The Bubble

[tzznandrew]

This will be long, mostly data. You were warned.

Okay, so the team has put itself in position to earn an NCAA bid. I looked at Lunardi's last 4 byes, last 4 in, and first 8 out, as well as Jerry Palm's. These 22 schools, (21 plus UConn, which doesn't appear in any of them) are competing for roughly 13 spots (2 8/9-seeds, all 4 10-seeds, all 5 11-seeds, 2 12-seeds in Lunardi). Right now, UConn is on the outside, but the bubble is fluid, and you'll see they don't look all that different from some other bubble teams...especially if Cincy (RPI 51) pops back into the Top 50. But, like all these teams, they need to win.

Bubble Teams

UConn
Record: 17-11
RPI: 69
KenPom: 56
SOS: 74
NC SOS: 88
v. RPI Top 25: 1-3
v. RPI Top 50: 3-6
v. RPI Top 100: 5-10
v. RPI sub-150: 12-1
R/N: 7-8

BYU
Record: 21-8
RPI: 39
KenPom: 26
SOS: 76
NC SOS: 16
v. RPI Top 25: 1-3
v. RPI Top 50: 1-3
v. RPI Top 100: 4-5
v. RPI sub-150: 12-0
R/N: 9-5

Boise State
Record: 20-7
RPI: 30
KenPom: 37
SOS: 99
NC SOS: 184
v. RPI Top 25: 2-1
v. RPI Top 50: 3-3
v. RPI Top 100: 6-4
v. RPI sub-150: 12-1
R/N: 10-6

Colorado State
Record: 23-5
RPI: 26
KenPom: 74
SOS: 121
NC SOS: 99
v. RPI Top 25: 1-1
v. RPI Top 50: 2-2
v. RPI Top 100: 6-4
v. RPI sub-150: 14-1
R/N: 9-4

Cincinnati
Record: 20-9
RPI: 51
KenPom: 42
SOS: 73
NC SOS: 32
v. RPI Top 25: 3-1
v. RPI Top 50: 5-4
v. RPI Top 100: 6-6
v. RPI sub-150: 12-2
R/N: 6-6

Davidson
Record: 20-6
RPI: 36
KenPom: 32
SOS: 131
NC SOS: 234
v. RPI Top 25: 0-3
v. RPI Top 50: 1-3
v. RPI Top 100: 7-4
v. RPI sub-150: 12-1
R/N: 8-5

Illinois
Record: 18-11
RPI: 59
KenPom: 57
SOS: 57
NC SOS: 157
v. RPI Top 25: 2-2
v. RPI Top 50: 3-7
v. RPI Top 100: 5-10
v. RPI sub-150: 9-0
R/N: 5-9

Indiana
Record: 19-10
RPI: 42
KenPom: 47
SOS: 32
NC SOS: 109
v. RPI Top 25: 3-4
v. RPI Top 50: 5-6
v. RPI Top 100: 8-9
v. RPI sub-150: 8-0
R/N: 4-8

LSU
Record: 21-8
RPI: 45
KenPom: 28
SOS: 92
NC SOS: 162
v. RPI Top 25: 1-1
v. RPI Top 50: 4-4
v. RPI Top 100: 11-5
v. RPI sub-150: 8-2
R/N: 8-5

Miami
Record: 18-11
RPI: 70
KenPom: 66
SOS: 66
NC SOS: 195
v. RPI Top 25: 1-5
v. RPI Top 50: 2-6
v. RPI Top 100: 6-7
v. RPI sub-150: 10-1
R/N: 8-5

NC State
Record: 17-12
RPI: 50
KenPom: 43
SOS: 5
NC SOS: 25
v. RPI Top 25: 3-4
v. RPI Top 50: 5-5
v. RPI Top 100: 7-10
v. RPI sub-150: 5-1
R/N: 4-6

Old Dominion
Record: 22-6
RPI: 58
KenPom: 64
SOS: 139
NC SOS: 48
v. RPI Top 25: 1-0
v. RPI Top 50: 2-0
v. RPI Top 100: 5-2
v. RPI sub-150: 15-3
R/N: 7-6

Oregon
Record: 21-8
RPI: 35
KenPom: 49
SOS: 70
NC SOS: 156
v. RPI Top 25: 1-3
v. RPI Top 50: 1-4
v. RPI Top 100: 9-6
v. RPI sub-150: 7-0
R/N: 5-6

