shizzle787
King Shizzle DCCLXXXVII of the Cesspool
- Joined
- Oct 19, 2015
- Messages
- 11,965
- Reaction Score
- 18,479
2023 is upon us and so is the next edition of dominoes. I'm stealing a few of my predictions from Matt Brown:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/re...0591371409
The first moves will be non-moves: the SEC, ACC, Big 12, and ACC all stay put.
Matt has Gonzaga and SDSU moving to the Pac-12. I will go with this but add the following: the league will add Air Force as a football-only member to counter balance Gonzaga and keep the 9-game football schedule. Air Force is a nationally relevant brand as a service academy. Their Olympic sports home will be revealed shortly.
The next league I believe will make a move is the Big East for two reasons: more inventory for the next TV deal and increased NCAA bids. The current double round robin format is great but it hurts the league's chances of gaining maximum bids. Adding one school and keeping the 20-game schedule would likely gain the league half a bid a year as long as the addition would be at least a middle of the pack school; enter Saint Louis. The Bilikens are in a market not tapped by the Big East and would help the league fill out the map in the Midwest. Saint Louis is one of the strongest programs in the Atlantic 10, which has served as a feeder league for the Big East recently.
As a result of the departures of Gonzaga and BYU, the WCC will go hunting: they add Grand Canyon and Seattle. Matt seems to like Cal Baptist over Seattle, but I think the later wins out due to their being several teams in California already and none in Washington state if Gonzaga leaves.
The Atlantic 10 could stay put at 14 but I have a feeling they will go to 16. Two east coast programs stand out as additions: College of Charleston and Iona. Neither school has football, and both are leading mid majors on the east coast.
The Mountain West is now in an interesting position after losing SDSU and Air Force. Matt seems to think the league will not do anything if SDSU only leaves. I think ultimately Hawaii gets an Olympic sports membership to pair with their football-only membership to get the league to 10 all-sports members.
The AAC stays put at 14.
The Missouri Valley comes into the fray unexpectedly as they invite Air Force to join. The league decides 13 is an unwieldy number and invites UT-Arlington as their 14th member.
The MAC, C-USA, and Sun Belt ultimately stay put.
Obviously, the Ivy League stays put as well.
Matt seems to think the WAC might die, but I don't think so. At this point the league has eight members (six of which will play football in 2025).
I think the league will be able to capitalize on a geographic and competitive Olympic sports advantage over the Big Sky and add Northern Colorado and Northern Arizona to get to 10 schools.
I think the Big Sky will respond with a hay-maker. Through innovative scheduling, I believe the following would work out: the Big Sky invites NDSU, SDSU, UND, and USD for all sports to get to 12. North Dakota was once a Big Sky member and the travel was an issue but if all four Dakota schools go that will mitigate that problem.
The CAA is going to need to add a 14th member after the departure of College of Charleston. I believe Charleston is an important city for the league, and they add Charleston Southern.
The Southern decides to capitilize on the Big South's misfortune and add Gardner Webb to get to 11 members.
With the departure of Deion Sanders from Jackson State, the SWAC realizes it needs a new face of the league. The league decides to invite Tennessee State (and Eddie George) to get to 13. TSU is an HBCU in the footprint, and has been rumored as a potential SWAC school.
The following leagues look around and decide to stay put: Patriot, Big West, and MEAC.
The Horizon League pulls the trigger on its prize, Bellarmine, to get to 12.
I think at this point, the Southland and A-Sun (both at 10 schools) stay put.
The MAAC is going to look for a replacement for Iona and settle on Wagner.
The America East looks around and decides to stay at 9.
At this point, the OVC has 9 members, and the Summit is down to 6. Having more stability, the OVC will be the aggressor: the league adds Western Illinois, Kansas City, and Oral Roberts to get to 12.
The NEC is at 8 schools after the departure of Wagner and add Le Moyne (D2) to back to 9 (this is a Matt Brown prediction).
The Big South is at 7 schools after being raided multiple times. Matt has suggested Tampa and West Florida could move up so I will use them. That would get the league back to 9.
This leaves the remaining three Summit league programs (Denver, Omaha, and St. Thomas) and Chicago State. It would take a lot for a league to die as an AQ is so valuable. These four programs add four D2 programs to keep the league alive: Augustana (SD), UIndy (IN), Ferris State (MI), and Grand Valley State (MI).
