NewsOk: The Big 12 Conference should have listened to Kevin Weiberg

[CoastAtlantic]

http://newsok.com/the-big-12-confer...rss&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

I thought it was an interesting article. The most prominent part from the article:

Commonality was a foreign concept in the Big 12 in 2010 and 2011. Trust was gone. All for none and none for all. And despite all the flowery talk the last three years, the truth is, the Big 12 remains a conference that lives on out of desperation more than anything else. Some have nowhere else to go; others, like OU and Texas, know they are kingpins of scorched Earth.

If the Big 12 had voted to install a network, perhaps it would have rankled Texas. Maybe the Longhorns would have bolted the league, though it’s clear now that other conferences would not be so quick to capitulate to UT. Would not roll out a burnt orange carpet for The Longhorn Network. Who knows? Maybe the Big 12 would have been staggered either way.

This much we know. The SEC passions boil up plenty of hatred. Georgia hates Florida. Tennessee hates Alabama. Alabama hates Auburn. Everyone hates LSU. But give the SEC credit. Its schools have come together in solidarity. They chant “SEC! SEC!” after big bowl wins, and they mock their inferiors in other conferences, and they sign away their precious inventory of ballgames to the common cause of the SEC Network.

Meanwhile, in the Big 12, Texas and ESPN connive to get as many as three games a year on Bevo TV, and Kansas State, a top-20 program by any definition, can’t get its season opener televised even in Kansas.

I don't know about "Kansas State" and "top-20 program" in the same sentence, but the rest is pretty good. Fascinating look at conference politics in another area of the country. Kevin did say that the B12 has a good chance at succeeding in its current form. So there's that.

 

[Fishy]

No conference has mismanaged itself as poorly as the Big 12 - I'm even including the Big East in that. The Big East couldn't do anything to save itself from ESPN's checkbook, but the Big 12 definitely could have solidified itself for the long hall.

They were so busy serving Texas' best interests that they neglected their future in terms of expansion and a network.

They should be sitting pretty at 12 with West Virginia, Louisville and Cincinnati and they should be planning their network...but they have West Virginia on a useless island and everyone will be on pins and needles as they start to close in on the current contract expiration.

 

[billybud]

Amen to that, Fishy. Good post.

 

[Dooley]

No conference has mismanaged itself as poorly as the Big 12 - I'm even including the Big East in that. The Big East couldn't do anything to save itself from ESPN's checkbook, but the Big 12 definitely could have solidified itself for the long hall.

They were so busy serving Texas' best interests that they neglected their future in terms of expansion and a network.

They should be sitting pretty at 12 with West Virginia, Louisville and Cincinnati and they should be planning their network...but they have West Virginia on a useless island and everyone will be on pins and needles as they start to close in on the current contract expiration.

Couldn't agree more. They should have made a Louisville/Cincinnati combo move several years ago to give WVU a few traveling r1vals plus add network value. BYU, Cincinnati, UCF, USF and to some degree, Houston are all still out there (I am not including UCONN because I don't think we're a good fit for that conference) and they are still bowing to Texas and their fledgling LHN. They can't get a network done because other than some Texas markets, there really isn't enough big DMAs to consider creating a B12N.

I suspect that the reason why they are so stagnant in CR talks is because the upper-echelon...the "kingpins of a scorched Earth"...have eyes for another conference down the road and adding new schools devalues their voting power. Texas, OU and Kansas can all post an ad in the CR Classified section today and they'd have 4 power conferences answering the ad within seconds. The rest of the dust bowl is just hanging on for dear life.

 

[Kolumbo]

Some of us, especially those of us on this board, analyze realignment ad nauseam, beyond nauseam. Perhaps in Texas they feel there is no need to change. Time will tell. But if they are happy at 10 and they are included in the P5, no matter what anyone else says, they have that going for them, which is nice.

 

[frankthetank]

Couldn't agree more. They should have made a Louisville/Cincinnati combo move several years ago to give WVU a few traveling r1vals plus add network value. BYU, Cincinnati, UCF, USF and to some degree, Houston are all still out there (I am not including UCONN because I don't think we're a good fit for that conference) and they are still bowing to Texas and their fledgling LHN. They can't get a network done because other than some Texas markets, there really isn't enough big DMAs to consider creating a B12N.