Pitt
Record: 18-11
RPI: 49
KenPom: 76
SOS: 38
NC SOS: 114
v. RPI Top 25: 1-5
v. RPI Top 50: 2-7
v. RPI Top 100: 5-8
v. RPI sub-150: 8-2
R/N: 4-9

Purdue
Record: 19-10
RPI: 58
KenPom: 50
SOS: 80
NC SOS: 228
v. RPI Top 25: 0-2
v. RPI Top 50: 6-4
v. RPI Top 100: 8-8
v. RPI sub-150: 8-2
R/N: 6-7

Stanford
Record: 18-10
RPI: 56
KenPom: 38
SOS: 68
NC SOS: 95
v. RPI Top 25: 0-3
v. RPI Top 50: 1-5
v. RPI Top 100: 7-7
v. RPI sub-150: 7-1
R/N: 5-7

Temple
Record: 20-9
RPI: 40
KenPom: 62
SOS: 65
NC SOS: 58
v. RPI Top 25: 1-4
v. RPI Top 50: 1-6
v. RPI Top 100: 6-8
v. RPI sub-150: 14-1
R/N: 7-7

Tulsa
Record: 21-6
RPI: 37
KenPom: 65
SOS: 131
NC SOS: 234
v. RPI Top 25: 0-3
v. RPI Top 50: 2-4
v. RPI Top 100: 5-5
v. RPI sub-150: 14-1
R/N: 9-4

Texas
Record: 17-12
RPI: 46
KenPom: 21
SOS: 9
NC SOS: 87
v. RPI Top 25: 1-9
v. RPI Top 50: 2-11
v. RPI Top 100: 5-12
v. RPI sub-150: 8-0
R/N: 6-7

Texas A&M
Record: 20-8
RPI: 38
KenPom: 39
SOS: 86
NC SOS: 133
v. RPI Top 25: 0-3
v. RPI Top 50: 2-6
v. RPI Top 100: 7-8
v. RPI sub-150: 10-0
R/N: 7-6

UCLA
Record: 18-12
RPI: 52
KenPom: 52
SOS: 58
NC SOS: 70
v. RPI Top 25: 1-6
v. RPI Top 50: 2-7
v. RPI Top 100: 5-10
v. RPI sub-150: 7-0
R/N: 3-11

Xavier
Record: 18-12
RPI: 41
KenPom: 27
SOS: 14
NC SOS: 53
v. RPI Top 25: 4-4
v. RPI Top 50: 4-6
v. RPI Top 100: 9-8
v. RPI sub-150: 4-1
R/N: 5-9

 

[ConnHuskBask]

It's going to be pretty damn interesting if they can knock off Memphis and Temple and head back to Hartford on a roll.

I wonder if we would be in right now had we won Yale, Texas and Houston?

I'm sure all these teams have what if scenarios but man those last second threes were killers.

 

[mauconnfan]

It's going to be pretty damn interesting if they can knock off Memphis and Temple and head back to Hartford on a roll.

I wonder if we would be in right now had we won Yale, Texas and Houston?

I'm sure all these teams have what if scenarios but man those last second threes were killers.

Give me 2 of Yale, Texas, Houston and Temple and I think we're in a real good spot going into the last 2 now. I mean 19-9 and being UConn would be a big helper!

 

[tzznandrew]

Give me 2 of Yale, Texas, Houston and Temple and I think we're in a real good spot going into the last 2 now. I mean 19-9 and being UConn would be a big helper!

Give me Texas and Houston, and I think they're in. Yale is RPI Top 100, but Texas is a competing Bubble Team who is (currently) RPI Top 50. Houston...well, that would make our R/N record 8-7, and it would eliminate our 1 bad loss.

Things that can go well: Cincy can get back into the RPI Top 50 pretty quickly.
Things that can hurt: Memphis, sans Nichols, can fall out of Top 100 easily.

 

[scrappy2.0]

I just want to keep winning--if we keep winning I feel good about our chances. If we did an eye test yesterday--Uconn passed it. Just 1 game at a time

 

[bmayuc]

Our current numbers against those teams are realllly not good. We need to win out, and then at least get to the AAC Champ game to get an At Large. Tough Task.

