The Bubble

[tzznandrew]

But if that were the case, wouldn't it throw our SOS into 100-120 range? 74 isn't good, but it is consistent with most of the other bubble teams. Not being debative, just trying to understand a little better.

Well, that's a good point...and this is more a guess...

Some of it probably weighs down our Opponents SOS (a 25% factor in RPI). At least relative to the teams that have similar records.

Other teams have won more, also and that definitely plays a role in the score.

 

[Jerry1714]

We have a better resume than everyone between Pitt and Xavier, except Xavier on that list. Not close to anyone above Pitt.

I just counted, that's 12 teams for the 12 spots. Precarious at best. Need to win the last two obviously, then hope for a winning record vs. the top 50 with no more sub 100 losses. Which is basically win out and make the final.

There are few teams above Pitt I would say we are in the same position with, mainly Davidson, Miami, and ODU

 

[SubbaBub]

There are few teams above Pitt I would say we are in the same position with, mainly Davidson, Miami, and ODU

I'm looking at records vs top 100, then top 50. We are about the same in number of wins vs those groups but had more chances. 5-10 vs the top 100 is not generally bid worthy. Need a few more top 50 wins.

The SOS is bad due to the compounding interest of the bottom of the AAC, no helping that. There was a benefit to stomping SH, PC et al, in the BE. By just being in that league the SOS was much higher.

losses to texas, WvU, Yale and Houston are what's keeping us out right now.

 

[tzznandrew]

Remaining regular season games for these teams, with RPIs after). I italicized and underlined the games where these teams play each other:

UConn: Memphis (92), @Temple (40)
BYU: none
Boise State: @San Jose State (335), Fresno St. (195)
Colorado State: @Nevada (302), @Utah State (135)
Cincinnati: @Tulsa (37), Memphis (92)
Davidson: VCU (19), @Duquesne (241)
Illinois: Nebraska (124), @Purdue (58)
Indiana: Iowa (48), Michigan State (31)
LSU: Tennessee (104), @Arkansas(18)
Miami: @Pitt (49), @Virginia Tech (213)
NC State: @Clemson (85), Syracuse (57)
Old Dominion: Marshall (295), Western Kentucky (115)
Oregon: Oregon State (106)
Pitt: Miami (70), @Florida State (121)
Purdue: @Michigan State (31), Illinois (59)
Stanford: @Arizona State (91), @Arizona (7)
Temple: @East Carolina (224), @UConn (69)
Texas: Baylor (8), Kansas St. (76)
Texas A&M: @Florida (83), Alabama (81)
Tulsa: Cincinnati (51), @SMU (20)
UCLA: USC (204)
Xavier: @Creighton (125)

 

[tzznandrew]

I'm looking at records vs top 100, then top 50. We are about the same in number of wins vs those groups but had more chances. 5-10 vs the top 100 is not generally bid worthy. Need a few more top 50 wins.

The SOS is bad due to the compounding interest of the bottom of the AAC, no helping that. There was a benefit to stomping SH, PC et al, in the BE. By just being in that league the SOS was much higher.

losses to texas, WvU, Yale and Houston are what's keeping us out right now.

We'd like Memphis to stay in the Top 100. Games against 2 Top 70 teams for them (probably losses), and then a win against the 11 seed (USF or Houston)..only then for another loss...I don't know.

We also want Cincy to get back into the Top 50.

In the likely event that Memphis falls out of Top 100 but Cincy gets back into the Top 50, we'll get an extra Top 50 win and also chances against Temple, and then (hopefully) up to 3 more in the AAC. We could get to 9-9 v. Top 100 (or, say we lose in the AAC final, 8-10). Also, we can get to 7-6 or 6-8 against RPI Top 50 if Tulsa, Temple, and Cincy can all stay there. We might even be able to help them out big time with a win streak.

 

[EricLA]

I think Indiana and NC State have a pretty good case to be in as long as they get a few more wins over the next week. Id feel a lot more comfortable winning the AAC Tournament

Are we not the AQ from the conference if we win the tourney? If that's the sase then yeah I'd feel pretty comfortable too!

 

[MDHusky]

22 schools for 13 spots, but what if you get an upset in a Conference Championship like the A10, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, or West Coast. This could reduce the number of at-large available spots to 9-12.

 

[pepband99]

indeed - we all need to be rooting for:

Wichita or UNI in the MVC.
VCU in the A10 (though Dayton might be close enough, and an RPI bonus at that)
SDSU in the MWC

...plus any other "out of nowhere" bid stealers

 

[gwhuskyfan]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/UCONN/COLOST

This CBS Rpi comparison tool is pretty cool. I just plugged in a team that's in a play-in game according to Lunardi. Really interesting to see how our resumes compare to these teams.

 

[SubbaBub]

Connecticut
Regular Season 17-11 0.955 70.6
vs. 1-50 3-5 0.902 71.3
vs. 51-100 2-5 0.98 65.8 <------- Need 2-3 more wins against the Top 50. Beating a top 25 SMU again would help. 8-11 against the top 100-should get you in.
vs. 101-150 0-0 N/A N/A <-------This is our biggest problem played only 15 games against top 100, losing 10. The BE bottom feeders would normally have filled this spot, raising our RPI.
vs. 151+ 12-1 0.973 72.8 <------- These are worthless to the committee, except the loss to Houston, of course.

 

[tzznandrew]

Tonight's relevant game:

Baylor/Texas. Texas losing slightly hurts our RPI, but they are now in direct competition with us for a spot, so let's hope this makes them 1-10 vs. RPI Top 25.

Go Bears.

 

[pnow15]

indeed - we all need to be rooting for:

Wichita or UNI in the MVC.
VCU in the A10 (though Dayton might be close enough, and an RPI bonus at that)
SDSU in the MWC

...plus any other "out of nowhere" bid stealers

Like us.

