Who is most likely to get to the NC game next year?

[EricLA]

Thoughts? I guess it boils down to who the #2 team will be. For me it's a toss up between ND, SC and Baylor with maybe Tennessee or Maryland sneaking in for the top 4... Not sure how much FSU loses to graduation and maybe a few others like OSU or L'ville might make a push...

 

[ABachelor6CR]

Having lost Jewel Llyod, I see ND having a tough time getting back to the NC............just my 2 Lincolns......

 

[Wbbfan1]

At least until middle of next year, I'm going to say Look Out for Ohio State, they will surprise many, over achieve and make the Final Four and be in the Championship Game. Next year is going to be the toughest year to make the Final Four in quite a while. There will be #2 Seeds that will beat #1 seeds and some won't be considered an upset.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Baylor has "more" and a very good coach, but the second tier is full next year and it will be a wild ride.

 

[EricLA]

Good comments. Seems like folks on here are torn between thinking it will be SC or Baylor with ND a distant 3rd. I agree losing Loyd will be a big loss for them. BUT it will force the team to play more team ball and not rely on her to make something out of nothing. I think Reimer, Turner, and Allen will all be very good and ND had a lot of strength on the bench, not to mention a strong incoming class.

Heck, they could start Allen, Cable, Maybrey, Turner and Reimer and that lineup alone is a threat to make the FF...

 

[BroadwayVa]

Thoughts? I guess it boils down to who the #2 team will be. For me it's a toss up between ND, SC and Baylor with maybe Tennessee or Maryland sneaking in for the top 4... Not sure how much FSU loses to graduation and maybe a few others like OSU or L'ville might make a push...

If you mean who is number 2 in the National Championship game? Who knows. In terms of who is number Two (from the top 25) going into the NCAA ? Who know? Putting on my Carrnac cap--from my lofty seat: I predict, and I'm sure most shall agree; Baylor, SC or ND probably in that order. Then again maybe another Dayton pops up with bigger and better horses.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Good comments. Seems like folks on here are torn between thinking it will be SC or Baylor with ND a distant 3rd. I agree losing Loyd will be a big loss for them. BUT it will force the team to play more team ball and not rely on her to make something out of nothing. I think Reimer, Turner, and Allen will all be very good and ND had a lot of strength on the bench, not to mention a strong incoming class.

Heck, they could start Allen, Cable, Maybrey, Turner and Reimer and that lineup alone is a threat to make the FF...

Count in a hot freshman to the ND list and you may have a contender ---In recent years I don't count ND out of anything. Their coaching has gotten that much better. Loyd would have been the icing on the ND cake. No wonder Muffet is upset.
Anyone notice the 3 ball scoring ability by Mabrey--she's a close second to KML. Turner and Allen are real deals. Cable and Reimer have game and are tough playing kids.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Having lost Jewel Llyod, I see ND having a tough time getting back to the NC..just my 2 Lincolns.

I only have one and it's a Hyundia!!

 

[Bonpland]

If in the end it comes down to coaching, then I think ND gets there over SC. Baylor and UT are close but still have too many loose parts.

 

[triaddukefan]

Probably ND

 

[Bayareahusky]

If in the end it comes down to coaching, then I think ND gets there over SC. Baylor and UT are close but still have too many loose parts.

I am in agreement.... Muffet a great coach... and i can foresee her cutting Turner loose to do her thing and increase the involvement of Allen in the offense,, now that Jewel is gone.

 

[Gus Mahler]

Good comments. Seems like folks on here are torn between thinking it will be SC or Baylor with ND a distant 3rd. I agree losing Loyd will be a big loss for them. BUT it will force the team to play more team ball and not rely on her to make something out of nothing. I think Reimer, Turner, and Allen will all be very good and ND had a lot of strength on the bench, not to mention a strong incoming class.

Heck, they could start Allen, Cable, Maybrey, Turner and Reimer and that lineup alone is a threat to make the FF...

Yup

 

[BuckLucas]

Don't know about Ohio State overachieving if their ACL unit comes back they have a lot of talent. Up front depth only real concern....

 

[stwainfan]

I think it's between Notre Dame, Tennessee, Baylor, and South Carolina.

 

[Dougie]

Besides UCONN, all of the other teams are a number two, if you know what I mean.

