters is out.

I still very much like UConn's chances against TN, injuries or not, and if the bracket came true the way Creme has organized it (not that it will, but if it did), TN would have a decent chance of winning its way to a showdown with UConn.

 

[EricLA]

Not sure why everyone is so excited to possibly face Tenn this year. Yes, at full strength UConn would win comfortably, but as we saw last week this team becomes vulnerable if even one of the starters is out.

Mainly because Tennessee is dreadful and beating the snot out of them would be a joy. They play zero offense, and their defense breaks down often enough that I believe UCONN could score on them with ease. Of course, they'd need to get past Maryland first.

 

[Sonny44]

http://hwcdn.libsyn.com/p/1/5/1/151...87710490&hwt=db3c1b67401d830661cbbf93a237194c

Start at the 12:40 mark to hear Brenda's explanation. In sum, she says: (a) she had six freshmen she wanted to bring along; (b) scheduling is done a year out a couple teams on their schedule (ASU, Duquesne) are down from last year; (c) their focus is on peaking for March.

What a crock.

 

[ZachCT12]

Id love to see Jankoska and Michigan St make a run in Bridgeport.

 

[toadfoot]

I can't understand why Oregon St. would be a #2 seed. Makes no sense at all.

 

[chuck.r]

I can't understand why Oregon St. would be a #2 seed. Makes no sense at all.

Then your argument is with the Committee, who has them seeded #8 - the last 2-seed - in their latest Reveal. Although currently tied with Stanford atop the PAC12, they have the tie-breaker at present, having beaten Stanford in Maples earlier this year. Things will be clearer after Friday's rematch in Corvaillis.

 

[toadfoot]

Then your argument is with the Committee, who has them seeded #8 - the last 2-seed - in their latest Reveal. Although currently tied with Stanford atop the PAC12, they have the tie-breaker at present, having beaten Stanford in Maples earlier this year. Things will be clearer after Friday's rematch in Corvaillis.

I agree that it's the fault of the committee, but looking at their schedule I just don't understand what the committee is seeing. Loss to Marquette and a complete thrashing by USC, plus several close games against really mediocre teams... Oregon twice, by 7 & 3, UNLV by 3, Colorado by 5. Guess we'll see at tournament time, but I'd much rather have Oregon St. as #2 in UConn's bracket than Maryland.

 

[Plebe]

I can't understand why Oregon St. would be a #2 seed. Makes no sense at all.

Who would make more sense?