It may very well be the case that UConn joins the ACC before the B1G and it certainly should if the ACC is the first of the two conferences to extend an invitation. However, my impression – although the ACC posters can correct me if I am wrong – is that the ACC will likely not pursue further expansion in the hopes that Notre Dame will eventually elect to join full time as the 15th school at which time a 16th school such as UConn would be added. What is the likelihood that Notre Dame will join the ACC full time? It is my impression - although the Notre Dame posters can correct me if I am wrong - that Notre Dame intends to remain independent in football for the forseeable future.
Independence as much as it can be kept is perhaps priority #1 for ND.
But it is much more complicated than it sounds. In the mid-80s, our basketball fans were adamant that we would never be in any conference for basketball. Until we made the deal with the ACC, most of us were certain, diamond hard certain, that we would never be in a conference for football to any degree, in any way, shape or form. And now the ACC is scheduling 5 games per year for us, home and away, rotating equally among all 14. Due to divisional scheduling, we will play Virginia, North Carolina, and Duke more often than Florida State and Clemson play them. We will play Florida State and Clemson more often than Pitt plays them.
Situations change. As the landscape changes, we have had to change.
Here is a key part of the complexity regarding Irish football - the entire athletics department. If being truly independent in football was the only priority, even the undisputed top priority, we would be fully independent in football now and in the BE for basketball and non-revenues. We gave up half of our football independence because the university and the athletics department both want all ND sports, not just football, to be set up as ideally as possible. Accepting mid-major status for basketball and even non-revenues is not acceptable if it can be avoided.
So, we gave up half of our football independence to position the entire athletics department in the best fit for it. That does not mean we are set in 5 years to play 8 conference games and be eligible for the ACC football championship, but it also does not mean we will never do that.
The ACC is not going to try to pressure us or bribe us to change the current status. If we go full member in football, it will be because we have decided it is best all things considered. And that most likely would come from another landscape shift.
If the NCAA changes the rule that requires conferences playing a championship to have divisions that each play a round robin, then the ACC could add a 15th school as a full member in football.