Relegation Similation...BCS Era

[billybud]

This analysis was performed by Texasjeremy on a Big 12 board and I have lifted it....He did not mistake spelling of simulation...my finger hit wrong key and I can't seem to correct title.


Say we do this (using cfbdatawarehouse all-time ranking, http://www.cfbdatawarehouse.co...am_rankings.php), putting teams into 10 groups of 8. I will start at the beginning of the BCS era and see what it would look like today after promotion/relegation (2 up, 2 down per year). When I started this, I had no idea what the results would look like at the end. It appears the name of the game is have some good years, but DO NOT bottom out for a sustained amount of time.

BEGINING OF BCS ERA
DIVISION 1
Alabama
LSU
Michigan
Nebraska
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Southern Cal
Tennessee
Texas

DIVISION 2
Auburn
Florida
Florida State
Georgia
Georgia Tech
Miami
Minnesota
Penn State
Texas A&M
Washington

DIVISION 3
Arkansas
California
Illinois
Iowa
Michigan State
Mississippi
Pittsburgh
Stanford
UCLA
Wisconsin

DIVISION 4
Baylor
Clemson
Colorado
Missouri
Northwestern
Oregon
Purdue
Syracuse
TCU
Vanderbilt

DIVISION 5
Army
Indiana
Kansas
Kentucky
Mississippi State
Navy
North Carolina
Rice
SMU
Tulane

DIVISION 6
Duke
Kansas State
Maryland
Oklahoma State
Oregon State
South Carolina
Texas Tech
Virginia Tech
Washington State
West Virginia

DIVISION 7
Arizona
Arizona State
Boston College
Houston
Iowa State
NC State
Rutgers
Tulsa
Virginia
Wake Forest

DIVISION 8
Air Force
Boise State
BYU
Cincinnati
Louisiana Tech
Louisville
Miami (OH)
San Diego State
Southern Miss
Utah

1998
D1 - UP: N/A ----- DOWN: LSU & Oklahoma
D2 - UP: Florida & Florida State ----- DOWN: Auburn & Minnesota
D3 - UP: UCLA & Wisconsin ----- DOWN: Illinois & Pittsburgh
D4 - UP: Missouri & Purdue ----- DOWN: Northwestern & Vanderbilt
D5 - UP: Mississippi State & Tulane ----- DOWN: Army & Navy
D6 - UP: Kansas State & Virginia Tech ----- DOWN: Maryland & South Carolina
D7 - UP: Arizona & Virginia ----- DOWN: Rutgers & Wake Forest
D8 - UP: Air Force & Southern Miss ----- DOWN: N/A

1999
D1 - UP: N/A ----- DOWN: Notre Dame & Southern Cal
D2 - UP: Penn State & Wisconsin ----- DOWN: LSU & UCLA
D3 - UP: Michigan State & Minnesota ----- DOWN: Iowa & Missouri
D4 - UP: Illinois & Mississippi State ----- DOWN: Baylor & Tulane
D5 - UP: Kansas State & Virginia Tech ----- DOWN: Northwestern & SMU
D6 - UP: Oregon State & Virginia ----- DOWN: Army & Washington State
D7 - UP: Air Force & Southern Miss ----- DOWN: South Carolina & Tulsa
D8 - UP: BYU & Utah ----- DOWN: N/A

2000
D1 - UP: N/A ----- DOWN: Alabama & Penn State
D2 - UP: Oklahoma & Miami ----- DOWN: Michigan State & Minnesota
D3 - UP: Mississippi State & Purdue ----- DOWN: California & Illinois
D4 - UP: Kansas State & Virginia Tech ----- DOWN: Iowa & Missouri
D5 - UP: Oregon State & Virginia ----- DOWN: Baylor & Rice
D6 - UP: Northwestern & Southern Miss ----- DOWN: Duke & Navy
D7 - UP: Boston College & Iowa State ----- DOWN: Army & Houston
D8 - UP: Boise State & South Carolina ----- DOWN: N/A

