Wins needed for a NCAA at large bid

[ucjoet]

So a loss to Houston moved our RPI up 1. If we split the next two and then win a couple games in the tournament we probably hit both of the "New Goals." Time will tell if that's good enough (or if they can even accomplish them).

Very tough loss last night. A win would have put us in good shape with RPI and got us close to the "New Goal" of 36 wins. Also would have helped with our record vs teams in top 50. Need a win this evening, if not we are going to probably have to make it to the championship game of AAC tourney to have a serious bid for an at large bid.

Not sure if you can call tonight a must win situation, but it is pretty close.

 

[ucjoet]

current record.. season goal

11 - 12 / .478 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
10- 2 / .833% ... 10 - 2 / .833 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

33 -22/ .600 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

51.... <61- RPI

31 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable

 

[ucjoet]

This weekend was an opportunity for us solidify our at large bid qualifications. Unfortunately we have lost the first 2 games of the series. Both tough losses. I really believe today is a must win situation. If not we would definitely have to get to at least the championship game to have any opportunity of an at large bid.

Getting to championship game would probably get us strongly considered, but i don't think it would guarantee a bid. Hopefully we can get a win today





New Goals


Currently 33 wins - Goal 36 wins

Currently 51 RPI - Goal 43 or less

 

[ucjoet]

current record.. season goal

11 - 13 / .458 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
10- 2 / .833% ... 10 - 2 / .833 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

33 -23/ .589 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

53.... <61- RPI

34 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable

 

[ucjoet]

Obviously not the weekend results we were looking for. We are the 6th seed in the same group as Tulane, UCF and ECU. We need to win 3 games to win this group and get to championship game ( probably vs Houston).

Maybe it is the optimist in me, but I think we are going to accomplish this task. If so even if we lose the championship game , I am predicting we get an at large bid.

This would get us to 36 wins and our RPI should be strong enough to get in.




New Goals


Currently 33 wins - Goal 36 wins

Currently 54 RPI - Goal 43 or less

 

[huskymedic]

Projected Field Of 64 (May 19)
http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/projected-field-64-may-19/

Last Four In: Liberty, North Carolina, Auburn, UC Irvine
First Four Out: Kentucky, Maryland, Georgia Tech, Bradley
Next Four Out: Missouri, South Carolina, Central Florida, Alabama


Bids By Conference

8: ACC
7: SEC
5: Big Ten, Pac-12
4: American
3: Big West, Big South, Conference USA
2: Big 12, CAA, Missouri Valley
1: A-10, A-Sun, AEC, Big East, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Mountain West, NEC, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC, WAC, WCC

Entering This Week’s Field: Clemson, Indiana, Southern Miss, Virginia
Dropping Out From Last Week: Bradley, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Missouri

 

[ucjoet]

By splitting our first 2 tourney games are win total is now at 34 and RPI at 48. Thinking more then ever that we need to get to Championship game to have a chance at an at large bid. In my mind , I believe Houston , USF and ECU are pretty much locks for NCAA's. Thinking we need to beat out Tulane for last bid ( assuming AAC gets 4 bids)

So below is what I am rooting for

ECU beats Tulane
We beat Tulane
We then beat ECU twice.

Realize this is a tall order. But that would get us to 37 wins and guessing our RPI would be in mid to high 30's. Reason for this is we would have beaten 3 teams (Tulane once, ECU twice ) with RPI in mid 30s

So if we then assume we lose to Houston our record and Tulane's records would be as follows.

Tulane 34 -23 ( .596) Guess of RPI 40
UConn 37 - 25 (.597) Guess of RPI 35

Much has to happen for this to work out, and even if it does who knows if that is enough. But at least we have something to root for.





New Goals


Currently 33 wins - Goal 36 wins

Currently 54 RPI - Goal 43 or less

 

[ATLDYKA]

By splitting our first 2 tourney games are win total is now at 34 and RPI at 48. Thinking more then ever that we need to get to Championship game to have a chance at an at large bid. In my mind , I believe Houston , USF and ECU are pretty much locks for NCAA's. Thinking we need to beat out Tulane for last bid ( assuming AAC gets 4 bids)

So below is what I am rooting for

ECU beats Tulane
We beat Tulane
We then beat ECU twice.

