A Case for Kansas to the Big East

[SoFla Steve]

It makes some sense.

The Case For Kansas To Join The Big East

 

[Fishy]

Not really.

They can make a multiple of whatever the Big East pays out by staying in whatever the Big 12 looks like going forward.

 

[don356]

That's what happens when a reporter from a basketball only school has a lot of time and beer on his hands.

 

[Durks07]

Not really.

They can make a multiple of whatever the Big East pays out by staying in whatever the Big 12 looks like going forward.

That anyone ever thinks a school is going to willingly take less money never fails to astonish me.

 

[Kolumbo]

That anyone ever thinks a school is going to willingly take less money never fails to astonish me.

Clearly you didn't read the article.

"With their conference crumbling around them and no sign of the Big 12 being able to restore itself to the financial success it had been seeing the last few years, it’s becoming rapidly apparent that the remaining eight athletic programs in the league need to make the best decision for themselves going forward."

"You don’t have to be a calculus wizard to see that Big East basketball is more valuable to their television partners than Big 12 basketball is to theirs. It is currently in Kansas basketball’s best financial interest to jump from whatever remains of the Big 12 to the Big East. In fact, Kansas making that move would actually improve the value of the Big East when it’s time for a new contract."

 

[Durks07]

Clearly you didn't read the article.

"With their conference crumbling around them and no sign of the Big 12 being able to restore itself to the financial success it had been seeing the last few years, it’s becoming rapidly apparent that the remaining eight athletic programs in the league need to make the best decision for themselves going forward."

"You don’t have to be a calculus wizard to see that Big East basketball is more valuable to their television partners than Big 12 basketball is to theirs. It is currently in Kansas basketball’s best financial interest to jump from whatever remains of the Big 12 to the Big East. In fact, Kansas making that move would actually improve the value of the Big East when it’s time for a new contract."

If at this point, after watching realignment over the past 20 years you cannot figure out how the very simple math works for the universities, then perhaps your time would be better spent elsewhere.

Kansas receives approximately $28 million per year from its current TV contract. That contract is in place for four more seasons. When TX and OK leave, the conference projects that the conference will lose half of its value (Big 12’s Revenue Could Be Cut In Half With Departures). Half of 28 million is 14 million. The current Big East media contract pays approximately 4.6 million annually (The Big East’s Media Marriage: Life Beyond 2025 with FS1). That is 9.4 million less than the $14 million the broken Big 12 expects to pay, even without TX and OK.

If Kansas joins the Big East, it's basketball program will have to bring approximately $112.8 million (9.4 million x 12) annually in new money to break even with the Big 12’s projected nightmare scenario because every team will get the same share.

If Kansas could do that, then it would not have any problems at all. It would already be in the Big 10 or any conference that it wants. Kansas is not going to makes its football team go independent (or drop to FCS like this asinine article suggests) and pay to fly all their non-revenue sports to the East Coast for substantially less money annually when the remnants of the Big 12 is 1) still a pretty good basketball conference and 2) will pay them a lot more to incur fewer expenses.

 

[CL82]

If at this point, after watching realignment over the past 20 years you cannot figure out how the very simple math works for the universities, then perhaps your time would be better spent elsewhere.

Kansas receives approximately $28 million per year from its current TV contract. That contract is in place for four more seasons. When TX and OK leave, the conference projects that the conference will lose half of its value (Big 12’s Revenue Could Be Cut In Half With Departures). Half of 28 million is 14 million. The current Big East media contract pays approximately 4.6 million annually (The Big East’s Media Marriage: Life Beyond 2025 with FS1). That is 9.4 million less than the $14 million the broken Big 12 expects to pay, even without TX and OK.

If Kansas joins the Big East, it's basketball program will have to bring approximately $112.8 million (9.4 million x 12) annually in new money to break even with the Big 12’s projected nightmare scenario because every team will get the same share.

