South Carolina has a REALLY HARD path to the N.C....

[DavidinNaples]

In order to reach the Final Four and win the N.C., South Carolina will have to beat North Carolina and, most probably, Florida State. In the Final Four semi, they would probably need to beat Notre Dame to reach the Final. There, they might face UConn. Here’s how the #1 seeds would win the N.C. In summary:

South Carolina must beat:
1. North Carolina
2. Florida State
3. Notre Dame
4. UConn or Maryland

Anything can happen, but that is probably the most likely path for South Carolina. Not easy…

Notre Dame must beat:
1. Stanford
2. Baylor
3. South Carolina
4. UConn or Maryland

Maryland must beat:
1. Duke
2. Tennessee
3. UConn
4. Notre Dame or South Carolina

UConn must beat:
1. Texas
2. Louisville
3. Maryland
4. Notre Dame or South Carolina

Not sure who has the harder path, but it probably isn’t UConn... Anything can happen, but…..

 

[Farney]

Realistic question: Are we typically seen as the team with the easiest path because we are that much better than the other teams so games always look easier? I think we can probably agree the SC has the toughest road but would UConn have any trouble with any bracket but the SC one?

 

[Aluminny69]

It's really difficult to tell how good Baylor and Maryland really are, since they haven't played any top teams ( that I know of).

Stanford is another question mark, as they have proved capable of playing really well, and also have an excellent Coach. A dangerous team, and regular Final Four participant.

 

[CocoHusky]

Realistic question: Are we typically seen as the team with the easiest path because we are that much better than the other teams so games always look easier? I think we can probably agree the SC has the toughest road but would UConn have any trouble with any bracket but the SC one?

The just a slightly different way to look at it in terms of realistic team expectations. For:
o UCONN- Anything but a NC is a disappointment.
o SC-Not making the final 4 would be a disappointment.
o ND-Not playing in the NC game would be a disappointment.
o MD- Not returning to the final 4 would be a disappointment.
o FSU, TENN, Baylor, NC, Duke -Not making a Regional Championship game would be a disappointment.
o TX and all others- Already overachieved no more disappointment for this season
Bottom line, some Team(s) will be disappointed.

 

[Aluminny69]

Bottom line, some Team(s) will be disappointed.

Actually, all but one team will be disappointed. 63 out of 64 teams in the tournament end their season with a loss.

 

[JoePgh]

Realistic question: Are we typically seen as the team with the easiest path because we are that much better than the other teams so games always look easier? I think we can probably agree the SC has the toughest road but would UConn have any trouble with any bracket but the SC one?

Partly that is because the #1 overall seed is supposed to have the easiest path through the tournament. That is what their #1-overall status has earned them.

Also, Maryland has played ONE really good team -- Notre Dame. They lost to them by a rather wide margin a few days before ND played UConn. Brianna Turner was injured early in that game, so basically ND won without her. Maryland's loss and UConn's win were against the same ND team on the same court.

Baylor, as far as I know, has Kentucky and Texas as its best opponents. They lost to Kentucky on the road, as I recall -- something that Dayton was recently able to avoid (although, to be fair, Kentucky had a major injury between those two games).

 

[Joobie]

Looks to me like Maryland has the toughest path.

 

[CocoHusky]

Actually, all but one team will be disappointed. 63 out of 64 teams in the tournament end their season with a loss.

Agree that all but 1 team will be disappointed. But not all disappointment is equal. As Meek Mill would say "There levels to this...

 

[Wbbfan1]

I'm thinking South Carolina loses to FSU due to the play of Leticia Romero. South Carolina is the better team and should easily win, going with my gut feeling. North Carolina probably has the better athletes to upset South Carolina, but don't think South Carolina will allow a repeat of last year.

However the #1 seed that is in the most likely to be upset is Notre Dame. If Stanford play the same game they did against UConn they have a good shot. If they get by Stanford, they most likely play Baylor who plays great defense and can rebound to limit ND's second chance points.

A Dayton vs UConn has the potential to be interesting if UConn is unable to get out to a double digit lead. Dayton is fundamentally sound, has good size and don't miss Free Throws. If Dayton is able to keep the game close anything can happen like it did against Kentucky.

Look for Maryland to beat the Lady Vols to get to the Final Four. Maryland has the guards to beat the Vols and that's what wins Elite 8 games.

 

[Sonny44]

I'm thinking South Carolina loses to FSU due to the play of Leticia Romero. South Carolina is the better team and should easily win, going with my gut feeling. North Carolina probably has the better athletes to upset South Carolina, but don't think South Carolina will allow a repeat of last year.

However the #1 seed that is in the most likely to be upset is Notre Dame. If Stanford play the same game they did against UConn they have a good shot. If they get by Stanford, they most likely play Baylor who plays great defense and can rebound to limit ND's second chance points.

