Ohio State AD...conference will expand...in 5 years or so

[billybud]

Smith said he even expects the Big Ten to someday expand full membership again, maybe after five or six years.

“There will be a point,” he said, “when the business model changes again, frankly, because of media platforms.”

Already, this is no longer a Big Ten familiar to Ohio State fans.

“I understand the apprehension,” Smith said, “but at the end of the day, our responsibility in the conference is our needs from a business perspective. So for the financial stability of our conference and strength of our conference, it’s the best deal in the country.”

http://buckeyextra.dispatch.com/content/stories/2014/07/27/dollars-trump-tradition-in-expansion.html

 

[Dooley]

2016, UCONN fans. That's the deadline for UCONN to have its entire house in order: competitive football, fan support, continued championship basketball, academic (expanded research closer to AAU), etc. Starts with buying football tickets.

More potential viewers will give the Big Ten more leverage when its 10-year, $1 billion contract with ABC/ESPN expires after 2016. Last year, Delany reportedly told Big Ten trustees that payouts to each school could reach $40 million from a forthcoming new national TV deal.

 

[B1GOSU]

I was just going to post this. It's only a matter of time before UConn either joins the B1G or backfills into the ACC after a trickle down effect from the next realignment round.

 

[Plains&Lakes]

"......Adding a Maryland and Rutgers is consistent with what was happening with expansion,” Smith said. “It provides a new geography for us to have a presence in, for a number of reasons: television, recruiting, (and) providing Penn State with some geographical partners. The reality is, growth was inevitable for intercollegiate athletic conferences. We needed to be part of that.”


I do not see Kansas as adding new geography. In relatively close areas, Virginia and NC do. Georgia Tech needs UVA, VT, UNC or Duke. I think that the Big Ten is trying to get one of those 5 schools to pair up with UConn by 2016. I think that Georgia Tech is a long shot if they can get one of UVA, UNC or VT. I think that there is some chance that the Big Ten can get one of the 2 Virginia schools and UConn.

It is very interesting that the AD of a major Big Ten school states that going to 16 is very likely to happen-that it is only a matter of "when." Folks, you've just heard a shot across the "realignment is dead" bow by a major Big Ten figure. Such talk is rarely lose or non-premeditated. One could easily suspect that the public is being prepared and the candidate schools warned that will something will likely happen by 2016. Particularly when Smith talks about the financial reasons. Well, the coming contract is about as financial as it gets. Setting our alarm clocks for the next realignment press conference 5 years from now really looks intuitively disconnected. Smith all but said that "We have to do this." Do people usually wait for 5 years to do things that they think that they "have to do?"

 

[pj]

As I noted on another thread, UConn's exit notice is 27 months, so a 2016 deal leads to a 2019 or 2020 entry to the B1G -- 5 or 6 years.

ACC requires 10 months notice but of course a much larger fee and there is the GoR issue. So the timing Smith gives matches only for UConn.

I still wonder if it wouldn't make the most sense for the B1G to go to 15 and wait for the ACC/B12 TV contracts to expire before choosing a path to 16, 18, or 20. UConn can make accommodations for scheduling. We'll do anything the B1G needs to make it work.

 

[Sparty84]

That is very interesting info from the TOSU A.D. I hope that it indicates that UCONN will have a BIG outlook in the near future. As far as who UCONN's reallignment partner could be, I would guess that only Delaney and the Presidents and Chancellors know for sure.

Either way... good luck. I'm looking forward to regular UCONN and SPARTAN bball games.

 

[Hoophound]

As I noted on another thread, UConn's exit notice is 27 months, so a 2016 deal leads to a 2019 or 2020 entry to the B1G -- 5 or 6 years. ACC requires 10 months notice but of course a much larger fee and there is the GoR issue. So the timing Smith gives matches only for UConn. I still wonder if it wouldn't make the most sense for the B1G to go to 15 and wait for the ACC/B12 TV contracts to expire before choosing a path to 16, 18, or 20. UConn can make accommodations for scheduling. We'll do anything the B1G needs to make it work.

I think we'll see a much sooner start than 2020 if invited. You are assuming we won't get invited until 2016. If we give notice this fall, they can negotiate a tv deal in 15-16' and we can play football in 2017'. We could even begin basketball play in 2016' if something happens quick.

 

[pj]

I think we'll see a much sooner start than 2020 if invited. You are assuming we won't get invited until 2016. If we give notice this fall, they can negotiate a tv deal in 15-16' and we can play football in 2017'. We could even begin basketball play in 2016' if something happens quick.

