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Recruiting question

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The problem, as I see it, is some coaches are able to recognize and develop underrated 2* talent. Edsall proved capable. Diaco has not. So attributing that success to "UConn" rather than the coaches is flawed. And to expect what Edsall was able to accomplish to continue regardless of who is the coach, again, flawed, as evidenced by the performance on the field.

No evidence on Diaco.

Can you say he never will be as good an evaluator as Edsall? Sure. Can you say he might be a better evaluator (with his total staff)? Sure.

The January 2014 pickups are just not a good view of what Diaco does with recruiting. And the 2* talent (or 3* on more favored ESPN), tells little. We will get the first indication of what he did on Feb. 4 in about October; with whispers in August. I really really hope that Tyler Davis is a home run. If we just got one QB that is ahead of the curve, I would feel a lot better.
 
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That's a valid opionion - but suggesting otherwise, without evidence, is "flawed" is going to far.

I think it had more to do with the guru's discounting players from the northeast more so than Edsall developing.

I don't understand your first sentence.

Regarding the second: I'm sure that played/plays a part as well.
 

IMind

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You say just because we didn't compete with WVU we weren't mediocre, but the RECORD in the Big East (remember we only played WVU 7 times in 7 years) was 20-23. That's not revisionist, it's a fact. We were below .500 more often than above it. That's not revisionist, it's a fact. If people are going to claim we regularly beat teams with higher rated recruits, then the record should reflect that, it doesn't. We were competitive, never really bad, but also never really good.

We didn't regularly beat teams with higher rated recruits, or else we wouldn't have been 20-23 in the Big East.

We always had the last or near the last recruiting class in the Big East... so every time we beat a Big East team we were beating a team with a better recruiting class. I guess you have a different definition of regularly... Yes we didn't ALWAYS beat them... we didn't even MOSTLY beat them... but we did it with regularity. We had ABYSMALLY rated recruiting classes under Edsall.
 
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No evidence on Diaco.

Can you say he never will be as good an evaluator as Edsall? Sure. Can you say he might be a better evaluator (with his total staff)? Sure.

The January 2014 pickups are just not a good view of what Diaco does with recruiting. And the 2* talent (or 3* on more favored ESPN), tells little. We will get the first indication of what he did on Feb. 4 in about October; with whispers in August. I really really hope that Tyler Davis is a home run. If we just got one QB that is ahead of the curve, I would feel a lot better.

We won't know how he did until 2017 at the earliest. If Tyler Davis is a home run Diaco instantly becomes one of the most important/best recruiters we've ever had. LOL
 
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We always had the last or near the last recruiting class in the Big East... so every time we beat a Big East team we were beating a team with a better recruiting class. I guess you have a different definition of regularly... Yes we didn't ALWAYS beat them... we didn't even MOSTLY beat them... but we did it with regularity. We had ABYSMALLY rated recruiting classes under Edsall.

I remember us typically finishing around 5th-8th in recruiting. In the standings, our mean finish was 4th, mode was ironically (5th and 1st - both twice), and median was 5th. Yes, we overachieved. Yes, Edsall showed it's possible to out-punch your rankings. But we finished below .500 more often than above it. And yes, I think my point stands. We've got to do better in order to be dominant rather than competitive. And to get where we want to go, we need to be dominant, not competitive.
 

sdhusky

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I don't understand your first sentence.

Regarding the second: I'm sure that played/plays a part as well.

You wrote "So attributing that success to "UConn" rather than the coaches is flawed. "

I'm not sure its flawed. Maybe the success is because UConn recruits are not evaluated as closely. Maybe NE recruits are evaluated as closely.

Here is my point - if Jones went to FSU, they would have really watched his HS tape and had a real evaluation.

Since he went to UConn, I think he got barely noticed and a default 2 star.
 

IMind

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Your argument about Rich Rod at WVU has been addressed and disproven by whaler in another thread.

Rich Rod's recruiting classes were usually between 40-60 at West Virgina and yet he had top 10 teams. Explain to me how that doesn't support my position... that recruiting rankings are crap... and that you can win consistently with players overlooked by top programs and unranked by major recruiting sites. That's not just a minor variation... that's a consistent flaw over nearly 10 years. You guys want to argue that somehow because he pulled Jason Gwaltney in one year and Steve Slaton had an offer pulled by Maryland that he wasn't consistently winning with recruiting classes well outside the top 25...

It works both ways... there are tons of great recruiting classes that never amount to anything. I'll say it again... when Nick Saban is coaching Alabama... recruiting rankings are a great predictor of success... when Mike Shula is... not so much.
 
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It works both ways... there are tons of great recruiting classes that never amount to anything. I'll say it again... when Nick Saban is coaching Alabama... recruiting rankings are a great predictor of success... when Mike Shula is... not so much.