Realize this is a tall order. But that would get us to 37 wins and guessing our RPI would be in mid to high 30's. Reason for this is we would have beaten 3 teams (Tulane once, ECU twice ) with RPI in mid 30s

So if we then assume we lose to Houston our record and Tulane's records would be as follows.

Tulane 34 -23 ( .596) Guess of RPI 40
UConn 37 - 25 (.597) Guess of RPI 35

Much has to happen for this to work out, and even if it does who knows if that is enough. But at least we have something to root for.





New Goals


Currently 33 wins - Goal 36 wins

Currently 54 RPI - Goal 43 or less

I agree and pretty much posted the same thing on the other thread. Maybe even only getting one win on Saturday against ECU could get us in. But then again even if that happened we would be looking at Cross not being able to pitch the 1st game of the regional due to suspension.

 

[huskymedic]

http://www.d1baseball.com/analysis/conference-tournament-madness-may-21/

>>UCF’s Season Likely Comes To An End

Remember when the Knights were ranked Top 15 earlier this season and there was plenty of talk nationally about them as a potential national seed and regional host? Well, the Knights’ season is likely over after going 0-2 in the American Athletic Conference tournament, losing Thursday, 4-3, to Connecticut.

UCF starting pitcher Cre Finfrock gave his team a gutsy start by allowing just three runs on four hits in 6.2 innings, but it was UConn’s Carson Cross who was able to go one inning more and allow just three runs in seven innings.

Connecticut still has much work to do to make the postseason, but at least kept hope alive by improving to 1-1 in the AAC tournament.

As for the Knights, here’s what their resume entails: An early-season home series win over Ole Miss, a 6-10 mark vs. RPI Top 25 teams and an ugly 10-19 mark vs. RPI Top 50 teams.

That just isn’t going to cut it on this year’s bubble.<<

 

[mets1090]

I agree and pretty much posted the same thing on the other thread. Maybe even only getting one win on Saturday against ECU could get us in. But then again even if that happened we would be looking at Cross not being able to pitch the 1st game of the regional due to suspension.

Fortunately Anthony Kay isn't a bad fall back in that situation.

 

[player]

I agree and pretty much posted the same thing on the other thread. Maybe even only getting one win on Saturday against ECU could get us in. But then again even if that happened we would be looking at Cross not being able to pitch the 1st game of the regional due to suspension.

why is cross suspended.

 

[killerBsaturn]

why is cross suspended.

Arguing balls and strikes when davey struck out. Davey and cross both got tossed.

 

[player]

Arguing balls and strikes when davey struck out. Davey and cross both got tossed.

Oh for God sake you cant say crap to these dam umpires anymore, they get their little feelings hurt. That's totally bush league by the ump, what an idiot, cant stand them.

 

[huskymedic]

Oh for God sake you cant say crap to these dam umpires anymore, they get their little feelings hurt. That's totally bush league by the ump, what an idiot, cant stand them.

He was out of the game when it occurred and came from inside dugout after Davey was arguing @ plate... I want to know if he got misconduct/unsportsmanlike toss or or verbal abuse/bench jockeying toss. Difference in length of suspension. Not sure it's been made public which yet...

 

[huskymedic]

By splitting our first 2 tourney games are win total is now at 34 and RPI at 48. Thinking more then ever that we need to get to Championship game to have a chance at an at large bid. In my mind , I believe Houston , USF and ECU are pretty much locks for NCAA's.

USF knocked off by Memphis today. Thoughts of USF Beat Writer on Tourney:

1:45pm via Twitter Web Client
Are Bulls (33-24-1) in the NCAAs? Your conjecture's as good as mine. Solid RPI & SOS, but dropped 10 of last 16. Selection show is Monday

 

[mets1090]

33 wins is low but I think their RPI is top 25 or so. Dropping 10 of 16 shouldn't factor in though assuming they look weight the whole season evenly.

