UMass as an Independent in Football: Tough to Schedule

[UConnJim]

UMass announced a bunch of games for the next few years as they leave the MAC after 2015. Here are the home and homes that they announced: Appalachian St., Army, BYU, Charlotte, Hawaii, Ohio, Troy.

Look at their to be completed future schedules as an independent:

2016:

Home: UConn, URI
Away: Florida, BC, Old Dominion, BYU, Appalachian St., Troy, Hawaii

2017:

Home: Old Dominion, Ohio, Hawaii, Appalachian St.
Away: UConn, Temple, Indiana, Tennessee, BYU


This is a brutal schedule with a terrible home schedule. Easy to get one and dones with major colleges, but hard to get home and homes. In 2016, it looks like they will play 5 home games and 7 road games.

I really don't see how UMass (or any other school with the exception of Army and ND and maybe BYU) can remain an independent in FBS football.

 

[DSquiz]

I assume they are trying to buy time. It may be a stop gap hoping that UConn gets a P5 invite and they get a spot in the AAC. If that doesn’t happen in the next few years they will be forced to drop back to 1AA. You can't keep a schedule like that going for long especially with their current fan base.

 

[ZooCougar]

Who was it here that said UConn should go Indy? Does anyone think our schedule would look that much better?

 

[Husky92]

Who was it here that said UConn should go Indy? Does anyone think our schedule would look that much better?

Fact is...it wouldn't. It's not really an option.

 

[UConnJim]

To make matters worse, there is little TV value to their home slate, so they would get very little money for the TV rights to their home games. Heck, their best home game in 2016 and 2017 so far is UConn.

 

[huskymedic]

DanWolken Sep 24, 12:29pm via TweetDeck
BYU agreeing to a four-year, home-and-home with UMass isn’t a great statement about scheduling as an independent in this day and age.

 

[Waquoit]

I almost felt a pang of sympathy for them, but it passed. em.

 

[pj]

DanWolken Sep 24, 12:29pm via TweetDeck
BYU agreeing to a four-year, home-and-home with UMass isn’t a great statement about scheduling as an independent in this day and age.

Wish we could have BYU on the schedule every year.

 

[Fishy]

We're at the point in this colossal cluster f--- of realignment misery where adding UMass probably makes the AAC more appealing than it currently is.

 

[DSquiz]

We're at the point in this colossal cluster f--- of realignment misery where adding UMass probably makes the AAC more appealing than it currently is.

...in what way? I literally can't fathom a single thing umass would add to the AAC.

 

[Fishy]

...in what way? I literally can't fathom a single thing umass would add to the AAC.

Road games you could actually drive to. A competent hoop program. A university that doesn't accept coursework done in crayon. A school we actually have history with.

An actual rival.

 

[DSquiz]

Road games you could actually drive to. A competent hoop program. A university that doesn't accept coursework done in crayon. A school we actually have history with.

An actual rival.

That may help UConn a bit but not the conference and not TV revenue at all. If anything the state of their football program would hurt the overall view of the conference which would damage our chances for a jump in money during the next round of TV negotiations.

 

[Fishy]

Here's a tip - none of the teams currently in the AAC help with television revenue. None of the teams who could potentially join the AAC help television revenue. Television revenue is something you should spend roughly zero time worrying about because there isn't any.

And despite version 2.0 of Aresco's fairy tales, there's no great jump coming. But if anything, adding a school in Massachusetts would be a net positive, even by our marginal scale.

 

[UConnJim]

Here's a tip - none of the teams currently in the AAC help with television revenue. None of the teams who could potentially join the AAC help television revenue. Television revenue is something you should spend roughly zero time worrying about because there isn't any.

And despite version 2.0 of Aresco's fairy tales, there's no great jump coming. But if anything, adding a school in Massachusetts would be a net positive, even by our marginal scale.

Completely disagree. In my opinion, TV revenues are going to go up for the AAC. Why? The AAC will produce mediocre TV ratings which is better than what the conference is being paid for. Plus, the OOC scheduling will be somewhat attractive and the home games will be worth something. Look at future OOC scheduling for AAC teams over the next 4 years as of now:

Navy: let's assume Army game is treated separately. They have 2 ND and 2 Air Force home games.

UConn: home games with Army, Virginia, Missouri.

Cincy: future home games with Miami, BYU.

East Carolina: home games with Virginia Tech twice, NC St., BYU, and UNC.

Houston: home games with Vandy, Oklahoma, Louisville, Texas Tech, Arizona.

Memphis: home games with Ole Miss twice, Kansas, UCLA

SMU: home games with Baylor, TCU twice.

Temple: home games with Penn St., Notre Dame, Army

Tulane: home games with Duke, Wake Forest

Tulsa: nothing of note at home.

UCF: home game with Maryland.

USF: home games with Syracuse, Florida St., Illinois, Wisconsin,


Thus, there are about 9 decent out of conference games/ year over the next 4 years. If you take the ACC contract of $20 million per school and assume 2/3 of TV revenues are for football, ESPN is paying about $2 mill/year for each ACC team's home games. So these out of conference games should be worth about $18 mill to the AAC per year alone vs the current total contract of $25 million for all sports. The rest of the games may be worth another $18 to $30 mill in total per year for 54 conference games, a conference championship game, and maybe 10 misc OOC games.

Look at basketball. Big East gets $3 million per school per year and ACC gets about $7 million per school per year. I think the AAC basketball would be worth $2 to $3 million per school per year or another $25 to $30 mill per year. Heck, the AAC performed better and had higher ratings than the Big East.

