The Official 2015 Mets Thread | The Boneyard

The Official 2015 Mets Thread

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Seems there are a few Mets fans here so I thought it might make sense to have a spot for anything generically Mets related....

To kick it off.....any predictions on Harvey's #'s this season? Starts, Win/Loss, ERA?
 

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For the first time in a long time I am excited for baseball season because we appear to have a legitimate pitching staff from starters through the back of the pen. Of course, the day after my brother and I shared this sentiment last week we were greeted with the news of Wheeler's injury, which also confirmed our relief that we didn't offload Gee in the off-season. As Mets fans we know that devastating injuries are one thing we can count on.

I'm optimistic about Harvey based on the reports so far but, for fear of tempting even more of the above fate, I'm not making any predictions. We've only recently gotten my Metsoloft prescription down to a manageable level and I'm trying to wean myself off entirely.
 

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I go back and forth between thinking ~88 wins (and stealing one of the wild cards) is possible and thinking they'll just stumble to ~79 wins again.

My main concern is that the team just isn't good enough to absorb one of the pitchers regressing or not being effective for a full season. deGrom is likely to have his hiccups and Harvey will basically just replace Wheeler from last year (assuming he isn't just automatically 2013 Harvey). If Colon slips a little, Niese has any sort of recurring shoulder issues, etc. things could be worse than most anticipate.

Having said that, these are all question marks that could just as easily not happen and then they win 89 games. Who the hell knows. lavuuk153 and I got one of the 10 game packs so hopefully they do well and it turns into a good investment.
 
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I'm excited for this season as well. Duda ripped a bomb off of CC yesterday which gives me hope that he's able to hit off lefties more this year. Niese said his shoulder feels better than ever and he's looked great. Harvey and DeGrom have looked unhittable.

Only thing that worries me is Collins. He already wants to play Cuddyer in LF which is a huge mistake as it keeps Granderson in RF where he has no range (also the fact that Cuddyer is deaf in his left ear makes it more comical) and having Colon start opening day.

You want to have the Nats take you serious yet you throw Colon out there? What kind of message is that?
 

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Eh - the opening day starter is a non issue. It's largely symbolic and has virtually no impact on a 162 game season. They want to line up Harvey to go for the second home game so they can sell that out after selling out the home opener? Won't hurt their record overall most likely, and if it generates an extra quarter million dollars in game day revenue it's fine by me.

Realistically, the outfield is the best center fielder in the game and 2 guys who aren't great fielders. If Cuddyer is more comfortable in LF and Granderson is more comfortable in RF, I'm fine with that as it is even though Grandy has a noodle arm.

As long as Collins doesn't start playing Mayberry against righties in an effort to "get him going" I think I'll be fine.
 
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I know it was just one spring training start.....but isn't Montero a better option in the rotation than Gee? Are they just babying Montero along like they seem to do with every young pitcher?
 

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Starting him in the rotation is just the easy way of limiting the innings on Montero's arm. Montero probably gets spot starts when they play 11+ days without a day off (to protect Harvey/deGrom and keep Niese's shoulder from falling apart). Plus the only way you're getting anything of remote value back for Gee is if you get him innings early and he does well.

If Gee doesn't pitch well and Montero does, you might see them flip flop. If both pitch well, I think you see Gee traded. If neither pitch well then make way for Matz/Syndergaard.

Long story short, I don't necessarily see Gee in the rotation come July one way or the other. He's a great teammate with a great attitude. I hope he pitches well and finds a nice gig as a 4/5 starter for another team without so many young arms, but it probably just isn't in the cards with the Mets (barring further injuries - knock on wood).
 
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One player I keep hearing associated with moving to the Mets is Troy Tulowitski. Does anyone want him? He's only 30 but he has a big contract and his health is a concern...and they'd probably have to give up someone pretty promising to get him. I just don't see how he's the missing piece here.
 

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One player I keep hearing associated with moving to the Mets is Troy Tulowitski. Does anyone want him? He's only 30 but he has a big contract and his health is a concern...and they'd probably have to give up someone pretty promising to get him. I just don't see how he's the missing piece here.