 

[01Neaggrad02]

Tennessee is getting Russel, DeShields, whatever freshman they signed and (Tucker???) next season. This could be a scary team. Russell, DeShields and Tucker did not play this season and were the number 1,2,7 players out of high school..... That is just scary

 

[John Glass]

I would bet on Baylor, I think Alexis Jones is a big addition - plus the two freshman posts. Tennessee will have plenty of firepower but will they have good chemistry ?

 

[nd2tty]

I'm sure this is nothing new for UTENN fans - it's probably just the "air" you live in 24/7, exacerbated by the current F4 drought - but it's remarkable how high the expectations are (on a UCONN board no less) for the 2015-2016 season. Some great freshmen coming in, but just freshmen. Yes, they have practiced together, but Russell and DeShields have not played a game in anger together with Graves, Reynolds, Jones, Nared, and Carter.Who knows how that works in a game? They lost a fair bit as well, with Harrison, Burdick, and Massengale. A lot of pressure on an unproven team, not to mention an unproven coach. Not saying they won't do well next season, but wow, championship game expectations? And that's assuming they aren't in UCONN's region as a #2 etc, or on the same F4 side of the draw.

 

[UConnCat]

Tennessee is getting Russel, DeShields, whatever freshman they signed and (Tucker???) next season. This could be a scary team. Russell, DeShields and Tucker did not play this season and were the number 1,2,7 players out of high school..... That is just scary

Tucker hasn't played a competitive basketball game in almost 3 years. She had acl surgery in 2012 and another acl surgery (do-over on same knee) in April 2014. While fans of wcbb would love to see her return to the court, I don't think the expectations for her level of play should be what they once were.

 

[wbbfan]

Notre Dame or Baylor

 

[01Neaggrad02]

Tucker hasn't played a competitive basketball game in almost 3 years. She had acl surgery in 2012 and another acl surgery (do-over on same knee) in April 2014. While fans of wcbb would love to see her return to the court, I don't think the expectations for her level of play should be what they once were.

Was she the one with all the issues with a past boyfriend? Or was that some other Tennessee player? I do not recall the entire situation... but it did not sound good.

 

[Bayareahusky]

Was she the one with all the issues with a past boyfriend? Or was that some other Tennessee player? I do not recall the entire situation... but it did not sound good.

Yes that was her....Partly as a result .... we are all Jannah Tucker fans and rooting for her to do well..... Can you hear us Jannah? God Bless her and all successes with her life.

 

[VFLfan]

I'm sure this is nothing new for UTENN fans - it's probably just the "air" you live in 24/7, exacerbated by the current F4 drought - but it's remarkable how high the expectations are (on a UCONN board no less) for the 2015-2016 season. Some great freshmen coming in, but just freshmen. Yes, they have practiced together, but Russell and DeShields have not played a game in anger together with Graves, Reynolds, Jones, Nared, and Carter.Who knows how that works in a game? They lost a fair bit as well, with Harrison, Burdick, and Massengale. A lot of pressure on an unproven team, not to mention an unproven coach. Not saying they won't do well next season, but wow, championship game expectations? And that's assuming they aren't in UCONN's region as a #2 etc, or on the same F4 side of the draw.

I understand where you are coming from...but a lot of UCONN fans have extremely high expectations for your freshmen that are coming in...and yet, as you put it, "they're just freshmen." And I'd venture to say that most of the fans whose teams have pulled in big-time HS recruits have high expectations for their freshmen as well. Duke fans certainly do. ND fans certainly do. Not to mention USC, Louisville, Baylor, etc. So, y'all can have high expectations but no one else can?

 

[nd2tty]

I understand where you are coming from...but a lot of UCONN fans have extremely high expectations for your freshmen that are coming in...and yet, as you put it, "they're just freshmen." And I'd venture to say that most of the fans whose teams have pulled in big-time HS recruits have high expectations for their freshmen as well. Duke fans certainly do. ND fans certainly do. Not to mention USC, Louisville, Baylor, etc. So, y'all can have high expectations but no one else can?

I take your point, absolutely. In the case of UTENN, barring injuries, I think freshman performance won't actually be that large of a factor determining next year's success: I think the improved performance of Graves/Reynolds/Jones/Carter/Nared/etc in the absence of Harrison/Burdick/Massengale, and the integration of DeShields and Russell, will be much larger factors. Aside from maybe Cooper, I think the integration of 2015 freshman will probably be slow and measured. UTENN has plenty of depth and talent already.