Back of the envelope, the AAC should get anywhere from $5 to $8 mill per school per year. Of course, if schools leave, all bets are off. In my opinion, conference stability is one of the main reasons the current contract is so low.

As for UMass, they bring absolutely nothing to any conference as they are not popular even in Massachusetts. Heck, they drew maybe 10k for their game against Colorado.

 

[DrG]

FYI, they're expecting a sellout for the homecoming game on Saturday vs. Bowling Green, the first game on campus in three years. A packed 17,000-seat stadium looks a lot better than 10,000 in a 68,000-seat stadium. But they'd better start winning soon.

 

[UConnJim]

FYI, they're expecting a sellout for the homecoming game on Saturday vs. Bowling Green, the first game on campus in three years. A packed 17,000-seat stadium looks a lot better than 10,000 in a 68,000-seat stadium. But they'd better start winning soon.

17k per home game is barely the FBS minimum for average attendance for a season. If you look at the future home schedules, Bowling Green would be a highlight. Honestly, I will be shocked if UMass is playing FBS football in 5 years.

 

[rw005]

Still better than scheduling Buffalo, that is probably the only time I'll compliment UMass.

 

[UConnJim]

Still better than scheduling Buffalo, that is probably the only time I'll compliment UMass.

Except in 5 years, Buffalo will still be part of the MAC in FBS and UMass will be playing FCS football.

 

[Fishy]

Wishful thinking.

As we are now and likely still will be, UMass will be mired in some dead-end group of five conference in five years. The only difference is that they won't mind it.

 

[UConnJim]

Wishful thinking.

As we are now and likely still will be, UMass will be mired in some dead-end group of five conference in five years. The only difference is that they won't mind it.

I guess you haven't looked at the financials of UMass football. Budget projection of revenues of $2.7 million and expenses of $7.8 million. Now they will not have a conference and must schedule home games. FBS rules require two things: 5 home games against FBS opponents and 15k average paid attendance. In 2016, UMass has 1 FBS home game scheduled. I guess they will get a waiver from the NCAA. As for attendance, how do they maintain it with that schedule?

There is limited backing of UMass in Massachusetts and even less backing of UMass football. The Atlantic 10 and Hockey East are fine for UMass sports so there is not need for football to make sure they are in a conference for their other sports.

UMass football is on life support and I don't see how it survives.

 

[billybud]

....

Road games you could actually drive to. A competent hoop program. A university that doesn't accept coursework done in crayon. A school we actually have history with.

An actual rival.

...."road games that you could actually drive to"
...."a school that we have history with"
...."an actual rival"

Gawd! Fishy is starting to sound like me on one of my rants about expansion....a traditionalist.

While we all talk about the drivers of CR and markets, and networks...those three components named by Fishy still are the ones that make this fan's heart beat.

 

[Kolumbo]

I wouldn't dismiss UMass since the state of Mass probably has more recruits than CT. I'm all for a rivalry and further driving those s from chestnut hill down the freaking abyss. A rivalry rotating between the Rent and Foxboro would be more eventful than anything going on in boston.

Regarding survival, UMass needs to try to schedule home games with FBS schools within driving distance to attract the opponents' fans and meet the attendance requirements. UCONN, BC, Temple, RU, SU, Army, Marshall, Buffalo...

 

[nelsonmuntz]

There is not really a good reason not to add UMass at this point. If you thought our hoops schedule was sketchy after the New Year last year, take 3 Louisville games off it and see how it looks. All the AAC financials are going to suck pretty soon unless we can scrape out a few million more per school from a media deal pronto. Tulsa and Tulane were the stupidest decisions in a litany of stupid decisions by this league.

 

[UConnJim]

I wouldn't dismiss UMass since the state of Mass probably has more recruits than CT. I'm all for a rivalry and further driving those s from chestnut hill down the freaking abyss. A rivalry rotating between the Rent and Foxboro would be more eventful than anything going on in boston.

Regarding survival, UMass needs to try to schedule home games with FBS schools within driving distance to attract the opponents' fans and meet the attendance requirements. UCONN, BC, Temple, RU, SU, Army, Marshall, Buffalo...

You missed the point of this thread. It is difficult to schedule for UMass going forward, especially when not in a conference. Also, most teams don't have room for non-conference games after September/early October, so how is UMass going to get home games against decent teams in October/November/early December? By the way, UConn can't get home and homes with former conference mates BC, Rutgers, and Syracuse. How is UMass going to get them?

 

[Pudge]

There is not really a good reason not to add UMass at this point. If you thought our hoops schedule was sketchy after the New Year last year, take 3 Louisville games off it and see how it looks. All the AAC financials are going to suck pretty soon unless we can scrape out a few million more per school from a media deal pronto. Tulsa and Tulane were the stupidest decisions in a litany of stupid decisions by this league.

Tulsa and Tulane make sense in only one pocket: the SMU & Houston wing ... and maybe Memphis ... see the AAC losing a UConn and/or Cincinnati. They saw the need to plug a corridor of markets - all possible football solid - and play for their next 20 years. Add the UCF & USF & ECU wing. That makes a solid next tier League for them. Hang together and gradually they rise (I do think the income will marginally & progressively get better). Maybe one of them get lucky at P5. Like we dream.

Then Old Dominion & UTSA are the next BIG markets with no college football home-team. Ultimately UMass might be elevated within 7 years & Buffalo might too.

I expect the shoe to drop ... and for me, that's the effect that CR will have nationally on Title IX. When the girls wake up ...