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I think I speak for all of us when I say I'm thrilled with the way this season has gone so far, and I did not expect to be 11-3 as of January 10th. However, it remains unclear just how good this team is. Are they top five in the Big East? Top eight? Bottom six? I'd say all five are legitimate possibilities.
The case that they are a top five team is that there's really no well-rounded teams after Louisville, Syracuse, and Notre Dame. As much as we like to pin-point our own weaknesses, we have to realize college basketball is a diminished product, and often times you can win a lot of games with good defense, hard work, and excellent guard play. UConn has all three, and outside of the three teams I mentioned, nobody in the Big East is head and shoulders ahead of UConn. It's a chore for Georgetown to even score points - I'd argue that UConn's better than them right now. You don't lose by nearly 30 at home to a shaky Pittsburgh team unless you have some major problems that are going to continue to crop up throughout the year. This team will tumble out of the top 25 next week, as they should. Cincinnati is built similarly to UConn, and they have a worse resume as of right now. Their OOC schedule would make Syracuse blush, and since December 27th they've lost three of four, with two coming at home and the other coming to a mediocre St. Johns team. Pittsburgh had a nice win the other day, but they also have a loss to Rutgers on their resume.
You could certainly make the case that a UConn team that beat Michigan State, could have easily pulled out victories against New Mexico and N.C. State, and beats Marquette on the road without a couple bad calls, is actually one of the five best teams in the conference. Granted, this probably has more to do with the Big East being down relative to recent years than it has to do with UConn playing brilliant basketball, but it would not shock me if this team won 11 or 12 games and finished among the top five.
On the other hand, UConn's frontcourt isn't far beyond the D-2 level on certain nights, and when the guards don't bring it, they can literally lose to just about anybody in the country as we saw against Quinnipiac.
I will say that as of right now, I think UConn's closer to a top five team than a bottom five team. I've really enjoyed what I've seen the last couple weeks, even in a loss to Marquette: the offensive sets are begginning to become more innovative, Deandre is blossoming, Boatright's jump shot has been money, and the big man who can defend, rebound, and hit a layup has finall emerged in Enosch Wolf. On top of that, there probably aren't five guards in the country who are playing at a higher level than Shabazz Napier. He's scoring 17 points per game, grabbing four boards, dishing four assists, and shooting 44% from the floor and 39% from three. His defense has solid, and while he'll never be as charismic as Kemba, his leadership has improved from what I can tell and his team really responds to him.
I agree with the notion that Napier-Boatright-Giffey-Daniels-Wolf is our best lineup right now, and I don't think you can argue otherwise. Omar Calhoun is probably slightly better offensively than Giffey, but Giffey is a better shooter, defender, and most importantly, a much better rebounder. I wouldn't start Giffey, because you don't want to hurt Omar's confidence, but I'd certainly like to see this lineup at least 15 minutes a game assuming nobody gets in foul trouble.
Meanwhile, Wolf's last three outings include a 2 point, 9 rebound performance against Washington, 6 points and 7 rebounds against Marquette, and 8 points and 7 rebounds against DePaul. These aren't exactly earth-shattering numbers, but on this team they are invaluable. He's also played good post defense, and has upped his game against stiffer competition. The development in Wolf's game makes me feel like we can make some noise in the Big East this year.
Which brings me to these next three games:
Sat, @ ND - I wouldn't be shocked if we were double digit underdogs in this game. I think Notre Dame will be the best team we've played this season to date. They are a sound defensive team, they're well-coached, they move the ball as well as anybody in the country, and they can light it up from behind the three point line. Further, they are extremely difficult to beat at home, and Cooley is just the type of animal on the glass that I dread playing with this roster. If that guy doesn't have at least fifteen rebounds it will be the upset of the century. Notre Dame took Kentucky behind the woodshed and beat them senseless, and Kentucky is almost certainly better than us despite their struggles this season. If I was coaching a young team like UConn, I can tell you this is the very last team I'd want to play, because they make you pay for gambling, you have to defend at a high level for the full 35 seconds, they don't beat themselves, and their sets are more complex than what we usually see. IMO, this Notre Dame team is very similar to the 2010-11 team that we lost to twice. Although they are infuriating to play, this is the type of game that really helps you develop as a team, specifically defensively, because ND teams are generally composed of 21-22 year-olds who are familar with the ins and outs of the Big East and can see plays unfolding before they happen.