If Kansas could do that, then it would not have any problems at all. It would already be in the Big 10 or any conference that it wants. Kansas is not going to makes its football team go independent (or drop to FCS like this asinine article suggests) and pay to fly all their non-revenue sports to the East Coast for substantially less money annually when the remnants of the Big 12 is 1) still a pretty good basketball conference and 2) will pay them a lot more to incur fewer expenses.

Generally agree, but keep in mind the BE's deal is nearing its end (Spring 2026 maybe?). It is very likely to increase.

Also you analysis didn't include OU and Texas' exit fees which are sizeable, I think something in excess of $150M. Those fees can be used subsidize the remaining teams earnings, much the way the C7's fees subsidized UConn, Cinci and the Florida schools.

 

[Storrs South]

The only way Kansas comes to the Big East is the following:

• Option 1: The Big 12 dissolves - the majority of other members in the conference have found refuge in another conference (OSU / TTU / ISU / TCU to PAC, WVU to ACC, something like that) and Kansas is not extended an offer anywhere. Pretty clear that in this scenario it's either joining the AAC, MWC, or Big East / Indy which yes Big East makes the most sense imo. Pretty unlikely this happens as even Big East football still lives to this day (AAC). The last football conference that dissolved was the WAC in 2012, MAAC in 2007, Big West in 2000, and I think the SWC before that in 1996 so it happens occasionally, but even those first three examples the conferences live on, just football is no longer sponsored, so it has been 25 years since the last time this option took place at the D1 level.
• Option 2: The Big 12 remains an entity but Kansas is left playing the AAC (current B12 schools leave en masse to other conferences, and backfill with AAC). Maybe the make up of the conference at that point would be Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, UCF, Cincy, Memphis, Houston, SMU, USF, and Tulane. Given this is more AAC teams than Big 12 teams, maybe the AAC does poach B12 leftovers once exits fees stop and TV deal expire. Either way, Big 12 or AAC, a conference of that member group probably only garners $10-12 million annually per member less travel costs, production costs, and playing teams the fanbase wouldn't care about (not that PC v. Memphis is probably better or worse to a Jayhawk fan). This is a likelier option, but not much more likely as I am skeptical any P4 conference wants what is left of the B12.

The option 3, which is not an option in my opinion, is the Big 12 remains intact with current 8 plus 2-4 AAC teams yet Kansas decides to leave. That ain't happening monetarily wise or opponent wise it doesn't make sense. I imagine KU fans still want to play many current Big 12 schools and would prefer so over a schedule that brings Kansas east of the Mississippi under the Big East. And even this weakened conference would make enough money to be greater than what they would get in the Big East ($15-20 million annually). Even with more money likely coming for the Big East in 2025, I can't see it getting close to that figure. Yes the Big East deal values basketball more than the Big 12 deal does, but Kansas football is getting way WAY more money in the Big 12 than it would as an independent, AAC, MWC member and that alone would keep them where they are.

TL;DR - Kansas is only coming to the Big East if the Big 12 either is dismantled that Kansas is on an island with no other options OR the Big 12 needs to get to such a weakened state that it is becomes the AAC (or AAC becomes the Big 12). I give that a 5-10% chance of either option occurring at best.

 

[Kolumbo]

If at this point, after watching realignment over the past 20 years you cannot figure out how the very simple math works for the universities, then perhaps your time would be better spent elsewhere.

Kansas receives approximately $28 million per year from its current TV contract. That contract is in place for four more seasons. When TX and OK leave, the conference projects that the conference will lose half of its value (Big 12’s Revenue Could Be Cut In Half With Departures). Half of 28 million is 14 million. The current Big East media contract pays approximately 4.6 million annually (The Big East’s Media Marriage: Life Beyond 2025 with FS1). That is 9.4 million less than the $14 million the broken Big 12 expects to pay, even without TX and OK.

If Kansas joins the Big East, it's basketball program will have to bring approximately $112.8 million (9.4 million x 12) annually in new money to break even with the Big 12’s projected nightmare scenario because every team will get the same share.

