Stewart and blocked shot value

[UcMiami]

I have been thinking about this and decided too post a new thread:
I don't think I have ever seen a shot blocker as good as Stewart at turning her blocks into Uconn possessions.

Shot blocks are a strange stat in that while they are generally a positive 'intimidation' factor, they in themselves do not actually change a possession - if the defensive team does not get the rebound or they do not cause a shot clock violation they haven't really changed the offensive possession much - they are the same as a simple missed shot that doesn't touch the rim. The huge swats that send the ball five rows up in the stands look great on film, but the offensive team retains possession. The ones that stay in bounds and are rebounded by the offense may in fact lead to a defensive breakdown and a lay-up or open three pointer.

I have never seen a statistic on percentage of team possession after a blocked shot, but I suspect that with blocks that go out of bounds and ones that are rebounded by the offensive team the offense probably retains possession on 60% of blocked shots and it might be as high as 70+%. I have also never seen an analysis of Stewart's blocks, but it seems to me that between the ones she simply grabs with two hands, the ones she rebounds herself, and the ones she either seems to direct to teammates or that her teammates are able to corral, she has flipped the script and the defense gains possession 60+% of the time. I can't remember the last block she sent directly out of bounds which is a huge factor in the possession issue. I wonder if the coaches actually work on this aspect with her or if it is even conscious effort, but it does stand out to me.

As an aside to this observation - that now famous three block performance on a single offensive possession sort of proves the limited value of blocks - Duquesne actually got three offensive rebounds on that sequence and two pretty decent looks at the basket. They didn't score, but those three blocks accounted for a single change of possession solely because Duquesne ran out of time and suffered a shot clock violation - three steals would have been much more productive resulting in two extra offensive possessions for Stewart's team.

 

[NoelAustin]

Stewie's three blocks was a very unusual athletic accomplishment, but had little net value to the team because she turned the ball over seconds later. In the same game Moriah had 10 field goal attempts which resulted in 20 points scored. That is also very unusual and went (as far as I can tell) unnoticed. Whatever floats your boat....

 

[noirwestern]

It's hard to quantify but the psychological factor is probably as useful as a steal if it changes the way an opposing player approaches her shot for the rest of the game. You've seen the effect, where a drive is in progress and Stewart only has to start in their direction forcing the player to change plans.

 

[Kibitzer]

As a shot blocker Stewie has become the wcbb reincarnation of Bill Russell. Their comparable success is not a coincidence.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Griner blocked more shots, but Stewie seems to come out of nowhere. She does a great job of keeping the ball in play and then turning defense into offense. Then, depending on which coach's metaphor you want to use, it becomes either a track meet or piranhas feeding on a roast (a track meat?).

 

[MilfordHusky]

As a shot blocker Stewie has become the wcbb reincarnation of Bill Russell. Their comparable success is not a coincidence.

Bill and USF won 60 games in a row. That was the record before UCLA got to 88. Stewie is at 72, I believe.

 

[MilfordHusky]

It's hard to quantify but the psychological factor is probably as useful as a steal if it changes the way an opposing player approaches her shot for the rest of the game. You've seen the effect, where a drive is in progress and Stewart only has to start in their direction forcing the player to change plans.

Yeah, hard to quantify, but it's clear they are

Demoralizing.

 

[Geno-ista]

I have been thinking about this and decided too post a new thread:
I don't think I have ever seen a shot blocker as good as Stewart at turning her blocks into Uconn possessions.

Shot blocks are a strange stat in that while they are generally a positive 'intimidation' factor, they in themselves do not actually change a possession - if the defensive team does not get the rebound or they do not cause a shot clock violation they haven't really changed the offensive possession much - they are the same as a simple missed shot that doesn't touch the rim. The huge swats that send the ball five rows up in the stands look great on film, but the offensive team retains possession. The ones that stay in bounds and are rebounded by the offense may in fact lead to a defensive breakdown and a lay-up or open three pointer.