I suspect that the reason why they are so stagnant in CR talks is because the upper-echelon...the "kingpins of a scorched Earth"...have eyes for another conference down the road and adding new schools devalues their voting power. Texas, OU and Kansas can all post an ad in the CR Classified section today and they'd have 4 power conferences answering the ad within seconds. The rest of the dust bowl is just hanging on for dear life.

It's essentially a prisoner's dilemma-type situation in the Big 12.

What's keeping Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas in the Big 12 for the short-term is the large amount of national TV money that's only being split 10 ways plus the lucrative third tier rights deals that they have on their own (such as the LHN). Any immediate move for expansion is bad financially for those 3 in the short-term, so they've been shooting it down.

Of course, the problem is that the Big 12 is too reliant on only those 3 schools (we'll call them the "Big 3" here), which is exactly what would spur the Big 3 to look elsewhere in the long-term. The longer that the Big 12 goes with a league that has extremely poor demographics outside of the State of Texas, the more attractive that any of the other 4 power conferences will look to those Big 3 once this current TV deal is completed.

In essence, the Big 12 is boxed in by the Big 3: expansion isn't good for the Big 3 in the short-term, and then the lack of expansion is what may ultimately spur the Big 3 to leave in the long-term.

Note that one wild card is that Texas seems to prize control even more than money - they'd rather be the head of a weaker conference than an equal partner in a stronger conference. The line that I've used before is that Texas wants a huge estate with a bunch of worker bees from Waco and Lubbock, whereas Notre Dame just wants everyone to get the heck off of its lawn.

Oklahoma and Kansas likely think differently because they don't have the massive home TV market and recruiting area that Texas brings all by itself, so they have much more open ears about switching leagues. However, they're tied down politically by their little brothers of Oklahoma State and Kansas State. Believe me: the Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC and ACC would ALL take an Oklahoma/Kansas expansion immediately. What they aren't willing to do is take Oklahoma State and Kansas State, which reduces the leverage of Oklahoma and Kansas to move.

The Big 12 is just a fascinating case study in conference realignment. On the one hand, they're almost screwed either way when it comes to expansion because the Big 3 don't want to reduce any short-term money, but it's inevitable that they'll fall behind in a few years money-wise if they DON'T expand. On the other hand, the Texas desire for control and the state politics within Oklahoma and Kansas could be enough to keep this league together in spite of itself.

 

[upstater]

It's essentially a prisoner's dilemma-type situation in the Big 12.

What's keeping Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas in the Big 12 for the short-term is the large amount of national TV money that's only being split 10 ways plus the lucrative third tier rights deals that they have on their own (such as the LHN). Any immediate move for expansion is bad financially for those 3 in the short-term, so they've been shooting it down.

Of course, the problem is that the Big 12 is too reliant on only those 3 schools (we'll call them the "Big 3" here), which is exactly what would spur the Big 3 to look elsewhere in the long-term. The longer that the Big 12 goes with a league that has extremely poor demographics outside of the State of Texas, the more attractive that any of the other 4 power conferences will look to those Big 3 once this current TV deal is completed.

In essence, the Big 12 is boxed in by the Big 3: expansion isn't good for the Big 3 in the short-term, and then the lack of expansion is what may ultimately spur the Big 3 to leave in the long-term.

Note that one wild card is that Texas seems to prize control even more than money - they'd rather be the head of a weaker conference than an equal partner in a stronger conference. The line that I've used before is that Texas wants a huge estate with a bunch of worker bees from Waco and Lubbock, whereas Notre Dame just wants everyone to get the heck off of its lawn.

Oklahoma and Kansas likely think differently because they don't have the massive home TV market and recruiting area that Texas brings all by itself, so they have much more open ears about switching leagues. However, they're tied down politically by their little brothers of Oklahoma State and Kansas State. Believe me: the Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC and ACC would ALL take an Oklahoma/Kansas expansion immediately. What they aren't willing to do is take Oklahoma State and Kansas State, which reduces the leverage of Oklahoma and Kansas to move.

The Big 12 is just a fascinating case study in conference realignment. On the one hand, they're almost screwed either way when it comes to expansion because the Big 3 don't want to reduce any short-term money, but it's inevitable that they'll fall behind in a few years money-wise if they DON'T expand. On the other hand, the Texas desire for control and the state politics within Oklahoma and Kansas could be enough to keep this league together in spite of itself.

Why would those conferences take Kansas? Given its football and home market?