Within reason, expectations are healthy for freshman. And - due to increased media coverage, changing perceptions of athletic maturity, and maybe even our changing perceptions as a byproduct of MBB's one-and-dones - freshman expectations are higher than they were 10-15 years ago. This has changed fan expectations and even coaching strategies (playing time, roles, season progression). However, coaches do use the youngness of a team as a rhetorical strategy to temper expectations (see Mulkey this year, or even McGraw), though fan expectations and coach expectations aren't necessarily, or even usually, in line.

I think where freshman rarely meet or exceed high expectations is NCAA tournament time. There have been exceptions, of course, Stewart being the most recent example. But Taurasi in the 2001 F4 game is far closer to the norm. And here we are talking of the #1 recruits in the country. A lot depends on current roster and need, but Geno rarely asks freshman other than #1 recruits to play pivotal roles immediately or even by tournament time. His retrospective high valuation of Dolson and Hartley reflects that hesitancy: having fewer options, he asked them to step into a 90-game winning streak as freshman and they mostly met expectations. Nowadays, he works most in slowly or allows them to play clearly-defined roles: like KML her freshman year.

 

[EricLA]

I understand where you are coming from...but a lot of UCONN fans have extremely high expectations for your freshmen that are coming in...and yet, as you put it, "they're just freshmen." And I'd venture to say that most of the fans whose teams have pulled in big-time HS recruits have high expectations for their freshmen as well. Duke fans certainly do. ND fans certainly do. Not to mention USC, Louisville, Baylor, etc. So, y'all can have high expectations but no one else can?

Really? I'm curious why you say that - that UCONN fans have said we can have high expectations but no one y'all else can. In fact, 4 of UCONN's starters next year consist of a sophomore (Nurse), junior (Tuck) and 2 seniors (Jefferson/Stewart). My money's on RS sophomore Butler as the 5th starter... or Gabby Williams.

You have Russell, who was unimpressive as a freshman, had foot surgery as a sophomore, and hasn't contributed a meaningful minute in 2 years as a Tennessee player. In fact, aside from more minutes per game, her freshman stats weren't much better than Liz Sherwood's her 1st and only year at UCONN. Tucker's had it even worse - not playing meaningful minutes in about 3 years now. Cooper has been hot and cold, and while Tennessee fans fantasize she's one of the top 2-3 players in the class, the truth is she's probably more like Massengale than Durr. Oh, and your 3 best players in the NCAA's were Burdick, Massengale, and Graves, 2 of which graduated to go along with Harrison. So you basically lost 3 starters. Oh, and they were #'s 1,2 and 3 in scoring average for the team. Graves was 4th.

Your coming up sophomores were average at best - Nared, Middleton and Dunbar didn't light anything up. I would say easily that Nurse and Williams were both better individually than any of your kids, and I read comments early on by Tenn fans that Nared was a legit top 10 kid, Middleton outplayed every other guard ranked ahead of her over the summer and she might be the best guard in the class, and Dunbar was the best shooter Tenn. fans had seen in many years and would earn serious minutes.

I do get why Tenn fans are enthusiastic. Deshields is the best player you've seen in orange since Parker. But aside from her and Graves, you have solid but unspectacular players. Not a single kid shot over 35% from beyond the arc except for Dunbar who was 37%. You had 2 players who shot over 50% from the floor - Graves and Moore, and Graves was barely over - literally 50.4%. (in comparison UCONN had 6, and 2 of our kids were over 47%.

Graves is really good. Carter is good. Reynolds, Jones and Moore are solid. Dunbar and Middleton are role players. Russell is a question mark, and Deshields is a potential 1st team AA. And of the freshmen, Cooper has a chance to be good, but if she fancies herself a PG, she has a lot to learn about shooting less and passing more, and she won't start next year. Oh, and I don't see Jackson really having any more impact than Middleton did. Role player at best. But honestly, what you have is no better than about 4 or 5 other teams out there (UCONN, Baylor, Notre Dame , and SC) and given the chemistry challenges that will be fun for opposing fans to see, Tenn has way more questions than answers.

Now having said all of that, IMHO they are a top 5 or 6 team to start the season. They will have opportunities to make a statement as they face SC, a team who I really think will be better than Tenn this season. IMHO even UCONN fans who go on and on about how "good" Tenn could be this year are still caught up with the past, and with the HS ranking of kids you have. Preseason I have them at #5 behind UCONN, SC, Baylor, and ND. Not a bad place to be and congrats - they are a legit part of the National discussion for the first time in about 6 or 7 years...