A Dayton vs UConn has the potential to be interesting if UConn is unable to get out to a double digit lead. Dayton is fundamentally sound, has good size and don't miss Free Throws. If Dayton is able to keep the game close anything can happen like it did against Kentucky.

Look for Maryland to beat the Lady Vols to get to the Final Four. Maryland has the guards to beat the Vols and that's what wins Elite 8 games.

I think every team is at a loss trying to figure out how to stay close to UCONN. Not really understanding your reasoning here.

 

[AnotherVolFan]

Any team that has UCONN in the bracket as a "must beat" has the toughest path. IMO

 

[CamrnCrz1974]

The just a slightly different way to look at it in terms of realistic team expectations. For:
o UCONN- Anything but a NC is a disappointment.
o SC-Not making the final 4 would be a disappointment.
o ND-Not playing in the NC game would be a disappointment.
o MD- Not returning to the final 4 would be a disappointment.
o FSU, TENN, Baylor, NC, Duke -Not making a Regional Championship game would be a disappointment.
o TX and all others- Already overachieved no more disappointment for this season
Bottom line, some Team(s) will be disappointed.

Why would it be disappointing for Notre Dame to not play in the NC game? The team lost two starters from last year's runner-up squad - two of its three best players, in fact. Yes, a lot was expected of Notre Dame (top three in the preseason). But just making the Final Four after losing those key players with a young team would be impressive and quite the accomplishment.

And why would be it disappointing for Maryland to not make the Final Four? The team lost arguably the best player in its storied history in Alyssa Thomas. She was conference POY three times. She single-handedly carried the Terps to wins throughout her career. But Maryland has actually improved and played much better as a team stepping up together to replace Thomas's production.

And has Texas "already overachieved?" The program was ranked 9th by the Associated Press in the preseason and was in the top five before the conference season began.

Or perhaps, as you note, there are different ways to look at teams and different meanings of "team expectations." And the two of us simply have different opinions as to our expectations of these teams.

 

[Aluminny69]

Why would it be disappointing for Notre Dame to not play in the NC game? The team lost two starters from last year's runner-up squad - two of its three best players, in fact. Yes, a lot was expected of Notre Dame (top three in the preseason). But just making the Final Four after losing those key players with a young team would be impressive and quite the accomplishment.

Wouldn't this reasoning apply to UConn as well? After all, we not only lost two starters, but two All Americans as well. Believe me, a lot of people would be disappointed if UConn doesn't play in the NC game.

I just don't see a reason for different expectations from ND then from UConn.

 

[sarals24]

Texas had some big injuries, didn't they lose Atkins? I think the Sweet 16 is about right for them, honestly. I think Aston is doing a great job building that program back up.

In no universe can Dayton stay with UConn. They are very fundamentally sound, true, but UConn plays at a much faster pace and will run them off the court.

 

[AnotherVolFan]

I think as a player and coach of any team...not winning the Championship game would be a disappointment. Every team starts the year with one goal in mind...winning the National Championship from St. Francis Stoney Brooks of the worlds to UCONN. Not everyone has a realistic chance but that's still what they strive for.....I hope.

 

[Wbbfan1]

Before the Dayton vs Ky game, I believed Ky would win the game by double digits and easily dispose of Dayton. Yet, somehow every time Kentucky got out to almost a double digit lead here comes Dayton to tie the game and keep it close. UConn should get out to a Double Digit lead in the first 10-12 minutes of the game. However if they don't will Dayton keep it close like they did against Kentucky. All I'm saying if the game is within single digits toward the end;which it shouldn't be; then Dayton can make it interesting. UConn doesn't have that great of a record in games decided by less then 5 points. Of course these games are usually played against teams better than Dayton.

I think every team is at a loss trying to figure out how to stay close to UCONN. Not really understanding your reasoning here.

 

[cabbie191]

I think as a player and coach of any team...not winning the Championship game would be a disappointment. Every team starts the year with one goal in mind...winning the National Championship from St. Francis Stoney Brooks of the worlds to UCONN. Not everyone has a realistic chance but that's still what they strive for.....I hope.

There is disappointment perhaps, but there are also realistic expectations.

Many years ago, an acquaintance had a daughter on a mid-major team that had UConn on the schedule. Mel attended the game and spent time before and after with Sarah.

When he got back I asked how his daughter's team reacted to the game. Mel said that after the last practice before the game concluded, the team and coaches met and worked on goals for the contest. One of the goals was to not lose by more than 40 points. They lost by 38 if I recall correctly, and the team was elated. They played the best team in the county, saw excellence up front and personal, and they met their goal.