 

[tzznandrew]

Our current numbers against those teams are realllly not good. We need to win out, and then at least get to the AAC Champ game to get an At Large. Tough Task.

That's true, and they do need to win out. But remember, too, some of these teams will continue to lose. A team not on this list: Oklahoma State. On 2/9 they were 16-7, 3-5 v. RPI Top 25, 6-5 v. RPI Top 50, no bad losses.

Now: 4 straight losses, 2 v. sub-RPI 100 teams. They have a home game against TCU and a road game @WVU. Their RPI is sinking. I haven't put them here, but this is a team that could lose a spot. And a number of these other teams can play themselves off the bubble.

Texas, for instance. We may want them to win tonight to help our RPI...or, we may want them to continue to lose...

 

[SubbaBub]

We have a better resume than everyone between Pitt and Xavier, except Xavier on that list. Not close to anyone above Pitt.

I just counted, that's 12 teams for the 12 spots. Precarious at best. Need to win the last two obviously, then hope for a winning record vs. the top 50 with no more sub 100 losses. Which is basically win out and make the final.

 

[Inyatkin]

That's true, and they do need to win out. But remember, too, some of these teams will continue to lose. A team not on this list: Oklahoma State. On 2/9 they were 16-7, 3-5 v. RPI Top 25, 6-5 v. RPI Top 50, no bad losses.

Now: 4 straight losses, 2 v. sub-RPI 100 teams. They have a home game against TCU and a road game @WVU. Their RPI is sinking. I haven't put them here, but this is a team that could lose a spot. And a number of these other teams can play themselves off the bubble.

Texas, for instance. We may want them to win tonight to help our RPI...or, we may want them to continue to lose...

I think anyone we could be competing against for a spot, we want them to lose. Our RPI is going to be ugly in any event.
On the plus side, we're not competing with Syracuse.

 

[pepband99]

One thing NOT working in our favor, I think (though this is speculation based on looking around)...

Our AAC Tourney games are counted as "home" games, despite the implication that they're neutral. This will take some steam out of postseason wins.

 

[1999.2004.2011]

One thing NOT working in our favor, I think (though this is speculation based on looking around)...

Our AAC Tourney games are counted as "home" games, despite the implication that they're neutral. This will take some steam out of postseason wins.

Yes I think it'll have less impact on how high our BPI could rise, but at the same time winning "home" games against teams with RPI's in the 50-70 range (Cincy, Temple, Tulsa) helps out a lot. Winning another game against SMU (Top 25) would help even more

 

[bmayuc]

That's true, and they do need to win out. But remember, too, some of these teams will continue to lose. A team not on this list: Oklahoma State. On 2/9 they were 16-7, 3-5 v. RPI Top 25, 6-5 v. RPI Top 50, no bad losses.

Now: 4 straight losses, 2 v. sub-RPI 100 teams. They have a home game against TCU and a road game @WVU. Their RPI is sinking. I haven't put them here, but this is a team that could lose a spot. And a number of these other teams can play themselves off the bubble.

Texas, for instance. We may want them to win tonight to help our RPI...or, we may want them to continue to lose...

Oh I get it. Just saying that when you drop a baseline down and say "ok, this is what each team still needs to do to get in", we are almost at the bottom of that list with the most to do. Its an uphill climb for us.

 

[tzznandrew]

Oh I get it. Just saying that when you drop a baseline down and say "ok, this is what each team still needs to do to get in", we are almost at the bottom of that list with the most to do. Its an uphill climb for us.

If they lose one game before before the AAC title game, they are likely out...maybe, maybe they can lose to SMU in the semis. But unlikely.

So, this is as it looks now. I know they're not in great shape. But they aren't in as bad a shape as other teams...provided they win. Some people are still claiming that they need to win the AAC tournament.

I don't believe that.

And looking at that bubble...4 more wins and I think they're in.

 

[Matt1010]

If they lose one game before before the AAC title game, they are likely out...maybe, maybe they can lose to SMU in the semis. But unlikely.

So, this is as it looks now. I know they're not in great shape. But they aren't in as bad a shape as other teams...provided they win. Some people are still claiming that they need to win the AAC tournament.

I don't believe that.

And looking at that bubble...4 more wins and I think they're in.