2001
D1 - UP: N/A ----- DOWN: Ohio State & Wisconsin
D2 - UP: Georgia & Washington ----- DOWN: Mississippi State & Purdue
D3 - UP: LSU & Stanford ----- DOWN: Minnesota & Mississippi
D4 - UP: Colorado & Oregon ----- DOWN: California & TCU
D5 - UP: Iowa & North Carolina ----- DOWN: Tulane & Vanderbilt
D6 - UP: Boston College & Texas Tech ----- DOWN: Baylor & SMU
D7 - UP: Maryland & Washington State ----- DOWN: Duke & Navy
D8 - UP: Louisville & Wake Forest ----- DOWN: N/A

2002
D1 - UP: N/A ----- DOWN: Nebraska & Washington
D2 - UP: Ohio State & Southern Cal ----- DOWN: Stanford & Texas A&M
D3 - UP: Auburn & Kansas State ----- DOWN: Michigan State & Mississippi State
D4 - UP: Iowa & Pittsburgh ----- DOWN: North Carolina & Syracuse
D5 - UP: Boston College & Texas Tech ----- DOWN: Kansas & Northwestern
D6 - UP: Maryland & Washington State ----- DOWN: Rice & Vanderbilt
D7 - UP: Boise State & NC State ----- DOWN: Baylor & SMU
D8 - UP: Cincinnati & Miami (OH) ----- DOWN: N/A

2003
D1 - UP: N/A ----- DOWN: Florida & Tennessee
D2 - UP: Kansas State & LSU ----- DOWN: Penn State & Washington
D3 - UP: Arkansas & Iowa ----- DOWN: Stanford & Texas A&M
D4 - UP: Clemson & Mississippi ----- DOWN: Illinois & Mississippi State
D5 - UP: Maryland & Washington State ----- DOWN: Indiana & North Carolina
D6 - UP: Boise State & NC State ----- DOWN: Iowa State & Tulane
D7 - UP: Miami (OH) & Utah ----- DOWN: Rice & Vanderbilt
D8 - UP: Navy & San Diego State ----- DOWN: N/A

2004
D1 - UP: N/A ----- DOWN: Kansas State & Ohio State
D2 - UP: Auburn & Iowa ----- DOWN: Alabama & Nebraska
D3 - UP: Purdue & Virginia Tech ----- DOWN: Mississippi & Washington
D4 - UP: Oregon State & Texas Tech ----- DOWN: Michigan State & Washington State
D5 - UP: Boise State & California ----- DOWN: Kentucky & Mississippi State
D6 - UP: Oklahoma State & Utah ----- DOWN: Indiana & Miami (OH)
D7 - UP: Arizona State & Louisville ----- DOWN: San Diego State & Tulane
D8 - UP: Duke & Louisiana Tech ---- DOWN: N/A

2005
D1 - UP: N/A ----- DOWN: Florida State & Iowa
D2 - UP: Ohio State & Virginia Tech ----- DOWN: Arkansas & Kansas State
D3 - UP: Penn State & UCLA ----- DOWN: Oregon State & Pittsburgh
D4 - UP: Boston College & Minnesota ----- DOWN: Mississippi & Washington
D5 - UP: NC State & TCU ----- DOWN: Illinois & Syracuse
D6 - UP: Louisville & West Virginia ----- DOWN: Kentucky & Mississippi State
D7 - UP: Iowa State & South Carolina ----- DOWN: Cincinnati & Duke
D8 - UP: Rutgers & Tulsa ----- DOWN: N/A

2006
D1 - UP: N/A ----- DOWN: Miami & Virginia Tech
D2 - UP: Florida & Wisconsin ----- DOWN: Iowa & Purdue
D3 - UP: Arkansas & Boston College ----- DOWN: Colorado & Kansas State
D4 - UP: Boise State & California ----- DOWN: NC State & Stanford
D5 - UP: Louisville & West Virginia ----- DOWN: Michigan State & Mississippi
D6 - UP: Arizona State & South Carolina ----- DOWN: Illinois & North Carolina
D7 - UP: BYU & Rutgers ----- DOWN: Louisiana Tech & Miami (OH)
D8 - UP: Cincinnati & Houston ----- DOWN: N/A

2007
D1 - UP: N/A ----- DOWN: Michigan & Wisconsin
D2 - UP: Tennessee & Virginia Tech ----- DOWN: Miami & Notre Dame
D3 - UP: Clemson & Oregon ----- DOWN: Iowa & Minnesota
D4 - UP: Oregon State & West Virginia ----- DOWN: Colorado & Pittsburgh
D5 - UP: Arizona State & Missouri ----- DOWN: Southern Miss & Stanford
D6 - UP: BYU & Kansas ----- DOWN: Iowa State & Syracuse
D7 - UP: Cincinnati & Kentucky ----- DOWN: Houston & Navy
D8 - UP: San Diego State & Vanderbilt ----- DOWN: N/A

