Big East Prediction Thread - January 15 edition | The Boneyard

Big East Prediction Thread - January 15 edition

nelsonmuntz

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Midseason-ish update.

The Big East is the #3 conference in NET.




1) Villanova - This does not feel like a Final Four or even Final 8 team to me, but they just keep winning. They have already beat Xavier (x2) and won at Seton Hall, but other than Creighton, have not blown anyone out. The first Xavier win was a 3 point game with under 4 minutes left.

gap

2) Xavier - They look good, but haven't played much of their schedule yet. Both conference losses are to Villanova.
3) UConn - I think UConn is very talented, and may be the most talented team in the league 1 to 8, but as a team, UConn is what its record says it is. Too many bad decisions and wasted possessions, too many defensive breakdowns, all just enough to lose a game here and there. UConn has to win more close games against good teams, and stop playing with fire against teams like St. Johns if UConn wants to finish higher than 4th in the league and get to the Top 15 nationally.
4) Providence - I am still not sold on this team as a Top 20 program. PC is well coached, and plays hard and smart, which makes them a tough game for good teams and a team that is very unlikely to be upset. I don't expect them to lose or even play it close with the bottom 4 teams in the conference, but I don't think they have the talent to finish ahead of Nova, Xavier, UConn or SHU.
5) Marquette - Shaka Smart is probably going to be BE Coach of the Year. I am glad UConn already went to Milwaukee, because Marquette is getting better. I think they have a ceiling around or a little above .500 in league though.
6) Seton Hall - I think SHU is really talented, probably the second best team in the league by the eye test. I think they will be really tough in March because SHU can match up with anyone, but they aren't pulling out close games because they waste too many possessions with bad shots. They already have 4 BE losses, and it is hard to make that up in this conference.
7) Creighton - I like watching Creighton play, and I think they are going to be really tough next year. They move the ball well and get really good shots. They have a win over Villanova, and will play everyone else close. They have 6 very winnable games in the next 30 days, and with a little luck in the stretch where they play Xavier, at UConn and at SHU, they could find themselves a lot higher in the standings in the middle of February.

Big gap

8) Depaul - I like this team the most of the bottom 4, and think they will win a handful against the Top 7. The overall talent is not there yet, but they play hard and just make things happen on both ends. They are just fun to watch. I actually like David Jones more than Freeman-Liberty, and think he could be one of the best players in the Big East next year once he becomes "the guy".
9) St. Johns - Love the style of play but the talent is not there yet. SJU is relentless attacking the hoop, with cutter after cutter, even when they are posting up or are penetrating. Champagnie is very good, and will probably win a couple of games over the Top 7 by himself.
10) Butler - Does not have Big East caliber talent, but they play smart and have a couple of wins over Depaul and Georgetown. Their shooting percentage is deceptively low, in a large part because they just can't get open. They are not terrible when they have Nze, and will probably upset 1 or 2 of the #2 to #7 teams.

gap

11) Georgetown - Not competitive. 0 for the Big East is a possibility.

2 through 7 could finish in any order, so every game matters. The team that pulls out the close ones within this group finishes second. Can UConn do that?


I don't understand which games are being made up and which ones are not, so I will assume they are all going to be made up for this analysis.
 
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Good work, @nelsonmuntz.

An important factor to consider about Butler is they are finally starting to get healthy.

Butler was 2-4 in the six D1 games starting PF Bryce Nze was out w/ a shoulder injury. Nze is not only their best rebounder and averages 8.4 ppg, but he's one of the better passing forwards in the Big East.

Fifth-year wing Bo Hodges made his season debut Thursday after missing time w/ a knee injury. At ETSU, he was the team's do-everything leader and in nine games w/ Butler last year, he averaged 8.2p, 6.0r, 2.3. Backup freshman forward DJ Hughes should be good to go after missing three games due to Covid protocols.

Between those three, you've got two guys who played starter's minutes last year and now almost fully healthy (Myles Tate probably won't play this year) Butler now can flex their 12-man rotation.

I also wouldn't be surprised if Nze and Hodges' return help Chuck Harris' efficiency (36.9 2p%, 30.9 3p% this year vs 39.9 3p%, 40.3 3p% last year).
 
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Any opinions?
Honestly, I don’t agree with you a lot but I do here. I’d maybe flip 8 and 10.

Crieghton is the biggest mystery, they are 2-2 and have played by far the most difficult schedule in the conference so theoretically they are in great shape but I don’t love their roster.