UConn would love that but I expect the B1G wants to get its TV partners to give them two definite quotes, "with UConn" and "without UConn", before it makes a decision. That will only happen in second half 2016. We will have to prove we don't cost them money. I think that will happen, but good football performance and a few more basketball championships would help.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

UConn would love that but I expect the B1G wants to get its TV partners to give them two definite quotes, "with UConn" and "without UConn", before it makes a decision. That will only happen in second half 2016. We will have to prove we don't cost them money. I think that will happen, but good football performance and a few more basketball championships would help.

I think that when you say, "We will have to prove we don't cost them money," that doesn't necessarily mean we have to increase payouts in Year 1. Business acquisitions generally involve red ink for some period, often years, before turning black. Basically what you're selling is a vision that return over a specific time period, say 5 or 10 years, will be greater with the acquisition than without it. Any conference commissioner who says he won't recommend adding a new member unless that school increases per member payouts starting on day one is lost. The magic number is the year UConn's membership breaks even.

 

[Hoophound]

UConn would love that but I expect the B1G wants to get its TV partners to give them two definite quotes, "with UConn" and "without UConn", before it makes a decision. That will only happen in second half 2016. We will have to prove we don't cost them money. I think that will happen, but good football performance and a few more basketball championships would help.

I'm working under the presumption that they already have an idea if and why they want us, including financial reasons.

 

[Seaa Blue]

More chatter from tOSU (and x-tOSU).

@kyleslamb , what do you make of it? Sounds like he knows something.

 

[jostar1]

Setting our alarm clocks for the next realignment press conference 5 years from now really looks intuitively disconnected. Smith all but said that "We have to do this." Do people usually wait for 5 years to do things that they think that they "have to do?"

Reminds me of this quote:

“What should be done eventually, must be done immediately.”

- Florida athletic director Jeremy Foley

 

[Calamitous]

Smith said he even expects the Big Ten to someday expand full membership again, maybe after five or six years.

Since almost every conference is locked down in a GORs deal for the 12 years, this must mean the B1G is getting ready to move on UConn and a SEC school, since UConn is not tied down and the SEC has no GOR. Is Mizzou the other candidate and would they be willing to leave the SEC? Either that or Delany has found a loophole in the ACC and B12's GORs.

Personally, I'm interested in Texas and Oklahoma's position on adding 2 more schools to make a championship (if it comes down to this). If Texas and Oklahoma vote yes to add 2 new schools, it means they want to keep the B12 alive. If those 2 vote no, I think it means the B12 could be in for a wild ride. I wonder is this is what Smith is eluding to? I could see Texas, Oklahoma (non AAU), Kansas and UConn joining to get to 18 members. Nebraska will be thrilled to have Texas back in their lives

 

[Cleanface]

I do not see Kansas as adding new geography. In relatively close areas, Virginia and NC do. Georgia Tech needs UVA, VT, UNC or Duke. I think that the Big Ten is trying to get one of those 5 schools to pair up with UConn by 2016. I think that Georgia Tech is a long shot if they can get one of UVA, UNC or VT. I think that there is some chance that the Big Ten can get one of the 2 Virginia schools and UConn.

NC & VA are the big fish left for both the B1G and the SEC. They would gobble those two states up in nanoseconds if they could (UNC/UVA > B1G ::: NCST/VT > SEC). And, IMO, all four would fit nicely. NC is as far south as I can handle. No GT, thanks.

I don't see it tho. I'd like to see the ACC survive just bc I don't want to see the B1G grow much more. I guess I can handle 16, 18-20 is too much. I was happy with NEB and staying at 12, but oh well. Anyway, If UVA or UNC fall then, IMO, it all falls. The B1G would take both in that scenario, they wouldn't be looking for one to "pair" with UCONN. If one goes, they both go (((IMO))). UCONN is left out and B1G packs up shop forever. UCONN > ACC.

I still think UCONN's best path into the B1G is with KS. I don't see VA/NC budging. With the instability of the LHN and TX, who knows? Overall, I see the BXII imploding before the ACC. However, would the B1G then pursue KS > OU > TX in that scenario, with UCONN to fill the last #18 spot and solidify NYC?? We've discussed that before. Crazy moves, but we know TX and the B1G have had talks in the past.

Being hoops school guy, I'd love it to be KU & UCONN, but I don't see the B1G passing on TX & OU if it all goes down (enter the PAC and SEC as well). 18 schools?!?! Sheesh.


edit; now that I'm reading that, I guess I should be hoping the B1G focuses on ripping UNC/UVA. At least we'd stay at ((only)) 16. BXII imploding could get hairy. Plus it'd be fun watching ACC intertronners melt.

 

[Calamitous]

I don't want to see the B1G grow much more.

I personally miss the 10 team conferences. Rivalries meant something with smaller conference numbers. The SEC ruined everything by going to 12 in 1991. That started the trend we're seeing today. Thank you Roy Kramer. Of course, staying at 10 for conferences would likely mean my school could be in conference USA now.