 

[auror]

Help me out. Our SOS is generally in line (a few are far better, some are far worse). Our wins against the RPI levels are generally consistent with the others (again, some are better, some not).

So what is the major driver of our RPI being so high? Is it our record? Or is it just a bad combination of factors? The 5-10 against the top 100 probably doesn't help us. Just curious about what is really pushed us down a peg?

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/UCONN/COLOST

This CBS Rpi comparison tool is pretty cool. I just plugged in a team that's in a play-in game according to Lunardi. Really interesting to see how our resumes compare to these teams.

As mentioned above, schedule and opponents schedule plays a part, but this helps illustrate the point even further. The difference:
1) More wins. Especially in the 50-100 range. This is why the remaining 2 and couple in the tourny before finals loss are big. It's not just more wins, but who they'd be against. Assuming we beat Memphis, we'll only possibly play against teams of top 100 caliber: Memphis, Temple (most likely x2), Tulsa, Cincy/SMU.
2) Loss to Houston. Truly crushing. According to RPI Wizard, this cost us at least 10 spots in the RPI alone.
3) Home/neutral losses. We've got 2 home losses and 2 neutral losses. Not atrocious, but it doesn't help.

 

[gtcam]

Speculate this Speculate that
The only way to avoid any damn speculation is to win the AAC tourney
Let's go UConn

 

[tzznandrew]

Texas beat Baylor. That helps them stanch the bleeding, but it doesn't help their overall numbers. No updates on RPI yet, but:

Texas
Record: 18-12
v. RPI Top 25: 2-9
v. RPI Top 50: 3-11
v. RPI Top 100: 6-12

 

[Greathusky]

indeed - we all need to be rooting for:

Wichita or UNI in the MVC.
VCU in the A10 (though Dayton might be close enough, and an RPI bonus at that)
SDSU in the MWC

...plus any other "out of nowhere" bid stealers

And Gonzaga

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

Texas beat Baylor. That helps them stem the bleeding, but it doesn't help their overall numbers. No updates on RPI yet, but:

Texas
Record: 18-12
v. RPI Top 25: 2-9
v. RPI Top 50: 3-11
v. RPI Top 100: 6-12

Barnes saved his job tonight despite a horrible end of regulation play call or lack there of. Northern Iowa coach Ben Jacobson who considered the Texas A & M job after his Sweet16 run was probably that close to the Texas job.

 

[SubbaBub]

Texas beat Baylor. That helps them stem the bleeding, but it doesn't help their overall numbers. No updates on RPI yet, but:

Texas
Record: 18-12
v. RPI Top 25: 2-9
v. RPI Top 50: 3-11
v. RPI Top 100: 6-12

1-2 vs. top 26-50
1-2 vs. top 51-100 (the 1 was a buzzer beater of some renown)

Not good numbers at all, other than H2H, our resume is better. Lots of opportunities and few wins.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

And Gonzaga

The Utah State AD won't leave Boise out if they win their last 2 conference games against scrubs

indeed - we all need to be rooting for:

Wichita or UNI in the MVC.
VCU in the A10 (though Dayton might be close enough, and an RPI bonus at that)
SDSU in the MWC

...plus any other "out of nowhere" bid stealers

The Utah State AD will lobby for Boise St. if they win their final 2 regular season games against scrubs and win the MWC title. At the most after that they would need to win 1 game in the MWC tourney...but not sure that will be necessary.

 

[Jerry1714]

1-2 vs. top 26-50
1-2 vs. top 51-100 (the 1 was a buzzer beater of some renown)

Not good numbers at all, other than H2H, our resume is better. Lots of opportunities and few wins.

They will be given the benefit of the doubt playing in the best conference in the country.

 

[CTBasketball]

Full body of work will be used against us.

 

[RMoore1999]

We'd like Memphis to stay in the Top 100. Games against 2 Top 70 teams for them (probably losses), and then a win against the 11 seed (USF or Houston)..only then for another loss...I don't know.

We also want Cincy to get back into the Top 50.

In the likely event that Memphis falls out of Top 100 but Cincy gets back into the Top 50, we'll get an extra Top 50 win and also chances against Temple, and then (hopefully) up to 3 more in the AAC. We could get to 9-9 v. Top 100 (or, say we lose in the AAC final, 8-10). Also, we can get to 7-6 or 6-8 against RPI Top 50 if Tulsa, Temple, and Cincy can all stay there. We might even be able to help them out big time with a win streak.

I think its more likely we win 3 in a row in Hartford than we win the next 4 and the Committee selects us as an at large. That's why we should be rooting hard for Memphis, Temple and Cincy to lose so we can maximize AAC tourney seeding.

 

[CTBasketball]

Just have to win.

I wonder what would be better - beating SMU in the semi-final and then losing in the final to say Cincinnati/Tulsa. Or beating Cincinnati/Tulsa in the semi-final and losing to SMU in the final. I'm going to have to say Option A.

 

[Ts5034]

Are we not the AQ from the conference if we win the tourney? If that's the sase then yeah I'd feel pretty comfortable too!

Well yes obviously, but I was talking about being more comfortable with our seed as far as staying out of a play in game if we won the AAC tournament.

 

[Fishy]

If we lose to either Temple or Memphis, we need to win the AAC tournament.

If we beat Temple and Memphis and we lose in the conference tournament on Friday or Saturday, we have no reason to watch the selection show. We be going to the NIT.

If we beat Temple and Memphis and win Friday and Saturday only to lose on Sunday, you can watch the selection show through your fingers. I'd put our chances at one in four at best.

If we beat Temple and Memphis, or not, and win Friday, Saturday and Sunday, you can watch the selection show and then go to the message board of some five seed who's pissed that we're their first round opponent.