It's just people who want to see the Mets spend a lot of money regardless of whether it's a smart baseball move.

I don't think the Mets make the playoffs this year, but they do have pitching. IMO, Nats/LAD and either StL/Pitt take their divisions and Marlins and whichever of Pirates/Cards ends up as the WC fill out the playoffs, but I'd love to see a big market team make the playoffs with a sub $100 mill payroll. Especially if it's the Mets that make it while the Yankees don't.
 

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Every pitcher these days is more of a health risk than just about any position player. How bad is this team is deGrom or Harvey hurts their elbow this year?

With him in the lineup they are a playoff team which is more than you could say for any team they've had since 2008. It doesn't even matter if he only plays 120 game per season. In 91 games last year he put up an allstar level WAR. That's park adjusted and it's a counting stat, so it's not like he was just on pace for an allstar season. His value in 91 games was at the level of an allstar over a full season.

If you get lucky and he stays healthy for a full year you have an MVP candidate and probably make the playoffs. It's a roll of the dice... but aren't you tired of watching them play it safe all the way to 75 wins?

Of course we don't know what would need to be sent to Colorado to get him. My overall point is that if he was a free agent, I would give him the 6/$114 he's owed. Frankly, what they would need to send Colorado's way deals too much in hypothetical for it to be worth it.

These days, a solid player going to cost you 4/$60M, which of course the Wilpons won't pay with the payroll where it is (joke's on us - that's what they gave Granderson who is basically a league average player at best).

I don't give a damn what their payroll is. I do think it's absurd that a team in the largest market has consistently won 75 games and their payroll is at roughly 65% of what it would be with owners that are fit to own a team in NYC.

/rant

p.s. I can and will turn anything about this team into a rant about the Wilpons if I type long enough :)
 
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I don't care about the payroll in the way that I feel like I'm writing checks out of my own bank account and just being frugal. I just don't want them to spend money on stupid contracts that end up saddling them and creating long periods of mediocrity. If it will help them? Spend the money. I'm not sure Tulo is that smart a spend (especially combined with having to give up a young arm to get him). Just look at the Yankees with Texiera. I could totally see Tulo in that sort of role/production with money just flying out the window down the line.
 

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All I know is if Tulo was a free agent right now he would probably be able to get a comparable contract to what he has remaining. He might even get more $ than that, though probably not more years. Might even get 5/$114 instead of 6/$114. Either way, he's good enough to warrant the contract despite his injury concerns, IMO.


Edit: I have a feeling that a trade for Tulo would be a financial breakeven in year one just based off of the season tickets and other packages they would have sold up front. If the team is actually competitive down the stretch it's easily a net positive as they'd be close to capacity for most games in August and September.

Mets fans are absolute suckers. We live for false hope. Tulo got hurt at the ASB and they faded? Well they'll get them next year so I'll renew my ticket package for 2016.

If ownership shows a willingness to invest in the team, the fans will show up/tune in. It's absolutely mind boggling that they are sitting on this team instead of investing in it. I just don't see any way they wouldn't be profitable with a $150 million payroll.
 
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1-0.

6 IP, 3 hits, 1 BB, 8 K's and 1 earned run for Big Sexy?! Outdueling Scherzer on opening day? #officiallyexcited
 
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1-0.

6 IP, 3 hits, 1 BB, 8 K's and 1 earned run for Big Sexy?! Outdueling Scherzer on opening day? #officiallyexcited

You need to thank Ugla and Desmond for this one or else who knows if you even get a hit off Scherzer! lol Nice win nonetheless
 

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You need to thank Ugla and Desmond for this one or else who knows if you even get a hit off Scherzer! lol Nice win nonetheless
All I know is that 0.6% of the way through the season the Mets are in first place and the Nats can't play fundamentally sound baseball.
 
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Life long Met fan (since 1967 that's as far back as I can remember).
I'm hoping this is the start of the upswing-like 1984.
Starting pitching should keep us in most games. I'm in no rush to push Gee or Niese out the door. If we can get a piece later in the season -maybe.

If we are going to really hang in a race we have to hit. No throwing away good pitching performances by not scoring 3-4 runs.