 

[kyleslamb]

More chatter from tOSU (and x-tOSU).

@kyleslamb , what do you make of it? Sounds like he knows something.

Well as I tried telling a few of the ACC fans a few months ago when Delaney downplayed further expansion: they aren't done. I just really don't know their timeframe but still suspect 2015

 

[RegisteredUconn]

I personally miss the 10 team conferences. Rivalries meant something with smaller conference numbers. The SEC ruined everything by going to 12 in 1991. That started the trend we're seeing today. Thank you Roy Kramer. Of course, staying at 10 for conferences would likely mean my school could be in conference USA now.

I'm sure there are those who miss eight team conferences and are unhappy with the Big Ten for starting the whole "race to big" in the first place. On the other hand, I was surprised at how quickly I warmed to the idea of a 16 team Big East (for basketball) that emerged from the original ACC raid. I guess it helped that we became the dominant force in college basketball.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

NC & VA are the big fish left for both the B1G and the SEC. They would gobble those two states up in nanoseconds if they could (UNC/UVA > B1G ::: NCST/VT > SEC). And, IMO, all four would fit nicely. NC is as far south as I can handle. No GT, thanks.

I don't see it tho. I'd like to see the ACC survive just bc I don't want to see the B1G grow much more. I guess I can handle 16, 18-20 is too much. I was happy with NEB and staying at 12, but oh well. Anyway, If UVA or UNC fall then, IMO, it all falls. The B1G would take both in that scenario, they wouldn't be looking for one to "pair" with UCONN. If one goes, they both go (((IMO))). UCONN is left out and B1G packs up shop forever. UCONN > ACC.

I still think UCONN's best path into the B1G is with KS. I don't see VA/NC budging. With the instability of the LHN and TX, who knows? Overall, I see the BXII imploding before the ACC. However, would the B1G then pursue KS > OU > TX in that scenario, with UCONN to fill the last #18 spot and solidify NYC?? We've discussed that before. Crazy moves, but we know TX and the B1G have had talks in the past.

Being hoops school guy, I'd love it to be KU & UCONN, but I don't see the B1G passing on TX & OU if it all goes down (enter the PAC and SEC as well). 18 schools?!?! Sheesh.


edit; now that I'm reading that, I guess I should be hoping the B1G focuses on ripping UNC/UVA. At least we'd stay at ((only)) 16. BXII imploding could get hairy. Plus it'd be fun watching ACC intertronners melt.

I guess I don't see North Carolina and Virginia as tightly coupled as others do. UVA sits astride the North/South fault line, probably more south centric than north, but more willing to listen. UNC is much more solidly south. An announcement that Virginia had accepted an invitation to the B1G would more likely find UNC returning a call from the SEC than the B1G.

I also can't imagine the B1G attempting a 3 region strategy when they've barely begun executing their two region plans. It'd be like Ike briefing Roosevelt at the beginning of US involvement in WWII: 1) Week 1 - Begin driving the Nazis from North Africa; 2) Week 2 - Depose Hitler; Week 3 - Nuke Japan.

And talk about bridges too far, Texas and Oklahoma? Seriously? Hold on, that's my broker on the phone. Turns out the Mondavi vineyards are available for my retirement portfolio after all.

 

[CL82]

I see the math a little bit differently. If a new B1G contract begins in January 2017 then UConn would need to announce 27 months before then or by the end of September 2014. So all this talk of conference realignment being dead scares the crap outta me. Hopefully it's just the calm before the storm

 

[Cleanface]

I guess I don't see North Carolina and Virginia as tightly coupled as others do. UVA sits astride the North/South fault line, probably more south centric than north, but more willing to listen. UNC is much more solidly south. An announcement that Virginia had accepted an invitation to the B1G would more likely find UNC returning a call from the SEC than the B1G.

I also can't imagine the B1G attempting a 3 region strategy when they've barely begun executing their two region plans. It'd be like Ike briefing Roosevelt at the beginning of US involvement in WWII: 1) Week 1 - Begin driving the Nazis from North Africa; 2) Week 2 - Depose Hitler; Week 3 - Nuke Japan.

And talk about bridges too far, Texas and Oklahoma? Seriously? Hold on, that's my broker on the phone. Turns out the Mondavi vineyards are available for my retirement portfolio after all.

It's not that I see them tightly coupled, it's just that I see the B1G wanting both. And, those two are pretty much the only two in the ACC the B1G would want (maybe an outside shot at VT). I don't see GT or Free $hoes U as serious possibilities.