I stated the SH love in November around here was weird, still is, I think 6th is right for them.
 
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Still not sold on 'Nova being the top team in the BE. Lack of height, athleticism and depth have hurt them early. With that said, they are playing their freshmen more in recent games so the depth may be developing.
 
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Give me 2 weeks to answer this. I mean I don’t see us being 3 but hope we’re top 5. Not sold on that either but 4-0,3-1 at worst next 4 is required or get ready for the bubble.
 
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1) Villanova - they're way overhyped but nobody else in the BE has proven anything consistently

2) Xavier - Toss up between UConn and Xavier here, so for now I'll just with the higher ranked team

3) UConn - we've discussed UConn ad nauseum already

4) Seton Hall - 2nd best team but they've had a lot of slip ups. I'm sure the next time we go through this they'll be back up to 2nd as more teams slip up

5) Providence - they're a tournament team but a step below the top 4 right now

6) Marquette - have enough good wins to be taken seriously now. Legitimate bubble team as their floor right now

7) Creighton - never count out McDermott, Nembhard is a star

8) St John's - they'll give people tough games but that's about it

9) DePaul - improved team from last year but not a real threat

10) Butler - I'll refrain from all comments because we play them twice this week

11) Georgetown - Patrick Ewing
 
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UConn is nowhere near the bubble.

Not sure I said that? Go 2-2 they will be heading that direction is my point. Have to begin to win games they should win. My point is playing Butler twice, DePaul and GTown while not easy, is an easier piece of the schedule so need to have a very successful run. Especially since we have Nova, Xavier, Creighton twice each still. Am I wrong?
 

shizzle787

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1. Nova- think they are about to go on a big run
2. UConn- we should win the next five in a row to gain some big momentum
3. Providence- already have a good head start
4. Xavier- solid; will beat who they are supposed to and lose to who they are supposed to
5. Seton Hall- will right the ship
6. Marquette- in the midst of a tricky stretch but will hover around 20 wins when all is said
7. Creighton- will beat some good teams and lose some head scratchers
8. St. John's- will beat the bottom three and that's about it
9. Butler- will get one or two scalps
10. DePaul- only see 4-5 BE wins
11. Georgetown- will struggle to win more than a game in conference
 

nelsonmuntz

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Good work, @nelsonmuntz.

An important factor to consider about Butler is they are finally starting to get healthy.

Butler was 2-4 in the six D1 games starting PF Bryce Nze was out w/ a shoulder injury. Nze is not only their best rebounder and averages 8.4 ppg, but he's one of the better passing forwards in the Big East.

Fifth-year wing Bo Hodges made his season debut Thursday after missing time w/ a knee injury. At ETSU, he was the team's do-everything leader and in nine games w/ Butler last year, he averaged 8.2p, 6.0r, 2.3. Backup freshman forward DJ Hughes should be good to go after missing three games due to Covid protocols.

Between those three, you've got two guys who played starter's minutes last year and now almost fully healthy (Myles Tate probably won't play this year) Butler now can flex their 12-man rotation.

I also wouldn't be surprised if Nze and Hodges' return help Chuck Harris' efficiency (36.9 2p%, 30.9 3p% this year vs 39.9 3p%, 40.3 3p% last year).

My issue with Butler is their team speed. They don't have a single 1-on-1 guy that can just beat his man off the dribble so they depend heavily on back screens, they have to take risks like releasing off the shot to get transition hoops, and while their defensive fundamentals are good, their guards get smoked off the bounce a lot. They burn a lot of shot clock every possession just trying to get open.

I do think they play smart and make teams work on both ends, but they play more like a mid-major than a Big East team.
 

Huskyforlife

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1. Nova- The king until they're dethroned, but not the same Nova from the past 5ish years.

2. UConn- Most talent in the conference, injuries to key players in almost every loss. Second best player in the conference.

3. Xaiver- Extremely solid/experienced team. Scruggs and Nunje(sp?) are very good.

4. Seton Hall- More talent than Xaiver, but should be on a 3 game losing streak.

5. Providence- Most overhyped team in the conference and maybe the country. Pains me we lost to them

6. St Johns- Best Player in the conference. Well coached. Like has been stated, not an easy out, but no good wins either.

Drop off

7. Marquette- lower on them than most. Play hard, but don't have the talent. They might have a better season than St Johns, but i think im more scared of the latter.