Hoping Cuddyer can do for this team what Todd Zeile and Ray Knight did for their respective clubs.
Need Flores and Murphy to just be able to make the routine plays. Have Matt Reynolds in reserve just in case.

Also don't sleep on Ceasar Puello he could help as the season goes on(glad he cleared waviers).

Realistically the Mets need at least one more big bat in my mind.


Still have Herrera and farther down Rosario as replacements as soon as next season. With Conforto and Nimmo on the way.

Bounce back year for Granderson would be huge now that Kevin Long is on board.

Need the bullpen to just do their job-can't pitch Torres 80 games a year again. Wouldn't mind seeing Familia take the reigns as the closer (he gets a shot now with Mejia on the DL and who knows when Parnell comes back.).

Hoping for 83-85 wins this year.

Besides the Huskies the Mets are my passion. Look forward to a fun year and some good Mets talk.
 
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I told a guy at work today that I'm shooting on the high side. I like the chemistry and what I see of Wrights leadership. I'm gunning for 89 wins.
 

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I would have guessed 86 wins before Wheeler went down but that was due in part to assuming someone in the rotation would miss a large part of the season. Since he's done, I'd say low to mid 80s is reasonable. With bounce back years from Wright and Granderson plus a healthy Cuddyer, I could see upper 80s (this also assumes Duda repeats his 2014 season and d'Arnaud looks like he did after getting sent down last year).
 
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I'm about as big a fan as they come...I'm saying 85 as the medium, 83-87 likely.
 
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I told a guy at work today that I'm shooting on the high side. I like the chemistry and what I see of Wrights leadership. I'm gunning for 89 wins.

Well at least he is doing something for that 20 million they are wasting on him.
 

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Well at least he is doing something for that 20 million they are wasting on him.
In 2012 and 2013 Wright had an OPS+ of 144 and 156. Last year he played hurt most of the year and still managed to be right around the league average at 101. If he manages to bounce back to even the 115-125 range then $20 million, while a little high, would hardly be considered wasted money IMO. He his balls harder and farther during this Spring than I saw him hit all of last year so I'm hopeful his drop in performance was in fact due to his shoulder.

Any of the next 3 years could become very dicey though with him still making $20 million. The following 2 years (36 and 37 years old) he is only making $15 and $12 million. If current salary trends are any prediction, he'll just need to be a league average player at that point to justify that money. With the huge contracts that are being dished out for prime players, you're likely to see a lot more $25 million per year guys than you can imagine.

The Dodgers payroll is $275 million this year. Remember when people cried about the Yankees spending $220 10 years ago? Those days are over.
 
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In 2012 and 2013 Wright had an OPS+ of 144 and 156. Last year he played hurt most of the year and still managed to be right around the league average at 101. If he manages to bounce back to even the 115-125 range then $20 million, while a little high, would hardly be considered wasted money IMO. He his balls harder and farther during this Spring than I saw him hit all of last year so I'm hopeful his drop in performance was in fact due to his shoulder.

Any of the next 3 years could become very dicey though with him still making $20 million. The following 2 years (36 and 37 years old) he is only making $15 and $12 million. If current salary trends are any prediction, he'll just need to be a league average player at that point to justify that money. With the huge contracts that are being dished out for prime players, you're likely to see a lot more $25 million per year guys than you can imagine.

The Dodgers payroll is $275 million this year. Remember when people cried about the Yankees spending $220 10 years ago? Those days are over.

His last four seasons he has averaged this: BA: .285 Runs: 67 HR: 15 RBI: 69

And that was his age 28-31 years, the prime years for a players career.
 
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His last four seasons he has averaged this: BA: .285 Runs: 67 HR: 15 RBI: 69

And that was his age 28-31 years, the prime years for a players career.

Well stats can be misleading...if you include the year prior to this stretch the averages go up. Also, I could say that if you looked at his stats the 4 seasons before his "I'm going to play through a should injury season" last year then they look much better: 20.5 HR, 75 R, 79 RBI, 289/.371/.487 for a .858 OPS. Those numbers from 3B are worth 20M. His biggest issue has been staying healthy enough to play 140+ games.
 
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