Personally, I'd be more impressed if we won this game than I would be if we beat Louisville the following Monday. Outside of Napier, and to a lesser extent, Boatright, this is still a young team getting their feet wet, playing major minutes in the Big East for the first time. I think UConn has more talented players than Notre Dame, but the Irish are probably the most cohesive unit we'll play all season in terms of the way they move the ball, communicate, and interact with each other on the court. This has all the makings of a classic Big East humbling, where the team heads in thinking they're a little bit better than they are only to to get run off the court by a more experienced team. I hope I'm wrong, but I anticipate ND will be 9-10 point favorites and if you made me bet my life on the game my money would not be with the Huskies.
Monday 1/14, vs. Louisville - Call me crazy, but this is a game I actually think we can win, especially now that Chane Behanan is unlikely to play. Now, I've stated several times that I believe Louisville is the best team in the country. Their team is basically everything we wanted our team to be last year - Peyton Siva runs the offense and annoys the out of opposing teams guards, Russ Smith is the chucker, Gorgui Dieng protects the rim and rebounds, and Chane Behanan is their big body that other fours can't matchup with inside. Now that Behanan isn't there, our most glaring weakness won't be as easy to exploit. Deandre Daniels and Niels Giffey, two kids who are stick figures by comparison, were going to have a nightmarish evening trying to guard him and box him out. Behanan would have beaten the out of us on the glass, gotten everybody in foul trouble, and deflated our momentum every time we needed a stop.
The element of the press is what makes this game so fascinating. If Louisville mucks it up and makes it a half-court affair, it's tough to see us winning. Even without Behanan, they would suffucate us defensively, kill us on the glass, and live at the foul line. For as quick as our two guards are, Louisville's guards might be the only two in the country who are actually quicker. Shabazz Napier has not had a whole lot of success in the past staying in front of Peyton Siva, and Russ Smith is basically a taller version of Boatright at this point in his career.
But we all know that isn't how Louisville likes to play: they like to press for 40 minutes, get in your face, and make you uncomfortable. Shabazz and Boatright, though, are probably two of the toughest guards in the country to turn over in the open court. Several times this season they've managed to navigate through multiple defenders, similar to Kemba on multiple occasions during the 2010-11 season. Put simply, UConn is one of the last teams you want to press. If Louisville does choose to press, it will be a fast paced game with a lot of turnovers, layups, and exhausted players. For our benefit, hopefully there are 17,000 strong in the stands to give our guys that extra boost they'll need to compete with such a great team. If Wolf can battle in the paint with Dieng and stay out of foul trouble, you have to think we have a chance.
Sat 1/19, @ Pitt - Just another Big East war, although I think this is the most winnable game of the three. Pitt has some talent, but much like last year, they're a little rugged, and their pieces don't really mesh. It seems to me that Dixon got a little bit of a recruiting bump for all the success he had a few years ago, and he's having a difficult time managing the talent as well as he managed the Levance Fields of the world (kids who would be 25 by the time they graduated). Regardless, UConn will likely be 6-7 point underdogs, and you know how fired up Pitt gets to play us. The "zoo" will be there and ready go, and I'm sure it will turn into a 55-50 knock-down, drag-out street fight.
It's more than conceivable to see UConn dropping all three of these games - sure, UConn's struggled at times this season, but they haven't really struggled. With every young team, there are usually series of games were you wonder what the hell the coach is doing, if they even practice together, etc. My gut tells me these three games could be tough on UConn fans, and multiple remotes could be broken in my living room. I'd be more than happy if UConn could muster a 1-2 in this set, but I'm not overly optimistic. Hopefully Shabazz does his best in preparing these kids for what to expect, but you don't really know until you take an elbow to the forehead and no foul is called. It's not hard to envision Deandre Daniels and Omar Calhoun sitting on a trainers table ten days from now at 1-4 in the conference wondering what the hell just hit them. But as any great player would tell you, you don't get to the mountaintop without occasionally being humbled by more physical, experienced players along the way. It happened with the 2010-11 team and they responded by taking their anger out on everybody in March. It happened last year and most of them ended up transferring and lashing out on social media after the game. Given our limited depth and experience, it seems inevtiable that we will hit the wall this season - the only question is how the team responds.