What really scares me is the lack of respect the AAC was given last year entering the tournament. Both us and Lville were under seeded and SMU didn't even make the field (thought they were more deserving than multiple others). The bubble is weaker this year but so is the AAC and I'm afraid we will be shown an equal lack of respect. Let's win the tournament in Hartford and not give the committee that option.

 

[mcs333]

NBC Sports has us on the second five out line. We are the 10th out. Still a lot of BB to be played. Tonight we want Texas to lose. Nothing much else tonight.

 

[ecasadoSBU]

Xavier is not in the bubble right now. Lunardi has then safely in...

All of those other teams we can hopefully skip if we win out and get to at-least the finals of the AAC tournament

 

[ecasadoSBU]

What really scares me is the lack of respect the AAC was given last year entering the tournament. Both us and Lville were under seeded and SMU didn't even make the field (thought they were more deserving than multiple others). The bubble is weaker this year but so is the AAC and I'm afraid we will be shown an equal lack of respect. Let's win the tournament in Hartford and not give the committee that option.

they betta not disrespect the Defending National Champion!

 

[Ts5034]

I think Indiana and NC State have a pretty good case to be in as long as they get a few more wins over the next week. Id feel a lot more comfortable winning the AAC Tournament

 

[tzznandrew]

Xavier is not in the bubble right now. Lunardi has then safely in...

All of those other teams we can hopefully skip if we win out and get to at-least the finals of the AAC tournament

Lunardi has them "safely" in (8-seed), but Palm has them "In for now."

Let's just say they lose @Creighton (RPI 125). Then they go to the Garden as the 6 seed (might anyway), and they play Butler, PC or Georgetown. Good chance they lose that game too. That would mean they 4 game losing streak, an 18-14 team with a RPI in the high 40s and 5-7 in their last 12.

That's hardly a lock.

 

[tzznandrew]

I think Indiana and NC State have a pretty good case to be in as long as they get a few more wins over the next week. Id feel a lot more comfortable winning the AAC Tournament

I agree.

Indiana (RPI 42) ends with a couple of home games against RPI Top 50 teams (Iowa and Michigan State).
NC State (RPI 50) ends @Clemson and home vs. Syracuse. Those are both games they can win.

But losses there hurt each. Neither of those teams have stellar numbers.

 

[seeya27]

Help me out. Our SOS is generally in line (a few are far better, some are far worse). Our wins against the RPI levels are generally consistent with the others (again, some are better, some not).

So what is the major driver of our RPI being so high? Is it our record? Or is it just a bad combination of factors? The 5-10 against the top 100 probably doesn't help us. Just curious about what is really pushed us down a peg?

 

[ecasadoSBU]

Lunardi has them "safely" in (8-seed), but Palm has them "In for now."

Let's just say they lose @Creighton (RPI 125). Then they go to the Garden as the 6 seed (might anyway), and they play Butler, PC or Georgetown. Good chance they lose that game too. That would mean they 4 game losing streak, an 18-14 team with a RPI in the high 40s and 5-7 in their last 12.

That's hardly a lock.

Good points. I think they definitely need to beat Creighton as you stated above. Losing to them will put them back in the bubble conversation. An additional win besides that one for them to get 20 should place them in a safer position.

 

[tzznandrew]

Help me out. Our SOS is generally in line (a few are far better, some are far worse). Our wins against the RPI levels are generally consistent with the others (again, some are better, some not).

So what is the major driver of our RPI being so high? Is it our record? Or is it just a bad combination of factors? The 5-10 against the top 100 probably doesn't help us. Just curious about what is really pushed us down a peg?

9 games against sub-200 teams. That'll do it. Especially when 6 of those are sub-250, and 3 are 298 or worse.

 

[seeya27]

9 games against sub-200 teams. That'll do it. Especially when 6 of those are sub-250, and 3 are 298 or worse.

But if that were the case, wouldn't it throw our SOS into 100-120 range? 74 isn't good, but it is consistent with most of the other bubble teams. Not being debative, just trying to understand a little better.

 

[Rico444]

But if that were the case, wouldn't it throw our SOS into 100-120 range? 74 isn't good, but it is consistent with most of the other bubble teams. Not being debative, just trying to understand a little better.

I'm sure losing to Houston hurt us a ton.