 

[businesslawyer]

Frank: under that theory, why wouldn't the Big XII offer their expansion candidates a package that doesn't have them earning anything like a full share any time soon, but only gives them some rough approximation of what they bring to the table? With the possible exception of BYU, any other candidate would join them in a nanosecond as long as their revenue doesn't go down, because they at least have protection in the long term.

 

[Dooley]

Frank: under that theory, why wouldn't the Big XII offer their expansion candidates a package that doesn't have them earning anything like a full share any time soon, but only gives them some rough approximation of what they bring to the table? With the possible exception of BYU, any other candidate would join them in a nanosecond as long as their revenue doesn't go down, because they at least have protection in the long term.

My guess is that it has something to do with voting power too. In addition to losing some revenue down the road, the Texas folks don't want to lose their 10% voting power (really it's more than 10% because the other B12 members seem to bow to everything Texas). I *thought* that I read somewhere that adding members does something to change the bylaws of the conference and would, somehow/some way, dilute Texas' power. I'm too lazy to look it up right now though.

 

[pj]

Why would those conferences take Kansas? Given its football and home market?

Kansas = UConn without NYC nearby. But, Kansas is a stepping-stone to Oklahoma and Texas. If you want all 3, you might start with Kansas.

 

[businesslawyer]

My guess is that it has something to do with voting power too. In addition to losing some revenue down the road, the Texas folks don't want to lose their 10% voting power (really it's more than 10% because the other B12 members seem to bow to everything Texas). I *thought* that I read somewhere that adding members does something to change the bylaws of the conference and would, somehow/some way, dilute Texas' power. I'm too lazy to look it up right now though.

But by laws can be changed. And just like any candidate but BYU would come in for less money, you think UCF or Cincy is saying no because they don't get a vote?

 

[Dooley]

Kansas = UConn without NYC nearby. But, Kansas is a stepping-stone to Oklahoma and Texas. If you want all 3, you might start with Kansas.

If Kansas adds Kansas City and St Louis markets, those aren't too shabby for a conference network. Plus they are a Top 10 Hoops program for conferences concerned with year-round content for a network. They have good academics and their football program was in the Orange Bowl not too long ago (think Aqib Talib). But I think you nailed it best when you said they would be a stepping stone to OU and/or Texas. The B1G or PAC or SEC would jump at KU in a second, not only for the other attributes they possess, but also to try to lure OU and/or Texas with them.

 

[Dooley]

But by laws can be changed. And just like any candidate but BYU would come in for less money, you think UCF or Cincy is saying no because they don't get a vote?

Oh I agree with you. I'm just replying with what I think I read a while ago. Come to think about it, that really wasn't enough to reply. I should have just stayed silent on the matter. I feel like the chick in class that heard from a friend of a friend of a friend who used to go steady with so-and-so that Ferris Bueller is dying.

 

[frankthetank]

Why would those conferences take Kansas? Given its football and home market?

Kansas is very valuable in the conference realignment context (and believe me that it pains me to say that since I can't stand that school): flagship school, AAU member blue blood basketball program, controls a much larger market than its home state (it's a Kansas City home team, so they're effectively also bringing in about half of the population of Missouri), and they're in an area where college sports dominate even in the midst of pro sports competition.

Now, I can anticipate the retort that basically all of these arguments (besides being an AAU school) could apply to UConn, and I wouldn't disagree with that. Frankly, the biggest advantage that Kansas over UConn has is time - it has been playing football in a "power conference" for over 100 years. I've said before here that a major disadvantage that UConn has is the reality that it has only been playing FBS football for just over a decade. I know that a lot of people here don't want to believe that this is supposed to be an issue (or should only be a minor concern compared to market size, etc.), but it simply is when you're dealing with conferences and schools with tradition-bound old money mindsets. Kansas has always been in the old money football club (and they're literally the oldest of the old money when it comes to basketball considering that James Naismith started its program), whereas UConn (whether rightly or wrongly) is perceived to be "new money" in a club where old money rules. The only solution to that problem is time.

Ironically, the league that would probably care the least about the old money/new money dichotomy is the Big 12: they need better demographics and geographic continuity overall. Did you know that Storrs, CT really isn't materially farther away from the Iowa/Kansas portion of the Big 12 than Provo, UT? People seem to perceive that BYU is close to the Big 12 footprint (possibly because the Eastern media seems to think everything west of the Mississippi River is all one compact region), yet it would be as much as a geographic outlier as UConn would be in that league... and UConn would be less so if it's paired with Cincinnati in an expansion that brackets West Virginia.

