Oriole weirdness

[Fishy]

Not actual weirdness, just some things that caught my eye.

ESPN always runs a team's playoff chances in the standings. The Orioles, even when they've led the division, have always had a relatively low chance of making the playoffs if you go by whatever metric ESPN uses to calculate such things.

Currently, they have a 16.8% chance of being in the playoffs. The Rays, one-half of a game ahead, have a 56.3% chance. The Red Sox, who are floating like a corpse in the Charles, have an 11.5% chance, despite being 5.5 games behind the Orioles.

This, however, I found extraordinary.

The second-best team in terms of winning one-run games is the Washington Nationals - they're 23-17. (The Yankees are 14-17.) One other team is six games over .500 in one run games, two or three are five games under, most are near enough to .500 on one side or another.

The Orioles are 22-6. They're 12-2 in extra inning games.

They've flip-flopped their expected W/L record from 52-63 expected to 63-52 actual.

I keep waiting for them to go away...but they just don't.

 

[Dann]

wildcard to world series sleeper run written all over them

 

[zyron]

They have a -49 run differential, 4th worst in the AL. That is why they have a lower percentage chance to make the playoffs. Their record in one run games is what is keeping them afloat.

Edit: According to Baseball Reference, they should be 52-63.

 

[zls44]

What zyron said. The Orioles are a historic statistical outlier with the one-run games thing. Most teams are around .500 and they have an insane record in close games. Overall, they're below .500 since the middle of May. They are legitimately not good at baseball.

POFF% is built off run differential. The Cardinals have a huge run differential, but (without looking) I'm guessing it's been built up by the flotsam they play in their own division 3/5ths of the time.

 

[Waquoit]

The rehabilitation of Dan Duquette continues.

 

[Dogdeacon]

I forget if statistically speaking it was proven that in baseball 1 run game W-L is a law of averages thing and teams will always regress to the mean OR is it truly the sign of a good team?

I think losing 1 run games is more clearly indicative of a bad team.

 

[billythekid]

Now all they have to do is fire Buck Showalter and they're guaranteed to make the playoffs