I don't remember which year this took place but it was one of the years we went undefeated.

 

[CamrnCrz1974]

Wouldn't this reasoning apply to UConn as well? After all, we not only lost two starters, but two All Americans as well. Believe me, a lot of people would be disappointed if UConn doesn't play in the NC game.

I just don't see a reason for different expectations from ND then from UConn.

UConn also returned All-Americans, including the two-time Most Outstanding Player of the Final Four. The returning roster of proven talent and All-American accolades was deeper at UConn than at Notre Dame. And UConn was still the consensus top pick based in large part on what was returning.

At the beginning of the season, if you were to tell me that UConn would make the Final Four, but not appear in the national championship game, I would have been surprised, but not shocked. Dolson and Hartley were great players. And TN (before Mercedes Russell's injury and Isabelle Harrison's injury) and South Carolina both had a lot coming back.

Personally, at the beginning of the year, I assumed UConn would still win the national title, but that the Huskies would not go undefeated.

Now, if you had told me at the end of the regular season that UConn would not make the national championship game, I would have been stunned.

 

[Paul1969]

Texas had some big injuries, didn't they lose Atkins? I think the Sweet 16 is about right for them, honestly. I think Aston is doing a great job building that program back up.

In no universe can Dayton stay with UConn. They are very fundamentally sound, true, but UConn plays at a much faster pace and will run them off the court.

Atkins is back after an injury. Their leading scorer/rebounder Senior Neka Enampali (Sp) is out with an ACL

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

I'm thinking South Carolina loses to FSU due to the play of Leticia Romero. South Carolina is the better team and should easily win, going with my gut feeling. North Carolina probably has the better athletes to upset South Carolina, but don't think South Carolina will allow a repeat of last year.

However the #1 seed that is in the most likely to be upset is Notre Dame. If Stanford play the same game they did against UConn they have a good shot. If they get by Stanford, they most likely play Baylor who plays great defense and can rebound to limit ND's second chance points.

A Dayton vs UConn has the potential to be interesting if UConn is unable to get out to a double digit lead. Dayton is fundamentally sound, has good size and don't miss Free Throws. If Dayton is able to keep the game close anything can happen like it did against Kentucky.

Look for Maryland to beat the Lady Vols to get to the Final Four. Maryland has the guards to beat the Vols and that's what wins Elite 8 games.

FSU would be tough, for sure, but they still have to beat ASU to get to the Elite Eight. One advantage that USC will have against FSU is that there will be an overwhelmingly Gamecock crowd in Greensboro. I expect us to have a much bigger fan presence than UNC, also, just based on the number of people I know who are making the trip and the poor attendance at UNC's first two games in CH.

 

[j66kicker]

Is everyone assuming Dayton is going to beat Louisville??

 

[triaddukefan]

FSU would be tough, for sure, but they still have to beat ASU to get to the Elite Eight. One advantage that USC will have against FSU is that there will be an overwhelmingly Gamecock crowd in Greensboro. I expect us to have a much bigger fan presence than UNC, also, just based on the number of people I know who are making the trip and the poor attendance at UNC's first two games in CH.

I will say this for Tar heel fans......... while they always trail Duke in home attendance.... ....... at the ACC tournament.... they always have a big fan presence here.... more than any other ACC school. Expect to see a lot of that ugly color blue in the stands Friday night.

 

[hussybulldog]

A Dayton vs UConn has the potential to be interesting if UConn is unable to get out to a double digit lead. Dayton is fundamentally sound, has good size and don't miss Free Throws. If Dayton is able to keep the game close anything can happen like it did against Kentucky.

Dayton might be hang around like BYU last year, close for the first 25 min but ultimately lose by almost 20. THat is my prediction for this game. I don't think they could fare better than last year's BYU. BYU's big last year was good! Surprised Geno did not ask her for the World championship trial.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

I will say this for Tar heel fans.... while they always trail Duke in home attendance.... .. at the ACC tournament.... they always have a big fan presence here.... more than any other ACC school. Expect to see a lot of that ugly color blue in the stands Friday night.

It will be interesting to see if they show up. I know it's not a scientific survey, by any means, but of all my friends who go to our home games, all but a couple are heading up to Greensboro this weekend. It's always a lot more fun when there's a big crowd, so I hope a lot of UNC fans DO show up. I'm sure there will only be a few ASU and FSU fans.

 

[Wbbfan1]

I'm not sure Dayton beats Louisville, just think Dayton has more potential to have an interesting game with UConn. Just like KY, Dayton should lose to Louisville because they have the better individual players. But if the game is close Dayton can win the game with their fundamentals and free throw shooting.

Don't think Louisville can beat UConn

Is everyone assuming Dayton is going to beat Louisville??