The Big Ten and ACC certainly make more sense for UConn, but those leagues just aren't expanding for the foreseeable future. UConn can make a play for the Big 12, but it needs to battle the perception that (1) it's too much of a geographic outlier (where the response from UConn supporters should be to check where BYU is located on a map) and (2) it's too much of a newbie in football (which is tougher to overcome without the benefit of time, but the school should be showing clearly how it's investing in power conference-level football).

 

[Kolumbo]

Frank: under that theory, why wouldn't the Big XII offer their expansion candidates a package that doesn't have them earning anything like a full share any time soon, but only gives them some rough approximation of what they bring to the table? With the possible exception of BYU, any other candidate would join them in a nanosecond as long as their revenue doesn't go down, because they at least have protection in the long term.

And the big reason, lack of expansion candidates. It had to replace Mizzou and TAMU with WVU and TCU. There are just no other viable options, especially with their revenue requirement.

 

[husky10]

A saving grace for the B-12 could be that by all indications Texas is incredibly difficult to deal with. So if they decide to look into other conferences they may be told to go pound scorched Earth.

 

[upstater]

Kansas is very valuable in the conference realignment context (and believe me that it pains me to say that since I can't stand that school): flagship school, AAU member blue blood basketball program, controls a much larger market than its home state (it's a Kansas City home team, so they're effectively also bringing in about half of the population of Missouri), and they're in an area where college sports dominate even in the midst of pro sports competition.

Now, I can anticipate the retort that basically all of these arguments (besides being an AAU school) could apply to UConn, and I wouldn't disagree with that. Frankly, the biggest advantage that Kansas over UConn has is time - it has been playing football in a "power conference" for over 100 years. I've said before here that a major disadvantage that UConn has is the reality that it has only been playing FBS football for just over a decade. I know that a lot of people here don't want to believe that this is supposed to be an issue (or should only be a minor concern compared to market size, etc.), but it simply is when you're dealing with conferences and schools with tradition-bound old money mindsets. Kansas has always been in the old money football club (and they're literally the oldest of the old money when it comes to basketball considering that James Naismith started its program), whereas UConn (whether rightly or wrongly) is perceived to be "new money" in a club where old money rules. The only solution to that problem is time.

Ironically, the league that would probably care the least about the old money/new money dichotomy is the Big 12: they need better demographics and geographic continuity overall. Did you know that Storrs, CT really isn't materially farther away from the Iowa/Kansas portion of the Big 12 than Provo, UT? People seem to perceive that BYU is close to the Big 12 footprint (possibly because the Eastern media seems to think everything west of the Mississippi River is all one compact region), yet it would be as much as a geographic outlier as UConn would be in that league... and UConn would be less so if it's paired with Cincinnati in an expansion that brackets West Virginia.

The Big Ten and ACC certainly make more sense for UConn, but those leagues just aren't expanding for the foreseeable future. UConn can make a play for the Big 12, but it needs to battle the perception that (1) it's too much of a geographic outlier (where the response from UConn supporters should be to check where BYU is located on a map) and (2) it's too much of a newbie in football (which is tougher to overcome without the benefit of time, but the school should be showing clearly how it's investing in power conference-level football).

The big thing is the market.
If Kansas has a market that translates into $$$, UConn's is even bigger. Money talks.
As for conferences, heck, the ACC is even further away from Kansas.

 

[upstater]

The B1G or PAC or SEC would jump at KU in a second, not only for the other attributes they possess, but also to try to lure OU and/or Texas with them.

This seems crazy to me. Hello, Kansas was available. No one jumped on them. Not long ago we had idiot Catholic school BE members that didn't want to associate with the B12 leftovers. Kansas St. was not the hangup with Kansas and the B1G.

 

[pj]

The B12 is unstable and destined to split up. It would be a fine resting place for UConn since we would be looking to leave at the same time as the major B12 schools. Travel isn't too big a deal, relative to competing possibilities like Cincy, BYU, or USF, since there are direct flights between Hartford/NYC/Boston and Austin/Dallas/KC. UCF/Orlando has better travel than UConn/Hartford thanks to Disney World travelers, otherwise UConn compares well for travel. UConn would give larger markets to the B12 than any other add. I don't think it's an impossible sell, but I think the B12's lack of a clean network TV partner (split between Fox and ESPN) makes expansion negotiations difficult. I doubt they expand at all.