If Kansas could do that, then it would not have any problems at all. It would already be in the Big 10 or any conference that it wants. Kansas is not going to makes its football team go independent (or drop to FCS like this asinine article suggests) and pay to fly all their non-revenue sports to the East Coast for substantially less money annually when the remnants of the Big 12 is 1) still a pretty good basketball conference and 2) will pay them a lot more to incur fewer expenses.

Actually reading his argument, no where does he suggest Kansas leave to make less money, and certainly not before 2025.

 

[Durks07]

Generally agree, but keep in mind the BE's deal is nearing its end (Spring 2026 maybe?). It is very likely to increase.

Also you analysis didn't include OU and Texas' exit fees which are sizeable, I think something in excess of $150M. Those fees can be used subsidize the remaining teams earnings, much the way the C7's fees subsidized UConn, Cinci and the Florida schools.

The subsidizing will not indefinitely bridge the financial gap. Ultimately, the remaining Big 12 schools will do whatever will make them the most money annually.

They way it is looking, the best "financial decision" will be keeping whatever remains of the Big 12 alive (projected $14m per year). I understand that this assumes the Big 12 will continue to exist and receive a new media rights deal. The Big 12 believes it will happen and it probably will. It has a top 5-6 football conference (even after the raid) and a top 5-6 basketball conference. It is still better than the AAC, MWC, or MAC, which all have media rights deals.

There is just no incentive for any Big 12 school to abandon that much money going forward to join any conference that is not the B1G, ACC, or PAC. Sadly, none of them appear to have any chance at that.

 

[CL82]

The subsidizing will not indefinitely bridge the financial gap. Ultimately, the remaining Big 12 schools will do whatever will make them the most money annually.

They way it is looking, the best "financial decision" will be keeping whatever remains of the Big 12 alive (projected $14m per year). I understand that this assumes the Big 12 will continue to exist and receive a new media rights deal. The Big 12 believes it will happen and it probably will. It has a top 5-6 football conference (even after the raid) and a top 5-6 basketball conference. It is still better than the AAC, MWC, or MAC, which all have media rights deals.

There is just no incentive for any Big 12 school to abandon that much money going forward to join any conference that is not the B1G, ACC, or PAC. Sadly, none of them appear to have any chance at that.

We are in agreement. The existing OU/TX exit fees are an incentive to stay in the little 12, not to leave it.

 

[bobbyinaz]

We are in agreement. The existing OU/TX exit fees are an incentive to stay in the little 12, not to leave it.

The subsidizing will not indefinitely bridge the financial gap. Ultimately, the remaining Big 12 schools will do whatever will make them the most money annually.

They way it is looking, the best "financial decision" will be keeping whatever remains of the Big 12 alive (projected $14m per year). I understand that this assumes the Big 12 will continue to exist and receive a new media rights deal. The Big 12 believes it will happen and it probably will. It has a top 5-6 football conference (even after the raid) and a top 5-6 basketball conference. It is still better than the AAC, MWC, or MAC, which all have media rights deals.

There is just no incentive for any Big 12 school to abandon that much money going forward to join any conference that is not the B1G, ACC, or PAC. Sadly, none of them appear to have any chance at that.

There will only be exit fees if UT & OU leave early.

The best thing for the remaining 8 is to keep UT & OU in place until the B12 contract expires in 2025. Since the new ESPN/SEC contract doesn't start until 2024 there is no rush for UT & OK to get to the SEC.

If they can keep it together it let's them kick the can down the road for 4 years. It gives them time to decide what the best path forward is while also buying some time in the technology world.

 

[CL82]

There will only be exit fees if UT & OU leave early.

No there will be additional fees if they leave early. The $150M is just the cost to leave the conference in 2025 (IIRC.)

 

[Durks07]

We are in agreement. The existing OU/TX exit fees are an incentive to stay in the little 12, not to leave it.

I misunderstood you then. My bad.

 

[don356]

I misunderstood you then. My bad.

Details on the transition

How Longhorn Network could fund exit fees if Texas, Oklahoma leave Big 12 before 2025

...

247sports.com

 

[bobbyinaz]

No there will be additional fees if they leave early. The $150M is just the cost to leave the conference in 2025 (IIRC.)

