Scheduling as an Indication of Interest

[pj]

In this article (http://www.foxsports.com/wisconsin/...cost-of-big-ten-opponents-keeps-rising-060414) posted in another thread was the passage:

Of the Big Ten's 39 nonconference home games in 2014, only six feature a team from another power-five conference -- and all six are the result of some type of home-and-home series. Meanwhile, there are 22 games against non-power-five FBS teams and 11 against the FCS. Only four of those 33 contests feature a return game -- Indiana-North Texas, Michigan State-Eastern Michigan, Rutgers-Tulane and Wisconsin-South Florida.

UConn was having difficulty getting home and homes with P5 conferences and the B1G bailed us out, scheduling home-and-homes with Indiana and Illinois in 2019 and 2020 (http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa/aac/connecticut-huskies.php).

What are the odds of a non-P5 team getting 2 home-and-homes with the B1G in 2019-2020? Even in 2014, such series were rare - 4 per year, including Rutgers who scheduled before it was in the B1G - and they are getting rarer. If the B1G continued to schedule home-and-homes in 2019-2020 at the same rate as in 2014, then UConn is getting half of the whole conference's non-P5 away games.

Nothing new here, but it surely indicates that the B1G has interest in adding UConn. Either those games will become in-conference games by 2019 and are intended to ease the scheduling upheaval in a realignment transition, or they are meant to help sustain UConn football for a possible later add.

Greg Flugaur has suggested 2019 as a possible entry date for UConn - he attributes that date to the timing of the TV contracts. Scheduling would be supportive of that possibility.

AAC has a 27-month exit notice so we would look for an announcement in 2016-2017 for 2019 entry.

 

[MattMang23]

We also have home and homes with Virginia and Missouri, and have a series with Tennessee tabled. A lot of leagues have bailed us out.

 

[SubbaBub]

Best to put the Tennessee series out of our collective minds. It's as if it was never scheduled.

 

[BoatShow]

UConn will never play Tennessee in football and the return Missouri game will also never happen.

 

[dayooper]

Interesting topic. Looking at the Big10 non conference schedules, there are some interesting things that come out.

Virginia Tech - In the next nine years, they play OSU this year. Then, in a span of 2020 - 2024, they have scheduled home and homes with Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, Purdue, and Rutgers. The only other P5 schools that are on the the slate is a neutral site game with Tennessee in 2016 at Bristol Motor speedway, a series with WVU, and their ND games given to them by the ACC. No other SEC, no Big12, and no Pac12. Probably is nothing, but worth noting.

Other ACCschools mentioned in CR (not including ND) - UNC play Cal and Illinois, UVA plays Illinois, UCLA, Oregon, Stanford, BYU and UConn (last two are p5 schools in G5 conferences), BC play OSU and GT plays all SEC schools.

Oklahoma - They have scheduled three of the four football kings in the Big10, OSU (2016/2017), Nebraska (2020 - 2021), and Michigan (2025 - 2026). They have also scheduled UCLA (2018 -2019), and LSU (in 2027 - 2028). They have an extremely flexible schedule in that they have only 2 non conference games scheduled per year after 2016 and only one or none after 2020.


Kansas - Kansas has a very sparsely populated future non conference schedule after 2017. They play only two P5 schools in a span from 2015 a 2025, both Big10 (Rutgers in 2015 and 2018 and Illinois 2023-2024).

Texas - They play three Big10 schools (Maryland, OSU, and Michigan), two SEC schools (LSU and Arkansas), and two Pac schools (Cal and USC).

The other Big12 schools have space non conference schedules as well.

UConn - looked at above

The teams most played in the non conference by Big10 schools is, by far, VT (six times), followed by West Virginia, Oklahoma and Texas with three. Other multiples are UCLA, Oregon, Syracuse, and Virginia with 2.