The case that they are a top five team is that there's really no well-rounded teams after Louisville, Syracuse, and Notre Dame. As much as we like to pin-point our own weaknesses, we have to realize college basketball is a diminished product, and often times you can win a lot of games with good defense, hard work, and excellent guard play. UConn has all three, and outside of the three teams I mentioned, nobody in the Big East is head and shoulders ahead of UConn. It's a chore for Georgetown to even score points - I'd argue that UConn's better than them right now. You don't lose by nearly 30 at home to a shaky Pittsburgh team unless you have some major problems that are going to continue to crop up throughout the year. This team will tumble out of the top 25 next week, as they should. Cincinnati is built similarly to UConn, and they have a worse resume as of right now. Their OOC schedule would make Syracuse blush, and since December 27th they've lost three of four, with two coming at home and the other coming to a mediocre St. Johns team. Pittsburgh had a nice win the other day, but they also have a loss to Rutgers on their resume.
You could certainly make the case that a UConn team that beat Michigan State, could have easily pulled out victories against New Mexico and N.C. State, and beats Marquette on the road without a couple bad calls, is actually one of the five best teams in the conference. Granted, this probably has more to do with the Big East being down relative to recent years than it has to do with UConn playing brilliant basketball, but it would not shock me if this team won 11 or 12 games and finished among the top five.
On the other hand, UConn's frontcourt isn't far beyond the D-2 level on certain nights, and when the guards don't bring it, they can literally lose to just about anybody in the country as we saw against Quinnipiac.
I will say that as of right now, I think UConn's closer to a top five team than a bottom five team. I've really enjoyed what I've seen the last couple weeks, even in a loss to Marquette: the offensive sets are begginning to become more innovative, Deandre is blossoming, Boatright's jump shot has been money, and the big man who can defend, rebound, and hit a layup has finall emerged in Enosch Wolf. On top of that, there probably aren't five guards in the country who are playing at a higher level than Shabazz Napier. He's scoring 17 points per game, grabbing four boards, dishing four assists, and shooting 44% from the floor and 39% from three. His defense has solid, and while he'll never be as charismic as Kemba, his leadership has improved from what I can tell and his team really responds to him.
I agree with the notion that Napier-Boatright-Giffey-Daniels-Wolf is our best lineup right now, and I don't think you can argue otherwise. Omar Calhoun is probably slightly better offensively than Giffey, but Giffey is a better shooter, defender, and most importantly, a much better rebounder. I wouldn't start Giffey, because you don't want to hurt Omar's confidence, but I'd certainly like to see this lineup at least 15 minutes a game assuming nobody gets in foul trouble.
Meanwhile, Wolf's last three outings include a 2 point, 9 rebound performance against Washington, 6 points and 7 rebounds against Marquette, and 8 points and 7 rebounds against DePaul. These aren't exactly earth-shattering numbers, but on this team they are invaluable. He's also played good post defense, and has upped his game against stiffer competition. The development in Wolf's game makes me feel like we can make some noise in the Big East this year.
Which brings me to these next three games:
Sat, @ ND - I wouldn't be shocked if we were double digit underdogs in this game. I think Notre Dame will be the best team we've played this season to date. They are a sound defensive team, they're well-coached, they move the ball as well as anybody in the country, and they can light it up from behind the three point line. Further, they are extremely difficult to beat at home, and Cooley is just the type of animal on the glass that I dread playing with this roster. If that guy doesn't have at least fifteen rebounds it will be the upset of the century. Notre Dame took Kentucky behind the woodshed and beat them senseless, and Kentucky is almost certainly better than us despite their struggles this season. If I was coaching a young team like UConn, I can tell you this is the very last team I'd want to play, because they make you pay for gambling, you have to defend at a high level for the full 35 seconds, they don't beat themselves, and their sets are more complex than what we usually see. IMO, this Notre Dame team is very similar to the 2010-11 team that we lost to twice. Although they are infuriating to play, this is the type of game that really helps you develop as a team, specifically defensively, because ND teams are generally composed of 21-22 year-olds who are familar with the ins and outs of the Big East and can see plays unfolding before they happen.