I also think UNC would choose B1G over SEC based on their academics alone. Current scandal aside, UNC is an elite academic institution, and I believe would want to align itself with research juggernaut that is the CIC. Or, maybe they go south and give the SEC some academic weight, and another BBall to go along with UK. Who knows. I would predict B1G (plus Delany played BBall there and his son goes there.)

RE TX & BXII - hey man, it's all wild speculation around here. Don't bag on my CR creativity, bro.

 

[Dooley]

I see the math a little bit differently. If a new B1G contract begins in January 2017 then UConn would need to announce 27 months before then or by the end of September 2014. So all this talk of conference realignment being dead scares the crap outta me. Hopefully it's just the calm before the storm

Your timetable is just to integrate UCONN into the B1G, if it were to happen, so that they would start play once the new TV contract kicks in. Technically speaking, UCONN could be added at any time before 2016 when the B1G contract is up for negotiation, if it were to happen. UCONN doesn't need to be an active member when they negotiate as I'm sure the networks in play would give Delany and the B1G Presidents a valuation of their contract deal with/without UCONN included.

That said, I would think that it would help the B1G's negotiations to have UCONN (and whoever) in the mix before negotiations take place. Both of our basketball programs bring value and pay for themselves. Plus, the B1G would be able to dangle MSG as a possible (and plausible) venue for basketball games with UCONN's connection to NYC. Big games at MSG draws viewers and UCONN at MSG gives the B1G big games each and every year. But the biggest draw for the B1G to move on UCONN quickly, before they negotiate, is to jumpstart UCONN's football program before they negotiate and enter league play. If UCONN fans know that the program is going to the B1G in a few years, then guess what? Season tickets start flying off the shelves so that they are guaranteed to be grandfathered into the stadium to see Michigan, PSU, OSU, MSU, etc. Even if it meant sitting through a bunch of horrific December games against Memphis, the UCONN fan would want their seat guaranteed to see programs that they are more familiar with come to the Rent in a few short years. Plus, the B1G angle would absolutely spark recruiting some more and allow UCONN to recruit strongly against our local competition. So by the time 2017 rolls around and the B1G has all of its TV contract ducks in a row, UCONN would be benefiting from the 2014-15 uptick in season tickets/recruiting and would bring a more competitive program to the B1G schedule (not to mention stadium expansion from the increased season ticket sales). From there, the State's deal that all home games must be played at the Rent expires (it expires in 2017, I think) and the B1G could market games at Yankee Stadium, MetLife or even Gillette/Fenway.

 

[pj]

I see the math a little bit differently. If a new B1G contract begins in January 2017 then UConn would need to announce 27 months before then or by the end of September 2014. So all this talk of conference realignment being dead scares the crap outta me. Hopefully it's just the calm before the storm

No. UConn is not going to pay an exit fee to the AAC, give up all its NCAA credits and the exit fees of all the schools that have left, and be left conferenceless, if it doesn't have a guaranteed spot in a P5 conference. That means the B1G entry has to be signed, sealed, and delivered before UConn gives notice to the AAC. It's not going to be signed, sealed, and delivered until the B1G TV deals are negotiated.

TV networks don't need UConn to be in the B1G at the start of the deal. They just need to know UConn will be in the B1G in a few years.

 

[UConn9604]

As I noted on another thread, UConn's exit notice is 27 months, so a 2016 deal leads to a 2019 or 2020 entry to the B1G -- 5 or 6 years.

ACC requires 10 months notice but of course a much larger fee and there is the GoR issue. So the timing Smith gives matches only for UConn.

I still wonder if it wouldn't make the most sense for the B1G to go to 15 and wait for the ACC/B12 TV contracts to expire before choosing a path to 16, 18, or 20. UConn can make accommodations for scheduling. We'll do anything the B1G needs to make it work.

There's no way we'd wait all 27 months. This would be the easiest fund drive ever: "Please donate to the Exit Fee Fund and help get us out of this hellhole." I'd consider taking out a second mortgage.

 

[coachcap]

So I'm listening to the Tim Brando show at noon while driving in to work. His guest was CBS sports personality Dennis Dodd.
Dodd's commentary on the notion of B1G expansion was that the B1G whiffed on the opportunity to get N.D., UNC, Virginia & Georgia Tech & is just waitng & dealing behind the scenes until they again become available.

 

[Seaa Blue]

So I'm listening to the Tim Brando show at noon while driving in to work. His guest was CBS sports personality Dennis Dodd.
Dodd's commentary on the notion of B1G expansion was that the B1G whiffed on the opportunity to get N.D., UNC, Virginia & Georgia Tech & is just waitng & dealing behind the scenes until they again become available.

Dodd is contractually obligated to disparage B1G whenever possible. Not one to let minimum expectations stand in the way, it seems to have become a life-long endeavor of his.