UConn +17 | The Boneyard

UConn +17

Status
Not open for further replies.

Dooley

Done with U-con athletics
Joined
Oct 7, 2012
Messages
9,965
Reaction Score
32,834
I am taking those points! Thank you very much, Vegas. This actually might be the play of Week 1.
 

Dooley

Done with U-con athletics
Joined
Oct 7, 2012
Messages
9,965
Reaction Score
32,834
The only question is whether or not the line will move towards BYU or UCONN. With UCONN's perception being as low as it is right now, maybe waiting could net an extra point or two.
 
Joined
Nov 21, 2012
Messages
4,634
Reaction Score
9,912
The only question is whether or not the line will move towards BYU or UCONN. With UCONN's perception being as low as it is right now, maybe waiting could net an extra point or two.
17 is a key number, +18 or +18.5 do not mean anything really, you do not want to risk it going to +16.
 

Dooley

Done with U-con athletics
Joined
Oct 7, 2012
Messages
9,965
Reaction Score
32,834
17 is a key number, +18 or +18.5 do not mean anything really, you do not want to risk it going to +16.

I'll take the 17 right now. If there's one thing I have learned in college football, gimme points aren't so gimme (ex - extra points). Scores don't follow the same nice-and-neat pattern that they do in the NFL. So if there is a chance UCONN can get MORE points as a home dog in its home opener, I'll take those too! But I'll gobble up these 17 with extreme pleasure.
 

whaler11

Head Happy Hour Coach
Joined
Aug 27, 2011
Messages
44,376
Reaction Score
68,269
The only question is whether or not the line will move towards BYU or UCONN. With UCONN's perception being as low as it is right now, maybe waiting could net an extra point or two.

17 is the highest it's been. It was 15.5 and 16 a couple of places on low limit early lines.
 
Joined
Sep 2, 2011
Messages
595
Reaction Score
1,878
Money line is +625, if Diaco can turn things around UConn fans can make a lot of money.
 
Joined
Aug 24, 2011
Messages
4,162
Reaction Score
10,579
This is a dreadful opening match-up for us. An experienced and mature team with some good skill players returning. I think the defense could really struggle.
 

whaler11

Head Happy Hour Coach
Joined
Aug 27, 2011
Messages
44,376
Reaction Score
68,269
17 point underdogs only win outright 8.5% of the time so +625 isn't too generous. You need to win 16% of the time to break even in the long run at +625.
 

Dooley

Done with U-con athletics
Joined
Oct 7, 2012
Messages
9,965
Reaction Score
32,834
Flat out winning the game and hanging within 17 points are two different things. My opinion: UCONN will hang for 3 Quarters then BYU will pull away late, winning by between 10-14 points. It will be an exciting game and it will be a good way to start the season for our Mushers. Gain some confidence while getting hungrier for Ws.

But it sure would be nice if we got a W! :)
 
Joined
Aug 24, 2011
Messages
4,162
Reaction Score
10,579
We need a few things to happen to win this game:
  • The LBs have to play very well in the new scheme (new guys in a new scheme seems to be asking a lot)
  • We need a couple of big plays on either defense or specials
  • We run the ball effectively (at least 100 yards) to let the young guys on the OL get settled in on their pass blocking
 
Joined
Aug 28, 2011
Messages
8,197
Reaction Score
22,399
Well the market can be wrong. If someone thinks they win 25% of the time it's a good bet.

Risking $25 (roughly the price of admission) to win $150+/- which would pay for the rest of my tickets on the season isn't a terrible bet.

We're always better at home, and at especially at night. We should have beat Michigan last year as 2 TD+/-(?) dogs. We've had other big wins, these guys are hungry and they're going to shock the small part of the world that pays attention to AAC football.

Or I lose $25. Which has no affect at all on my weekend.
 

whaler11

Head Happy Hour Coach
Joined
Aug 27, 2011
Messages
44,376
Reaction Score
68,269
Risking $25 (roughly the price of admission) to win $150+/- which would pay for the rest of my tickets on the season isn't a terrible bet.

We're always better at home, and at especially at night. We should have beat Michigan last year as 2 TD+/-(?) dogs. We've had other big wins, these guys are hungry and they're going to shock the small part of the world that pays attention to AAC football.

Or I lose $25. Which has no affect at all on my weekend.

I'm not trying to talk anyone out of it. I just shared some of the math and history on 17 point dogs.

Everything you listed is priced into the +17. So while it might still be wrong - you don't have any angle that isn't priced into the market.
 
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
5,186
Reaction Score
10,668
So, uh, does anyone know of any, er, dependable sites one could, ah, use to make, um, legitimate wagers?
 

HuskyHawk

The triumphant return of the Blues Brothers.
Joined
Sep 12, 2011
Messages
31,859
Reaction Score
81,475
FWIW - UConn had been the best team against the spread in the country as a home dog since 2009. 10-2-1.

UConn is the Rodney Dangerfield of football for sure.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Online statistics

Members online
569
Guests online
3,495
Total visitors
4,064

Forum statistics

Threads
155,765
Messages
4,030,816
Members
9,863
Latest member
leepaul


Top Bottom