8. Creighton- Talented and well coached, potential to move up. But I'm not afraid of them right now.

9. Butler: Experienced team, but just not that talented. We better sweep, or I'd move UConn below Seton Hall.

10. Depaul: Show me why I should believe in you starting now. Wins over UL and RU aren't that impressive. Seton Hall win feels fluky.

11. Georgetown- 10 fans, 50 fans, it man. Fire Ewing, and bring Denver Anglin home.
 
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Looks about right.

We have the talent to be top 2-3 in conference, but we need to be winning close games at a 60-70% clip and not a 30-40% clip, which leaves us as a non-descript and buzz-less 4th or 5th and outside the Top 25.
 
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Tier 1 - The Tournament Teams

1) Villanova. Earlier in the season, I crapped on Eric Dixon as their lone option at the 5, but in his last six he's averaged 11.2 points and 8 boards. Maybe they aren't a final four contender, but they're still the best team in the conference.

2) Xavier. They're 13-3 and they'll get even better as Freemantle is continuing his convalescence. Eight players who average 20 mpg. Depth all all positions and between Scruggs and Jones they have two guys who can attack the rim.

3) UConn. All four losses are against top-50 teams, none of which were by more than four. Still time for Jackson, Hawkins and Akok to grow and improve. You'd be hard pressed to find a better inside/outside duo in the Big East than Sanogo and Cole.

4) Seton Hall. Jared Rhoden is one of the unsung stars in the Big East and Bryce Aiken finally looks healthy, averaging 19.8 points in his last seven. Four capable bigs to navigate foul trouble. Their poor three-point shooting caps their ceiling (30.1%, 300th in nation).

5) Providence. I really like their frontcourt. Nate Watson's a load, Noah Horchler has great energy and can do a little bit of everything and Justin Minaya is a versatile frontcourt piece. What makes me pause about Providence is how inefficient their guards and wings shoot: 36.7 fg%.

Tier 2 - Tournament Candidates

6) Marquette.
Shaka Smart has done an admirable job in his first season. 6th in the nation in offensive tempo and 3rd in A/FGM ratio = beautiful basketball. Defensively, they make it tough for teams to take good shots. Justin Lewis is blossoming as a star and Darryl Morsell has really stepped up to be the #2 option on offense (13.8 ppg) while continuing his elite defense.

7) Creighton. Greg McDermott has over-achieved with this super young team, it's just weird seeing the Bluejays shoot so poorly from three (30.9 3p%, 279th in nation). Ryan Hawkins has been a major surprise while Kalkbrenner and O'Connell have really stepped up their offense (12 ppg each). However, while Ryan Nembhard has great potential, it's hard to see Creighton make the tournament w/ a freshman point guard at a 4.5/3.5 A/TO ratio.

Tier 3 - The rest

8) DePaul -
Solid rookie season for Tony Stubblefield. Javon Freeman-Liberty is a really fun bucket-getter (21.1 ppg) while sophomore wing David Jones has made a huge leap (15.5p, 7.8r) and Brandon Johnson reminds me of Whaley minus his rim protection. They can use some more shooting and offensive versatility at the five spot, but I'll be rooting for them.

9) Butler - A boring team without a star (top four scorers average between 9.9-10.4 ppg), but I'm curious how they perform now Nze and Hodges are getting healthy (both played starters' minutes last season). Nze helps their offensive flow while Hodges was a rim attacker at ETSU. However, their backcourt of Thompson, Harris and Taylor are combined awful at shooting threes (27.9%).

10) Georgetown - They shoot well from three (36.9% is 44th best in the nation) but that's about it. Awful defense (178th KenPom efficiency is worst in the Big East by 54 spots). They have an elite '21 class but their top recruits from the previous three classes have all transferred:

'18 top commit James Akinjo - 13.9p, 5.7a for Baylor
'19 top commit Qudus Wahab - 8.4p, 6.5r for Maryland
'20 top commit Jamari Sibley - 5.6p, 3.9r for UTEP

I'm rooting for him and I really want to see Ewing get two more years with this class (plus Denver Anglin next year) but I wouldn't blame the school if they choose to move on considering Ewing's inability to keep their talent around.
 

CTBasketball

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Until our late game decision making improves, we will be #4-6 in the Big East. We’re not beating Villanova or Xavier at all the current way we are playing.
 
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After another blowout loss today (albeit at Nova), I can hear the Butler faithful calling for Lavall Jordan's head.

As others have suggested, Butler has been decimated by injuries. However, they look slow. I expected more from this senior laden group.