Absolutely not. The exit fees are only if they leave early.

The whole purpose of notifying them that are leaving at the end of the contract is to avoid exit fees

From the article attached above:

Texas and Oklahoma's days in the Big 12 Conference are numbered, as both programs informed the league Monday they will not renew their media rights with the league in 2025 before the two formally applied to join the Southeastern Conference on Tuesday. Of course, it is difficult to see the Longhorns and Sooners staying within the Big 12 up until that expiration date should the move to the SEC indeed be approved in the coming days ... even if that entails paying the Big 12 a hefty exit fee.

But with that in mind, could there be an avenue in which the Longhorns and Sooners can mitigate any burdens that would come with paying $70 million apiece to leave the conference? Outside of a scenario in which the Big 12 dissolves and there are no exit fees owed, Horns247's Chip Brown reported Tuesday that the Longhorn Network -- the network is controlled by ESPN -- could end up virtually cancelling out those fees if ESPN was to pay out the remainder of its contract.

"A source close to the situation said the buyout money for Texas and Oklahoma to leave the Big 12 before 2025 could come from the roughly $160 million Texas is still owed by ESPN for the final 10 years of ESPN's 20-year, $300 million contract with Texas for the Longhorn Network," Brown reported Tuesday.

 

[CL82]

Absolutely not. The exit fees are only if they leave early.

The whole purpose of notifying them that are leaving at the end of the contract is to avoid exit fees

From the article attached above:

Texas and Oklahoma's days in the Big 12 Conference are numbered, as both programs informed the league Monday they will not renew their media rights with the league in 2025 before the two formally applied to join the Southeastern Conference on Tuesday. Of course, it is difficult to see the Longhorns and Sooners staying within the Big 12 up until that expiration date should the move to the SEC indeed be approved in the coming days ... even if that entails paying the Big 12 a hefty exit fee.

But with that in mind, could there be an avenue in which the Longhorns and Sooners can mitigate any burdens that would come with paying $70 million apiece to leave the conference? Outside of a scenario in which the Big 12 dissolves and there are no exit fees owed, Horns247's Chip Brown reported Tuesday that the Longhorn Network -- the network is controlled by ESPN -- could end up virtually cancelling out those fees if ESPN was to pay out the remainder of its contract.

"A source close to the situation said the buyout money for Texas and Oklahoma to leave the Big 12 before 2025 could come from the roughly $160 million Texas is still owed by ESPN for the final 10 years of ESPN's 20-year, $300 million contract with Texas for the Longhorn Network," Brown reported Tuesday.

Yeah, I don't that says what you think it says. Here, try this, it is a little more clear.

Per Rittenberg, “The Big 12 bylaws require any withdrawing member to give the league at least 18 months' notice. There also is a hefty exit fee -- departing schools must pay the league a ‘commitment buyout fee,’ which is an amount equal to the sum of distributions that otherwise would be paid to the school during the final two years of its membership. Exiting schools, according to the bylaws, ‘shall be deemed to have agreed to forfeit all distributions of any type that otherwise would have been made to the withdrawing member during the interim period’ between the notice date and the actual departure date.”

Rittenberg noted that last year the Big 12 distributed about $38 million per team, meaning that — should those numbers hold — Texas and Oklahoma would be on the hook for around $76 million apiece.

Unless the league dissolves, which is what ESPN tried to do using the American, the fees are owed. In addition to those exit fees, the schools could try to buy out their 18 month waiting period. That would cost money over and above the exit fee.

 

[JeepCSC]

Absolutely not. The exit fees are only if they leave early.

The whole purpose of notifying them that are leaving at the end of the contract is to avoid exit fees

From the article attached above:

Texas and Oklahoma's days in the Big 12 Conference are numbered, as both programs informed the league Monday they will not renew their media rights with the league in 2025 before the two formally applied to join the Southeastern Conference on Tuesday. Of course, it is difficult to see the Longhorns and Sooners staying within the Big 12 up until that expiration date should the move to the SEC indeed be approved in the coming days ... even if that entails paying the Big 12 a hefty exit fee.