That leaves us with 370 schools, 32 conferences, and 0 independents.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/re...0591371409
The first moves will be non-moves: the SEC, ACC, Big 12, and ACC all stay put.
Matt has Gonzaga and SDSU moving to the Pac-12. I will go with this but add the following: the league will add Air Force as a football-only member to counter balance Gonzaga and keep the 9-game football schedule. Air Force is a nationally relevant brand as a service academy. Their Olympic sports home will be revealed shortly.
The next league I believe will make a move is the Big East for two reasons: more inventory for the next TV deal and increased NCAA bids. The current double round robin format is great but it hurts the league's chances of gaining maximum bids. Adding one school and keeping the 20-game schedule would likely gain the league half a bid a year as long as the addition would be at least a middle of the pack school; enter Saint Louis. The Bilikens are in a market not tapped by the Big East and would help the league fill out the map in the Midwest. Saint Louis is one of the strongest programs in the Atlantic 10, which has served as a feeder league for the Big East recently.
As a result of the departures of Gonzaga and BYU, the WCC will go hunting: they add Grand Canyon and Seattle. Matt seems to like Cal Baptist over Seattle, but I think the later wins out due to their being several teams in California already and none in Washington state if Gonzaga leaves.
The Atlantic 10 could stay put at 14 but I have a feeling they will go to 16. Two east coast programs stand out as additions: College of Charleston and Iona. Neither school has football, and both are leading mid majors on the east coast.
The Mountain West is now in an interesting position after losing SDSU and Air Force. Matt seems to think the league will not do anything if SDSU only leaves. I think ultimately Hawaii gets an Olympic sports membership to pair with their football-only membership to get the league to 10 all-sports members.
The AAC stays put at 14.
The Missouri Valley comes into the fray unexpectedly as they invite Air Force to join. The league decides 13 is an unwieldy number and invites UT-Arlington as their 14th member.
The MAC, C-USA, and Sun Belt ultimately stay put.
Obviously, the Ivy League stays put as well.
Matt seems to think the WAC might die, but I don't think so. At this point the league has eight members (six of which will play football in 2025).
I think the league will be able to capitalize on a geographic and competitive Olympic sports advantage over the Big Sky and add Northern Colorado and Northern Arizona to get to 10 schools.
I think the Big Sky will respond with a hay-maker. Through innovative scheduling, I believe the following would work out: the Big Sky invites NDSU, SDSU, UND, and USD for all sports to get to 12. North Dakota was once a Big Sky member and the travel was an issue but if all four Dakota schools go that will mitigate that problem.
The CAA is going to need to add a 14th member after the departure of College of Charleston. I believe Charleston is an important city for the league, and they add Charleston Southern.
The Southern decides to capitilize on the Big South's misfortune and add Gardner Webb to get to 11 members.
With the departure of Deion Sanders from Jackson State, the SWAC realizes it needs a new face of the league. The league decides to invite Tennessee State (and Eddie George) to get to 13. TSU is an HBCU in the footprint, and has been rumored as a potential SWAC school.
The following leagues look around and decide to stay put: Patriot, Big West, and MEAC.
The Horizon League pulls the trigger on its prize, Bellarmine, to get to 12.
I think at this point, the Southland and A-Sun (both at 10 schools) stay put.
The MAAC is going to look for a replacement for Iona and settle on Wagner.
The America East looks around and decides to stay at 9.
At this point, the OVC has 9 members, and the Summit is down to 6. Having more stability, the OVC will be the aggressor: the league adds Western Illinois, Kansas City, and Oral Roberts to get to 12.
The NEC is at 8 schools after the departure of Wagner and add Le Moyne (D2) to back to 9 (this is a Matt Brown prediction).
The Big South is at 7 schools after being raided multiple times. Matt has suggested Tampa and West Florida could move up so I will use them. That would get the league back to 9.
This leaves the remaining three Summit league programs (Denver, Omaha, and St. Thomas) and Chicago State. It would take a lot for a league to die as an AQ is so valuable. These four programs add four D2 programs to keep the league alive: Augustana (SD), UIndy (IN), Ferris State (MI), and Grand Valley State (MI).
That leaves us with 370 schools, 32 conferences, and 0 independents.