2008
D1 - UP: N/A ----- DOWN: Auburn & Tennessee
D2 - UP: Oregon & Penn State ----- DOWN: Michigan & UCLA
D3 - UP: Alabama & Texas Tech ----- DOWN: Notre Dame & Purdue
D4 - UP: Missouri & TCU ----- DOWN: Louisville & Texas A&M
D5 - UP: Oklahoma State & Utah ----- DOWN: Washington & Washington State
D6 - UP: Arizona & Mississippi ----- DOWN: Air Force & Southern Miss
D7 - UP: North Carolina & Wake Forest ----- DOWN: Indiana & San Diego State
D8 - UP: Navy & Rice ----- DOWN: N/A

2009
D1 - UP: N/A ----- DOWN: Georgia & Southern Cal
D2 - UP: Alabama & Georgia Tech ----- DOWN: Boston College & Tennessee
D3 - UP: Boise State & TCU ----- DOWN: Michigan & Missouri
D4 - UP: Iowa & Utah ----- DOWN: Maryland & Purdue
D5 - UP: BYU & Pittsburgh ----- DOWN: Colorado & Louisville
D6 - UP: Cincinnati & Stanford ----- DOWN: Northwestern & Washington State
D7 - UP: Air Force & Navy ----- DOWN: Rice & Vanderbilt
D8 - UP: Houston & SMU ----- DOWN: N/A

2010
D1 - UP: N/A ----- DOWN: Georgia Tech & Texas
D2 - UP: Auburn & TCU ----- DOWN: Clemson & Georgia
D3 - UP: Iowa & Utah ----- DOWN: Tennessee & UCLA
D4 - UP: Missouri & Oklahoma State ----- DOWN: Minnesota & Virginia
D5 - UP: NC State & Stanford ----- DOWN: Kansas & Purdue
D6 - UP: Michigan State & Washington ----- DOWN: Rutgers & Wake Forest
D7 - UP: Mississippi State & Tulsa ----- DOWN: Houston & SMU
D8 - UP: Baylor & San Diego State ----- DOWN: N/A

2011
D1 - UP: N/A ----- DOWN: Auburn & Ohio State
D2 - UP: Arkansas & Wisconsin ----- DOWN: Georgia Tech & Texas Tech
D3 - UP: Missouri & Oklahoma State ----- DOWN: Boston College & Oregon State
D4 - UP: Michigan & Stanford ----- DOWN: Pittsburgh & UCLA
D5 - UP: South Carolina & Texas A&M ----- DOWN: Maryland & Mississippi
D6 - UP: Mississippi State & Tulsa ----- DOWN: Colorado & Kansas
D7 - UP: Baylor & Southern Miss ----- DOWN: Syracuse & Washington State
D8 - UP: Houston & Vanderbilt ----- DOWN: N/A

2012
D1 - UP: N/A ----- DOWN: Arkansas & Virginia Tech
D2 - UP: Florida State & Ohio State ----- DOWN: Auburn & Iowa
D3 - UP: Georgia & Stanford ----- DOWN: California & Miami
D4 - UP: Notre Dame & Texas A&M ----- DOWN: Boston College & NC State
D5 - UP: Michigan State & UCLA ----- DOWN: Minnesota & Virginia
D6 - UP: Baylor & Mississippi ----- DOWN: Air Force & Southern Miss
D7 - UP: Northwestern & Vanderbilt ----- DOWN: Colorado & Illinois
D8 - UP: Louisiana Tech & Syracuse ----- DOWN: N/A

2013
D1 - UP: N/A ----- DOWN: Florida & Penn State
D2 - UP: Missouri & Stanford ----- DOWN: Arkansas & Boise State
D3 - UP: Auburn & Clemson ----- DOWN: Michigan & West Virginia
D4 - UP: Michigan State & UCLA ----- DOWN: California & Tennessee
D5 - UP: Baylor & Washington ----- DOWN: NC State & Tulsa
D6 - UP: Louisville & Vanderbilt ----- DOWN: Purdue & Virginia
D7 - UP: Houston & Syracuse ----- DOWN: Louisiana Tech & Southern Miss
D8 - UP: Duke & Washington State ----- DOWN: N/A