 

[pj]

This seems crazy to me. Hello, Kansas was available. No one jumped on them. Not long ago we had idiot Catholic school BE members that didn't want to associate with the B12 leftovers. Kansas St. was not the hangup with Kansas and the B1G.

Networks have become bigger revenue sources now, and basketball rises in salience in a network due to the year-round content. Also, the opportunities for eastern expansion have been clarified. I think Kansas would attract an invite.

Gordon Gee indicated the B1G was having regrets about rejecting Missouri. I think Kansas would also be more attractive to them now than in the past.

 

[Dooley]

This seems crazy to me. Hello, Kansas was available. No one jumped on them. Not long ago we had idiot Catholic school BE members that didn't want to associate with the B12 leftovers. Kansas St. was not the hangup with Kansas and the B1G.

The old BE had as much chance at luring Texas or OU as I have at luring Kate Upton or Jennifer Lawrence. The B1G, SEC or PAC on the other hand, has a very good chance.

 

[Dooley]

The B12 is unstable and destined to split up. It would be a fine resting place for UConn since we would be looking to leave at the same time as the major B12 schools. Travel isn't too big a deal, relative to competing possibilities like Cincy, BYU, or USF, since there are direct flights between Hartford/NYC/Boston and Austin/Dallas/KC. UCF/Orlando has better travel than UConn/Hartford thanks to Disney World travelers, otherwise UConn compares well for travel. UConn would give larger markets to the B12 than any other add. I don't think it's an impossible sell, but I think the B12's lack of a clean network TV partner (split between Fox and ESPN) makes expansion negotiations difficult. I doubt they expand at all.

Let's hypothetically say that KU, Texas and OU do split from the B12 and can't/won't/don't take their in-state brothers with them. Combining the best of the AAC (UCONN, Cinci, UCF, Houston, USF) with BYU and the B12 leftovers (K State, Iowa St, Baylor, Texas Tech, WVU, Ok State, TCU) would be 1000x better than what we are currently stuck playing in. In my opinion, it would also be enough to retain "Power" status and a good TV deal (around $20M/yr per school I would think) based on the quality of the schools and available markets.

 

[The Funster]

B12 travel would not be all that much different than the AAC is as long as Cincy gets invited. What I wonder is what is the future of the P5. I just don't see the long term sense of the P5 breaking away and then continuing to negotiate separate conference TV deals/networks. It just seems that at some point someone is going to say, "Hey, if we bargain collectively as one unit as opposed to 5 separate conferences we can get even more money." If that happens one could expect to see 4 or 5 conferences of equal size which would some of the old conference ties would be broken even more. One could speculate that some B12 teams would have to go the PAC with the rest going to another conference.

 

[pj]

Let's hypothetically say that KU, Texas and OU do split from the B12 and can't/won't/don't take their in-state brothers with them. Combining the best of the AAC (UCONN, Cinci, UCF, Houston, USF) with BYU and the B12 leftovers (K State, Iowa St, Baylor, Texas Tech, WVU, Ok State, TCU) would be 1000x better than what we are currently stuck playing in. In my opinion, it would also be enough to retain "Power" status and a good TV deal (around $20M/yr per school I would think) based on the quality of the schools and available markets.

I was with you until the $20 mn per year. $10 mn might be feasible. "Power" status - I think the major conferences and networks would like to define "power" conferences as those having auto bids to the national playoffs. To achieve that, the playoffs will have to expand to 6 (2 teams with byes) or 8. If it's 8, that league would have a shot at power status. If 6, no -- they would do 4 champs plus 2 at large.

 

[pj]

B12 travel would not be all that much different than the AAC is as long as Cincy gets invited. What I wonder is what is the future of the P5. I just don't see the long term sense of the P5 breaking away and then continuing to negotiate separate conference TV deals/networks. It just seems that at some point someone is going to say, "Hey, if we bargain collectively as one unit as opposed to 5 separate conferences we can get even more money." If that happens one could expect to see 4 or 5 conferences of equal size which would some of the old conference ties would be broken even more. One could speculate that some B12 teams would have to go the PAC with the rest going to another conference.

An NFL-style football deal, take it or leave it, all of college football, would indeed get more money. ESPN would love that too, as it would win the contract. But, it's too difficult to get there from here. To make it happen, the first thing you would see is all the conferences synchronizing their TV deals to expire at the same time.