I have never seen a statistic on percentage of team possession after a blocked shot, but I suspect that with blocks that go out of bounds and ones that are rebounded by the offensive team the offense probably retains possession on 60% of blocked shots and it might be as high as 70+%. I have also never seen an analysis of Stewart's blocks, but it seems to me that between the ones she simply grabs with two hands, the ones she rebounds herself, and the ones she either seems to direct to teammates or that her teammates are able to corral, she has flipped the script and the defense gains possession 60+% of the time. I can't remember the last block she sent directly out of bounds which is a huge factor in the possession issue. I wonder if the coaches actually work on this aspect with her or if it is even conscious effort, but it does stand out to me.

As an aside to this observation - that now famous three block performance on a single offensive possession sort of proves the limited value of blocks - Duquesne actually got three offensive rebounds on that sequence and two pretty decent looks at the basket. They didn't score, but those three blocks accounted for a single change of possession solely because Duquesne ran out of time and suffered a shot clock violation - three steals would have been much more productive resulting in two extra offensive possessions for Stewart's team.

Brilliant UC- most of them are like steals- great observation!

 

[UcMiami]

Griner blocked more shots, but Stewie seems to come out of nowhere. She does a great job of keeping the ball in play and then turning defense into offense. Then, depending on which coach's metaphor you want to use, it becomes either a track meet or piranhas feeding on a roast (a track meat?).

I'm thinking she uses the two handed 'volleyball' block more than most shot blockers I remember which allows for those 'I think I'll just take this ball if you don't mind' blocks.

In thinking about this - a block really isn't that much different from a tipped pass in its result. Tipped passes end up out of bounds a lot, still in the possession of the offensive team, sometimes they still make it to an offensive player and sometimes they lead to the defense getting possession on a steal. And they too, if they happen as frequently as Moriah and Gabby produce them, are intimidation factors - players become hesitant to make passes, shorten the length of passes, etc. They can completely disrupt offensive flow.

 

[Ron and Vida]

As a shot blocker Stewie has become the wcbb reincarnation of Bill Russell. Their comparable success is not a coincidence.

Exactly. Russell took the most pride in keeping blocked shots inbounds and getting possession, not just the number of shots blocked.

 

[ctfjr]

I'm thinking she uses the two handed 'volleyball' block more than most shot blockers I remember which allows for those 'I think I'll just take this ball if you don't mind' blocks.

In thinking about this - a block really isn't that much different from a tipped pass in its result. Tipped passes end up out of bounds a lot, still in the possession of the offensive team, sometimes they still make it to an offensive player and sometimes they lead to the defense getting possession on a steal. And they too, if they happen as frequently as Moriah and Gabby produce them, are intimidation factors - players become hesitant to make passes, shorten the length of passes, etc. They can completely disrupt offensive flow.

I believe one of the benefits of even blocking a shot or tipping a pass out of bounds is time off the clock. The offense has to 1st get the ball inbounds and then (usually) set up an offensive set. It leaves them with a 'hurry up' mentality (and not a lot of possession clock time).

 

[PhillyCoach]

I'm thinking she uses the two handed 'volleyball' block more than most shot blockers I remember which allows for those 'I think I'll just take this ball if you don't mind' blocks.

In thinking about this - a block really isn't that much different from a tipped pass in its result. Tipped passes end up out of bounds a lot, still in the possession of the offensive team, sometimes they still make it to an offensive player and sometimes they lead to the defense getting possession on a steal. And they too, if they happen as frequently as Moriah and Gabby produce them, are intimidation factors - players become hesitant to make passes, shorten the length of passes, etc. They can completely disrupt offensive flow.

UC - Great stuff! Your unusual analysis really sets a high standard of thinking. It was very interesting how your initial observations eventually came full circle. The statistics angle led the way at first, but after your critical thinking and other astute posters insights--we all realized that statistically the "Stewie Block" was not as valuable as first estimated. Milford and others did hit the key value--Demoralizing, intimidating, hesitation, and change of game plans!!
I also really liked your recognition of Stewie's two handed style of blocking. I personally have not seen that anywhere else (other than the volleyball court) as you stated.
Thanks for keeping the BY a top tier blog.