UConn better sweep them this week.
 

nelsonmuntz

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Tier 1 - The Tournament Teams

1) Villanova. Earlier in the season, I crapped on Eric Dixon as their lone option at the 5, but in his last six he's averaged 11.2 points and 8 boards. Maybe they aren't a final four contender, but they're still the best team in the conference.

2) Xavier. They're 13-3 and they'll get even better as Freemantle is continuing his convalescence. Eight players who average 20 mpg. Depth all all positions and between Scruggs and Jones they have two guys who can attack the rim.

3) UConn. All four losses are against top-50 teams, none of which were by more than four. Still time for Jackson, Hawkins and Akok to grow and improve. You'd be hard pressed to find a better inside/outside duo in the Big East than Sanogo and Cole.

4) Seton Hall. Jared Rhoden is one of the unsung stars in the Big East and Bryce Aiken finally looks healthy, averaging 19.8 points in his last seven. Four capable bigs to navigate foul trouble. Their poor three-point shooting caps their ceiling (30.1%, 300th in nation).

5) Providence. I really like their frontcourt. Nate Watson's a load, Noah Horchler has great energy and can do a little bit of everything and Justin Minaya is a versatile frontcourt piece. What makes me pause about Providence is how inefficient their guards and wings shoot: 36.7 fg%.

Tier 2 - Tournament Candidates

6) Marquette.
Shaka Smart has done an admirable job in his first season. 6th in the nation in offensive tempo and 3rd in A/FGM ratio = beautiful basketball. Defensively, they make it tough for teams to take good shots. Justin Lewis is blossoming as a star and Darryl Morsell has really stepped up to be the #2 option on offense (13.8 ppg) while continuing his elite defense.

7) Creighton. Greg McDermott has over-achieved with this super young team, it's just weird seeing the Bluejays shoot so poorly from three (30.9 3p%, 279th in nation). Ryan Hawkins has been a major surprise while Kalkbrenner and O'Connell have really stepped up their offense (12 ppg each). However, while Ryan Nembhard has great potential, it's hard to see Creighton make the tournament w/ a freshman point guard at a 4.5/3.5 A/TO ratio.

Tier 3 - The rest

8) DePaul -
Solid rookie season for Tony Stubblefield. Javon Freeman-Liberty is a really fun bucket-getter (21.1 ppg) while sophomore wing David Jones has made a huge leap (15.5p, 7.8r) and Brandon Johnson reminds me of Whaley minus his rim protection. They can use some more shooting and offensive versatility at the five spot, but I'll be rooting for them.

9) Butler - A boring team without a star (top four scorers average between 9.9-10.4 ppg), but I'm curious how they perform now Nze and Hodges are getting healthy (both played starters' minutes last season). Nze helps their offensive flow while Hodges was a rim attacker at ETSU. However, their backcourt of Thompson, Harris and Taylor are combined awful at shooting threes (27.9%).

10) Georgetown - They shoot well from three (36.9% is 44th best in the nation) but that's about it. Awful defense (178th KenPom efficiency is worst in the Big East by 54 spots). They have an elite '21 class but their top recruits from the previous three classes have all transferred:

'18 top commit James Akinjo - 13.9p, 5.7a for Baylor
'19 top commit Qudus Wahab - 8.4p, 6.5r for Maryland
'20 top commit Jamari Sibley - 5.6p, 3.9r for UTEP

I'm rooting for him and I really want to see Ewing get two more years with this class (plus Denver Anglin next year) but I wouldn't blame the school if they choose to move on considering Ewing's inability to keep their talent around.

St. John’s?
 
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St. John’s?
Ah crap. Good catch. I'd plug them between Creighton and DePaul, kinda in their own tier "not a tournament candidate, but capable of beating any team in the conference".
 
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I can hear the Butler faithful calling for Lavall Jordan's head.
And they are justified in that desire as there's a good chance Butler will have three losing seasons in four years.

I just looked into Jordan's coaching history. Kinda crazy he got the job after just one previous season of head coaching, a 11-24 season at Milwaukee.
 

nelsonmuntz

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And they are justified in that desire as there's a good chance Butler will have three losing seasons in four years.

I just looked into Jordan's coaching history. Kinda crazy he got the job after just one previous season of head coaching, a 11-24 season at Milwaukee.

He can't recruit at all. I don't know if it is selling or talent evaluation, but that roster is an embarrassment for a major conference program. I did a quick check, and in the last three classes, Jordan has signed one recruit ranked above 160, and that recruit is no longer with the program. He seems to know his X's and O's, but he may just be one of those guys that is not cut out for the top job.
 

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