VT is a very interesting study. Out of all the schools future non conference schedules I looked at (about 20 P5 schools), VT was the only one that was filled with four games through 2025, except one year. No other school had more than 2 or occasnally three after 2020. The one year they didnt have four, 2022, VT has only three games scheduled with no Big10 teams. The funny thing is that's the only year after 2019 that does not have a Big10 team scheduled! In fact, every year after 2022 has two Big10 teams, one each from the East and West.

Does this mean anything? Probably not. It could be nothing more than VT trying to cozy up to the Big10 for familiarity purposes regarding academics. It could be that PSU and Rutgers (and WVU) are just the closest P5 schools to them they want to play. To me, it just seemed almost too convenient to ignore. VT coulde easily fold those games into a Big10 conference schedule.

 

[Fishy]

This thread has the potential to take grasping at straws to new levels.

There is absolutely nothing to this.

 

[CAHUSKY]

This thread has the potential to take grasping at straws to new levels.

There is absolutely nothing to this.

Balderdash, I read it to mean the Big10 (Indiana, Illinois), ACC (Virginia) and SEC (Missouri) are all fighting over us!

 

[pj]

The Virginia series was scheduled in 2010 (http://www.fbschedules.com/2010/10/...e-football-series-virginia-western-michigan/f) and we may not get home games from Missouri or Tennessee. Since we lost BCS status, the B1G has been the only P5 partner willing to schedule us.

Balderdash, I read it to mean the Big10 (Indiana, Illinois), ACC (Virginia) and SEC (Missouri) are all fighting over us!

If Missouri gives us a home game, @TruDomGopher is right -- Missouri to the B1G!

 

[pj]

The teams most played in the non conference by Big10 schools is, by far, VT (six times), followed by West Virginia, Oklahoma and Texas with three. Other multiples are UCLA, Oregon, Syracuse, and Virginia with 2.

In your list, UConn would place second with 4 games by 2020.

UConn has 4 B1G games 2019-2020. VT has no B1G games 2016-2019, one in 2020 and 2021 (both Michigan), none in 2022 but an open slot, then 2 B1G schools a year 2023-2025. (http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa/acc/virginia-tech-hokies.php).

If non-conference scheduling is a strategic conference-led decision, this tags Va Tech and UConn as #15 and #16. It also suggests UConn entering in 2019 and Va Tech in 2023.

The ACC TV contract and GoR expires in 2027, but the damages for breaching a GoR are proportional to the number of years remaining, and it could be that the B1G has calculated that the damages will be manageable by 2023. Alternatively, there were rumors that the ACC GoR was conditioned on formation of an ACC network, and it could be that the milestone for network formation was 2022-3, so if an ACCN is not in place, the GoR might terminate.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Take a lap guys and try again tomorrow.

 

[dayooper]

In your list, UConn would place second with 4 games by 2020.

UConn has 4 B1G games 2019-2020. VT has no B1G games 2016-2019, one in 2020 and 2021 (both Michigan), none in 2022 but an open slot, then 2 B1G schools a year 2023-2025. (http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa/acc/virginia-tech-hokies.php).

If non-conference scheduling is a strategic conference-led decision, this tags Va Tech and UConn as #15 and #16. It also suggests UConn entering in 2019 and Va Tech in 2023.

The ACC TV contract and GoR expires in 2027, but the damages for breaching a GoR are proportional to the number of years remaining, and it could be that the B1G has calculated that the damages will be manageable by 2023. Alternatively, there were rumors that the ACC GoR was conditioned on formation of an ACC network, and it could be that the milestone for network formation was 2022-3, so if an ACCN is not in place, the GoR might terminate.

First of all, I really don't think that this means anything. It just caught my eye.

That being said, let's really get speculative here and look at VT's schedule in 2019 - 2022.

2019: Furman, Old Dominion, East Carolina, Notre Dame. If VT leaves The ACC at any time, my guess is that the ND will be pulled and given to the replacement. That leaves nine open games.

2020: They play 2 Big10 teams, no issue.

2021: Michigan, Richmond, WVU, ND. Even if the ND isn't pulled, there are still nine open games.