Excellent point. USC with Lane Kiffin and USC with Pete Carroll were getting the approximate same ratings by recruiting. There is just something inherent in the rankings that automatically places certain legacy programs at the top and the Stars are disseminated accordingly.

If Diaco wins 5 early 3 Star kids from Maryland & New Jersey this Spring, I will be as happy as any of the Boneyard. That's not at the core of what has succeeded here: 2 Stars from Nashua or New Britain or Soccer players from Edinboro, PA. Going forward (unlike HCRE), I think Diaco has to have found those guys. Let's hope the Feb 4 haul has a bunch. Elbowing our way to winning the bigger & more desirable as soon as possible.
 
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You wrote "So attributing that success to "UConn" rather than the coaches is flawed. "

I'm not sure its flawed. Maybe the success is because UConn recruits are not evaluated as closely. Maybe NE recruits are evaluated as closely.

Here is my point - if Jones went to FSU, they would have really watched his HS tape and had a real evaluation.

Since he went to UConn, I think he got barely noticed and a default 2 star.

But you can't make that same claim about ALL Uconn recruits. There's truth to the argument some of the 2 star recruits we get out of New England have been our biggest success stories, but not all of our recruits come out of New England (2* or otherwise). Most don't come from New England.

We've landed a bunch of 2* guys from New Jersey over the years, NJ is a recruiting hotbed, the best state in the north east for recruiting. Can't make the same argument for Jones as you can John Robinson our recruit out of NJ who only had Albany as another offer. Kid could be the next Darius Butler, who knows. But you can't say he wasn't evaluated because he's from New England.

Looking back at the 2009 and 10 classes, they clearly missed on 3 or 4 players in each class, but out of 21-23 players, that's really not bad.
 
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@IMind

I've said several times that it comes down to coaching. If you guys want to ignore/overlook that, because you disagree with me, that's your call. But I've said coaching is what matters most.

We don't know what we've got in Diaco in terms of development. I can think of one person who would argue he did a good job "coaching" last year. He likes to pretend message boards are dangerous to programs. Maybe Diaco and staff were focused on program building at the expense of coaching, I don't know. But if we don't get better coaching, we'll need better recruiting. He obviously gets an incomplete for development. It will take years to grade him on that.

(when I say "Diaco" i mean him, and his entire staff)
 

IMind

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@IMind

I've said several times that it comes down to coaching. If you guys want to ignore/overlook that, because you disagree with me, that's your call. But I've said coaching is what matters most.

We don't know what we've got in Diaco in terms of development. I can think of one person who would argue he did a good job "coaching" last year. He likes to pretend message boards are dangerous to programs. Maybe Diaco and staff were focused on program building at the expense of coaching, I don't know. But if we don't get better coaching, we'll need better recruiting. He obviously gets an incomplete for development. It will take years to grade him on that.

(when I say "Diaco" i mean him, and his entire staff)

Believe it or not... I actually think Edsall under performed his talent. I can think of several games (against Rutgers) where we should have won the game based on the talent on the field and the coaching fell short... I just think the book is out on Diaco's recruiting class and we have no real way of knowing how good or talented it is... and that our recruiting rankings don't say anything about it... either way. I get particularly annoyed when people appeal to recruiting rankings and even offers as a way to evaluate the class. There's just no real good way to do it short of waiting a few years and seeing how things go. I also don't think I'm naive for thinking that there are great 4-5* caliber players out there in New England, Upstate NY, Eastern PA, and Canada that get missed when I've seen evidence of it over and over again... and we need to continue to find kids like that if we want to excel.. which will ultimate hurt our recruiting rankings.
 
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June 28th

So ... you opened the door on another piece. John Robinson, as many do, tell all that are knocking on their door that they are COMMITTED. There are a lot of months between June 28th, 2014 and February 4, 2015. He could have blown up his Senior Year (and UConn has often been a Program that has been more reliant on that on-field play in the kid's last year). He might have heard from any of 6 bigtime Programs that jump into NJ regularly. You just don't know. That UConn or Albany as Offers is NOT absolute. Saying a kid only had one Offer or 2 or 3 when he commits in May/June isn't very relevant.

As for the other ... I hope you aren't blithely pointing to me as thinking Diaco had a good first year. I think we saw a great example of a guy who has never been a Head Coach. I think we saw a guy surrounded by solid football assistants that ventured into Diaco-isms that were just not positive (and therefore, I think he didn't listen to those close to him). He hasn't started well. That doesn't mean he can't be a solid evaluator of talent (with staff).
 
