Belichick system

[Deepster]

Marcus Mariota is the next Drew Brees. Now I've heard it all.

 

[the Q]

I don’t like any of the parties involved, but didn’t the pats have like 7 defensive starters opt out due to Covid?

And lost Brady and had little cap room to replace any of the above?

And still was in the playoff race most of the way.

Name another team that loses that many defensive starters for a non normal football related reason and is still competitor.

(Not To mention cam looked pretty good until he got Covid).

 

[Deepster]

(Not To mention cam looked pretty good until he got Covid).

Did he? Through 3 games, he made plays with his legs but had 2 passing TD's, 2 INT's total. 155 and 162 yds passing in Games 1 & 3. Lots of dinks and dunks. You could also say there was no preseason game film of him and took a couple weeks for Def Coordinators to know what facing them would be like.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Marcus Mariota is the next Drew Brees. Now I've heard it all.

I don't expect it, but it is possible that he thrives in the right setting. He has the talent. QB success is linked closely to how they fit the offensive system.

Tony Romo was undrafted, and was a 3rd string holder, who only survived a cut his first year because one of the 4 QBs in camp got hurt. Kurt Warner was playing arena football. The WFT just signed Taylor Heinicke to a two year deal.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I don’t like any of the parties involved, but didn’t the pats have like 7 defensive starters opt out due to Covid?

And lost Brady and had little cap room to replace any of the above?

And still was in the playoff race most of the way.

Name another team that loses that many defensive starters for a non normal football related reason and is still competitor.

(Not To mention cam looked pretty good until he got Covid).

No, but they had the most opt outs in the NFL. They had two defensive starters and one starting OT opt out. One of the two was a LB, and the defensive captain and play caller. Since they lost two other starting LBs to free agency they lost the entire LB corps. The other starter who opted out was a big safety, who plays LB in some dime defenses, so yeah it hurt the D.

Cam looked good in game 1, where the Pats came out and ran read option and the other team wasn't ready for it, because they hadn't run it since Steve Grogan was the QB. After that, not so much. Nobody knew he couldn't throw at that point. As the season went on it became obvious and teams played the run, dared Cam to pass and the running game struggled.

I think it was kind of amazing they went 7-9 and nearly won about 3 of the games they lost. It won't take much to improve on that and the have 63 million in cap space.

 

[Deepster]

No, but they had the most opt outs in the NFL. They had two defensive starters and one starting OT opt out. One of the two was a LB, and the defensive captain and play caller. Since they lost two other starting LBs to free agency they lost the entire LB corps. The other starter who opted out was a big safety, who plays LB in some dime defenses, so yeah it hurt the D.

Cam looked good in game 1, where the Pats came out and ran read option and the other team wasn't ready for it, because they hadn't run it since Steve Grogan was the QB. After that, not so much. Nobody knew he couldn't throw at that point. As the season went on it became obvious and teams played the run, dared Cam to pass and the running game struggled.

I think it was kind of amazing they went 7-9 and nearly won about 3 of the games they lost. It won't take much to improve on that and the have 63 million in cap space.

So, let's assume they sign Mariota. What's your prediction for next season's record getting all those opted out guys back and spending a good amount of that cap space?

 

[HuskyHawk]

So, let's assume they sign Mariota. What's your prediction for next season's record getting all those opted out guys back and spending a good amount of that cap space?

9-11 wins. If I have to pick a single number it would be 10. Assuming a 16 game season, not 17. They could exceed that if the chips fall the right way. Good players are about to be cut all over the league. The AFC East is tougher than it's been in a long time though. On the other hand, the Patriots will face the weakest schedule they have in years. They went 7-9 against the toughest schedule in the league last year.

 

[Deepster]

9-11 wins. If I have to pick a single number it would be 10. Assuming a 16 game season, not 17. They could exceed that if the chips fall the right way. Good players are about to be cut all over the league. The AFC East is tougher than it's been in a long time though. On the other hand, the Patriots will face the weakest schedule they have in years. They went 7-9 against the toughest schedule in the league last year.

Wow. I can live with 9 and maybe 10. No way are they an 11-5 team with Mariota at QB and a super thin WR corp. They'll get swept by Buffalo, maybe split with Miami and let's just call the Jets a split as well for arguments sake. That's 2-4 in the division. They'd have to go 9-1 outside the division. 8-2 if they swept the Jets. Not happening.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Wow. I can live with 9 and maybe 10. No way are they an 11-5 team with Mariota at QB and a super thin WR corp. They'll get swept by Buffalo, maybe split with Miami and let's just call the Jets a split as well for arguments sake. That's 2-4 in the division. They'd have to go 9-1 outside the division. 8-2 if they swept the Jets. Not happening.

So you think that with a major upgrade at QB, an upgrade of the WR position via free agency and/or the draft, return of key players, improvements by last year's TE plus a new FA TE, upgrades on the DL in free agency, plus high draft picks...while facing a much weaker schedule, they will add two games at most.

I think they can split with Buffalo. Split Miami, Sweep the Jets. Then they need to go 6-3 against a pretty mediocre schedule. They could have split with Buffalo this year except for Cam's late fumble.

Buffalo is over the cap. Buffalo is going to be worse than last year. And in another year, they have to pay Allen, and cut even more talent. Here is the schedule. Jags, Texans, Panthers, Falcons. That's four bad teams. The Titans seem in decline and are over the cap. Indy is on the upswing, but has to replace Rivers. The Saints are certainly very good, but lose Brees. The Browns should be very good. Maybe the toughest game on the schedule along with Tampa. Chargers...who ever knows with them.