2022: East Carolina, WVU, Old Dominion. As long as there is a nine game schedule, that's not an issue either. If The Big10 goes to a ten game schedule before this, that it's an issue. Otherwise? It's fine.

Again, I'm just having fun playing with the speculation here. I do believe that out of the viable Eastern partners for UConn, VT is the most willing. That's not saying much, as I think UVA and UNC are ACC to the bone. The big question is getting past the GoR.

BTW - VT has 11 games against Big10 teams in the next nine years. Oklahoma has six.

 

[btstimpy]

Interesting topic. Looking at the Big10 non conference schedules, there are some interesting things that come out.

Virginia Tech - In the next nine years, they play OSU this year. Then, in a span of 2020 - 2024, they have scheduled home and homes with Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, Purdue, and Rutgers. The only other P5 schools that are on the the slate is a neutral site game with Tennessee in 2016 at Bristol Motor speedway, a series with WVU, and their ND games given to them by the ACC. No other SEC, no Big12, and no Pac12. Probably is nothing, but worth noting.

Other ACCschools mentioned in CR (not including ND) - UNC play Cal and Illinois, UVA plays Illinois, UCLA, Oregon, Stanford, BYU and UConn (last two are p5 schools in G5 conferences), BC play OSU and GT plays all SEC schools.

Oklahoma - They have scheduled three of the four football kings in the Big10, OSU (2016/2017), Nebraska (2020 - 2021), and Michigan (2025 - 2026). They have also scheduled UCLA (2018 -2019), and LSU (in 2027 - 2028). They have an extremely flexible schedule in that they have only 2 non conference games scheduled per year after 2016 and only one or none after 2020.


Kansas - Kansas has a very sparsely populated future non conference schedule after 2017. They play only two P5 schools in a span from 2015 a 2025, both Big10 (Rutgers in 2015 and 2018 and Illinois 2023-2024).

Texas - They play three Big10 schools (Maryland, OSU, and Michigan), two SEC schools (LSU and Arkansas), and two Pac schools (Cal and USC).

The other Big12 schools have space non conference schedules as well.

UConn - looked at above

The teams most played in the non conference by Big10 schools is, by far, VT (six times), followed by West Virginia, Oklahoma and Texas with three. Other multiples are UCLA, Oregon, Syracuse, and Virginia with 2.

VT is a very interesting study. Out of all the schools future non conference schedules I looked at (about 20 P5 schools), VT was the only one that was filled with four games through 2025, except one year. No other school had more than 2 or occasnally three after 2020. The one year they didnt have four, 2022, VT has only three games scheduled with no Big10 teams. The funny thing is that's the only year after 2019 that does not have a Big10 team scheduled! In fact, every year after 2022 has two Big10 teams, one each from the East and West.

Does this mean anything? Probably not. It could be nothing more than VT trying to cozy up to the Big10 for familiarity purposes regarding academics. It could be that PSU and Rutgers (and WVU) are just the closest P5 schools to them they want to play. To me, it just seemed almost too convenient to ignore. VT coulde easily fold those games into a Big10 conference schedule.

The former AD at VT, Jim Weaver, went on a Big Ten scheduling fetish in his old age right before he retired. He went hog wild. The current AD, Whit Babcock, has recently spent some time spreading out the games because Weaver had bunched them up. Weaver is a former Penn State football player. He said many times in interviews that VT should be playing Big Ten and SEC schools. They've played Alabama twice in Atlanta. Now here come the Big Ten. Frank Beamer has spent his career preferring games with the MAC and the SunBelt teams OOC. Weaver chose to give him more challenge. Beating up on Austin Peay, Ohio, Western Michigan, UAB, Miami (OH), and Marshall has run its course I guess.

