Big Bubble Night Discussion

[Jbirdp5]

Our NET is not great in part because we do not have enough wins. Unless the Selection Committee is going to use a different criteria this season, seeding is going to be heavily influenced by the NET. Furthermore, UConn's best win, USC, is getting worse.

NET Ranking 2021 College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

UConn is 36 in the NET right now. How many of those teams do you think the Huskies will jump with wins over Seton Hall and Georgetown? Maybe a deep BET run can get UConn a 4 or 5 seed, but that is a lot of eggs to put in one basket.

So where do you see Colgate being seeded with their net?

 

[7774]

Our NET is not great in part because we do not have enough wins. Unless the Selection Committee is going to use a different criteria this season, seeding is going to be heavily influenced by the NET. Furthermore, UConn's best win, USC, is getting worse.

NET Ranking 2021 College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

UConn is 36 in the NET right now. How many of those teams do you think the Huskies will jump with wins over Seton Hall and Georgetown? Maybe a deep BET run can get UConn a 4 or 5 seed, but that is a lot of eggs to put in one basket.

Well we just jumped 18 teams in the last 6 days by beating Marquette and Georgetown, so probably quite a few if we can beat them.

 

[tzznandrew]

Well we just jumped 18 teams in the last 6 days by beating Marquette and Georgetown, so probably quite a few if we can beat them.

The NET factors winning percentage in twice, raw and weighted.

Currently their winning percentage is .667 and their weighted is .659

If they win Home v. Georgetown and @Seton Hall:

Raw: .700
Weighted: .693

So that's actually a decent amount given other teams above us will be losing. We also maxed out the factor of winning margin against both Georgetown and Marquette, since the calculation stops at 10. If you figure we at least beat Georgetown at home by as much as we did on the road, we'd max that out as well.

People act like this is happening in a vacuum. Where we are ranked in NET isn't near the top, so team's are going to lose more regularly so we'll probably jump more than people think (if they win). Unlike KenPom, I don't think NET factor's in the opponent's efficiencies outside of that one game. Perhaps I'm wrong though.

Further, while I agree with @nelsonmuntz that we should have played more games when we could have, we didn't. One advantage to that given where we are (i.e. fewer games than we'd like) is that a wins increase our raw and weighted winning percentage more than they normally would at this time of year. Creighton had five more games. If you imagine playing five more scrubs at home (reasonable given we only had 3 OOC games) and winning them all, they'd be at 17-6 with a .739 percentage and a .708 weighted %.

 

[7774]

The NET factors winning percentage in twice, raw and weighted.

Currently their winning percentage is .667 and their weighted is .659

If they win Home v. Georgetown and @Seton Hall:

Raw: .700
Weighted: .693

So that's actually a decent amount given other teams above us will be losing. We also maxed out the factor of winning margin against both Georgetown and Marquette, since the calculation stops at 10. If you figure we at least beat Georgetown at home by as much as we did on the road, we'd max that out as well.

People act like this is happening in a vacuum. Where we are ranked in NET isn't near the top, so team's are going to lose more regularly so we'll probably jump more than people think (if they win). Unlike KenPom, I don't think NET factor's in the opponent's efficiencies outside of that one game. Perhaps I'm wrong though.

Further, while I agree with @nelsonmuntz that we should have played more games when we could have, we didn't. One advantage to that given where we are (i.e. fewer games than we'd like) is that a wins increase our raw and weighted winning percentage more than they normally would at this time of year. Creighton had five more games. If you imagine playing five more scrubs at home (reasonable given we only had 3 OOC games) and winning them all, they'd be at 17-6 with a .739 percentage and a .708 weighted %.


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That’s awesome info, thank you!

 

[nelsonmuntz]

So where do you see Colgate being seeded with their net?

You are the one arguing that NET doesn't matter. What selection criteria will they use instead?

 

[Jbirdp5]

You are the one arguing that NET doesn't matter. What selection criteria will they use instead?

I have not made any predictions. Just pointing out that Net has some extra flaws this year. The committee will have to make some adjustments to their strategy. Net will have a place as will other metrics and the eye test. Would love for you to take a shot at an answer though

 

[UconnU]

Worth noting that the IVY league didn’t play this year so their auto bid will go to an at-large.

 

[MilliniumPrince]

All I know, according to Palm's Bubble piece on Friday, we are playing well since Jerome Bouknight has returned.

 

[Marat]

All I know, according to Palm's Bubble piece on Friday, we are playing well since Jerome Bouknight has returned.

Jerome ?

 

[MilliniumPrince]

Jerome ?

According to Palm....Jerome. Guy writes a lot so have to let him slide on one mistake, but it made me chuckle.