I think Bill will focus on the defense and OL.

 

[Deepster]

So you think that with a major upgrade at QB, an upgrade of the WR position via free agency and/or the draft, return of key players, improvements by last year's TE plus a new FA TE, upgrades on the DL in free agency, plus high draft picks...while facing a much weaker schedule, they will add two games at most.

I think they can split with Buffalo. Split Miami, Sweep the Jets. Then they need to go 6-3 against a pretty mediocre schedule. They could have split with Buffalo this year except for Cam's late fumble.

Buffalo is over the cap. Buffalo is going to be worse than last year. And in another year, they have to pay Allen, and cut even more talent. Here is the schedule. Jags, Texans, Panthers, Falcons. That's four bad teams. The Titans seem in decline and are over the cap. Indy is on the upswing, but has to replace Rivers. The Saints are certainly very good, but lose Brees. The Browns should be very good. Maybe the toughest game on the schedule along with Tampa. Chargers...who ever knows with them.

I think Bill will focus on the defense and OL.

I'm bored today.....so.....

Not sure why the Titans are in decline. Tanny and Henry are there and the WR's are up and coming. Vrabel is one of the best young coaches out there.

Panthers are the leaders right now for Watson. The Chargers have Herbert who played even up against a slate of HOF'ers this year. Texans are horrid, Falcons are too and the Jags won't likely make huge strides but add Lawrence and who knows?

And I also don't see 3-1 against Miami/NYJ. I think 9-7 is my guess. No worse than 8-8, no better than 10-6.

 

[Waquoit]

9-11 wins.

This season was an eye-opener for me. I'm wondering if we're past peak Belichick. Brady winning has affected his luster. He needs a big talent upgrade. In the past, the Pats would win many games because the other team's were so poorly coached. The AFC East has some head coaches these days. They can't do that anymore. Double digit wins seems optimistic.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Big trade for Patriots. Signals that Thuney will not be back, and Cannon is pretty likely to be cut. Mike Reiss suggests that it will be:
LT: Wynn
LG: Onwenu
C: Andrews or FA
RG: Mason
LG: Brown

That is a bunch of maulers. Suggests this team plans to run the ball and win the trench battles. I expect some DL additions soon.

 

[the Q]

Big trade for Patriots. Signals that Thuney will not be back, and Cannon is pretty likely to be cut. Mike Reiss suggests that it will be:
LT: Wynn
LG: Onwenu
C: Andrews or FA
RG: Mason
LG: Brown

That is a bunch of maulers. Suggests this team plans to run the ball and win the trench battles. I expect some DL additions soon.

That’s still a decent OL if Andrew’s is healthy.

And the pats have absurd cap space to add some talent around an offense that lacks much besides Michel and white

 

[HuskyHawk]

That’s still a decent OL if Andrew’s is healthy.

And the pats have absurd cap space to add some talent around an offense that lacks much besides Michel and white

That's potentially a top 5 OL. White is a FA and is likely gone. Harris looks very solid. I think they will add a speed RB to catch balls, but I was encouraged that Michel and Harris both looked good catching the ball. We get Dan Vitale back now too. I think the two young TEs will make a big jump with better QB play and a normal offseason. Marqise Lee is a decent WR who opted out and will be back.

 

[Deepster]

Looks like the QB situation for them right now is:

Dallas is out. Dak signing there eliminates any shuffling from the Cowboys outside their team at QB.
I can't see them trading the picks for Watson.
Russell Wilson doesn't have them on his list.

The logical thing is Matt Ryan reunites with Shanahan in SF and Jimmy G comes back to NE. If Watson goes to Carolina, maybe Bridgewater. Or Trubisky. Or Sam Darnold but I can't see them trading with the Jets.

Am I missing another option? If that's it, then if they don't get Jimmy G, they're in trouble at that position for the next few years.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Looks like the QB situation for them right now is:

Dallas is out. Dak signing there eliminates any shuffling from the Cowboys outside their team at QB.
I can't see them trading the picks for Watson.
Russell Wilson doesn't have them on his list.

The logical thing is Matt Ryan reunites with Shanahan in SF and Jimmy G comes back to NE. If Watson goes to Carolina, maybe Bridgewater. Or Trubisky. Or Sam Darnold but I can't see them trading with the Jets.

Am I missing another option? If that's it, then if they don't get Jimmy G, they're in trouble at that position for the next few years.

Dak is out. He's too pricey for BB anyway.

My view.

1. Mariota is released or a similar contract restructure and trade occurs with the Raiders.
1A. Draft a guy at 15 if somebody they like (Jones) falls. This can happen with 1.
2. Jimmy G, but SF can't make that move until they have a replacement. So probably post draft.
3. If 1A happens, then sign a cheap Vet. Dalton, Smith, Cam to a one year deal.
4. If 1A happens sign a younger upside Vet, Trubisky or Winston. Depends on how you feel about the draft pick.
5. If you get Mariota or Jimmy G, you pick Kellen Mond or Jamie Newman in rounds 3-5. Both have upside, and aren't really that far off the guys later in the 1st round. Better value.

I would include Gardner Minshew here, but Jax would be crazy to trade him now. He's a good player and is making Brian Hoyer money for the next two years. Even if Lawrence beats him out, you don't trade him until next season.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Well the Patriots are re-signing Cam. Hope that signals that they will also draft a QB.