But with that in mind, could there be an avenue in which the Longhorns and Sooners can mitigate any burdens that would come with paying $70 million apiece to leave the conference? Outside of a scenario in which the Big 12 dissolves and there are no exit fees owed, Horns247's Chip Brown reported Tuesday that the Longhorn Network -- the network is controlled by ESPN -- could end up virtually cancelling out those fees if ESPN was to pay out the remainder of its contract.

"A source close to the situation said the buyout money for Texas and Oklahoma to leave the Big 12 before 2025 could come from the roughly $160 million Texas is still owed by ESPN for the final 10 years of ESPN's 20-year, $300 million contract with Texas for the Longhorn Network," Brown reported Tuesday.

You’re confusing the cost for leaving early (GOR) which is tied to the tv contract, and the exit fee which is tied to simply being in the conference.

“Big 12 bylaws state that members that plan to leave the conference are required to give 18 months notice and pay an exit fee that is equal to two years of revenue distributions.”

KU Sports

Now that Texas and Oklahoma have formally stated their intentions to leave the Big 12 Conference, let’s take a first glance at how the next several months (years?) might play out. And then we’ll do it again and again and again and again. Because it sure doesn’t feel like this train is slowing...

m.kusports.com

There is thought that Texas could use the ESPN/longhorn money to pay off the GOR. But the exit fee remains. There will definitely be some finagling and wheeling-dealing, so we will see what their total bill at the end. But Ok-Texas can’t simply out-wait the exit fees as the conference bylaws aren’t on a clock like the media rights.

 

[JeepCSC]

Actually reading his argument, no where does he suggest Kansas leave to make less money, and certainly not before 2025.

His argument is built on Kansas taking less money. He does the math and says the new Big 8 would pay out $18 million, but only $3 million is basketball related so they might as well make $4 million in the Big East. Except Kansas would still need a football tv contract. So unless they can get $15 million on the open market for Jayhawk football (hint, they can’t), it’s better to package both programs together under the new Big 8 umbrella.

 

[Viet Vet]

Full Disclosure:

I am a Connecticut native, resident, UConn alumnus ('74), long-time hockey season ticketholder, and died-in-the-wool Husky fan. So I am far from unbiased, but..................the notion that Kansas might join the Big East is fantasy.

Let's, for the moment, dispense with the analysis of $$$$$$. Look, I have spent my entire adult life as a self-employed investment/insurance broker, so I pay attention to every nickel and dime I am able produce, without any union or taxpayer safety net. So, for the moment, let us just look at some of the non-financial aspects of a potential move from the Big12 to the Big East for Kansas.

Why would Kansas want to send its men's baseball, cross country, golf, and track & field teams to Providence, UConn, St. John's, Seton Hall, Villanova, Georgetown, or any other East Coast school? And its women's soccer, volleyball, cross country, golf, rowing, swimming tennis and track & field teams to the same? They (if the opportunity presented itself) would much prefer the better competition from geographically, and culturally comparable, BiG schools such as Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, etc, etc, etc.

Kansas joining the Big East for basketball is akin to UConn having joined the AAC for football.............shortsighted.

 

[BlueDogs]

KU will join the NBE upon the first to occur of (a) it converting to a Catholic University or (b) hell freezing over, and option (b) is more likely to occur first.

 

[Kolumbo]

Full Disclosure:

I am a Connecticut native, resident, UConn alumnus ('74), long-time hockey season ticketholder, and died-in-the-wool Husky fan. So I am far from unbiased, but..................the notion that Kansas might join the Big East is fantasy.

Let's, for the moment, dispense with the analysis of $$$$$$. Look, I have spent my entire adult life as a self-employed investment/insurance broker, so I pay attention to every nickel and dime I am able produce, without any union or taxpayer safety net. So, for the moment, let us just look at some of the non-financial aspects of a potential move from the Big12 to the Big East for Kansas.