 

[BlueDogs]

Let’s win the next one and we can all enjoy a very fun March

 

[Storrs South]

Bubble Schedule for Monday:

St. Bonaventure (NET 28) v. Dayton at 5:00 PM on ESPNU

• Win doesn't do much here, but a loss puts SBU on the bubble (Bracket Matrix has them safely in as a 10 seed at the moment right about where UConn is)

Saint Louis (NET 50) v. UMass at 6:00 PM on CBSSN

• A win probably doesn't help much for SLU, but a loss probably ends any attempt at any at large bid

Richmond (NET 54) v. St. Joe's at 6:00 PM on ESPN+

• Same story for the Spiders as with St. Louis

Syracuse (NET 56) v. UNC (NET 41) at 7:00 PM on ESPN

• The bubble game of the night. UNC comfortably in at the moment, Syracuse far far removed from the field. I always enjoy a Syracuse loss, but a UNC loss here could allow the Huskies to leapfrog UNC (maybe). Cuse needs to win this to have the faintest of chances at an at large bid which I don't think is possible even if they win out UNC and Clemson on their schedule. Likely need a deep ACC tourney run to have a shot.

 

[Jimdish255]

A bit OT but Georgia Tech is a funny team. Lost 2 ooc to start the year then had some nice wins and close losses except for Louisville. Those early losses were big.

 

[87Xfer]

So where do you see Colgate being seeded with their net?

waiting to see this question answered...

 

[Storrs South]

Bubble Schedule for Monday:

St. Bonaventure (NET 28) v. Dayton at 5:00 PM on ESPNU

• Win doesn't do much here, but a loss puts SBU on the bubble (Bracket Matrix has them safely in as a 10 seed at the moment right about where UConn is)

Saint Louis (NET 50) v. UMass at 6:00 PM on CBSSN

• A win probably doesn't help much for SLU, but a loss probably ends any attempt at any at large bid

Richmond (NET 54) v. St. Joe's at 6:00 PM on ESPN+

• Same story for the Spiders as with St. Louis

Syracuse (NET 56) v. UNC (NET 41) at 7:00 PM on ESPN

• The bubble game of the night. UNC comfortably in at the moment, Syracuse far far removed from the field. I always enjoy a Syracuse loss, but a UNC loss here could allow the Huskies to leapfrog UNC (maybe). Cuse needs to win this to have the faintest of chances at an at large bid which I don't think is possible even if they win out UNC and Clemson on their schedule. Likely need a deep ACC tourney run to have a shot.

I forgot one game

Colorado State v. Air Force at 10 PM. I've hammered CSU once already but I am going to do it again. They played on 3 games in February two v. bad team Wyoming and one v. awful team Airforce. And then they play them again today where a win does nothing and loss ends their season. The 21 day pauses seems to have been COVID related but not with CSU but with their opponents; so basically the MWC did nothing to help them (article in Denver Post about this). They have a NET of 43 -- 14 wins on the season of which 8 are Q4. They have split every critical series on their schedule SDSU, Boise, Utah State. If it came down to them or an Indiana, I'd rather have CSU but that's not saying much. Have 0 noteworthy games left on schedule. It's going to come down to how far they get in the MWC tournament.

 

[pepband99]

waiting to see this question answered...

"So you think the NET is the best metric ever invented. Got it"

 

[ucawn]

St. Bons in a close one on ESPNU right now

 

[6xChamps]

the A10 is absolutely terrible

 

[ucawn]

the A10 is absolutely terrible

I never bought the A-10 love. I do think the MW is legit with SDSU, Boise, and Utah State.

 

[Hi-Low]

Bonnies should drop below UConn win or lose in projections after this ugly Dayton game at home.

A-10 is a 1 or 2 bid conference this year....they have nothing close to what Dayton was last year.

Edit - Bonnies are back to your Bubble right Joe with home loss? and since UConn was your highest rated Bubble team we should now be off your Bubble.

 

[6xChamps]

I never bought the A-10 love. I do think the MW is legit with SDSU, Boise, and Utah State.

Agreed, I’ve probably watched ~10 “marquee” games in both of those conferences this year and the level of play in MWC is much better

 

[Storrs South]

That's a Q3 loss for the Bonnies...for now. Dayton could get to top 75 NET but that's damaging to SBU at home. Should put them squarely on the bubble.

 

[Dooooooomed]

And Richmond (Next 4 Out) is down 9 at the half to St Joe's (who is 3-14 on the season).

 

[Dooooooomed]

I guess it's better for Cuse to beat UNC, but that feels gross.

 

[ucawn]

I guess it's better for Cuse to beat UNC, but that feels gross.

I’m torn. It is standard to root for the home team with 2 bubble teams playing, but I don’t know if I can do it.