The UVA assistant AD for football has developed a similar fetish for the PAC12 and Mountain West. We've had Oregon, USC, UCLA, and Stanford put on the schedule along with Boise State, Wyoming, and BYU. While the novelty is nice, it doesn't help football recruiting at all. Fans are trying to encourage a change of course to add stuff like Tulane, South Florida, Memphis, and any SEC West school. We have Illinois and UConn, which are good for fan bases in Chicago and NY. Rutgers and Northwestern could be similarly helpful. But enough with the west coast already. We don't recruit there.

 

[dayooper]

The former AD at VT, Jim Weaver, went on a Big Ten scheduling fetish in his old age right before he retired. He went hog wild. The current AD, Whit Babcock, has recently spent some time spreading out the games because Weaver had bunched them up. Weaver is a former Penn State football player. He said many times in interviews that VT should be playing Big Ten and SEC schools. They've played Alabama twice in Atlanta. Now here come the Big Ten. Frank Beamer has spent his career preferring games with the MAC and the SunBelt teams OOC. Weaver chose to give him more challenge. Beating up on Austin Peay, Ohio, Western Michigan, UAB, Miami (OH), and Marshall has run its course I guess.

The UVA assistant AD for football has developed a similar fetish for the PAC12 and Mountain West. We've had Oregon, USC, UCLA, and Stanford put on the schedule along with Boise State, Wyoming, and BYU. While the novelty is nice, it doesn't help football recruiting at all. Fans are trying to encourage a change of course to add stuff like Tulane, South Florida, Memphis, and any SEC West school. We have Illinois and UConn, which are good for fan bases in Chicago and NY. Rutgers and Northwestern could be similarly helpful. But enough with the west coast already. We don't recruit there.

When did Weaver retire?

 

[Fishy]

When did Weaver retire?

He retired at the end of 2013 - had some rather serious physical ailments in addition to Parkinson's.

 

[dayooper]

He retired at the end of 2013 - had some rather serious physical ailments in addition to Parkinson's.

Thanks

 

[Vuce]

It is amazing the longer we are left out of a P5 league the more outlandish theories of "signs" we are getting in one pop up here.

 

[Husky92]

It is amazing the longer we are left out of a P5 league the more outlandish theories of "signs" we are getting in one pop up here.

Hey, my banana looked just like Delany this morning. I swear it!

 

[pj]

It is amazing the longer we are left out of a P5 league the more outlandish theories of "signs" we are getting in one pop up here.

This sign has been around for over a year, and has been discussed here, longevity of time in the AAC is not a factor. But since not much will happen until the B1G negotiates its TV deal, there is little to do but pore over already-perused tea leaves.

 

[billybud]

Miami is playing Nebraska, Rutgers, and Michigan State...Miami to the B1G!

 

[TruDomGopher]

Ours is not to do or die,
Ours is but to reason why...

 

[Stray_Dog]

This thread has the potential to take grasping at straws to new levels.

There is absolutely nothing to this.

...but but I swear I saw a shadow! let me chase it, and around and around she goes! - what a dumb dog, but we'll forgive her because she's cute in reference to no one in particular just the thread topic!

 

[buddy]

Miami is playing Nebraska, Rutgers, and Michigan State...Miami to the B1G!

I have tried to refrain from responding to you, but you are truly a bad guy.

 

[billybud]

Buddy...I posted the same thing that Fishy did....just in a different way. There is no sarcasm font, unfortunately. That scheduling shtick is, like Fishy posted, "grasping at straws".

You are such a nut case.

 

[Seaa Blue]

Miami to the B1G was actually a topic of discussion when it looked like FSU was on the table. An FSU/MIAMI combo might have made some sense, even though they're at opposite ends of the state. Miami is worthy academically even though they're not AAU, FSU perhaps as an athletic grab. But I don't think the people that matter ever thought much about it.

 

[billybud]

The twitteratti had FSU-Miami going to the Big 12, also going to the B1G...Clemson-FSU to the Big 12, Miami-BYU to the Big 12, Virginia to the B1G, VT to the SEC or B1G, GT to the B1G, and a myriad other combinations.

How many had any serious underpinnings? We don't know but I'll guess that most of these postings were speculative based on the author's view of football realities.