The next dominoes (January 30 edition)

[shizzle787]

Without further ado let's start at the top. The SEC is expanding to 16, but I think Texas and Oklahoma join in 2024 instead of 2025. Also, I think the league finally goes to a 20-game conference schedule for basketball.

There are some rumors that adding Washington and Oregon would net the B1G more per school, according to Matt Brown. Ultimately, it looks like the league is staying put for at least the next 4-5 years IMO to just breathe. There is no rush to add Washington and Oregon as the SEC doesn't want either. Also, there are rumors the league goes to a 22-game conference schedule in conjunction with losing their two conference challenges. I think it happens (unfortunately, as a Big East fan).

The ACC is just minding its business.

The Pac-12 has a Southern California problem. I don't think the Big 12 will add SDSU, but the Pac-12 needs a school in SoCal. SDSU isn't going to make Cal, Stanford, or Washington smile, but they will tolerate the former. It makes a ton of sense logistically to get a 12th school. Here comes SMU.

The Big 12 at this point is not going to be able to raid the Pac-12, but the former has opportunity to add Gonzaga as a standalone piece as the Pac-12 balks on the Zags. The Big 12 makes the move to go to 13 Olympic sports teams.

With the other five major basketball leagues at 12+ schools, the Big East has a dilemma on its hands: keep the double round robin and or add one school that will likely net the league more bids on average and increase inventory. The league votes for option B and adds Saint Louis.

The Mountain West is breathing a sigh of relief as it only loses one member. To replace SDSU, the league adds UTEP. However, the MW goes one step further. With Gonzaga and BYU now gone from their league, St. Mary's is in a precarious spot, and the MW has an opportunity to finish off a rival league and get to 12 schools for basketball. MW-St. Mary's marriage it is.

The AAC at this point is at 13. Army says no, and then so do Air Force and Colorado State (again). The league adds Texas State to get to 14 and four Texas schools to keep Navy happy.

After the departure of Saint Louis, the Atlantic 10 looks around and decides to stay at 14.

The WCC at this point is reeling. Following the departure of its three biggest members, it decides to invite Seattle and Cal Baptist to stay at 9.

The Sun Belt is now at 13. It invites Missouri State to get to 14.

The MAC stays content at 12.

At this point, C-USA is down to 9 schools. It adds Tarleton State for all sports and then adds NDSU and SDSU for football only.

The Missouri Valley is back to 11 and decides to add growing St. Thomas to get back to 12 and renew the even public/private split.

At this point, the Ivy, Big West, Southern, Big Sky, CAA, AE, Patriot, and MEAC stay put and grab the popcorn.

The Horizon is up next. It adds Bellarmine effective July 1, 2024 in order for the school to complete its transitionary period.

The MAAC adds Wagner to get to 12. Wagner joins the Big South/OVC football alliance.

Around this point, we have two schools decide Division 1 is not for them anymore: Chicago State (NAIA) and Presbyterian (Division 3).

The Big South replaces Presbyterian with Queens to stay at 9.

The NEC replaces Wagner with D2 Le Moyne to get back to 9.

The SWAC finally makes it move on Tennessee State to get to 13.

This is where the drama truly begins. The WAC/ASUN FBS dream never gets off the ground due to lack of access and CFP money among other things. The Southland sees the WAC faltering and offers the four remaining Texas schools (UTA, UTRGV, SFA, and Abilene Christian) a cozy home. They accept in tandem to bring the Southland to 14 members all in Texas or Louisiana.

At this point, the Summit has 9 members. It invites Grand Canyon, Utah Valley, Southern Utah, and Utah Tech to create a western wing and kill off the WAC. The schools accept.

Western Illinois decides the Summit is not geographically-friendly anymore and joins the OVC to give that league 10 members.

The A-Sun adds D2 West Florida to get back to 10 members and keeps Southern Utah and Utah Tech for a 7-team A-Sun football league.

This leaves Division 1 with 362 schools and 31 conferences.

 

[bobbyinaz]

The PAC may have bigger problems on their hands than deciding whether to add SDSU or SMU.

If the tweets from the last couple days are accurate that the PAC is only going to get around $25MM/school thru Amazon and other streaming services the corner schools may start to get restless.

The thought was if the PAC money & exposure were the same as the B12 then Colorado, Utah and the AZ schools would likely stay the course. If the PAC money is significantly less and most of the games are on Amazon or another platform, Colorado & Utah at a minimum might want to see if the grass is greener in the B12. UofA & ASU may want to stay hitched to the PAC because so many of their students come from the West Coast they may feel the need to keep that bond in place.

Something to keep an eye on as more details about PAC rights come into view

 

[shizzle787]

The PAC may have bigger problems on their hands than deciding whether to add SDSU or SMU.

If the tweets from the last couple days are accurate that the PAC is only going to get around $25MM/school thru Amazon and other streaming services the corner schools may start to get restless.

The thought was if the PAC money & exposure were the same as the B12 then Colorado, Utah and the AZ schools would likely stay the course. If the PAC money is significantly less and most of the games are on Amazon or another platform, Colorado & Utah at a minimum might want to see if the grass is greener in the B12. UofA & ASU may want to stay hitched to the PAC because so many of their students come from the West Coast they may feel the need to keep that bond in place.

Something to keep an eye on as more details about PAC rights come into view

Those rumors are from the Monty show. They are not true. They’ve had multiple rumors prior that didn’t pan out. Utah and Colorado do not want to be associated with what they consider hick Big 12 schools.

 

[TheCatsLair]

Colorado's and Utah's ego and arrogance could be their downfall if the Arizona schools jump to the Big 12 without them. There only option, ironically, would be to join the ACC a southern hick conference.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

If I'm a four corner school, I make the move to the B12 now. Grab a chair while you can...

Better football, better basketball, better exposure and more money. And stability. See ya!

 

[bobbyinaz]

Those rumors are from the Monty show. They are not true. They’ve had multiple rumors prior that didn’t pan out. Utah and Colorado do not want to be associated with what they consider hick Big 12 schools.

Colorado and Utah want what every school wants. Stability and the most money possible.

The PAC may not offer either of those to any of its members right now.

We know that Oregon & Washington have already reached out to the B1G and it's likely that Stanford and Cal have as well. Not that there is an immediate exit coming for any of them, but the fact that your 4 biggest remaining "names" are searching for a way out is not a good look for potential networks.

We also know that the PAC has not been able to close on a rights deal with anyone yet. It's not just the recent tweets but there have been other people like John Wilner who have reported the numbers being offered are less than expected and that a big piece of the pie may end up with someone like Amazon.

With FOX being willing to increase their value of the B12 deal with P5 additions, now is the time for the corner schools to explore what may be on the other side of the fence.

Maybe the B12 number grows to $35-38MM/year with the addition of a few PAC schools. I don't think the PAC gets to that number in any new deal they sign. If so, they would've had a deal with someone already