Why would Kansas want to send its men's baseball, cross country, golf, and track & field teams to Providence, UConn, St. John's, Seton Hall, Villanova, Georgetown, or any other East Coast school? And its women's soccer, volleyball, cross country, golf, rowing, swimming tennis and track & field teams to the same? They (if the opportunity presented itself) would much prefer the better competition from geographically, and culturally comparable, BiG schools such as Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, etc, etc, etc.

Kansas joining the Big East for basketball is akin to UConn having joined the AAC for football.............shortsighted.

For the same reasons as Creighton, Marquette, Butler and Xavier. Sure Kansas would much more prefer the competition of the B1G, just as UCONN would prefer the B1G or ACC. Kansas joining the New Big East for basketball is akin to UCONN having joined the New Big East for basketball. UCONN never joined the AAC, it was already a member.

It is far from ideal, and given all of the unknowns on the football side, there is a scenario where it would make sense for Kansas to join the Big East. I think there will be some version of the XII/AAC which will be an excellent football and basketball conference so Kansas to the Big East is unlikely. But if Kansas were to find itself left out due to its complete ineptitude on the gridiron with a steady diet of the likes of ECU, USF, Tulane, Tulsa, Wichita St on a regular basis on the basketball side, then welcome Jayhawks!

 

[John Greene]

The probability that KU would find itself on an island of misfits is miniscule. That 'honor' was reserved for UConn and we retired the trophy.

Remember the #1 rule of CR.

 

[Fishy]

Kansas is not coming to the Big East.

It’s not a great school, but they’re good at simple math and that’s enough to show them that they will make more in the reconstituted Big 12 than they can in the Big East.

 

[Zissou]

Kansas is not coming to the Big East.

It’s not a great school, but they’re good at simple math and that’s enough to show them that they will make more in the reconstituted Big 12 than they can in the Big East.

Let’s start with UConn is not joining the Big East.

Now with that out of the way, consider what might be possible.

First, as a Jayhawk, let’s not lose any love on UT or the Sooners. Keep the conference together long enough for the wire transfers to hit the account.

Then consider what is the best for Kansas, and being basketball-first might allow Kansas to consider all scenarios.

Here is a Scenario, as soon as the exit fee checks clear the Big 12/8 dissolves. No more exit fees. (UConn collected big exit fees and then left the AAC).

The Big East expands in partnership with Fox.

Creighton
Marquette
DePaul
Butler
Xavier
Kansas
Kansas State
Iowa State

Nova
UConn
Georgetown
St Johns
Seton Hall
Providence
Temple
Cincinnati

How? Fox increases the basketball focused Big East contract to $6M per school. That is fair value and makes the membership orientated for the change.

In what seems like “over payment” on face value, Fox pays out Football rights on a sliding scale to the football schools. Kansas is made whole on its fair Big 12 value post UT/OU. Fox accounts for the $6M it is paying for hoops and makes up the rest to Kansas. It does the same for the other programs joining on a smaller scale based on value.

On the whole, Fox pays for increasing the value of the Big East in part by paying individual football rights. The football result could be a conference sponsored sport or just a Big East Alliance.

Fox backs away from the balance of the AAC and Big 12, and offsets the new spending without having to pay Tulsa, Tulane, etc.

Kansas
Kansas State
Iowa State
UConn
Villanova
Temple
Cincinnati
Navy or Army, whoever chooses first as football only.

8 teams for football leaves nice room for scheduling others, a good balance of a base schedule and the independent scheduling opportunity.

In hoops we play twice in division and across division once, with the option for specific teams to play twice across divisions.

In other non-rev sports you do what makes sense sport-by-sport, having some sports only play in-division until conference championships, in others cross-division. The Division footprints are reasonable and there is good cost and travel time reasons to keep some sports more in the divisional footprint.

The Big East is nicely constructed in it’s current 11 team - 20 game full double round-robin format. If we don’t change, we’re good.

Making big changes to bring in a Temple or Iowa State doesn’t make sense, but to accommodate Kansas it’s worth consideration.