END OF BCS ERA
DIVISION 1
Alabama
Florida State
LSU
Missouri
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oregon
Stanford
TCU
Wisconsin

DIVISION 2
Auburn
Clemson
Florida
Georgia
Oklahoma State
Penn State
Southern Cal
Texas
Utah
Virginia Tech

DIVISION 3
Arkansas
Boise State
Georgia Tech
Iowa
Michigan State
Nebraska
Notre Dame
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
UCLA

DIVISION 4
Arizona State
BYU
Baylor
Kansas State
Miami
Michigan
Oregon State
South Carolina
Washington
West Virginia

DIVISION 5
Arizona
Boston College
California
Cincinnati
Louisville
Mississippi
Mississippi State
Pittsburgh
Tennessee
Vanderbilt

DIVISION 6
Houston
Kentucky
Maryland
Minnesota
NC State
Navy
North Carolina
Northwestern
Syracuse
Tulsa

DIVISION 7
Air Force
Duke
Iowa State
Kansas
Purdue
Rutgers
San Diego State
Virginia
Wake Forest
Washington State

DIVISION 8
Army
Colorado
Illinois
Indiana
Louisiana Tech
Miami (OH)
Rice
SMU
Southern Miss
Tulane

 

[pepband99]

Why post here if it doesn't include us? (which basically makes the list crap)

 

[billybud]

Actually... I wondered at the methodology...he had Tulane, which surprised me.

If you like, I can delete the analysis.

 

[pj]

Yeah. We should enter in 2003. Why are Tulane, Southern Miss, SMU, Rice, Miami (OH), Louisiana Tech, and Army included based on pre-BCS performance, but not UConn, an actual BCS team?

You can see why the cutoff was set at 80, to keep out teams like #81 Lafayette (PA), #83 Lehigh (PA), #84 Holy Cross (MA), #86 Mount Union (OH), #87 Columbia, #88 North Dakota State, #89 University of Chicago, #93 Texas A&M-Kingsville, #94 Bucknell, #95 Villanova, #96 Furman, #98 Saint John's (MN), #100 Wisconsin-Whitewater, #101 Washington & Jefferson (PA), #105 Linfield (OR), #106 Wittenberg (OH). And so on. Yet somehow UConn did not even make the list: http://www.cfbdatawarehouse.com/data/rankings/all_time_team_rankings.php

It could have been a mildly interesting exercise if you included all of the P5 and top G5 teams today, and sorted them for standing. But it would still have major difficulties. In relegation systems the teams in a group play each other, so their records distinguish who is best in the group. How do you compare a Southern Mississippi in CUSA with Illinois of the B1G based on records? Who knows who is better?

 

[BHusky]

This lost credibility having Army included in the top 80 at the beginning and end of the BCS era over us. Army has had 1 season at .500 or better since the BCS era. That is the epitome of being bottomed out for a sustained period of time.

 

[billybud]

Maybe what is going on is that UConn was not a IA program in 1998 (while Army was)....UConn was a transitional !A program in 2000-01.

UConn's first win over a IA opponent was on Sept 16, 2000...a win over Buffalo.

 

[whaler11]

Maybe what is going on is that UConn was not a IA program in 1998 (while Army was)....UConn was a transitional !A program in 2000-01.

UConn's first win over a IA opponent was on Sept 16, 2000...a win over Buffalo.

Thanks for the history lesson. Now that you've got us up to speed, you can probably find something more productive to do with your time.

 

[buddy]

Thanks for the history lesson. Now that you've got us up to speed, you can probably find something more productive to do with your time.

He just cannot accept that like BC, FSU is afraid of UConn. Can you imagine what would happen in Tallahassee when UConn beats FSU in football in a couple of years!

 

[The Funster]

He just cannot accept that like BC, FSU is afraid of UConn. Can you imagine what would happen in Tallahassee when UConn beats FSU in football in a couple of years!

Haha it would be funny to see FSU fans chalk up UConn as a "good loss" for them.

 

[buddy]

Haha it would be funny to see FSU fans chalk up UConn as a "good loss" for them.

It will happen some day.

 

[uconnell]

It will happen some day.

Soon