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June 28th

So ... you opened the door on another piece. John Robinson, as many do, tell all that are knocking on their door that they are COMMITTED. There are a lot of months between June 28th, 2014 and February 4, 2015. He could have blown up his Senior Year (and UConn has often been a Program that has been more reliant on that on-field play in the kid's last year). He might have heard from any of 6 bigtime Programs that jump into NJ regularly. You just don't know. That UConn or Albany as Offers is NOT absolute. Saying a kid only had one Offer or 2 or 3 when he commits in May/June isn't very relevant.

As for the other ... I hope you aren't blithely pointing to me as thinking Diaco had a good first year. I think we saw a great example of a guy who has never been a Head Coach. I think we saw a guy surrounded by solid football assistants that ventured into Diaco-isms that were just not positive (and therefore, I think he didn't listen to those close to him). He hasn't started well. That doesn't mean he can't be a solid evaluator of talent (with staff).

First paragraph - No, I don't know. I do know there was interest from other schools, but rivals says no offers. We don't know the future. We go based off the information we have. Most of us aren't saying these guys can't/won't be good. But the fact is that more 2* athletes DON"T turn into program changers than DO. There are examples of players that outperform their rankings. But there are more stories like Kevin Poles' than Byron Jones'. They're just easily forgotten because they never impact the program in a meaningful way. (hint, 2006 recruiting class)

Also, the point was that you can't say "he's a 2* cause he's from new england and they don't bother reviewing their tape." He's from NJ, plenty of people scouting NJ. He got viewed, he got 2*. He'll also get the chance to prove he can be better than they predict.

Second paragraph - No, not at all. I'm referring to Matt and his blogs. The jury is out on Diaco, he's got the potential and enthusiasm, comes off as a bright (albeit eccentric) guy and a hard worker, so I believe he'll get better. We really need him to.
 
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Thanks for having this conversation on topic and away from personal attacks. In the end, we're really not that far off. But people want to discuss recruiting, and they don't want to wait 2-3 years to do it, so we'll base it on what we know/think.
 

whaler11

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Thanks for having this conversation on topic and away from personal attacks. In the end, we're really not that far off. But people want to discuss recruiting, and they don't want to wait 2-3 years to do it, so we'll base it on what we know/think.

No one here outside of maybe UCFam is even passing judgement on how the class really is or will turn out.

Pointing out on paper one would like to see recruiting wins against better programs than Bryant and Monmouth should hardly be offensive - but some people take things personally for some bizarre reason.
 
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Anyone have a countdown started yet? Until game 1 next season that is.
 
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4 and 5 star players are, generally, good. They are physical freaks at the very front of the development/maturation curve for 17 year olds. They also tend to have more data backing them. Some have the desire to continue to improve as they move to college, some don't and will fade. If they are good fits, we should want them (though it's not quite realistic at this time that they choose UConn for a variety of reasons).

Beyond that, as others have noted, stars are crap shoots, being generated on progressively less and less data. These guys are developing at a more "normal" pace for a 17 year old - they haven't peaked yet. Do they want to? Some will, many won't.

Regardless of stars, slapping a label on a 17 year old and drawing some conclusion as to their football ceiling 4 years out is an exercise in stupidity.

You still do have to evaluate talent and find good fits - the RKGs. So how do you find the diamonds in the rough? You look for high integrity, highly motivated guys who love football and want to outwork the other kids in in the same bucket. Diaco's approach is just plain logical. Then, if you are competent (unlike PP), you coach them, teach them, develop them physically.

You don't NEED 4/5* recruits to do well, but they help get you there quicker. 2/3* recruits aren't a death sentence, but you had better be good at evaluating talent, developing it, and out working folks.

Bringing it back to Byron - maybe he WAS a two star recruit at 17... But frankly, who cares? His desire to maximize his talents made that evaluation utterly meaningless.

This is spot on. CTMike can drop the mike and we can move on.
 
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If anyone has a link that shows the draft picks with their HS rankings, please post it

A bit of a spin off the draft picks/HS ranking piece - stumbled across this earlier in the week...

What if recruiting rankings determined the 2015 NFL Draft's top 101 players?
http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...73/nfl-draft-2015-high-school-recruit-ratings

There are "observations" below the chart. Cherry picking a few:
  • Of the top 101 players coming out of high school, 36 are now ranked in the top 101
  • Only two quarterbacks, Jameis Winston and Brett Hundley, were top-100 recruits in this class. Potential No. 1 pick Marcus Mariota would rank No. 191
  • With 20 represented, defensive linemen are the most common among the top 100 recruits. As it turns out, D-linemen typically live up to the hype. Of the 20 top 100 recruits, the average draft ranking is 92.6.
  • Wide receivers make up the second most common position, but their talent doesn't seem to translate as well. The 16 top-100 receivers have an average draft rank of 249.4
 
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