 

[ucjoet]

USF knocked off by Memphis today. Thoughts of USF Beat Writer on Tourney:

1:45pm via Twitter Web Client
Are Bulls (33-24-1) in the NCAAs? Your conjecture's as good as mine. Solid RPI & SOS, but dropped 10 of last 16. Selection show is Monday

This cant hurt , unless Memphis goes on a winning streak. Obviously we need to win at minimum the next 2 games.

 

[player]

Well guys hows that for a win

 

[ucjoet]

Unbelievable. My wife and I left the house to go to a wake ( unfortunately a friend of my parents passed away) with UConn down 6 - 2 and thinking season was over. After wake my wife and I stopped to get something to eat , and at that time I checked for score. Couldn't believe it when I saw the 7 - 6 final. I posted yesterday what I thought we needed to happen for us to get an at large bid. So far so good. The first 2 steps are accomplished.



So below is what I was rooting for

ECU beats Tulane ( Yes )
We beat Tulane ( Yes)
We then beat ECU twice.

 

[ucjoet]

Not sure if only 1 more win would be enough for an at large bid. But it would get us to the previous 2 years magic combo of 36 wins and an RPI of 43 or less. I still think we need to get 2 wins vs ECU, but we may have an outside chance if we only get 1 more win. At least the season if still going on with something to root for.





New Goals


Currently 35 wins - Goal 36 wins

Currently 48 RPI - Goal 43 or less

 

[ucjoet]

I am now assuming the only 2 AAC locks are Houston and ECU. That leaves the 4 teams below fighting for 2 spots ( if we assume AAC gets 4 bids).

I base the following statistics on UConn winning next 2 but losing championship game to Houston. Houston beating Memphis in next game. Tulane and USF seasons are complete. That would leave 4 AAC teams with following resumes

UConn 37 - 25 .597 RPI 38 ( guess)
Memphis 37 - 21 .637 RPI 65 ( guess)
Tulane 34 - 23 .596 RPI 42 ( current)
USF 33-25-1 .577 RPI 29 ( current)


If this does happen. UConn would have the second best winning % and second best RPI. I would be very surprised if we did not get in under these circumstances.

Again all of this is a moot point if we do not win vs ECU. But like I said above , at least we have something to root for. Go Huskies.

 

[player]

good morning, its going to be very hard to win these games as our pitching is depleted, don't know who can start the next game as all the starters have pitched.

 

[ucjoet]

good morning, its going to be very hard to win these games as our pitching is depleted, don't know who can start the next game as all the starters have pitched.

Totally agree that it is not going to be easy, but this is all we have to root for. Not sure why, but I am optimistic that we are going to get it done. Maybe just my perception, but it seemed like we did not get many breaks during this season. Hoping they even out over next few days.

 

[player]

Totally agree that it is not going to be easy, but this is all we have to root for. Not sure why, but I am optimistic that we are going to get it done. Maybe just my perception, but it seemed like we did not get many breaks during this season. Hoping they even out over next few days.

HaHa I don't think we got one break, between the bad umpiring and the bad bounces, just look at yesterday bases loaded hard hit ground ball up the middle, hits the pitchers shin and goes right to the first basemen, you cant script that any better for the other team, well I have faith and bb is a funnt game . GOOD LUCK ALL

 

[ATLDYKA]

I am now assuming the only 2 AAC locks are Houston and ECU. That leaves the 4 teams below fighting for 2 spots ( if we assume AAC gets 4 bids).

I base the following statistics on UConn winning next 2 but losing championship game to Houston. Houston beating Memphis in next game. Tulane and USF seasons are complete. That would leave 4 AAC teams with following resumes

UConn 37 - 25 .597 RPI 38 ( guess)
Memphis 37 - 21 .637 RPI 65 ( guess)
Tulane 34 - 23 .596 RPI 42 ( current)
USF 33-25-1 .577 RPI 29 ( current)


If this does happen. UConn would have the second best winning % and second best RPI. I would be very surprised if we did not get in under these circumstances.

Again all of this is a moot point if we do not win vs ECU. But like I said above , at least we have something to root for. Go Huskies.

What I am really hoping is that the committee takes into consideration that UConn because of playing in the NE has to play the most road games of any of the teams in the AAC.