Personally, I'd be more impressed if we won this game than I would be if we beat Louisville the following Monday. Outside of Napier, and to a lesser extent, Boatright, this is still a young team getting their feet wet, playing major minutes in the Big East for the first time. I think UConn has more talented players than Notre Dame, but the Irish are probably the most cohesive unit we'll play all season in terms of the way they move the ball, communicate, and interact with each other on the court. This has all the makings of a classic Big East humbling, where the team heads in thinking they're a little bit better than they are only to to get run off the court by a more experienced team. I hope I'm wrong, but I anticipate ND will be 9-10 point favorites and if you made me bet my life on the game my money would not be with the Huskies.
Monday 1/14, vs. Louisville - Call me crazy, but this is a game I actually think we can win, especially now that Chane Behanan is unlikely to play. Now, I've stated several times that I believe Louisville is the best team in the country. Their team is basically everything we wanted our team to be last year - Peyton Siva runs the offense and annoys the out of opposing teams guards, Russ Smith is the chucker, Gorgui Dieng protects the rim and rebounds, and Chane Behanan is their big body that other fours can't matchup with inside. Now that Behanan isn't there, our most glaring weakness won't be as easy to exploit. Deandre Daniels and Niels Giffey, two kids who are stick figures by comparison, were going to have a nightmarish evening trying to guard him and box him out. Behanan would have beaten the out of us on the glass, gotten everybody in foul trouble, and deflated our momentum every time we needed a stop.
The element of the press is what makes this game so fascinating. If Louisville mucks it up and makes it a half-court affair, it's tough to see us winning. Even without Behanan, they would suffucate us defensively, kill us on the glass, and live at the foul line. For as quick as our two guards are, Louisville's guards might be the only two in the country who are actually quicker. Shabazz Napier has not had a whole lot of success in the past staying in front of Peyton Siva, and Russ Smith is basically a taller version of Boatright at this point in his career.
But we all know that isn't how Louisville likes to play: they like to press for 40 minutes, get in your face, and make you uncomfortable. Shabazz and Boatright, though, are probably two of the toughest guards in the country to turn over in the open court. Several times this season they've managed to navigate through multiple defenders, similar to Kemba on multiple occasions during the 2010-11 season. Put simply, UConn is one of the last teams you want to press. If Louisville does choose to press, it will be a fast paced game with a lot of turnovers, layups, and exhausted players. For our benefit, hopefully there are 17,000 strong in the stands to give our guys that extra boost they'll need to compete with such a great team. If Wolf can battle in the paint with Dieng and stay out of foul trouble, you have to think we have a chance.
Sat 1/19, @ Pitt - Just another Big East war, although I think this is the most winnable game of the three. Pitt has some talent, but much like last year, they're a little rugged, and their pieces don't really mesh. It seems to me that Dixon got a little bit of a recruiting bump for all the success he had a few years ago, and he's having a difficult time managing the talent as well as he managed the Levance Fields of the world (kids who would be 25 by the time they graduated). Regardless, UConn will likely be 6-7 point underdogs, and you know how fired up Pitt gets to play us. The "zoo" will be there and ready go, and I'm sure it will turn into a 55-50 knock-down, drag-out street fight.
It's more than conceivable to see UConn dropping all three of these games - sure, UConn's struggled at times this season, but they haven't really struggled. With every young team, there are usually series of games were you wonder what the hell the coach is doing, if they even practice together, etc. My gut tells me these three games could be tough on UConn fans, and multiple remotes could be broken in my living room. I'd be more than happy if UConn could muster a 1-2 in this set, but I'm not overly optimistic. Hopefully Shabazz does his best in preparing these kids for what to expect, but you don't really know until you take an elbow to the forehead and no foul is called. It's not hard to envision Deandre Daniels and Omar Calhoun sitting on a trainers table ten days from now at 1-4 in the conference wondering what the hell just hit them. But as any great player would tell you, you don't get to the mountaintop without occasionally being humbled by more physical, experienced players along the way. It happened with the 2010-11 team and they responded by taking their anger out on everybody in March. It happened last year and most of them ended up transferring and lashing out on social media after the game. Given our limited depth and experience, it seems inevtiable that we will hit the wall this season - the only question is how the team responds.
